ERE1.6 | Enhancing resilience of ecosystems under pressures
Enhancing resilience of ecosystems under pressures
Co-organized by BG8
Convener: Woo-Kyun Lee | Co-conveners: Florian Kraxner, Evgenios Agathokleous, Yowhan Son, Zhaozhong Feng, Thuy Nguyen, Cholho Song
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–17:45 (CEST)
 
Room 0.16
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X4
Posters virtual
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X4
Orals |
Wed, 14:00
Thu, 10:45
Thu, 14:00
The importance of resilient ecosystems has been addressed by their diversity and increasing anthropogenic pressures. Under climate change, greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants affect ecosystems and material cycles such as energy, water, carbon, nitrogen, and other nutrients. These lead to many disasters and conflicts among decision-makers in dealing with the development, restoration, and conservation of ecosystems, resulting in imbalances in the water, food, and energy nexus within agricultural and natural ecosystems. Therefore, we need to understand the mechanisms of current material cycles in ecosystems, promote adaptation to pressures and enhance resilience capacity and ecosystem services to reduce related GHG emissions. This session aims to understand the current capacity of resilient ecosystems, share cutting-edge case studies, and further develop the understanding of systems analysis for ecosystem material cycles. This session also covers all aspects of adaptation of agricultural and natural ecosystems to climate change and pollution, including plant-level, field-level, and ecosystem-level methodologies for adaptation.

Orals: Wed, 17 Apr | Room 0.16

Chairpersons: Woo-Kyun Lee, Florian Kraxner, Yowhan Son
14:00–14:05
14:05–14:15
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EGU24-22025
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Christian Folberth, Peter Burek, Taher Kahil, Florian Kraxner, Michael Kuhn, Amanda Palazzo, Stefan Wrzaczek, and Dilek Yildiz

Global change encompasses on the environmental side components such as climate change, land degradation and pollution; and in the societal domain socioeconomic changes such as demography, economic development, and equality. This nexus is primarily driven by human activities and affects outcomes relevant for peoples’ well-being and viability through a network of interactions and feedbacks. Due to its strong influence on land surface and land-atmosphere processes and as a basis for food security and income, agriculture and rural livelihoods are at the heart of global change.

Despite the close entanglement of rural populations, livelihoods, and agricultural production, their integrated assessment is so far hardly considered in large-scale and global foresight studies. Instead, most large-scale research on consequences of global change and potential solutions is still monothematic or combines few of the above elements.

Integration across disciplines is taking place only to a limited extent, typically with static combinations of model outcomes. E.g., integrated land use models typically combine yield projections for changing climate with a priori projections of economic and population change. Other examples are the combination of independent projections of crop productivity and water availability to analyze adaptation potentials within the biophysical domain or across scientific domains the estimation of migration driven by changes in crop productivity and water availability. Importantly, both mono- and interdisciplinary studies are most often confined to business-as-usual scenarios or trajectories along shared socioeconomic pathways. Consequently, they do not capture feedbacks involving the human dimension and potentials for adaptation, and therefore lack outcomes that can inform on options for local and regional decision-making covering the water-food-population nexus.

The state-of-the-art highlights a concerning lack of integrated approaches to model global change impacts and feedbacks across environmental and socioeconomic domains. Based on own research and literature that characterizes interactions in the water-food-population nexus under global change pressures and existing model types and approaches, we propose herein a platform for the quantitative integrated modelling and assessment of global change impacts and adaptation covering food and water security, land use, demography, migration, and adaptive capacity.

Applications of such a modelling platform may address a wide range of pressing questions including shocks, their cascading effects and ultimate feedbacks (e.g. food security through output and input trade during and after Ukraine war; other historic shocks such as financial crisis; etc.); slow-onset global change impacts and adaptation; or transversal achievement of SDGs; and eventually serve as a first step towards the modelling of societal catastrophic change scenarios.

How to cite: Folberth, C., Burek, P., Kahil, T., Kraxner, F., Kuhn, M., Palazzo, A., Wrzaczek, S., and Yildiz, D.: Towards a better integration of the human and biophysical dimensions in global change modelling, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-22025, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-22025, 2024.

14:15–14:25
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EGU24-7063
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On-site presentation
Joongbin Lim, Chaeyeon Kim, Jong-Hwan Son, Taejung Kim, Sooahm RLee, Junghee Lee, Kyoungmin Kim, and Seunghyun Lee

The agricultural and forestry satellite, scheduled for launch in 2025, is a satellite being jointly developed by the Ministry of Science and ICT, the Rural Development Administration, and the Korea Forest Service of South Korea. Prior to its launch, technological developments have been made to ensure the positional accuracy of the agricultural and forestry satellite. For the geometric calibration of the satellite, a total of 4,650 precise image reference points have been established across the Korean Peninsula. These established precise image reference points have been verified to have a positional error of less than 1 meter based on field survey results. Utilizing this, the Rational Function Model (RFM) was corrected, determining the optimal parameters with six coefficients as suitable RFM correction coefficients for the precise geometric establishment of simulated images of the agricultural and forestry satellite. Subsequently, using the Digital Elevation Model for orthorectification, a final positional error of within 1 pixel (less than 5 meters) was confirmed.

How to cite: Lim, J., Kim, C., Son, J.-H., Kim, T., RLee, S., Lee, J., Kim, K., and Lee, S.: Current Status of Pre-Calibration Techniques for Enhancing the Positional Accuracy of the Agricultural and Forestry Satellite, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7063, 2024.

14:25–14:35
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EGU24-18192
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Analysis of Carbon Balance Patterns and Driving Factors in China’s Mega Cities – A Case Study of Shenzhen
(withdrawn after no-show)
shishuai Yang
14:35–14:45
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EGU24-16948
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On-site presentation
Yujeong Jeong, Sujong Lee, Mina Hong, Youngjin Ko, Hyun-Woo Jo, and Woo-Kyun Lee

To achieve the national carbon neutrality goal by 2050, it is crucial to be spatially strategic. Understanding the spatial distribution of carbon balance in different levels of spatial scales from global/continental scales to urban, and province/state is essential. This paper aims to estimate the spatial distribution of carbon balance in South Korea using an integrated carbon balance estimation model and to identify the disparity of carbon-emission characteristics determined by three different spatial divisions ¾ metropolitan and basic local governments, and town-level (eup/myeon/dong&li). Two-step ridge regression model using residuals was established based on land cover maps, population maps, and energy production data to analyse the distribution of carbon emissions. The distribution of carbon sequestration was calculated using the Korean forest growth model (KO-G-Dynamic model). The results from each model were calibrated and validated by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory of basic local governments. The carbon balance was quantified by integrating the results of carbon emission and carbon sequestration. Surprisingly, the results showed that several cities, especially along the biggest mountain range in South Korea, have already achieved regional carbon neutrality. This is particularly true when the spatial scale is below a metropolitan government level. Additionally, the study found that the narrower the spatial scale of distribution becomes, the greater the number of urban/provinces with a carbon balance under zero. Obviously, carbon-neutral regions are characterized by low energy and industrial facilities and high forest density and, in most of the top emitting regions, vice versa. This study provides insights into the methodology for researching the spatial distribution of carbon balance. It also highlights the need for constructing carbon reduction pathways and strategies that reflect the regionality of carbon balance in multi-level districts. With further development of the study, the result could be used as scientific evidence for the effective fulfillment of regional carbon neutrality.

How to cite: Jeong, Y., Lee, S., Hong, M., Ko, Y., Jo, H.-W., and Lee, W.-K.: Are There Carbon-Neutral Cities in South Korea: Using Residual Modeling on Different Spatial Scales, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16948, 2024.

14:45–14:55
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EGU24-13861
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Sera Jo, Yong-Seok Kim, Jina Hur, Kyo-moon Shim, Seung Gil Hong, Min-gu Kang, and Eung-sup Kim

The changes in rice climatic yield potential (CYP) across the Korean Peninsula are evaluated based on the new climate change scenario produced by the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences with 18 ensemble members at 1 km resolution under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. To overcome the data availability, we utilize solar radiation for CYP instead of sunshine duration which is relatively uncommon in the climate prediction field. The result show that maximum CYP(CYPmax) decreased, and the optimal heading date is progressively delayed under warmer temperature conditions compared to the current climate. This trend is particularly pronounced in the SSP5-85 scenario, indicating faster warming, except for the northeastern mountainous regions of North Korea. This shows the benefits of lower emission scenarios and pursuing more efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, the CYPmax shows a wide range of feasible futures, which shows inherent uncertainties in future climate projections and the risks when analyzing a single model or a small number of model results, highlighting the importance of the ensemble approach. 
This work was supported by a grant (no. RS-2021-RD009055) from the Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea

How to cite: Jo, S., Kim, Y.-S., Hur, J., Shim, K., Hong, S. G., Kang, M., and Kim, E.: Assessment of Rice Yield Potential changes over Korean Peninsula under climate change with 1-km high resolution SSP-RCP scenarios , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13861, 2024.

14:55–15:05
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EGU24-16379
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On-site presentation
Sujeong Kang and Junga Lee

The risk of wildfires is increasing due to rising temperatures and worsening dry conditions resulting from climate change (Westerling et al., 2008; Vilà-Vilardell et al., 2020). Human activities, driven by urbanization and population growth, contribute to the occurrence of wildfires. As wildfires are a consequence of the complex interplay of various factors, an integrated understanding of the social and ecological systems influencing wildfires is crucial for protecting human communities and preserving the natural environment. Particularly, the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), an area where urban and natural landscapes and vegetation coexist or are adjacent, represents a space where the interaction between human activities and natural systems is pronounced (Stewart et al., 2007). A specific and clear analysis and management of the WUI’s social-ecological system is necessary due to the severe damage caused by urban wildfires.

There is a growing awareness of the necessity to establish effective prevention and management strategies to protect urban systems. However, there is a lack of research on social-ecological systems over time, such as before and after wildfires in the WUI. Therefore, the objective of this study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the socio-ecological system of urban WUI areas, with a focus on identifying and evaluating the factors influencing the resilience of these systems. By examining the interactions within the WUI’s socio-ecological framework, the research aims to propose strategies for enhancing the capacity of urban areas to adapt to and recover from environmental disturbances, thereby contributing to the development of robust and resilient urban social-ecological systems.

To define and categorize socio-ecological systems, a spatial analysis of wildfire-prone areas was employed and to identify and evaluate the factors affecting the resilience of the system in response to wildfires, system analysis tools and models were utilized.

Building upon this study, future research will employ the Urban Resilience Index classification to derive strategies for each type of green infrastructure planning based on the 4Rs of resilience (robustness, rapidity, redundancy, and resourcefulness) to improve urban socio-ecological resilience for wildfire response in urban Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI). The results can be utilized to develop a green infrastructure planning decision support system.

References

Westerling, A. L., & Bryant, B. P. (2008). Climate change and wildfire in California. Climatic Change, 87(Suppl 1), 231-249.

Stewart, S. I., Radeloff, V. C., Hammer, R. B., & Hawbaker, T. J. (2007). Defining the Wildland-Urban Interface. Journal of Forestry, 105(4), 201-207.

Sullivan, A., Baker, E., & Kurvits, T. (2022). Spreading like wildfire: The rising threat of extraordinary landscape fires.

※ This work was supported by the Core Research Institute Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (NRF-2021R1A6A1A10045235).

How to cite: Kang, S. and Lee, J.: Analysis of Influencing Factors to Enhance Resilience of Urban Social-Ecological Systems in Urban Wildfire Response, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16379, 2024.

15:05–15:15
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EGU24-20157
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On-site presentation
Jiangong Bi, Sangchul Lee, and Junga Lee

Due to climate change, abnormal weather conditions such as floods, droughts, heavy snow, and heatwaves are escalating globally. Recent climate observations and model predictions indicate a trend toward more frequent and intense extreme climate events in the near future, attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. When floods occur, they simplify the habitats of ecosystems, leading to a reduction in diversity and water quality pollution. Basin ecosystems play a crucial role in carbon absorption, mitigation, and providing habitats for plants and animals. Therefore, it is imperative that plants, soil, and wetlands within the watershed ecosystem absorb and sequester carbon from the atmosphere to decrease greenhouse gas concentrations. Consequently, there is a necessity for research on decision support tools capable of identifying and analyzing the factors influencing carbon circulation during a flood.

 

The primary objective of this study is to develop a decision support tool for green infrastructure (GI) planning in watershed ecosystems to enhance resilience against climate change. The tool will help identify and analyze factors affecting the carbon cycle during flood events and enable the creation of GIs that support the carbon cycle.

 

The expected results from the study combine positive factors that can lead to various positive and combining factors, so future research can create scenarios through combinations of factors. The scenarios created can result in GIs that can perform ad hoc tasks by choosing more efficient configurations.

 

 

References

Michael W. Strohbach, Eric Arnold, Dagmar Haase. The carbon footprint of urban green space—A life cycle approach. Landscape and Urban Planning, Volume 105, Issue 4, 30 April 2012, Pages 445

 

※ This work was supported by the Core Research Institute Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (NRF-2021R1A6A1A10045235).

※ This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry &Technology Institute (KEITI) through "Climate Change R&D Project for New Climate Regime.", funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (2022003570003)

How to cite: Bi, J., Lee, S., and Lee, J.: A Green Infrastructure Approach through Carbon Cycle Analysis and Decision Support, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20157, 2024.

15:15–15:25
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EGU24-18453
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On-site presentation
Mina Hong, Jinwon Son, Moonil Kim, YoungJin Ko, and Woo-Kyun Lee

In recent years, global climate change has emerged as a critical issue, exerting widespread impacts across various sectors. In response, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has emphasized the urgency of preparing for a 2℃ temperature rise by focusing on greenhouse gas reduction strategies and the vital role of forests as carbon sinks. Aligning with international efforts, South Korea has formulated the "2050 Carbon Neutrality Strategy" and presented corresponding strategies in the forestry sector. This research utilizes the Korean Dynamic Forest Growth Model to explore forest management pathways aimed at achieving carbon neutrality through the aspects of sequestration, storage, and substitution (3S). The study incorporates climate change scenarios and forest policies to select appropriate management pathways. The assessment of various scenarios revealed that the combination of the SSP1 climate change scenario, clear-cutting, thinning of approximately 200,000 hectares, reforestation with suitable species, and ensuring a maximum forest road accessibility of 1 km produced significant and meaningful results across all three aspects of forest management (sequestration, storage, and substitution). As a result, sequestration of 28.49 million tCO2 yr-1, a storage of 2.1 billion tCO2 yr-1, and the substitution 7.92 million m3 of harvested wood products (HWP) in the 2050. Furthermore, the 3S forest management approach is expected to contribute to mitigating tree-age imbalances and provide resilience against the impacts of climate change. In conclusion, this study is meaningful in that it suggested a spatio-temporal forest management path by reflecting the environmental characteristics of Korea for achieving carbon neutrality. This is considered to be able to contribute to local government carbon neutrality achievement plans and national policies.

 

How to cite: Hong, M., Son, J., Kim, M., Ko, Y., and Lee, W.-K.: Analysis of South Korea's 3S Forest Management Pathways for Carbon Neutrality Achievement, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18453, 2024.

15:25–15:35
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EGU24-19422
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On-site presentation
Shoreline Change and Carbon Emission Analysis for Sustainable Coastal Area Management
(withdrawn)
Jeongwoo Han, Kihwan Song, and Jinhyung Chon
15:35–15:45
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EGU24-1717
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
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Xiang Liu, Bowen Chu, Rong Tang, Yifan Liu, Xing Li, Jingfeng Xiao, Ankur Desai, and Haikun Wang

China, with nearly 20% of the world's population, achieves self-sufficiency in major grain production using only about 10% of the global arable land. To further ensure food security in China, it is crucial to gain a deep understanding of the driving factors behind grain production. Climate change, water scarcity, and air pollution pose serious threats to food production. Air quality in China is among the poorest in the world, thus quantifying its impact on grain production not only holds significance for maintaining its food security but also provides valuable insights into future air quality management policies. Here, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the impact of aerosols and ozone on crop growth by integrating long-term, high spatial-temporal resolution remote sensing SIF data, crop planting information, and nationwide air pollution concentration data using nonlinear functional relationships and a two-way fixed-effects statistical model. The results show a consistent negative impact of ozone pollution on crop growth, while the effect of aerosols is varied by crop type and geographic location. By establishing a quantitative response relationship between crop growth and pollutant concentrations, we found that when China reaches the standard of 35 µg m-3 PM2.5, the average yields of corn, rice, and wheat nationwide will change by 0.45 ± 0.8%, 0.70 ± 0.22%, and −5.28 ± 2.97%, respectively. At the same time, reaching a warm-season ozone concentration of 60 µg m-3 in China will result in average national yield increases of 7.40 ± 1.32%, 3.40 ± 0.56%, and 8.71 ± 1.85% for corn, rice, and wheat, respectively. If China simultaneously meets both air pollution standards, the average daily per capita calorie intake of the three major crops will increase by 4.51%. Finally, our study suggests that, compared to reducing PM2.5, reducing ozone can more effectively increase domestic grain supply and further maintain China’s food security.

How to cite: Liu, X., Chu, B., Tang, R., Liu, Y., Li, X., Xiao, J., Desai, A., and Wang, H.: Air quality improvements can strengthen China's food security, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1717, 2024.

Coffee break
Chairpersons: Evgenios Agathokleous, Zhaozhong Feng, Thuy Nguyen
16:15–16:25
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EGU24-20208
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On-site presentation
Won Joon Lee, Seongwoo Jeon, and Junga Lee

Abstract

The expansion of impervious surfaces resulting from urbanization induces alterations in the natural water cycle system, culminating in urban flooding. Persistent flood damage arises from issues such as the failure to designate flood-prone areas despite receiving flood reports or the exclusion from flood-prone zones due to complaints. Both the central government and local authorities are taking measures to designate and manage flood-prone areas, recognizing the necessity to address this issue not only from an ecological standpoint but also considering social aspects, including the real estate value of the region and the effort and cost of flood damage recovery. Furthermore, flood resilience should be a central consideration, aiming to identify existing problems through the virtuous cycle process of flood damage, both upstream and downstream, and working towards recovery or improvement to a state superior to pre-flood conditions.

This study's objective is to redefine the criteria for green infrastructure planning in flood-prone zones, exploring interrelated factors influencing urban water systems and identifying synergistic solutions to enhance resilience. The application of systems thinking involves four integral stages: dynamic thinking, causal thinking, closed-loop thinking, and strategic discovery. These stages collectively establish a systematic dynamic loop. To construct this loop within the complexity of a water circulation system, initial attention must be given to discharge management. Ensuring a robust water cycle necessitates the equitable distribution of runoff across processes such as evaporation, filtration, infiltration, and groundwater recharge. Secondly, green infrastructure design should leverage technologies that harness natural mechanisms, enhancing the cyclical movement of materials within the ecosystem. This involves strategic infrastructure planning that minimizes alterations to topography, preserving the natural functions of the water cycle while allowing for flexible application tailored to ecosystem requirements. These green infrastructure characteristics, effects, and plans are summarized as variables. Thirdly, the dynamic loop is constructed with consideration of the summarized variables. The final stage of the process integrates flood risk management within a community flood resilience framework. By cycling through the stages of learning, prevention, resistance, response, and recovery, the objective is to minimize damage caused by floods and effectively respond to unexpected floods due to climate change.

As a result, seven derived criteria include land use type identification, target site characteristics analysis, detailed survey, water circulation goal selection, design criteria and layout strategy, spatial suitability evaluation, and water cycle change verification. Using these criteria, the ultimate goal of this study is to identify suitable green infrastructure locations and create a monitoring map for a healthy water cycle. The study aims to contribute to flood prevention measures in flood-prone areas by analyzing the impact of green infrastructure on emissions.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry &Technology Institute (KEITI) through "Climate Change R&D Project for New Climate Regime.", funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (2022003570003).

References

EPA, U. (2007). Reducing stormwater costs through low impact development (LID) strategies and practices. United States Environmental Protection Agency, Nonpoint Source Control Branch (4503T).

How to cite: Lee, W. J., Jeon, S., and Lee, J.: Green infrastructure planning criteria for flood-prone areas to restore water cycle system and improve flood resilience , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20208, 2024.

16:25–16:35
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EGU24-18916
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Mikyeong Tae, Min Kim, and Jinhyung Chon

Mangroves, a form of blue carbon, encompass approximately 1,054,900 hectares globally, with Vietnam possessing 75,900 hectares, representing around 7% of the total area. Beyond providing essential resources such as food, timber, and habitat, mangroves confer diverse ecosystem services, including coastal erosion mitigation and carbon sequestration while attenuating wave energy. Nevertheless, the pervasive impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities are precipitating a reduction in mangrove coverage, giving rise to socio-ecological challenges, including biodiversity loss, escalated carbon emissions, and heightened vulnerability to severe flooding. Efforts are underway to address this predicament; however, accurate assessment remains challenging due to the intricate nature of mangrove habitats. Survey-derived data suffers from accuracy limitations, necessitating comprehensive research utilizing satellite imagery for efficient identification within a condensed timeframe, employing a systems thinking approach to understand complex ecosystem services holistically.

This research aims to detect changes in the area of mangrove forests in Vietnam using Landsat satellite imagery from 2010 to 2020, the initial implementation period of the Vietnam Forestry Development Strategy, and to analyze the impact of these changes on ecosystem services.

To achieve this, high-resolution (30cm) satellite images are utilized to calculate specific vegetation indices such as NDVI, NDWI, and SAVI in QGIS software.

 These indices are instrumental in detecting alterations in mangrove coverage throughout Vietnam. Additionally, this study employs systems thinking to construct a causal chain map that illustrates how changes in the mangrove area impact ecosystem services within Vietnam.

Satellite imagery was harnessed for GIS analysis to evaluate the ongoing status of Vietnam's mangrove forest area over time. The alterations in the area were quantified by grid partitioning, and causal loop diagrams were utilized to comprehend how modifications in mangrove areas affect ecosystem services such as coastal protection, water purification, habitat provision, and food supply. These changes engender trade-offs.

This study is significant as it utilizes high-resolution satellite data to quantify the change in Vietnam's mangrove forest area over time. It also underscores the impact of these changes on ecosystem services from a systems-thinking perspective. Moreover, deducing the ecosystem service structure of mangrove forests from causal chain maps can serve as a cornerstone for formulating policies aimed at safeguarding mangrove forests for decision-makers in Vietnam and other countries with similar ecosystems. Additionally, exploring the potential of mangroves as blue carbon sources can contribute significantly to carbon neutrality and planning.

Acknowldegemt

This research was supported by "Development of living shoreline technology based on blue carbon science toward climate change adaptation" of Korea Institute of Marine Science & Technology Promotion (KIMST) funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (KIMST-20220526)

How to cite: Tae, M., Kim, M., and Chon, J.: Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Mangrove Forest Changes on Ecosystem Services in Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18916, 2024.

16:35–16:45
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EGU24-1992
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Marie Marteau-Bazouni, Marie-Hélène Jeuffroy, and Nicolas Guilpart

Diversifying cropping systems with grain legumes has been identified as a key measure to achieve the objectives set by European policies in terms of sustainability and protein self-sufficiency. Because grain legumes are sensitive to numerous biotic and abiotic stresses, expanding their production area in the context of climate change will require the implementation of adaptation strategies.

The objectives of this study are to shed light on what knowledge is needed by stakeholders to adapt grain legume cultivation to climate change and to assess matches and mismatches between these needs and crop-climate modelling. To this aim, we performed (i) a systematic literature review (n=83) to summarise recent simulation studies that assessed the impact of climate change and adaptation on grain legume performances in Europe, and (ii) interviews with 30 stakeholders involved in different stages of the value chain in France (cooperatives, seed breeders, extension services) to identify their needs.

Stakeholders’ information needs could be grouped into three categories: (i) information on profitability (including crop yield, pre-crop effect, and economic margin) and risks associated with growing grain legumes (including yield stability and risk of crop failure) and comparison of these variables with major crops like cereals, (ii) agroclimatic indicators such as rainfall distribution, heat waves, and frost days, that can be used to adjust crop management and identify climatic constraints to the introduction of new grain legume species (e.g., chickpea and soybean), and (iii) climate change impacts on diseases, pests, and their natural enemies. The appropriate time and spatial scales at which this information is relevant depend on the stakeholder. Stakeholders supporting farmers (e.g., extension services) expressed a need for short-term (up to 10 years) and local information, whereas cooperatives and stakeholders engaged in R&D were also interested in medium-term (up to 30 years) information at multiple spatial scales (from the cooperative’s supply area to the national and European scale).

When comparing these needs with our literature review, several mismatches were identified. Although stakeholders expressed a need for short to medium-term information, the reviewed studies focused mainly on the second half of the 21st century. The predominance of global-scale studies (63% of studies) contrasted with the need for local and regional data. We also highlight a lack of simulation studies assessing the impact of climate change on yield stability and economic indicators, especially relative to major crops like cereals. The impact of climate change on diseases, pests, and their natural enemies remains a blind spot, even though biotic pressure was identified as a growing concern for the stakeholders. Finally, although the majority of adaptation strategies identified by stakeholders (e.g., irrigation, changes in sowing date and density) have been studied in the literature, options such as substituting spring-sown crops with winter-sown crops and switching grain legume species have hardly been assessed (only one study).

Our results outline priority avenues for further research, considering the needs of stakeholders to support the development of grain legumes in Europe in the context of climate change.

How to cite: Marteau-Bazouni, M., Jeuffroy, M.-H., and Guilpart, N.: Assessing matches and mismatches between modelling and stakeholders’ needs to support the adaptation of grain legumes to climate change in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1992, 2024.

16:45–16:55
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EGU24-9018
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Georg Goldenits, Kevin Mallinger, Thomas Neubauer, and Edgar Weippl

Abstract

Digital Twins are becoming an increasingly researched area in agriculture due to the pressure on food security caused by growing population numbers and climate change. They provide a necessary push towards more efficient and sustainable agricultural methods to secure and increase crop yields.
Digital Twins often use Machine Learning, and more recently, deep learning methods in their architecture to process data and predict future outcomes based on input data. However, concerns about the trustworthiness of the output from deep learning models persist due to the lack of clarity regarding the reasoning behind their outputs.

In our work, we have developed crop rotation policies using explainable tabular reinforcement learning techniques. We have compared these policies to those generated by a deep Q-learning approach, using both five-step and seven-step rotations. The aim of the rotations is to maximise crop yields while maintaining a healthy nitrogen level in the soil and adhering to established planting rules. Crop yields may vary due to external factors such as weather patterns, so perturbations were added to the reward signal to account for these influences. The deployed explainable tabular reinforcement learning methods perform similarly to the deep Q-learning approach in terms of collected reward when the rewards are not perturbed. However, in the perturbed reward setting, robust tabular reinforcement learning methods outperform the deep learning approach while maintaining interpretable policies. By consulting with farmers and crop rotation experts, we demonstrate that the derived policies are reasonable and that the use of interpretable reinforcement learning has increased confidence in the resulting policies, thereby increasing the likelihood that farmers will adopt the suggested policies.


Keywords: Digital Twin, Reinforcement Learning, Explainable AI, Agriculture, Crop Rotation Planning, Climate Change, Food Security

How to cite: Goldenits, G., Mallinger, K., Neubauer, T., and Weippl, E.: Tabular Reinforcement learning for Robust, Explainable CropRotation Policies Matching Deep Reinforcement LearningPerformance, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9018, 2024.

16:55–17:05
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EGU24-10036
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Evelin Pihlap, Noemma Olagaray, Tobias Klöffel, Michael D. Masters, Ilsa B. Kantola, David J. Beerling, and Noah J. Planavsky

Enhanced mineral weathering is a nature-based solution to reduce atmospheric and soil CO2 concentrations in agricultural settings. Spreading finely grained basalt on the soil leads to subsequent chemical reactions that alters soil properties by changing soil pH, nutrient availability and particle-size distribution. Changes in these soil properties activate soil feedback mechanisms such as shifts in soil biogeochemical reactions or plant growth dynamics. Several studies have examined changes in pH and CEC after basalt application; however, basalt application may have an additional influence on the soil’s structural quality and the quantity of soil organic carbon (OC). In this study, we used a long-term field trial of basalt application at the University of Illinois Energy Farm (Illinois, USA) to elucidate changes in soil structure and OC storage. The field study was launched in 2016 using a randomized block design consisting of control (n=4, no basalt application), basalt (n=4), and lime (n=3) treatments. The sampling campaign was conducted in 2022 and in each field, we sampled with stainless steel cylinders (250 cm3) at depths of 1—6 cm and 15—20 cm. All samples were analyzed for nutrient content, OC concentration, pH, CEC and select samples were analyzed for soil water characteristic curves and aggregate-size distribution.

Basalt and lime application had a significant effect on soil pH, Ca concentration and the dominance of Ca2+ as an exchangeable cation, all which reflect evidence of increased soil structural quality. Indeed, soil structure, as quantified from the soil water characteristic curves using the concept of relative entropy (the Kullback-Leibler divergence), showed clear signs of enhancement after lime application. However, this was less evident for the basalt treatment. Despite improvements in soil structure, there were no effects on OC storage in either of the treatments. Aggregate characterization for OC concentration showed that the depth stratification had a greater role in carbon protection than the soil treatment itself, where the highest OC enrichment (EOC>1) was observed at the lower sampling depth of 15—20 cm. The organo-mineral association in the finest fraction was not affected by the treatment because neither the aggregate size class distribution nor OC accumulation in the finest fraction differed among the control, lime, and basalt treatments. Enhanced mineral weathering improves soil nutrient content, pH, and, potentially, soil structure; however, these changes do not directly result in higher OC storage, which underlines the complex nature of OC dynamics.

How to cite: Pihlap, E., Olagaray, N., Klöffel, T., Masters, M. D., Kantola, I. B., Beerling, D. J., and Planavsky, N. J.: Effects of enhanced mineral weathering on soil structure and organic carbon storage, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10036, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10036, 2024.

17:05–17:15
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EGU24-19001
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Hojun Choi, Min Kim, and Jinhyung Chon

Renewable energies, particularly solar and wind power, are gaining prominence in the shift towards a carbon-neutral climate. however, challenges for wind power include ecological disruption, coastal landscape degradation, and visual impact due to offshore turbine installation. Technological limitations currently dictate offshore wind turbines' placement 10 to 30 kilometers inland, raising concerns about light environmental changes affecting nearby coastal areas. This raises concerns about the potential impact of light environmental changes such as the effects of aviation obstruction lights on wind turbines and blade movements on inland areas close to the coastline.  Therefore, developing offshore wind farm plans analyzing the impact of light environment changes and proposing mitigation measures is crucial.
In this study, we analyze the light environmental impact of wind power and propose mitigation measures to minimize its effects on the planned offshore wind farms in the South Sea's Aphae area, surrounded on three sides by sea and offering favorable conditions for marine renewable energy development, and the West Sea's Jangbogo area in South Korea.
The assessment utilized 2022 Day and Night Band (DNB) satellite imagery from the VIIRS sensor to evaluate light pollution. QGIS was subsequently employed to analyze visible frequency, turbine shadow impact range, and distance from the power generation site, resulting in a light environment value assessment map. Key points were identified on the map, and the study further examined the influence of turbine blade movements on aviation obstruction lights and shadow flickering using QGIS and WINDPRO.
As a result of measurements using VIIRS satellite images, the light pollution levels at the Aphae and Jangbogo sites were found to be approximately 0.631542 × 10-9 W/cm²sr and 0.38 × 10-9 W/cm²sr, respectively. In Aphae, the impact of light pollution was generally minimal, less than 0.002 cd/m², but it did have an impact in the northern coastal area. Jang Bogo measured less than 0.002 cd/m², indicating a low impact on island residents.
As a result of light pollution analysis, it was found that shadow flickering occurs for 30 to 60 minutes a day for more than 120 days a year in the northern coastal area of Aphae. Jangbogo showed very limited shadow flickering, less than 10 hours per year and less than 10 minutes per day in certain areas. The impact of light pollution is expected to be minimal in Jang Bogo, and mitigation measures are needed to alleviate pressure damage. Recommendations may include adjustments to the layout of offshore wind farms or changes to the coordination of offshore wind operations.
This study is significant in analyzing the impact of light environmental changes caused by offshore wind power on inland areas and proposing mitigation measures. Furthermore, the findings of this research can be applicable to environmental studies for the development of offshore wind farms in other regions in the future.

Acknowledgement

This research was supported by “Development of Advanced Science and Technology for Marine Environmental Impact Assessment” of Korea Institute of Marine Science & Technology Promotion (KIMST) funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (20210427)

How to cite: Choi, H., Kim, M., and Chon, J.: Assessing Light Environmental Impact in Offshore Wind Farm: A Case Study of Aphae and Jangbogo Areas in South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19001, 2024.

17:15–17:25
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EGU24-1249
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Yujie Yan and Yiben Cheng

The Ulan Buh Desert, as one of China's eight significant deserts, is situated in the country's northwestern region and encompasses a diverse array of landscapes, including various desert types, vegetation, water bodies, and other landforms. This diversity is crucial for the ecological integrity and safety of the Yellow River Basin. The desert is notably constrained by water availability, and there has been a notable expansion in the degree of human activities, particularly regarding agricultural development, in the area.

Over the past 32 years, studies tracking the temporal and spatial variations of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Ulan Buh Desert have revealed a consistent increase in vegetative cover. Through the analysis of drivers such as climate change and human activity, it has been determined that temperature exhibits a positive correlation with NDVI, a relationship that has strengthened progressively over the years. Conversely, precipitation's influence on NDVI has been relatively insignificant. On the human activity front, contributions to NDVI changes have grown considerably, with such activities accounting for nearly a 50% increase in the vegetative index, suggesting that human interventions are increasingly aligning with ecological rehabilitation and positive environmental outcomes.

By scrutinizing the ecological consequences of both natural processes and human endeavors on the Ulan Buh Desert, insights gleaned can offer actionable recommendations for ecological restoration efforts, ensuring the sustainable management and recovery of this vital region.

How to cite: Yan, Y. and Cheng, Y.: Study of Changes in the Ulan Buh Desert under the Dual Impacts of Natural and Anthropogenic, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1249, 2024.

17:25–17:35
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EGU24-21387
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On-site presentation
Assessing the adaptability of maize phenology to climate change: The role of anthropogenic-management practices
(withdrawn after no-show)
Jiahao Chen, Yujie Liu, Jie Zhang, Ermei Zhang, and Junjie Liu
17:35–17:45
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EGU24-1146
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Praveen Kumar Vidyarthi, Pratham Arora, Nadège Blond, and Jean-Luc Ponche

The rapid expansion of wastewater treatment plants, aimed at mitigating global water stress, has significantly increased the energy demand. In India, the anticipated rise in sewage generation to treatment ratio from 46% to 80% by 2050 [1]. It is expected to further intensify the energy demand of treatment facilities to meet national standards. This required energy, predominantly in the form of electricity, primarily fulfill from coal-based thermal plants, consequently contributing to air pollution and emissions. Moreover, enhancing the oxygen supply in the biological process to improve treatment efficiency is projected to escalate direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. India's central electricity authority reports that the Indian grid produces around 0.91 kg CO2eq/kWh. A typical wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) demands an average of 185 kWh per million litres per day (MLD), resulting in approximately 168.35 kilograms of CO2 equivalent emissions per MLD [2]. Exploring alternative mitigation measures becomes imperative to address the energy demand from the grid. One approach involves employing mitigation technologies like gasification, anaerobic digestion, or pyrolysis to generate electricity from the sludge process. The study aims to estimate direct and indirect emissions from WWTPs by conducting a comprehensive life cycle assessment of various mitigation technologies. Notably, gasification, anaerobic digestion, and pyrolysis demonstrate potential emission reductions of around 81.8%, 57.2%, and 36.4%, respectively.

How to cite: Vidyarthi, P. K., Arora, P., Blond, N., and Ponche, J.-L.: Mitigation of GHG emission from the wastewater treatment plant: Life cycle assessment approach, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1146, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1146, 2024.

Posters on site: Thu, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X4

Display time: Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–Thu, 18 Apr, 12:30
Chairpersons: Cholho Song, Woo-Kyun Lee, Yowhan Son
X4.175
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EGU24-3774
Hoonjoo Yoon, Sujin Son, Inho Choi, Jungmin Jo, and Jiyoon Kwon

Pathogens are a factor that determines emergency responses for both the public and the safety of first responders due to their life-threatening properties. At the same time, pathogen contamination is difficult to detect, and specialized skills, tools, and procedures are needed to deal with it. Waterborne pathogen contamination accidents can occur anywhere and for a variety of reasons. Earthquakes can cause disruptions to the urban drinking water and wastewater networks, and can also be contaminated by accidents, malicious attacks, and illegal activities.

This study developed a decision support system for pathogen contamination management in disaster situations by utilizing GIS technology. The system will not only enhance the operational capability of early responders (FRs) and strengthen overall management, but also reduce errors when setting up new technologies.

The system integrates various technical means, such as collecting and analyzing satellite and drone-based water quality data and evaluating the severity of water pollution using social media data. This enables rapid and accurate detection and re-response of environmental risks. The system is interconnected with various sources through REST and open APIs, and effectively manages data by utilizing MongoDB and geo-server.

The study is expected to make a significant contribution to protecting the environment and human safety by providing an accurate risk assessment and providing the necessary technical means to respond to pathogen pollution in disaster situations. Industrial accidents can be reduced by increasing the capacity to respond to risks that have not been specifically identified and strengthening the ability to respond to disasters. The study will also provide essential data for policy-making and regulatory development aimed at protecting the environment. 

This research was supported by Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology(KIAT) grant funded by the Korea Government(MOTIE)  (P163300014, 2021 Industrial Technology International Cooperation Project - Horizon2020 Program)

 
 

How to cite: Yoon, H., Son, S., Choi, I., Jo, J., and Kwon, J.: Designing a GIS-based Decision Support System to protect environmental and human health by integrating spatial data, environmental information, and health data for informed decision-making., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3774, 2024.

X4.176
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EGU24-19777
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Highlight
Florian Kraxner, Dmitry Schepaschenko, Sabine Fuss, Andrey Krasovskiy, Anatoly Shvidenko, Georg Kindermann, Hyun-Woo Jo, and Woo-Kyun Lee

This study aims at identifying the carbon dioxide reduction (CDR) potential of large-scale and multi-purpose afforestation/reforestation at the global level with special emphasis on the Mid-Latitude Region (MLR). Applying a combined remote sensing/GIS approach coupled with biophysical forest and disturbance modeling under various climate change scenarios, we identify potential afforestation locations, inter-alia on abandoned agricultural land and on areas burnt from wild land fires. With the help of IIASA’s biophysical global forestry model (G4M), we calculate the associated land-based CDR potentials through carbon sequestration in afforested biomass and through climate risk-resilient and sustainable forest management dedicated to the supply of bioenergy plants coupled with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) facilities. Finally, three promising scenarios have been identified including I) afforestation; II) reforestation; and III) BECCS. In all scenarios, priority is put on sustainable forest management and nature/biodiversity conservation. Forest modeling results have been combined with recent data sets which have been overlayed in order to provide a unique basis to estimate the land-based CDR technologies’ potential to mitigate climate change and contribute to reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement. In the case of afforestation, preliminary results indicate a total potential afforestation area greater than 1 billion ha.  The largest area potential for afforestation have been identified in the USA. Given the higher productivity (combined with large area available), Brazil is the country with the highest total CDR potential of close to 500 MtC/yr.

How to cite: Kraxner, F., Schepaschenko, D., Fuss, S., Krasovskiy, A., Shvidenko, A., Kindermann, G., Jo, H.-W., and Lee, W.-K.: Multi-purpose afforestation scenarios under climate change for carbon dioxide reduction , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19777, 2024.

X4.177
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EGU24-15122
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ECS
Cholho Song, Chul-Hee Lim, Youngjin Ko, Jiwon Son, Hyun-Ah Choi, and Woo-Kyun Lee

In ecosystem services assessment in South Korea, many studies have applied various modelling methods. However, these modelling approaches mainly focused on the statistical growth model based on the national forest inventory, so calculating carbon was the main target of research. Statistical modelling enables annual assessment of the carbon budget in forests, but it was limited to understanding daily ecosystem changes and other material cycles. Therefore, this study tried to set up the linkage of material cycles and ecosystem services using various current modelling schemes in South Korea. Therefore, the process-based model and current forest models were applied to assess carbon and ecosystem productivity. In addition, their possible linkage to ecosystem services was analyzed. From the process-based model, the net primary productivity value was calculated at around 5.17 Mg C ha-1 average, and it indicated around 1.61 Mg C ha-1 in net carbon sequestration during the 2021-2100. Considering the current projection of annual carbon sequestration, this value is similar to the current model projection. In addition, the process-based model calculated evapotranspiration, respirations, and other values which converted ecosystem services, especially climate regulation, supporting ecosystem services, and provisioning ecological materials. Linkage of these models can support to assessment of many other non-assessed ecosystem services, and an ensemble of modelling and expanded modelling in ecosystem services will be required to assess Korean ecosystem services.

How to cite: Song, C., Lim, C.-H., Ko, Y., Son, J., Choi, H.-A., and Lee, W.-K.: Linking material cycles and ecosystem services assessment in forest modelling, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15122, 2024.

X4.178
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EGU24-15677
Jinsol Hong and Kijong Cho

Invasive pest species are the most serious threat to the resilience of agroecosystems. They cause direct damage by reducing crop yield and increasing management costs, and indirect damage through agroecosystem disturbances. To mitigate the risks posed by invasive pests, identifying their potential distribution is a crucial prerequisite. This study predicted the climatic suitability of the rice stem borer (RSB), Chilo suppressalis, within Europe using a species distribution model, CLIMEX. RSB first invaded Spain in the 1930s and has since caused significant damage, with reports of its presence in France, Hungary, and near the Caspian Sea in Russia. The overall suitability for RSB in Europe, while lower than its native region in East Asia, is predicted to be habitable across the European mainland. Notably, the climates of Mediterranean countries (e.g., Greece, Italy, France, Spain, Croatia, etc.) are expected to be sufficiently suitable for RSB habitation. Currently, RSB is also reported in Hungary, but the exact route of invasion is unclear; thus, it is necessary to investigate whether these are extensions of the existing populations in Spain and France or the result of accidental introduction through trade. Moreover, in southern Europe, where rice production is high, there is a risk of significant damage similar to that in Spain. Therefore, quarantine and prevention measures against RSB invasion are required.

How to cite: Hong, J. and Cho, K.: Potential Invasion risk of the rice stem borer, Chilo suppressalis, in Europe using CLIMEX., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15677, 2024.

X4.179
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EGU24-19195
Hun Park, Cholho Song, and Woo-Kyun Lee

Climate change is altering weather patterns around the world, and one notable effect is changes in the jet stream that controls weather systems. As the polar regions warm faster than lower latitudes, the temperature difference that drives the jet stream winds decreases, causing them to become more frequent and the air masses to stagnate. This could lead to prolonged periods of extreme weather, including deadly heat waves, floods and droughts. An example of this can be seen in 2018, when a heat wave broke record high temperatures in Korea due to blocking (a phenomenon in which air flow stagnates in the upper mid-latitudes, weakening westerly winds and causing strong north-south winds) by Rossby waves. Life-threatening heat persists without an increase in low-pressure systems that bring cooling rain.

This study uses a systems ecology approach to examine the interactions between energy and material cycles in interconnected ecosystems in East Asia. The region's rapid urbanization, industrial growth, and high population density have significantly altered heat and material flows and cycles. These anthropogenic changes, together with natural climate variability, have complex and far-reaching impacts on regional climate patterns and ecosystem health.

East Asia's built environment and demographics have fundamentally disrupted natural stability mechanisms. Rapid development has replaced heat-reflecting green spaces with heat-absorbing concrete structures, reducing evaporative cooling capacity. Sprawling road systems filled with vehicle heat exacerbate urban heat islands.

In addition, climate-induced changes in the natural cycles of water, carbon, and nutrients link ecosystems in complex ways. Quantifying changes in cycling by evaluating historical data and models provides a basis for predicting ecosystem stability and resilience in the face of climate change. For example, a decrease in relative humidity in an area increases the risk of wildfires as moisture is removed from dead grass, fallen trees, and leaves. In areas with low relative humidity and abundant fuel-rich vegetation, the risk of wildfires may increase, particularly in winter and spring. A systematic understanding of these dynamics is essential to guide regional climate change adaptation planning.

Finally, the study translates its findings into policy recommendations. By analyzing the positive impacts of increased plant cover on humidity and overall ecosystem water availability, this study provides actionable steps towards a more resilient East Asia.

Acknowledgements: This research was supported by the Core Research Institute Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (NRF-2021R1A6A1A10045235).

How to cite: Park, H., Song, C., and Lee, W.-K.: Impacts of Climate Change on the Energetics and Ecosystem Material Cycles and Extreme Weather Events: An East Asian Case study, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19195, 2024.

Posters virtual: Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vHall X4

Display time: Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–Thu, 18 Apr, 18:00
Chairpersons: Evgenios Agathokleous, Zhaozhong Feng, Thuy Nguyen
vX4.37
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EGU24-6710
Assia Lozzi, Amandine Ouedraogo, Nassima Darrhal, Khalid Dhassi, and Saad Drissi

Climate change is set to reshape the environmental parameters governing crop growth, necessitating the implementation of revised management practices at the field scale. This study focuses on the adaptation and evaluation of the APSIM model for simulating the phenological growth, development, and yield prediction of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in response to climate variability in Morocco. Recognizing the critical role of potatoes in global food systems, and the increasing pressures of climate change, the research aims to accurately forecast the growth and yield responses of potato crops to these environmental shifts. The calibration phase of the APSIM model was rigorously conducted using local datasets, including climate patterns, soil properties, plant phenological data, and cropping practices. The model's accuracy was demonstrated through its high determination coefficients in simulating key growth stages and biomass accumulation of the potato crop. The findings showcase the model's capability in predicting potato yield and phenological responses to climate variability, providing strategic insights for enhancing agricultural practice efficiency. Overall, this study underlines the APSIM model's efficacy in developing strategies for climate-resilient potato farming, offering a robust tool for adapting agricultural practices under changing environmental conditions.

How to cite: Lozzi, A., Ouedraogo, A., Darrhal, N., Dhassi, K., and Drissi, S.: Assessing adaptation strategies for potato cultivation in Morocco: modeling approaches at the field scale, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6710, 2024.

vX4.38
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EGU24-17914
Raniero Della Peruta, Valentina Mereu, Donatella Spano, Serena Marras, and Antonio Trabucco

Coffee is one of the most economically important agri-food systems globally, and is the main source of income for many rural households in several developing countries. Ongoing climate change could cause problems for sustainable coffee production, with greater instability from year to year and lower average yields. To overcome these problems, possible adaptation measures and agronomic practices should be evaluated, such as intercropping with other tree species that can provide more shade for coffee plants and promote resilience and environmental sustainability. To study the effectiveness of such options, the use of process-based models can be very useful.

The DynACof model was developed specifically to simulate coffee agrosystems, including phenological development, physiological processes related to flower and fruit production, carbon allocation, the effect of water availability, light and temperature, and management. We validated the yields modeled by DynACof with productivity data available from some sites and areas included in previous evaluation studies in Mexico, Rwanda, Brazil, Ethiopia, and Costa Rica. We then developed and established a modeling framework in which the model can be applied spatially on a continental or pan-tropical scale, using extended climate projection ensemble and soil geodata.

Our modelling tool was then used to simulate potential yields in Latin America and Africa for both 1985-2014 and 2036-2065, using an ensemble of statistically downscaled and bias adjusted climate projections for two different shared socioeconomic pathways. Comparing the two periods, the model predicts a decrease in yields between 23 and 35 percent in Latin America and between 16 and 21 percent in Africa. The spatial representation of these changes indicates a likely future shift of suitable production areas to higher elevations, possibly impacting fragile mountain ecosystems. We simulated a specific management option, namely increased agroforestry shading, to evaluate its effectiveness in improving resilience to climate risks. The results suggest that increased tree shading could partially reverse the trend of declining yields due to climate change in some lowland areas. However, these preliminary results must be confirmed by further analyses. Impact analysis and adaptation modeling of coffee agrosystems, together with socioeconomic indicators, have the potential to delineate realistic integrated risk assessments and support effective adaptation recommendations.

How to cite: Della Peruta, R., Mereu, V., Spano, D., Marras, S., and Trabucco, A.: Impact of climate change on coffee agrosystems and potential of adaptation measures, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17914, 2024.