Investigating CMIP6 Models for Arctic Sea Ice Dynamics and Predictive Links with Monsoon Precipitation

The Arctic Sea plays a pivotal role in Earth's climate system by modulating ocean-atmospheric interactions, influencing heat exchange, with potential implications for regional phenomena such as Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR). We assess the performance of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating Arctic Sea Ice based on historical data and climatology. The evaluation of selected models focus on their fidelity in accurately representing the intricate dynamics of Arctic Sea Ice by employing various statistical skill metric parameters. Additionally, we will investigate the potential connections between Arctic Sea Ice variability and ISMR using CMIP6 models. A multi-model ensemble mean of the top-performing models will be conducted to illuminate these associations. Further, the study will provide teleconnections and potential correlations through sea-level pressure (SLP) anomalies and velocity potential during ISMR. Overall, the research aims to evaluate the tropical-polar teleconnection and its predictive capacity for ISMR through CMIP6 models, thereby ensuring a better understanding of the critical climate dynamics.