How good are simulations of historical severe storm tides forced by atmospheric reanalysis products in the German Bight?

Severe storm tides are one of the main hazards for the German coast. Understanding the development of storm tides and the resulting water levels supports decision-making. We have used a hydrodynamic model to simulate several of the highest observed storm tide events for the locations Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum (German Bight). The hydrodynamic model is forced by atmospheric (century) reanalysis data (20CR-ensembles, ERA5 and UERRA-HARMONIE) and FES-tides.  In general, the simulations of the severe storms with tracks over Scandinavia and a strong wind gradient over the North Sea show better peak water level results and lower variability compared with more southerly storms with storm tracks over the North Sea. However, the highest observed water level in the German Bight could not be simulated with any of the considered atmospheric forcings. The individual weather situations with the corresponding storm tracks are analysed in order to better understand their different effects on the peak storm tides, their variability and their predictability.