A Trigger for Transformation? Exploring Leverage Points to Bridge Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches in Flood Risk Management

Natural hazards, particularly floods, pose significant threats to societies, demanding effective risk management strategies. In some nations, such as China and Vietnam, flood risk management historically followed a predominantly top-down approach, with limited citizen involvement in decision-making processes. Despite past success of this approach in minimizing losses, the escalating frequency and intensity of floods, driven by climate change, raise questions about solely relaying on conventional methods. In addition to or due to a lack of governmental initiatives, individuals and households often employ their own distinctive adaptation approaches, demonstrating a form of "bottom-up resilience". Without idealizing either approach, integrating aspects of both strategies and ultimately initiating a transformation of flood risk management is necessary to prevent exceeding capacity limits. However, there is still a profound lack of understanding how to genuinely enable transformation, especially in practical terms. Due to their potential to facilitate change, leverage points – places to intervene within a complex system – are becoming increasingly important in system research as a lens for evaluating and planning interventions that support transformation. However, existing research rarely considers leverage points in the context of identifying interventions with transformative potential in flood risk management.

This presentation attempts to fill the gap in research by providing a framework for identifying deep leverage points crucial in the intricate dynamics among individuals, communities, and governments in flood risk management, while acknowledging the challenges, limitations and possibilities inherent in bridging top-down and bottom-up approaches. To overcome the gap between theory and practical implementation, the utilization of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) is proposed to simulate and analyze the impact of concrete interventions at the identified leverage points. An expected result from the ABM includes more in-depth knowledge on the effectiveness of trainings or platforms for information exchange, and about responsibilities within communities as an entry point to enhance community resilience to floods. The model results will provide a tangible and dynamic representation of the potential outcomes of integrated strategies, offering valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners alike.