The metropolitan area of Medellin, Colombia, gradually expanded toward steep hillslopes due to the constraining rugged topography surrounding the city. Steeper hillslopes are more prone to landslides by default. When combined with inadequate planning due to high population pressure, the landslide risk in the city increases disproportionately. 

We analyzed the city's expansion in 18 time steps since 1770. In particular, we explored the empirical relation between urban growth and landslide occurrences. From 1976 to 2023, the city nearly duplicated its area, going from 56 km² to 110 km². We showed that gradually, steeper hillslopes were urbanized, especially since 1941, accompanied by a growing proportion of land in high landslide hazard zones. We also found that landslide activity predominantly occurred on the outskirts of the urban area at any given time, resulting in harm primarily to newly emerged neighbourhoods.

Within the study period, in 2005, when areal images were available, we also categorized the metropolitan area into consolidated urbanization, i.e., compact regular mesh, compact irregular mesh, condominiums, and equipment; and unbound urbanization, i.e., level I: scarce urbanization, level II: road deficit/scattered urbanization, and level III: urbanization scattered around an axis. 

We assigned each category to variables such as hillslope angles, landslide hazards, and socioeconomic strata. Unbound urbanization was identified on steeper hillslopes, coinciding with poorer communities. Hence, we conclude that the persistent expansion of Medellin into landslide-prone areas poses a considerable threat to the population, especially those with limited opportunities in deprived neighbourhoods. By documenting the city's evolution in relation to landslide occurrences, we want to emphasize the pressing landslide risk to local and international policymakers.

How to cite: Ozturk, U., Nieto Lopera, S. M., and Aristizabal Giraldo, E. V.: Centennial landslide risk evolution in Medellin, Colombia, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2451, 2024.

The study highlights the current situation of displacement activities in Joshimath town of Uttarakhand Himalayas. Positioned in the vicinity of Viakrita and Pandukeshwar thrust, the town is situated on an old landslide and glacial moraine material, and rests on giant gneiss boulders embedded in loose sand matrix (Bhattacharya et al, 1982). Consequently, the slopes are prone to movements like mass wasting and related land subsidence. Moreover, the decadal rise in population, unplanned infrastructure, and toe cutting from Dhauli Ganga river has exacerbated the immense pressure on the already vulnerable slopes.

Thus, to understand the cause-impact and the current situation of displacement activity in Joshimath town, the historical and technical findings by previous studies were assessed with respect to the present on-ground situation of displacements and compared to the people’s perception of these disturbances. The historical evidence suggests that slope creep and related subsidence in Joshimath dates from the1960’s and has since been reappearing (Sati et al. 2023). Different technical studies have linked the cause of displacements in Joshimath to land subsidence, groundwater fluctuation and infrastructure overburden with less stress on the landslide displacement being the primary factor. Thus, a comprehensive mapping of landslide scars was done, and it was found that the recorded ground cracks and damaged buildings corresponded well with the mapped landslide scars. The recent field studies conducted in December 2023, suggested that people of Joshimath are not unaware of the landslide activities along the rim regions of Joshimath slope, and at least two communities in the past had to relocate to uphill areas, due to increased toe cutting and slope destabilization along Dhauli Ganga River. Moreover, according to the locals, slope destabilization and related subsidence in Joshimath was exacerbated post the 7^th Feburary 2021 debris flow and successive heavy rainfall events in October 2021. Satellite images also suggest the reactivation of old landslides due to toe cutting after the 2021 event and similar destabilization was also triggered post the 2013 flash floods (Sharma et al., 2014). The field observations also highlighted the presence of new cracks and fissures on roads, fields, and repaired constructions. Thus, the increase in toe cutting, followed by slope failures may lead to upslope progression of landslide scars. Also 99% of buildings in Joshimath are non-compliant with the national building codes of 2016, and most of the adversely affected buildings lie in regions on steep slopes of hill (CBRI, 2023). Consequently, the unplanned infrastructure development along such unstable old landslide scars could accelerate slope instability.

Keywords: Displacement, Landslides, cracks, toe-cutting, infrastructure

How to cite: Lakhera, S., Jaboyedoff, M., Derron, M.-H., Goswami, A., and Kc, D.: Understanding the historical, technical, and local perception of displacement activity in Joshimath town of Uttarakhand, India, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14870, 2024.

Climate change, one of the most remarked anthropogenic changes, has increased the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. Heavy rainfall events pose challenges especially in urban areas, which have a higher rate of impervious surface, compared to non-urban areas. Seoul, the capital city of South Korea is not an exception for the cities that contend with flooding. During summer, the meteorological condition forming over the Korean peninsula brings rainfall constituting approximately 35-55% of the country’s annual precipitation. Seoul has undergone rapid development and urbanization, which also are the examples of anthropogenic changes, for the last five decades; the city’s current population is about 4.7 times larger than that of the early 1960s. This fast population increase created a distinctive housing type known as semi-basement housing, symbolizing socioeconomic marginalization. Despite ongoing efforts by the Seoul Metropolitan Government to mitigate flood risk citywide, most of the households living in the semi-basement housing, particularly in low-lying areas, remain highly susceptible to flooding whenever heavy rainfall events occur. This study focuses on Gwanak-gu, one of Seoul’s 25 districts and the district with the highest concentration of semi-basement housing. The study examines how anthropogenic changes in both physical (i.e., climate change) and social (i.e., urban development and urbanization) environment exacerbate the already marginalized people’s vulnerability floods. The results show that the same amount of heavy rainfall (e.g., 100mm per hour) pouring in the district significantly heightens the level of exposure for the semi-basement housing than the exposure level of housing that is not semi-basement. This implies that the climate change and urban development and urbanization (i.e., anthropogenic changes) make the vulnerable people even more vulnerable, even as the measures aim to alleviate overall flood risk across the city have been implemented. In other words, anthropogenic changes, even though the government’s risk mitigation efforts exist, tend to polarize the vulnerability and exposure to floods. Drawing from the results, the study emphasizes the need for more considerate measures to truly reduce the flood risk of the city. It concludes by suggesting potential strategies that could contribute to reducing flood vulnerability of the marginalized populations and lowering overall flood risk in the city.

How to cite: Ro, B. and Park, H.: The impact of anthropogenic changes on socioeconomically marginalized population in urban areas: A case study of flood risk in Seoul, South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17950, 2024.

Anomalous CO₂ degassing were observed by the end of November 2021 in the neighborhoods of La Bombilla and Puerto Naos, and some banana plantations, located at the North-West flank of Cumbre Vieja volcano ridge, La Palma island, at about 6 km distance southwestern of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption vents. These urban areas, not directly damaged by lava flows, were included in the exclusion zone due to the strong volcanic-hydrothermal carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂>5-20%). CO₂ is an invisible toxic gas, as well as asphyxiant gas, and may be lethal when is present in concentrations higher than 14V%.

During the last two years, several institutions deployed indoor and outdoor own gas networks, to try to delimitate the CO₂ anomalies where CO₂ air concentration exceed hazardous thresholds, but with an insufficient number of CO₂ sensors (less than 100) to cover all homes, garages, basements and stores in real time. These studies aim to understand the dynamics of CO₂ emission to delimitate the CO₂ anomalies where CO₂ air concentration exceed the hazardous thresholds, and help the authorities’ decision-making of people's return to their homes and stores.

The ALERTACO2 project was born with the objective of implementing a much more extensive network of CO₂ sensors (1,200) sensors in most of the building of both inhabited areas, the creation of a 24-hour monitoring room and an information and awareness campaign for the population about this volcanic hazard. The financing (3M EUROS) comes from the Spanish Government, and has the participation of the National Geographic Institute (IGN) and the Volcanological Institute of the Canary Islands (INVOLCAN).

Each sensor has a color light code to indicate the CO₂ concentration (green, yellow, orange and blue if the sensor is not working), and a QR code to view the information remotely. So far 35% of the 1,200 sensors have been installed inside and outside homes of both urban areas (including beaches and Sol Melia Hotel). Each sensor sends the data to the 24-hour monitoring room via a gateway installed at the roof of each building. Thanks to the project, some families in the area marked green have been able to return to their homes in safety conditions in December 2023 since their homes CO₂ concentrations were below 1,000 ppm.

How to cite: Padilla, G. D., Pérez, N. M., López, C., López, R., Hernández, P. A., Moure, D., D'Auria, L., Torres, P., Barrancos, J., Melián, G. V., D'Nardo, D., González, A. M., and Álvarez, A.: ALERTA CO2: An alert system to monitor and mitigate the hazard associated with high concentrations of indoor and outdoor air CO2 at the inhabited areas of Puerto Naos and La Bombilla, La Palma, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19009, 2024.

The entire Canarian Archipelago can be considered a volcanically active area and its volcanic risk is now much higher than 50 years ago as a result of the actual high levels of population and socio-economic value exposure to the volcanic hazards present on the territory. The knowledge of perception of volcanic hazards and volcanic risk of different groups of the society will be essential to develop an effective reduction volcanic risk strategy as a collective responsibility. The different groups can be communication professionals, tourists, urban and territorial planners and the general public, among others. While some may have more specific roles and responsibilities in this endeavor, visitors and tourists can make a significant contribution to volcanic risk management efforts. The Canary Islands register between 8 to 13 millions of visitors every year (source: Statistics National Institute-INE), what means a significant number of floating populations visiting an active volcanic area. This research aims to assess the level of understanding and interest that tourists have about volcanoes and volcanic risk management in Canary Islands, and to examine the potential and desired role of the tourists in enhancing the effectiveness of volcanic risk management efforts.

To assess tourists' perceptions of volcanic hazards and risks on Tenerife, we have designed a face-to-face questionnaire. The questionnaire consists of approximately 30 questions and is completed in about 10 or 15 minutes. Approximately 20% of the questionnaire covers demographic data, while questions about volcanic phenomenon and volcanic risk management account for roughly 40%, with the remaining 40% centered on respondents' perception of volcanic hazards and risks. The questionnaire was released from July 18 to the end of September 2023, with a total of 419 tourists surveyed.

How to cite: Afonso Falcón, D., Rodríguez-Pérez, C., Quezada-Ugalde, A., Chelli, G., James, G., Rahli, K., Cantero, J. G., Coldwell, B. C., Solana, C., Rodríguez, F., adrón, E., Pérez, N. M., Hernández, P. A., Melián, G. V., Padilla, G., and Asensio-Ramos, M.: Tourists' perception of volcanic hazards and volcanic risk in Tenerife Island, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18272, 2024.

Nowadays, volcanic eruptions pose a significant threat to society, particularly in monogenetic volcanic fields where prolonged recurrence periods lead to increased human settlements in their vicinity. This is mostly attributed to a false sense of security within the community potentially exposed to a future eruptive event. Such misconceptions often result in a lack of preparedness programs and resilience capabilities for potential future eruptions.

In this context, the city of Olot (~34,400 inhabitants, Catalonia, Spain), located within the Garrotxa volcanic field, serves as an example of human settlement around monogenetic volcanoes, which the last known eruption occurred ~ 10.4 – 15.7 ka ago. Although communities residing in this volcanic field demonstrate a sound understanding of their environment, there is a prevalent misconception regarding volcanic hazards, which often leads to perceive the area as inactive or even extinct. 

To evaluate the perception of volcanic risk among the population of Olot, we have conducted a survey segmented by age groups. The main objectives are: (i) identifying knowledge gaps and misconceptions within the population; (ii) analyzing the factors most relevant in determining risk perception within the community; (iii) contributing to the assessment of the population's resilience in the face of a future eruptive event: and (iv) ultimately evaluating the contrast between the perception of the Olot community and its actual volcanic risk. This work was funded by the BECAS CHILE- ANID, PhD Scholarship Abroad, announcement 2022/Folio 72220257.

How to cite: Cerda, D., Geyer, A., Bolós, X., Pedrazzi, D., and Morin, J.: Perception of volcanic risk in communities close to a monogenetic volcanic field: the case of Olot (Garrotxa Volcanic Field, Catalonia), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12454, 2024.

The ultimate aims of this study is to assess the risk associated with plausible earthquake generated tsunamis along the coasts of Albania, adopting a case study approach based on the modelling of tsunamigenic earthquake scenarios based on the maximum moment magnitude (Mmax) reported in DISS-3.3 joint with the 2019 Mw6.4 Durres earthquake source models. In order to assess the expected impact, we computed the tsunami hazard in terms of maximum amplitude, estimated time of arrivals and inundation zone on the Albanian coast for a set of tsunamis resulting from potential earthquakes generated by the major identified seismogenic sources (namely, Lushnje source from DISS-3.3 database) in the eastern Adriatic Sea. Our approach combines current available information on regional tectonics, recent earthquake swarms in 2019 in scenario-based approach to contribute to tsunami risk assessment for the selected urban area along the Albanian Adriatic coast. The goal is to analyse the propagation of tsunami waves generated by the source set of scenarios, which is potentially able to generate an aggregated scenario of Mmax 7.5, that could cause significant impacts in the region. The modelling are performed by NAMI DANCE numerical code (e.g., Dogan et al., 2021, Natural Hazards, 106(2), 1195–1221; and references therein). For the exposure analysis concerning buildings, landuse and infrastructure, a Geographic Information System (GIS) formatted database is created for the Durres municipality. The Durres exposure analysis in terms of population and built environment were presented in the form of maps, and provide insights for future evacuation plans. Approximately 63% of the buildings consist of single-storey structures, and the number of exposed buildings strongly increased during the period 2000 to 2010. Understanding the composition and construction timelines of the buildings is crucial in assessing their vulnerability and potential impact associated to the simulated tsunamis scenarios. Regarding human impact, the exposure analysis indicates vulnerability in residential, commercial, and public service areas. In Durres city only, the expected population by 2036, estimated at 138,000 inhabitants according to the National Agency of Territorial Planning (AKTP, 2022), will be located in vulnerable urban areas. The results highlight the significant vulnerability of the most important sectors in Durres to possible tsunamis and the need for a rigorous urban planning and enforcement to mitigate future seismic related hazards. This study provides the first extensive examination of urban-scale tsunami risk assessment for cities along the Albanian coastline, highlighting the paramount role of exposure and vulnerability assessment to increase preparedness and inform resilient urban planning.

How to cite: Xhafaj, E., Scaini, C., Peresan, A., and Hassan, H. M.: Tsunami Impacts Scenarios for the Albanian Coasts: Durres City case study, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2012, 2024.

Flood risks are exacerbating around the globe, often exceeding capacities to adapt, thus leaving people at risk and raising critical questions on how adaptation gaps can be overcome. In response to observed flood protection gaps, a behavioural turn in flood risk management is observed (Kuhlicke et al. 2020). This turn is characterised by an increased motivation of households to engage in individual flood protection on the one hand and institutionally shifted responsibilities from public authorities towards individuals on the other. This however evokes critical social, political, and ethical questions on the role and contribution of households (and other actors) in risk management. Therefore, our research aims to explore how contributions to flood risk management are divided between households, different levels of government, and other actors on paper vs. in practice, by highlighting key empirical research findings from the case study of Hue, a flood-prone urban region in Central Vietnam. Methodologically, the study draws upon a qualitative content analysis of national and provincial legal flood risk governance documents and statistical analyses of household survey results (n=606) from March and April 2023. Conceptually, the research draws on social contract theory (Blackburn & Pelling 2018) to reveal differences between the legal-institutional, perceived, and practised social contracts for flood risk management, including underlying drivers for observed disparities.

On paper, public authorities at different levels of government (from national to local) are legally assigned a primary role in flood risk management, particularly when it comes to financing, preparedness, and response. At the same time, 60% of surveyed households perceive themselves as being the most responsible actor for flood risk management. Hence, households attribute a significantly higher level of responsibility for engaging in flood risk adaptation to themselves as opposed to local and national government authorities, civil society, foreign aid actors, and the private sector. In practice, a significant share of households (89%) has engaged in diverse temporary preparedness and response actions during past flooding incidents, such as placing sandbags in front of the house. However, only few households (16%) have engaged in permanent actions such as elevating the house floor, and only 5% have implemented these actions proactively, highlighting a significant gap for adaptive actions compared to coping interventions. The assessment of underlying drivers of perceived and practised social contracts revealed that amongst other factors, income and risk perception particularly shape perceived responsibility to act, while past experiences and coping appraisal shape people’s motivation to act. The presentation concludes with context-specific policy recommendations and avenues for future research that can contribute to closing flood risk management gaps. All-in-all, the presentation thus provides novel insights for navigating complex questions around flood risk management contribution divisions between different stakeholders, and more specifically understanding and optimising household engagement in flood risk governance practice in Hue and other cities facing similar challenges.

How to cite: Sett, D., Grobusch, L. C., Schinkel, U., Le Dang Bao, C., Nguyen Dang Giang, C., Nguyen Hoang Khanh, L., Garschagen, M., and Hagenlocher, M.: How are households contributing to flood risk management? Empirical evidence from a highly flood-prone urban region in Central Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2108, 2024.

Natural hazards, particularly floods, pose significant threats to societies, demanding effective risk management strategies. In some nations, such as China and Vietnam, flood risk management historically followed a predominantly top-down approach, with limited citizen involvement in decision-making processes. Despite past success of this approach in minimizing losses, the escalating frequency and intensity of floods, driven by climate change, raise questions about solely relaying on conventional methods. In addition to or due to a lack of governmental initiatives, individuals and households often employ their own distinctive adaptation approaches, demonstrating a form of "bottom-up resilience". Without idealizing either approach, integrating aspects of both strategies and ultimately initiating a transformation of flood risk management is necessary to prevent exceeding capacity limits. However, there is still a profound lack of understanding how to genuinely enable transformation, especially in practical terms. Due to their potential to facilitate change, leverage points – places to intervene within a complex system – are becoming increasingly important in system research as a lens for evaluating and planning interventions that support transformation. However, existing research rarely considers leverage points in the context of identifying interventions with transformative potential in flood risk management.

This presentation attempts to fill the gap in research by providing a framework for identifying deep leverage points crucial in the intricate dynamics among individuals, communities, and governments in flood risk management, while acknowledging the challenges, limitations and possibilities inherent in bridging top-down and bottom-up approaches. To overcome the gap between theory and practical implementation, the utilization of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) is proposed to simulate and analyze the impact of concrete interventions at the identified leverage points. An expected result from the ABM includes more in-depth knowledge on the effectiveness of trainings or platforms for information exchange, and about responsibilities within communities as an entry point to enhance community resilience to floods. The model results will provide a tangible and dynamic representation of the potential outcomes of integrated strategies, offering valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners alike.

How to cite: Heinzel, C.: A Trigger for Transformation? Exploring Leverage Points to Bridge Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches in Flood Risk Management, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15111, 2024.

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of participatory elements in climate change adaptation policies at both the EU level and within national contexts, focusing on Germany and Spain. The study delves into the crucial role of co-production and citizen engagement in shaping effective climate adaptation strategies. The research methodology involves policy identification and selection, analysis of participatory elements, and the application of Arnstein's ladder of citizen participation to evaluate the level of citizen engagement in the identified policies. The analysis reveals the diverse mechanisms and approaches employed to foster inclusive and participatory processes in climate adaptation policies. The study highlights the significance of stakeholder involvement, consultation mechanisms, transparency, capacity building, and feedback mechanisms in shaping robust climate adaptation strategies. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of citizen participation in driving transformative climate adaptation initiatives, emphasizing the need for broad geographical representation, inclusive approaches, and the integration of diverse knowledge systems. The study identifies gaps and areas for improvement in the participatory elements of the analyzed policies, emphasizing the need for more comprehensive mechanisms to engage the general public and vulnerable communities in the adaptation planning process. It also underscores the importance of systematic studies of gaps and barriers to stakeholder participation and the representation of marginalized communities in adaptation planning and decision-making processes. The paper offers valuable insights into the participatory elements of climate change adaptation policies, providing a nuanced understanding of the approaches employed at both the EU and national levels. The findings contribute to the ongoing discourse on inclusive and effective climate adaptation strategies, emphasizing the need for continuous improvement and the meaningful involvement of diverse stakeholders in shaping resilient climate futures.

How to cite: Komendantova, N. and Erokhin, D.: Participation in climate change adaptation , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10811, 2024.

The daily dissemination of a substantial amount of information concerning to disasters and crises on social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram and Twitter in one side, and the sensitivity of this information, on the other hand, underscores the importance of evaluating the credibility of online information in this area. Fact-checking tools employing artificial intelligence represent a novel approach to verifying the validity of online information across various fields, including disaster management. The inclination of individuals to utilize fact-checking tools in such circumstances is influenced by their perceptions. Although there is a limited studies on the impact of perceptions and information processing on the intention to employ fact-checking tools in disaster-related contexts, it is anticipated that factors like critical thinking, as a concept that involves meticulous assessment of unclear or requiring careful consideration, heuristic processing, a concept indicating acceptance of news content without filtering, and the new-source tracking a concept demonstrating openness and positivity towards social media information, play pivotal roles in predicting this intention. Consequently, a conceptual framework was formulated wherein critical thinking, aside from its direct impact on the intention to use fact-checking tools, also exerts influence through two mediators of information processing and the new source tracking variables. This study's framework was examined using data from 202 respondents across various European countries, collected through an online survey. The conceptual framework analysised utilizing AMOS software. Descriptive findings indicate a moderate level of familiarity with misinformation detection tools among respondents (M=2.65; sd=1.04). Respondents exhibited close knowledge levels regarding fact-checking tools such as Rbutr, Foller, me and Botometer, Fakespot, NewsGuard, and Greek Hoaxes Detector, ranging between approximately (1.57-1.70). Contrary to initial expectations, the study's results reveal that critical thinking, was unable to directly predict the intention to use fact-checking tools. However, the indirect effect of critical thinking was confirmed through the two mediators of new source tracking and information processing (heuristic processing). Critical thinking significantly influenced the new source tracking (β=.49; p <0.0001) and heuristic processing (β=.41; p <0.0001). Both new source tracking (β=.19; p=0.043) and heuristic information processing (β=.31; p=0.001) emerged as direct predictors of the intention to use fact-checking tools. The evidence examined in this study provides empirical support that the conceptual framework has been able to predict 22% of the changes in the intention to use fact checking tools and still a significant amount of it needs to be researched.

How to cite: Zobeidi, T. and Komendantova, N.: Intention to apply Artificial Intelligence using fact checking tools in disaster management, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19362, 2024.

Following the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing, the ensuing discussions in the media and on social platforms highlighted the potential of terrorism to deepen societal divisions. This study investigates the dynamics of rumors on social media and in the press after the attack, as well as the subsequent discourse on migration policies. We compiled a dataset comprising 3,184 press articles and 89,148 tweets pertaining to the Manchester Arena bombing. The research aims to identify prevalent rumors, assess their short- and long-term effects on user engagement, analyze the sentiment in tweets related to each rumor, and scrutinize perceptions of terrorism threats and migration policies among both the press and Twitter users.

The findings reveal that Twitter acted as an echo chamber for misinformation, amplifying specific rumors related to the attack, while the press demonstrated fact-checking practices and offered nuanced perspectives. Notably, one rumor suggesting the attacker was a refugee gained traction over time, reflecting a surge in anti-immigrant sentiments. Emotional responses on Twitter varied from a neutral tone to heightened distress and anger, underscoring the significant impact of social media narratives on public sentiment. The research highlights the polarization of views on social media, influenced by the concise format of tweets and the rapid production cycle, with Twitter users predominantly expressing very negative attitudes toward immigration. This study emphasizes the crucial role of the media in dispelling misinformation and cultivating a nuanced public understanding in complex socio-political contexts.

How to cite: Vicari, R., Elroy, O., Komendantova, N., and Yosipof, A.: Persistence of Rumours and Hate Speech Over the Years: the Manchester Arena Bombing , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19300, 2024.

Adapting to climate change impacts requires a coherent social contract in which different actors agree on a clear distribution of roles and responsibilities. It is hence important to understand what roles and responsibilities different actors in a city or other social system expect and how they negotiate to ultimately arrive at a shared vision for a coherent social contract on adaptation for the coming decades. An urgent requirement is to understand the imagined social contracts on expected roles and responsibilities, which is particularly relevant in cities where very diverse social groups come together. However, there is limited empirical evidence on these expectations as they are often tacit and hard to capture across large populations and heterogeneous groups. Here using the concept of social listening in combination with Twitter data we assess the social contract on flood risk management in Mumbai. Social media data offer a new data source to inductively capture and assess the exchange and negotiations of roles and responsibilities of different actors such as public sector, citizens, civil society and private sector, including nuanced sentiments and opinions. In order to understand the imagined social contracts by different actors in Mumbai, we captured all flood risk related tweets over the monsoon season of 2021 (~70,000 tweets). We collected data through specific hashtag and keyword combinations. We manually coded the tweets in order to show the major themes in the dominant debate on flood risk management and filtered the most relevant tweets for the social contract analysis. The tweets were subsequently coded and analysed more comprehensively (e.g. for underlying sentiments).

Overall, our results show that there are gaps in the social contract on flood risk management in Mumbai on two levels: first, between different social contracts such as the practiced and imagined or the legal-institutional and imagined and, second, between different imagined social contracts. On the former, we found a large gap between the aspirational and realistic levels of expectations from the public sector. On the latter, we found surprisingly stark contestations regarding the roles and responsibilities towards the poor and most vulnerable populations living in informal and highly flood-prone settlements. Sentiments such as frustration and apathy expressed in tweets explain these gaps and highlight the need to build trust for achieving accepted and effective social contracts for adaptation. The results suggest that laying open these gaps is a necessary first step towards closing them and building a coherent future social contract. Twitter is an upcoming arena to negotiate and express opinions between different actors and hence, an important empirical database for analysing evolving social contracts. We suggest that such social listening approaches using Twitter or other platforms of active exchange can be of great relevance in high-risk contexts, including urban areas, across the globe in which different actors are faced with a high adaptation pressure and diverse competing, or even conflicting perspectives but currently lack a clear and agreed strategy or even vision to jointly move adaptation forward.

How to cite: Doshi, D. and Garschagen, M.: Assessing social contracts for climate change adaptation through social listening on Twitter: general considerations and urban application, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6345, 2024.