NH9.15 | Positive and negative impacts of societies on natural hazards and risks: from shaping their occurrence to improving risk governance via citizen-centered approaches
EDI
Positive and negative impacts of societies on natural hazards and risks: from shaping their occurrence to improving risk governance via citizen-centered approaches
Convener: Nadejda Komendantova | Co-conveners: Elisa Bozzolan, Cecilia I. Nievas, Antonella Peresan, Alexandre Pereira Santos, Caroline Michellier, Viktor RözerECSECS
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 0.15
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Wed, 08:30
Wed, 10:45
Natural hazards are a major threat to societies as they produce strong socio-economic impacts and hinder sustainable development. With a projected increase in global urban population, risk mitigation strategies must consider the mutual interactions between the natural environment, social dynamics, and urban development. Urban expansion can amplify or reduce hazards, exposure and the vulnerability of populations. Urban activities should then be dynamically included within all the spheres of risk assessment, quantifying how they directly or indirectly influence hazard occurrence (cause) as much as they are influenced by them (consequence). In addition, the success of risk mitigation strategies strongly relies on citizens who have multiple roles in receiving, understanding, generating and disseminating risk-related information. The definition of mitigation and adaptation strategies should therefore involve multiple key actors (e.g. land use and urban planners) and actively engage citizens and communities through bottom-up approaches (e.g. citizen science, participatory mapping). These key actors can, in turn, support a better understanding of hazards (e.g. using local knowledge to calibrate models), exposure and vulnerabilities. However, disaster risk reduction strategies and their implementation can be disrupted by various obstacles. Among them is misinformation which influences risk perception and can reduce the acceptance of disaster risk reduction strategies and trust in the authorities implementing them. We aim to collect recent scientific advances in assessing and measuring the multifaceted societal contributions to disaster risk assessment and reduction and integrating these contributions into the current risk governance practice. We call for experiences that can contribute to developing such citizen-centered and science-based urban development strategies and policies, bringing evidence on:
- New strategies and data sources (e.g. remote sensing, crowdsourced, traditional or indigenous knowledge) and their integration through emerging technologies (e.g. machine learning and artificial intelligence).
- The impact of urban development on the occurrence and impact of natural hazards and multi-hazards.
- Successful risk mitigation strategies that involve modifying detrimental urban practices.
- Case studies and lessons learned on the active involvement of citizens and other stakeholders into risk assessment frameworks.

Orals: Wed, 17 Apr | Room 0.15

The oral presentations are given in a hybrid format supported by a Zoom meeting featuring on-site and virtual presentations. The button to access the Zoom meeting appears just before the time block starts.
Chairpersons: Nadejda Komendantova, Elisa Bozzolan, Antonella Peresan
08:30–08:35
The social life of “natural” hazards: how societal needs and urban activities can increase hazards and shape disasters
08:35–08:45
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EGU24-11010
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NH9.15
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Lisa Luna, Maria Isabel Arango Carmona, Georg Veh, Elizabeth Lewis, Ugur Ozturk, and Oliver Korup

As growing cities expand into steeper terrain, urbanization activities like clearing vegetation, cutting and filling slopes, and building infrastructure can increase rainfall-triggered landslide hazard compared to unmodified slopes. Landslide early warning systems can help to reduce rainfall-triggered landslide risk in susceptible areas, but few cities worldwide have established dedicated systems. Such systems often rely on rainfall thresholds that identify landslide triggering conditions, but determining these thresholds requires landslide inventory data that is not available everywhere. Furthermore, the variability of thresholds between cities, and the applicability of previously estimated global thresholds to urban areas has yet to be assessed, such that cities with limited landslide inventory data have few options to learn from areas with more information.

Here, we compiled 1216 rainfall-triggered urban landslide records from 26 cities worldwide to address two open questions: 1. how variable are rainfall thresholds between cities? and 2. how do global rainfall thresholds for urban landslides compare to previously estimated thresholds from multiple land use types?  Using hourly, station-based precipitation data from the Global Sub-daily Rainfall Dataset (Lewis et al., 2019), we applied Bayesian multi-level quantile regression to estimate intensity-duration thresholds for each city and a global threshold for urban landslides. 

We found that landslides were triggered under surprisingly similar rainfall conditions in most cities despite widely varying climates, topographies, and income classes.  Median thresholds in cities with the highest and lowest mean annual precipitation were not credibly distinguishable, and in 77% of cities, the median threshold was indistinguishable from the global average. We show that urban landslides occurred at lower threshold intensities than previously reported for multiple land-use types, and that 31% of landslides occurred during moderate storms, not only during extreme rainfall.

Our results suggest that urban hillslopes may be more adjusted to urbanization activities than to local environmental conditions, leading to similar thresholds between cities. Reports of urban landslides at relatively low intensity rainfall likely also reflects the role of anthropogenic hillslope modification and malfunctioning infrastructure in causing and triggering failures.  We offer a baseline for warning in cities with sparse landslide records and suggest that future updates to regional and global landslide early warning systems consider differing thresholds for urban and rural regions.

How to cite: Luna, L., Arango Carmona, M. I., Veh, G., Lewis, E., Ozturk, U., and Korup, O.: Urban landslides triggered under similar rainfall conditions in cities globally, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11010, 2024.

08:45–08:55
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EGU24-6288
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NH9.15
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Abdüssamet Yılmaz, Tolga Görüm, Mehmet Lütfi Süzen, Tarık Talay, and İsra Bostancıoğlu

As a megacity, Istanbul has been a regional center of attraction in terms of its historical, cultural, and economic importance from past to present. In terms of this feature, it has continuously received migration and expanded its urban area due to the increasing population. Rapid urbanization has brought an urban growth model with low resilience to natural hazards. In this city, which is expected to face a major earthquake in the near future, the distribution of landslides has not been focused on covering the entire urban area. In order to make the city resilient in terms of current hazards and secondary hazards after a possible earthquake, different geoscience projects were initiated by Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality in 2022. In this context, we conducted a detailed landslide assessment for the entire city of Istanbul using Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) derived from LiDAR, multi-temporal optical stereo-photo derived, and satellite imageries covering the period between 2013 and 2023. In total, 20,537 individual landslides were identified and mapped in the entire city area from the airborne LiDAR data and multi-temporal aerial photos. In order to determine the change in the distribution of landslides we prepared multi-temporal landslide inventories using multi-temporal optical aerial photographs and satellite images between 2013 and 2023. In this respect, we found that 3241 landslides were excavated, and 468 new landslides were triggered due to anthropogenic activities such as infrastructure, road construction, mining, airport construction, urban parks, and new settlement areas. We also revealed that the legacy effect in paleo-landslide complexes plays a vital role in the reactivation of many deep-seated landslides. Many of these landslides were also reactivated due to construction and infrastructure problems. In this context, we have revealed that anthropogenic impacts are the most important parameter on the current distribution dynamics of urban landslides in Istanbul. We conclude our study by highlighting that this new and comprehensive landslide inventory prepared for the megacity of Istanbul will contribute to determining landslide avoidance zones for planning new settlements and industrial areas.

How to cite: Yılmaz, A., Görüm, T., Süzen, M. L., Talay, T., and Bostancıoğlu, İ.: The Impact of Anthropogenic Activities on the Distribution of Urban Landslides in Istanbul Megacity, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6288, 2024.

08:55–09:05
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EGU24-11779
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NH9.15
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Alessio Gatto, Stefano Clo', Federico Martellozzo, and Samuele Segoni

Climate change and urban expansion are significantly contributing to an increase in catastrophic hydro-geomorphological events, which cause huge damage to society and economy. Since Italy is a relevant hot spot for these huge events, it was taken as a comprehensive case study for this work. The general aim is to analyze the interrelations between the recurrence of disasters at the province and municipality level and urban expansion. All the carried-out analyses are based on a dataset of municipalities and provinces affected by recent hydro-geomorphological disasters for which a national-level state of emergency was declared. The database consists of sets of every municipality and province hit by a critical event and included in the national state of emergency, which suffered damages and obtained subsidies for reconstruction in the last 9 years. For this work, the correlation between the recurrence of disasters on a province and municipality basis and urbanization was tested with a series of state-of-the-art indicators of hydrogeological hazard or risk provided by ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale – higher institute for environmental research and protection). Over 300 variables were considered and over 50 were tested, to find out which ones related better with impacts on territories. Starting from 2013 until now, were calculated soil sealing trends in areas at risk. The increase or decrease for each municipality hit by a critical event was analyzed to better understand local territories’ policies and how they face catastrophes. Firstly, it was discovered that in Italy, during the last ten years, there had been more than one hundred events that have required the intervention of National Civil Protection, with the declaration of a national-level state of emergency and the funding of interventions for first aid and restoration. Secondly, the best correlation between risk-related variables and hit municipalities was found considering cumulative months of emergency and the amount of urbanization in areas at medium hydro-geological risk. Lastly, taking into account this information, the study focused on soil urbanization trends: it was found that in each municipality the trend kept increasing at the same rate despite past damages and economic losses. The last focus of this work was, once the test was completed, evaluating the interplays over time between catastrophic events and policies of urban expansion. This work showed how urban expansion is deeply linked to hydro-geomorphological emergencies, demonstrating that at present the medium-hazard areas are underestimated by policymakers and are the main source of damages. Moreover, the urbanization trends for each municipality highlighted how local administrations, despite damages, don’t change their policies.

How to cite: Gatto, A., Clo', S., Martellozzo, F., and Segoni, S.: Interrelations between urban sprawl and national hydro-geomorphological emergencies in Italy, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11779, 2024.

09:05–09:15
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EGU24-12735
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NH9.15
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Virtual presentation
Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Benjamin Hofbauer, and Paul Einhäupl

This presentation outlines a framework of how to identify, assess, and govern systemic risks, applied to the context of urban and metropolitan settings. In contrast to routine risks, systemic risks appear on a systemic and structural level, produced, and affected by complex endogenous and exogenous interdependencies. Systemic risks are unintended by-products of current transformation processes, such as the deployment and innovation of new technologies, infrastructural changes, or socio-political dynamics, for example. Urban and metropolitan provide fertile ground for systemic risks, exhibiting a nexus of tightly coupled dynamic natural, societal, and technological systems.

However, so far systemic risks lack adequate assessment, evaluation, and governance approaches, which is a barrier toward developing effective policy measures. This gap in governance mechanisms is particularly glaring in the context of increased of pluvial and fluvial floods, wildfires, storms, and other extreme weather events across European cities. Failing to take the systemic interdependencies of urban settings into account may lead to higher socio-economic losses and potential systemic breakdowns, e.g., on the energy-supply, healthcare, or infrastructure level. The framework we propose entails the qualitative identification and assessment of systemic risks, ethical and societal implications, as well as the quantitative analysis thereof. We suggest a two-step approach towards the assessment and governance of systemic risks.

First, a clear identification of the systemic risk in question needs to take place. The analysis of systemic risks needs to pay attention to casual relations and feedback mechanisms between various system factors at the intra- and inter-system level, which result in transboundary cascading effects. Accordingly, delineating both the relevant systems and entangled risks requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining the quantification of risks alongside their qualitative assessment. This entails understanding, conceptualizing, and modeling vulnerabilities, scenario development, as well as the integration of stakeholders to identify potential leverage points and enable the facilitation of transformative processes. In the context of urban environments, this means delineating the various affected systems, and how they interact (e.g. healthcare, water supply, and electricity infrastructure). Second, identified systemic risk requires adequate governance. Governance of systemic risks must be concerned with the analysis of embedded systems, procedural considerations of inclusion and deliberation, as well as closure. The salient features of reflection, iteration, inclusion, transparency, and accountability have been identified as guiding principles for governance processes concerned with systemic risk. The procedural governance approach also explicitly relies on ethical considerations, tied to recognition and participatory justice. In the context of urban environments, this entails for example analyzing the relevant governance bodies (e.g. local vs. national), understanding their respective responsibilities and interdependencies, and assessing the decision-making process surrounding disaster risk management.

The presentation outlines a framework to address the challenges of complexities, uncertainties, and ambiguities associated with systemic risks. The framework draws on conceptual contributions as well as empirical evidence from transdisciplinary stakeholder and public engagement processes in urban and metropolitan contexts.

How to cite: Schweizer, P.-J., Hofbauer, B., and Einhäupl, P.: Identifying, Assessing, and Governing Systemic Risks: Towards an Integrative Framework Applied to Urban Settings, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12735, 2024.

The multifaceted role of citizens in disaster risk reduction
09:15–09:25
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EGU24-3891
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NH9.15
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Rosanna Bonasia, Mackendy Ceragene, Luis Cea, and Maria de la O Cuevas Cancino

In recent decades, the state of Tabasco, particularly its capital, Villahermosa, has faced recurrent flooding due to a combination of natural and human-induced factors. Situated in the southeast region of Mexico, the convergence of the powerful Usumacinta and Grijalva rivers, coupled with clayey soil and a semi-confined aquifer inhibiting water infiltration, has made the region susceptible to saturation and subsequent flooding. Deforestation in the river basins since the 1970s, transforming land use from forest to agriculture, has exacerbated runoff, contributing to increased flood risk.

The intensification of tropical cyclones and extreme weather events, indicative of global climate change, further heightens the vulnerability of the region. Despite experiencing significant economic losses and ecological degradation in the past two decades, Tabasco's flood prevention policies have proven ineffective. Recognizing the need for a more proactive approach, this study emphasizes the importance of long-term flood risk assessment, incorporating both the probability of occurrence and potential impact.

In Mexico, guidelines for flood risk maps were established in 2014, resulting in the National Atlas of Flood Risk. However, these maps predominantly focus on flood rates and historical occurrences, lacking a comprehensive approach to long-term forecasting. This study addresses this gap by constructing the first risk maps for Villahermosa. Following National Water Commission guidelines, the methodology considers hydrological studies, hydraulic simulations, and social vulnerability indexes.

The vulnerability maps incorporate socio-economic factors like employment, education, and housing composition, while hazard maps determine the severity index and impact on residential structures. Through GIS-based intersection, risk maps are generated, revealing that even areas exposed to flooding during high-return period scenarios exhibit a medium risk index. Nevertheless, limitations arise from incomplete socio-economic and demographic data, hindering accurate vulnerability assessments.

Despite challenges, the study estimates annual damages, projecting over 33,000 affected individuals and economic losses exceeding MXN 250 million (USD 14 million). The creation of risk maps for Villahermosa, albeit challenging with current data constraints, serves as an essential initial step. It calls for further research to develop comprehensive databases, fostering public awareness and informed territorial policies to address flood risks in Villahermosa and other flood-prone areas in Mexico.

The methodology employed in this study lays a robust foundation for flood risk management, community safety, and sustainable development. It not only aids in precise identification of flood-prone areas but also serves as a crucial tool for the scientific community to address hydrological hazards. Furthermore, it supports the evaluation of existing public policies and the formulation of more effective strategies for reducing losses and enhancing resilience.

How to cite: Bonasia, R., Ceragene, M., Cea, L., and Cuevas Cancino, M. D. L. O.: Crafting Flood Risk Maps and Intensifying Social Vulnerability Studies for Heightened Awareness and Damage Mitigation: Villahermosa, Mexico case, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3891, 2024.

09:25–09:35
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EGU24-9243
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NH9.15
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Anna Scaini and Chiara Scaini

Risk depends on the frequency and magnitude of river-related hazards, but also on the number, type and economic value of exposed assets (i.e. the exposure). For this reason, land use planning can increase or decrease the overall societal exposure to river-related risks. In this contribution, we bring together experiences that look into understanding and mapping the perception of river-related risks (both from and to the river) as well as riverine socio-cultural values linked to rivers, such as identity and sense of place. These connections between locals and rivers are essential to understand how to mitigate, adapt to, and revert the effects of human-induced changes on rivers. Using a transdisciplinary approach including questionnaires, interviews, a map-based participatory approach as well as evidence-based data on land and water use, biodiversity and risks, we look into how the perception of such values can influence water resources- and decision management in rivers including Tagliamento (Italy), Soča/Isonzo (Slovenia/Italy), and Upper Neretva (Bosnia-Herzegovina). We look into differences and commonalities in light of conflicting values, such as risk management, energy production and land use impacts on water resources and biodiversity, and transboundary water issues. We explore the synergies between river conservation efforts and ecosystem-based land use planning, and discuss the potential benefit of integrating local knowledge and historical evidence in assessing river-related hazards. 

How to cite: Scaini, A. and Scaini, C.: Uncovering the link between river conservation and disaster risk reduction through the invisible connection between people and rivers, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9243, 2024.

09:35–09:45
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EGU24-16779
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NH9.15
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Virtual presentation
Abraham Yosipof, Or Elroy, and Nadejda Komendantova

Social media platforms have a key role in spreading narratives about climate change, and therefore it is crucial to understand the discussion about climate change in social media. The discussion on anthropogenic climate change in general, and on social media specifically, has multiple different narratives. Understanding of the discourses can assist efforts of mitigation, adaptation, and policy measures development. In this work, we collected 333,635 tweets in English about anthropogenic climate change. We used Natural Language Processing (NLP) and machine learning methods to embed the semantic meaning of the tweets into vectors, cluster the tweets, and analyze the results. We clustered the tweets into four clusters that correspond to four narratives in the discussion. Analyzing the behavioral dynamics of each cluster revealed that the clusters focus on the discussion of whether climate change is caused by humans or not, scientific arguments, policy, and conspiracy. The research results can serve as input for media policy and awareness-raising measures on climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, and facilitating future communications related to climate change.

How to cite: Yosipof, A., Elroy, O., and Komendantova, N.: Cyber-Echoes of Climate Crisis: Unraveling Anthropogenic Climate Change Narratives on Social Media, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16779, 2024.

09:45–09:55
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EGU24-20422
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NH9.15
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On-site presentation
Matthias Garschagen, Deepal Doshi, Lena Grobusch, and Jan Petzold

Rapidly increasing climate risks result in a fundamental and quickly growing need for societies to adapt their settlements, infrastructure, managed ecosystems and social systems. In many contexts, this task is so large that is requires to significantly reconsider the roles and responsibilities different actors can and should have in it. Already today, many of the current risk management regimes and their institutionalized distributions of responsibilities are reaching their limits. For example, municipalities around the globe already face difficulties to maintain their established levels of flood risk protection and carry them into the future, hence arguing that private households and firms should more strongly take care of their own protection.

However, to date consistent frameworks to analyze the existing distribution of roles and responsibilities for adaptation and to guide a future debate on their re-distribution are lacking, both from an analytical as well as normative point of view. We therefore present and discuss a novel framework to that end, using the lens of social contracts. The framework builds on a comprehensive review of the theoretical literature and empirical data acquired in a range of adaptation projects across the globe. The framework differentiates between legalized, otherwise institutionalized, enacted and envisioned social contracts. It helps to not only lay open these individual dimensions but also to examine the rifts between them. It further proposes a typology of different social contracts with a view towards the level of agreement or disagreement different actors have on how they envision the distribution of roles and responsibilities. In doing so, the framework can be applied to different cultural settings across the globe as well as to the analysis and policy guidance from local to global scales. The framework takes temporal dynamics into account in order to effectively inform transition processes within the context of climate resilient development.

The presentation lays out the framework, illustrates it applicability along a number of case studies from different contexts across the globe and discusses its potential for wider application in what is deemed to be a critical decade not only in adaptation science but also adaptation action.

How to cite: Garschagen, M., Doshi, D., Grobusch, L., and Petzold, J.: Social contracts for climate change adaptation: an analytical and normative framework for the distribution of roles and responsibilities, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20422, 2024.

09:55–10:05
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EGU24-5873
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NH9.15
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On-site presentation
Soheil Mohammadi, Serena Cattari, Francesca Pirlone, Giorgio Boni, Ilenia Spadaro, Fabrizio Bruno, and Silvia De Angeli

Recovery planning is essential to ensure that communities build back better after a natural hazard event and ensure their long-term resilience. Involving stakeholders in recovery planning not only facilitates the accurate identification of recovery needs but also ensures the integration of a variety of viewpoints into recovery plans. Neglecting the varied perspectives arising from diverse stakeholder groups in urban areas when defining recovery objectives can lead to worsening inequality within the community.

Participatory planning acknowledged as a time-consuming process, stands in contrast to the timely interventions often demanded during post-disaster recovery. This urgency may potentially compromise both the effectiveness and equity of the participatory planning process. For this reason, it is essential to involve stakeholders and convince them to think about recovery plans before a disaster occurs, through participatory processes.

This study focuses on involving stakeholders in pre-disaster recovery planning for the identification of crucial urban functions for disaster recovery and their interdependencies. Local stakeholders have an in-depth knowledge of their urban system and are able to effectively convey the importance and interdependencies among various urban functions. Consequently, they can contribute to identifying the key urban elements that must remain functional after a disaster to ensure the initiation and progression of the recovery process.

The study employs a two-stage methodology. The first stage allows the delineation of the research objectives and the development of a participatory planning framework by means of focus groups and literature review. Initially, a focus group was conducted involving disaster risk management experts and mayors from various parts of Europe. Subsequently, a literature review has been undertaken based on the focus group findings to consolidate and refine the identified framework. The obtained framework includes 44 urban ‘functions’ divided into 6 different ‘resources’, which are required for the initiation and progression of the recovery process.

The second stage, which represents the core of this research, encompasses the application of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM). The framework developed in the first stage is used as input to engage local stakeholders in determining the most crucial functions and their interdependencies inside the urban system through the FCM approach. The FCM has been implemented in the city of Sanremo, in the western part of Liguria Region, Italy. A group of participants, representing different sectors, created their individual cognitive maps. The individual maps have been then aggregated into a single map, which has been analyzed through the perspectives of voting mechanisms and network analysis to determine the most important and impactful urban functions and their interdependencies that contribute to recovery in their municipality. As a result, beyond the functions designated as emergency service providers crucial for the response phase after a disaster, a set of functions essential for sustaining community livelihoods such as grocery stores, supermarkets, educational services, and pharmacies have been identified. Notably, these functions are centered around the temporary sheltering function, marking it as a pivotal element from the stakeholders' perspective in the recovery process.

How to cite: Mohammadi, S., Cattari, S., Pirlone, F., Boni, G., Spadaro, I., Bruno, F., and De Angeli, S.: A participatory planning approach for identifying crucial urban functions and their interdependencies for disaster recovery, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5873, 2024.

10:05–10:15
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EGU24-19861
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NH9.15
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solicited
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On-site presentation
Anna Maria Zaccaria

The role of citizens and local communities in disaster risk assessment, preparedness and mitigation has always been fundamental, but long obscured in public memory, in media translation and often also in scientific reading of natural disasters.

During recent years, the citizen science approach - which has become very popular -has drawn attention to the need for active involvement of citizens and communities to produce resilient responses to disasters, through inclusive and participatory bottom-up activities.More specifically, it can increase resilience by building the collective and self-efficacy of individuals, organisations, and communities; above all , it can help to recognize and nurture the local social capital, trust and sense of community. In addition, it can make it possible to exploit previous experiences of disaster governance (e.g. through local memories), activating a knowledge transfer process useful for preparing and responding to catastrophes.

Many factors interact on capacity of individuals, communities, and institutions to respond to disasters (e.g., Lindell & Prater, 2002; Paton & Johnston, 2006): the collective and self-efficacy (Paton & Johnston, 2006; Paton et al., 2010); outcome expectancy, action coping, leadership, individual and community empowerment, trust, sense of community, and place attachment (Aldrich & Meyer, 2014; Norris, Stevens, Pfefferbaum, Wyche, & Pfefferbaum, 2008); and so on.

These factors interact in a "social space-time" in which the socio-cultural characteristics of contexts , the role played by institutional decision-makers, by regulations, by the times of actions become very important.

Here we present an overview of some case studies carried out in Italy, focused on contexts affected by natural disasters, particularly harmful from a physical and social point of view. These case studies can be useful to highlight factors/conditions that can hinder or encourage forms of community resilience in the response to events.

How to cite: Zaccaria, A. M.: Spaces of resilience. Citizen science for community resilience building, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19861, 2024.

Posters on site: Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X4

The posters scheduled for on-site presentation are only visible in the poster hall in Vienna. If authors uploaded their presentation files, these files are linked from the abstracts below, but only on the day of the poster session.
Display time: Wed, 17 Apr 08:30–Wed, 17 Apr 12:30
Chairpersons: Viktor Rözer, Alexandre Pereira Santos, Caroline Michellier
The urban impact on the occurrence of natural hazards: case-studies
X4.83
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EGU24-2451
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NH9.15
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ECS
Ugur Ozturk, Sara Manuela Nieto Lopera, and Edier Vicente Aristizabal Giraldo

The metropolitan area of Medellin, Colombia, gradually expanded toward steep hillslopes due to the constraining rugged topography surrounding the city. Steeper hillslopes are more prone to landslides by default. When combined with inadequate planning due to high population pressure, the landslide risk in the city increases disproportionately. 

We analyzed the city's expansion in 18 time steps since 1770. In particular, we explored the empirical relation between urban growth and landslide occurrences. From 1976 to 2023, the city nearly duplicated its area, going from 56 km2 to 110 km2. We showed that gradually, steeper hillslopes were urbanized, especially since 1941, accompanied by a growing proportion of land in high landslide hazard zones. We also found that landslide activity predominantly occurred on the outskirts of the urban area at any given time, resulting in harm primarily to newly emerged neighbourhoods.

Within the study period, in 2005, when areal images were available, we also categorized the metropolitan area into consolidated urbanization, i.e., compact regular mesh, compact irregular mesh, condominiums, and equipment; and unbound urbanization, i.e., level I: scarce urbanization, level II: road deficit/scattered urbanization, and level III: urbanization scattered around an axis. 

We assigned each category to variables such as hillslope angles, landslide hazards, and socioeconomic strata. Unbound urbanization was identified on steeper hillslopes, coinciding with poorer communities. Hence, we conclude that the persistent expansion of Medellin into landslide-prone areas poses a considerable threat to the population, especially those with limited opportunities in deprived neighbourhoods. By documenting the city's evolution in relation to landslide occurrences, we want to emphasize the pressing landslide risk to local and international policymakers.

How to cite: Ozturk, U., Nieto Lopera, S. M., and Aristizabal Giraldo, E. V.: Centennial landslide risk evolution in Medellin, Colombia, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2451, 2024.

X4.84
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EGU24-14870
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NH9.15
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ECS
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Shobhana Lakhera, Michel Jaboyedoff, Marc-Henri Derron, Ajanta Goswami, and Deepak Kc

The study highlights the current situation of displacement activities in Joshimath town of Uttarakhand Himalayas. Positioned in the vicinity of Viakrita and Pandukeshwar thrust, the town is situated on an old landslide and glacial moraine material, and rests on giant gneiss boulders embedded in loose sand matrix (Bhattacharya et al, 1982). Consequently, the slopes are prone to movements like mass wasting and related land subsidence. Moreover, the decadal rise in population, unplanned infrastructure, and toe cutting from Dhauli Ganga river has exacerbated the immense pressure on the already vulnerable slopes.

Thus, to understand the cause-impact and the current situation of displacement activity in Joshimath town, the historical and technical findings by previous studies were assessed with respect to the present on-ground situation of displacements and compared to the people’s perception of these disturbances. The historical evidence suggests that slope creep and related subsidence in Joshimath dates from the1960’s and has since been reappearing (Sati et al. 2023). Different technical studies have linked the cause of displacements in Joshimath to land subsidence, groundwater fluctuation and infrastructure overburden with less stress on the landslide displacement being the primary factor. Thus, a comprehensive mapping of landslide scars was done, and it was found that the recorded ground cracks and damaged buildings corresponded well with the mapped landslide scars. The recent field studies conducted in December 2023, suggested that people of Joshimath are not unaware of the landslide activities along the rim regions of Joshimath slope, and at least two communities in the past had to relocate to uphill areas, due to increased toe cutting and slope destabilization along Dhauli Ganga River. Moreover, according to the locals, slope destabilization and related subsidence in Joshimath was exacerbated post the 7th Feburary 2021 debris flow and successive heavy rainfall events in October 2021. Satellite images also suggest the reactivation of old landslides due to toe cutting after the 2021 event and similar destabilization was also triggered post the 2013 flash floods (Sharma et al., 2014). The field observations also highlighted the presence of new cracks and fissures on roads, fields, and repaired constructions. Thus, the increase in toe cutting, followed by slope failures may lead to upslope progression of landslide scars. Also 99% of buildings in Joshimath are non-compliant with the national building codes of 2016, and most of the adversely affected buildings lie in regions on steep slopes of hill (CBRI, 2023). Consequently, the unplanned infrastructure development along such unstable old landslide scars could accelerate slope instability.

Keywords: Displacement, Landslides, cracks, toe-cutting, infrastructure

How to cite: Lakhera, S., Jaboyedoff, M., Derron, M.-H., Goswami, A., and Kc, D.: Understanding the historical, technical, and local perception of displacement activity in Joshimath town of Uttarakhand, India, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14870, 2024.

X4.85
|
EGU24-17950
|
NH9.15
|
ECS
Bokjin Ro and Hongbong Park

Climate change, one of the most remarked anthropogenic changes, has increased the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. Heavy rainfall events pose challenges especially in urban areas, which have a higher rate of impervious surface, compared to non-urban areas. Seoul, the capital city of South Korea is not an exception for the cities that contend with flooding. During summer, the meteorological condition forming over the Korean peninsula brings rainfall constituting approximately 35-55% of the country’s annual precipitation. Seoul has undergone rapid development and urbanization, which also are the examples of anthropogenic changes, for the last five decades; the city’s current population is about 4.7 times larger than that of the early 1960s. This fast population increase created a distinctive housing type known as semi-basement housing, symbolizing socioeconomic marginalization. Despite ongoing efforts by the Seoul Metropolitan Government to mitigate flood risk citywide, most of the households living in the semi-basement housing, particularly in low-lying areas, remain highly susceptible to flooding whenever heavy rainfall events occur. This study focuses on Gwanak-gu, one of Seoul’s 25 districts and the district with the highest concentration of semi-basement housing. The study examines how anthropogenic changes in both physical (i.e., climate change) and social (i.e., urban development and urbanization) environment exacerbate the already marginalized people’s vulnerability floods. The results show that the same amount of heavy rainfall (e.g., 100mm per hour) pouring in the district significantly heightens the level of exposure for the semi-basement housing than the exposure level of housing that is not semi-basement. This implies that the climate change and urban development and urbanization (i.e., anthropogenic changes) make the vulnerable people even more vulnerable, even as the measures aim to alleviate overall flood risk across the city have been implemented. In other words, anthropogenic changes, even though the government’s risk mitigation efforts exist, tend to polarize the vulnerability and exposure to floods. Drawing from the results, the study emphasizes the need for more considerate measures to truly reduce the flood risk of the city. It concludes by suggesting potential strategies that could contribute to reducing flood vulnerability of the marginalized populations and lowering overall flood risk in the city.

How to cite: Ro, B. and Park, H.: The impact of anthropogenic changes on socioeconomically marginalized population in urban areas: A case study of flood risk in Seoul, South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17950, 2024.

The active role of citizens in disaster risk assessment and mitigation
X4.86
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EGU24-19009
|
NH9.15
Germán D. Padilla, Nemesio M. Pérez, Carmen López, Rubén López, Pedro A. Hernández, David Moure, Luca D'Auria, Pedro Torres, José Barrancos, Gladys V. Melián, Daniel D'Nardo, Alexis M. González, and Antonio Álvarez

Anomalous CO2 degassing were observed by the end of November 2021 in the neighborhoods of La Bombilla and Puerto Naos, and some banana plantations, located at the North-West flank of Cumbre Vieja volcano ridge, La Palma island, at about 6 km distance southwestern of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption vents. These urban areas, not directly damaged by lava flows, were included in the exclusion zone due to the strong volcanic-hydrothermal carbon dioxide emissions (CO2>5-20%). CO2 is an invisible toxic gas, as well as asphyxiant gas, and may be lethal when is present in concentrations higher than 14V%.

During the last two years, several institutions deployed indoor and outdoor own gas networks, to try to delimitate the CO2 anomalies where CO2 air concentration exceed hazardous thresholds, but with an insufficient number of CO2 sensors (less than 100) to cover all homes, garages, basements and stores in real time. These studies aim to understand the dynamics of CO2 emission to delimitate the CO2 anomalies where CO2 air concentration exceed the hazardous thresholds, and help the authorities’ decision-making of people's return to their homes and stores.

The ALERTACO2 project was born with the objective of implementing a much more extensive network of CO2 sensors (1,200) sensors in most of the building of both inhabited areas, the creation of a 24-hour monitoring room and an information and awareness campaign for the population about this volcanic hazard. The financing (3M EUROS) comes from the Spanish Government, and has the participation of the National Geographic Institute (IGN) and the Volcanological Institute of the Canary Islands (INVOLCAN).

Each sensor has a color light code to indicate the CO2 concentration (green, yellow, orange and blue if the sensor is not working), and a QR code to view the information remotely. So far 35% of the 1,200 sensors have been installed inside and outside homes of both urban areas (including beaches and Sol Melia Hotel). Each sensor sends the data to the 24-hour monitoring room via a gateway installed at the roof of each building. Thanks to the project, some families in the area marked green have been able to return to their homes in safety conditions in December 2023 since their homes CO2 concentrations were below 1,000 ppm.

How to cite: Padilla, G. D., Pérez, N. M., López, C., López, R., Hernández, P. A., Moure, D., D'Auria, L., Torres, P., Barrancos, J., Melián, G. V., D'Nardo, D., González, A. M., and Álvarez, A.: ALERTA CO2: An alert system to monitor and mitigate the hazard associated with high concentrations of indoor and outdoor air CO2 at the inhabited areas of Puerto Naos and La Bombilla, La Palma, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19009, 2024.

X4.87
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EGU24-18272
|
NH9.15
David Afonso Falcón, Claudia Rodríguez-Pérez, Adriana Quezada-Ugalde, GInevra Chelli, Grace James, Kenza Rahli, José G. Cantero, Beverley C. Coldwell, Carmen Solana, Fátima Rodríguez, Eleazar adrón, Nemesio M. Pérez, Pedro A. Hernández, Gladys V. Melián, German Padilla, and María Asensio-Ramos

The entire Canarian Archipelago can be considered a volcanically active area and its volcanic risk is now much higher than 50 years ago as a result of the actual high levels of population and socio-economic value exposure to the volcanic hazards present on the territory. The knowledge of perception of volcanic hazards and volcanic risk of different groups of the society will be essential to develop an effective reduction volcanic risk strategy as a collective responsibility. The different groups can be communication professionals, tourists, urban and territorial planners and the general public, among others. While some may have more specific roles and responsibilities in this endeavor, visitors and tourists can make a significant contribution to volcanic risk management efforts. The Canary Islands register between 8 to 13 millions of visitors every year (source: Statistics National Institute-INE), what means a significant number of floating populations visiting an active volcanic area. This research aims to assess the level of understanding and interest that tourists have about volcanoes and volcanic risk management in Canary Islands, and to examine the potential and desired role of the tourists in enhancing the effectiveness of volcanic risk management efforts.

To assess tourists' perceptions of volcanic hazards and risks on Tenerife, we have designed a face-to-face questionnaire. The questionnaire consists of approximately 30 questions and is completed in about 10 or 15 minutes. Approximately 20% of the questionnaire covers demographic data, while questions about volcanic phenomenon and volcanic risk management account for roughly 40%, with the remaining 40% centered on respondents' perception of volcanic hazards and risks. The questionnaire was released from July 18 to the end of September 2023, with a total of 419 tourists surveyed.

How to cite: Afonso Falcón, D., Rodríguez-Pérez, C., Quezada-Ugalde, A., Chelli, G., James, G., Rahli, K., Cantero, J. G., Coldwell, B. C., Solana, C., Rodríguez, F., adrón, E., Pérez, N. M., Hernández, P. A., Melián, G. V., Padilla, G., and Asensio-Ramos, M.: Tourists' perception of volcanic hazards and volcanic risk in Tenerife Island, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18272, 2024.

X4.88
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EGU24-12454
|
NH9.15
Daniela Cerda, Adelina Geyer, Xavier Bolós, Dario Pedrazzi, and Julie Morin

Nowadays, volcanic eruptions pose a significant threat to society, particularly in monogenetic volcanic fields where prolonged recurrence periods lead to increased human settlements in their vicinity. This is mostly attributed to a false sense of security within the community potentially exposed to a future eruptive event. Such misconceptions often result in a lack of preparedness programs and resilience capabilities for potential future eruptions.

In this context, the city of Olot (~34,400 inhabitants, Catalonia, Spain), located within the Garrotxa volcanic field, serves as an example of human settlement around monogenetic volcanoes, which the last known eruption occurred ~ 10.4 – 15.7 ka ago. Although communities residing in this volcanic field demonstrate a sound understanding of their environment, there is a prevalent misconception regarding volcanic hazards, which often leads to perceive the area as inactive or even extinct. 

To evaluate the perception of volcanic risk among the population of Olot, we have conducted a survey segmented by age groups. The main objectives are: (i) identifying knowledge gaps and misconceptions within the population; (ii) analyzing the factors most relevant in determining risk perception within the community; (iii) contributing to the assessment of the population's resilience in the face of a future eruptive event: and (iv) ultimately evaluating the contrast between the perception of the Olot community and its actual volcanic risk. This work was funded by the BECAS CHILE- ANID, PhD Scholarship Abroad, announcement 2022/Folio 72220257.

How to cite: Cerda, D., Geyer, A., Bolós, X., Pedrazzi, D., and Morin, J.: Perception of volcanic risk in communities close to a monogenetic volcanic field: the case of Olot (Garrotxa Volcanic Field, Catalonia), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12454, 2024.

X4.89
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EGU24-2012
|
NH9.15
|
ECS
|
Edlira Xhafaj, Chiara Scaini, Antonella Peresan, and Hany M. Hassan

The ultimate aims of this study is to assess the risk associated with plausible earthquake generated tsunamis along the coasts of Albania, adopting a case study approach based on the modelling of tsunamigenic earthquake scenarios based on the maximum moment magnitude (Mmax) reported in DISS-3.3 joint with the 2019 Mw6.4 Durres earthquake source models. In order to assess the expected impact, we computed the tsunami hazard in terms of maximum amplitude, estimated time of arrivals and inundation zone on the Albanian coast for a set of tsunamis resulting from potential earthquakes generated by the major identified seismogenic sources (namely, Lushnje source from DISS-3.3 database) in the eastern Adriatic Sea. Our approach combines current available information on regional tectonics, recent earthquake swarms in 2019 in scenario-based approach to contribute to tsunami risk assessment for the selected urban area along the Albanian Adriatic coast. The goal is to analyse the propagation of tsunami waves generated by the source set of scenarios, which is potentially able to generate an aggregated scenario of Mmax 7.5, that could cause significant impacts in the region. The modelling are performed by NAMI DANCE numerical code (e.g., Dogan et al., 2021, Natural Hazards, 106(2), 1195–1221; and references therein). For the exposure analysis concerning buildings, landuse and infrastructure, a Geographic Information System (GIS) formatted database is created for the Durres municipality. The Durres exposure analysis in terms of population and built environment were presented in the form of maps, and provide insights for future evacuation plans. Approximately 63% of the buildings consist of single-storey structures, and the number of exposed buildings strongly increased during the period 2000 to 2010. Understanding the composition and construction timelines of the buildings is crucial in assessing their vulnerability and potential impact associated to the simulated tsunamis scenarios. Regarding human impact, the exposure analysis indicates vulnerability in residential, commercial, and public service areas. In Durres city only, the expected population by 2036, estimated at 138,000 inhabitants according to the National Agency of Territorial Planning (AKTP, 2022), will be located in vulnerable urban areas. The results highlight the significant vulnerability of the most important sectors in Durres to possible tsunamis and the need for a rigorous urban planning and enforcement to mitigate future seismic related hazards. This study provides the first extensive examination of urban-scale tsunami risk assessment for cities along the Albanian coastline, highlighting the paramount role of exposure and vulnerability assessment to increase preparedness and inform resilient urban planning.

How to cite: Xhafaj, E., Scaini, C., Peresan, A., and Hassan, H. M.: Tsunami Impacts Scenarios for the Albanian Coasts: Durres City case study, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2012, 2024.

Citizen-centered, science-based approaches to enhance risk governance
X4.90
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EGU24-2108
|
NH9.15
|
ECS
|
|
Dominic Sett, Lena C. Grobusch, Ulrike Schinkel, Chau Le Dang Bao, Chau Nguyen Dang Giang, Linh Nguyen Hoang Khanh, Matthias Garschagen, and Michael Hagenlocher

Flood risks are exacerbating around the globe, often exceeding capacities to adapt, thus leaving people at risk and raising critical questions on how adaptation gaps can be overcome. In response to observed flood protection gaps, a behavioural turn in flood risk management is observed (Kuhlicke et al. 2020). This turn is characterised by an increased motivation of households to engage in individual flood protection on the one hand and institutionally shifted responsibilities from public authorities towards individuals on the other. This however evokes critical social, political, and ethical questions on the role and contribution of households (and other actors) in risk management. Therefore, our research aims to explore how contributions to flood risk management are divided between households, different levels of government, and other actors on paper vs. in practice, by highlighting key empirical research findings from the case study of Hue, a flood-prone urban region in Central Vietnam. Methodologically, the study draws upon a qualitative content analysis of national and provincial legal flood risk governance documents and statistical analyses of household survey results (n=606) from March and April 2023. Conceptually, the research draws on social contract theory (Blackburn & Pelling 2018) to reveal differences between the legal-institutional, perceived, and practised social contracts for flood risk management, including underlying drivers for observed disparities.

On paper, public authorities at different levels of government (from national to local) are legally assigned a primary role in flood risk management, particularly when it comes to financing, preparedness, and response. At the same time, 60% of surveyed households perceive themselves as being the most responsible actor for flood risk management. Hence, households attribute a significantly higher level of responsibility for engaging in flood risk adaptation to themselves as opposed to local and national government authorities, civil society, foreign aid actors, and the private sector. In practice, a significant share of households (89%) has engaged in diverse temporary preparedness and response actions during past flooding incidents, such as placing sandbags in front of the house. However, only few households (16%) have engaged in permanent actions such as elevating the house floor, and only 5% have implemented these actions proactively, highlighting a significant gap for adaptive actions compared to coping interventions. The assessment of underlying drivers of perceived and practised social contracts revealed that amongst other factors, income and risk perception particularly shape perceived responsibility to act, while past experiences and coping appraisal shape people’s motivation to act. The presentation concludes with context-specific policy recommendations and avenues for future research that can contribute to closing flood risk management gaps. All-in-all, the presentation thus provides novel insights for navigating complex questions around flood risk management contribution divisions between different stakeholders, and more specifically understanding and optimising household engagement in flood risk governance practice in Hue and other cities facing similar challenges.

How to cite: Sett, D., Grobusch, L. C., Schinkel, U., Le Dang Bao, C., Nguyen Dang Giang, C., Nguyen Hoang Khanh, L., Garschagen, M., and Hagenlocher, M.: How are households contributing to flood risk management? Empirical evidence from a highly flood-prone urban region in Central Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2108, 2024.

X4.91
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EGU24-15111
|
NH9.15
|
ECS
Christine Heinzel

Natural hazards, particularly floods, pose significant threats to societies, demanding effective risk management strategies. In some nations, such as China and Vietnam, flood risk management historically followed a predominantly top-down approach, with limited citizen involvement in decision-making processes. Despite past success of this approach in minimizing losses, the escalating frequency and intensity of floods, driven by climate change, raise questions about solely relaying on conventional methods. In addition to or due to a lack of governmental initiatives, individuals and households often employ their own distinctive adaptation approaches, demonstrating a form of "bottom-up resilience". Without idealizing either approach, integrating aspects of both strategies and ultimately initiating a transformation of flood risk management is necessary to prevent exceeding capacity limits. However, there is still a profound lack of understanding how to genuinely enable transformation, especially in practical terms. Due to their potential to facilitate change, leverage points – places to intervene within a complex system – are becoming increasingly important in system research as a lens for evaluating and planning interventions that support transformation. However, existing research rarely considers leverage points in the context of identifying interventions with transformative potential in flood risk management.

This presentation attempts to fill the gap in research by providing a framework for identifying deep leverage points crucial in the intricate dynamics among individuals, communities, and governments in flood risk management, while acknowledging the challenges, limitations and possibilities inherent in bridging top-down and bottom-up approaches. To overcome the gap between theory and practical implementation, the utilization of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) is proposed to simulate and analyze the impact of concrete interventions at the identified leverage points. An expected result from the ABM includes more in-depth knowledge on the effectiveness of trainings or platforms for information exchange, and about responsibilities within communities as an entry point to enhance community resilience to floods. The model results will provide a tangible and dynamic representation of the potential outcomes of integrated strategies, offering valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners alike.

How to cite: Heinzel, C.: A Trigger for Transformation? Exploring Leverage Points to Bridge Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches in Flood Risk Management, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15111, 2024.

X4.92
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EGU24-10811
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NH9.15
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ECS
|
Nadejda Komendantova and Dmitry Erokhin

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of participatory elements in climate change adaptation policies at both the EU level and within national contexts, focusing on Germany and Spain. The study delves into the crucial role of co-production and citizen engagement in shaping effective climate adaptation strategies. The research methodology involves policy identification and selection, analysis of participatory elements, and the application of Arnstein's ladder of citizen participation to evaluate the level of citizen engagement in the identified policies. The analysis reveals the diverse mechanisms and approaches employed to foster inclusive and participatory processes in climate adaptation policies. The study highlights the significance of stakeholder involvement, consultation mechanisms, transparency, capacity building, and feedback mechanisms in shaping robust climate adaptation strategies. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of citizen participation in driving transformative climate adaptation initiatives, emphasizing the need for broad geographical representation, inclusive approaches, and the integration of diverse knowledge systems. The study identifies gaps and areas for improvement in the participatory elements of the analyzed policies, emphasizing the need for more comprehensive mechanisms to engage the general public and vulnerable communities in the adaptation planning process. It also underscores the importance of systematic studies of gaps and barriers to stakeholder participation and the representation of marginalized communities in adaptation planning and decision-making processes. The paper offers valuable insights into the participatory elements of climate change adaptation policies, providing a nuanced understanding of the approaches employed at both the EU and national levels. The findings contribute to the ongoing discourse on inclusive and effective climate adaptation strategies, emphasizing the need for continuous improvement and the meaningful involvement of diverse stakeholders in shaping resilient climate futures.

How to cite: Komendantova, N. and Erokhin, D.: Participation in climate change adaptation , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10811, 2024.

X4.93
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EGU24-19362
|
NH9.15
|
ECS
|
Tahere Zobeidi and Nadejda Komendantova

The daily dissemination of a substantial amount of information concerning to disasters and crises on social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram and Twitter in one side, and the sensitivity of this information, on the other hand, underscores the importance of evaluating the credibility of online information in this area. Fact-checking tools employing artificial intelligence represent a novel approach to verifying the validity of online information across various fields, including disaster management. The inclination of individuals to utilize fact-checking tools in such circumstances is influenced by their perceptions. Although there is a limited studies on the impact of perceptions and information processing on the intention to employ fact-checking tools in disaster-related contexts, it is anticipated that factors like critical thinking, as a concept that involves meticulous assessment of unclear or requiring careful consideration, heuristic processing, a concept indicating acceptance of news content without filtering, and the new-source tracking a concept demonstrating openness and positivity towards social media information, play pivotal roles in predicting this intention. Consequently, a conceptual framework was formulated wherein critical thinking, aside from its direct impact on the intention to use fact-checking tools, also exerts influence through two mediators of information processing and the new source tracking variables. This study's framework was examined using data from 202 respondents across various European countries, collected through an online survey. The conceptual framework analysised utilizing AMOS software. Descriptive findings indicate a moderate level of familiarity with misinformation detection tools among respondents (M=2.65; sd=1.04). Respondents exhibited close knowledge levels regarding fact-checking tools such as Rbutr, Foller, me and Botometer, Fakespot, NewsGuard, and Greek Hoaxes Detector, ranging between approximately (1.57-1.70). Contrary to initial expectations, the study's results reveal that critical thinking, was unable to directly predict the intention to use fact-checking tools. However, the indirect effect of critical thinking was confirmed through the two mediators of new source tracking and information processing (heuristic processing). Critical thinking significantly influenced the new source tracking (β=.49; p <0.0001) and heuristic processing (β=.41; p <0.0001). Both new source tracking (β=.19; p=0.043) and heuristic information processing (β=.31; p=0.001) emerged as direct predictors of the intention to use fact-checking tools. The evidence examined in this study provides empirical support that the conceptual framework has been able to predict 22% of the changes in the intention to use fact checking tools and still a significant amount of it needs to be researched.

How to cite: Zobeidi, T. and Komendantova, N.: Intention to apply Artificial Intelligence using fact checking tools in disaster management, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19362, 2024.

X4.94
|
EGU24-19300
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NH9.15
|
ECS
Rosa Vicari, Or Elroy, Nadejda Komendantova, and Abraham Yosipof

Following the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing, the ensuing discussions in the media and on social platforms highlighted the potential of terrorism to deepen societal divisions. This study investigates the dynamics of rumors on social media and in the press after the attack, as well as the subsequent discourse on migration policies. We compiled a dataset comprising 3,184 press articles and 89,148 tweets pertaining to the Manchester Arena bombing. The research aims to identify prevalent rumors, assess their short- and long-term effects on user engagement, analyze the sentiment in tweets related to each rumor, and scrutinize perceptions of terrorism threats and migration policies among both the press and Twitter users.

The findings reveal that Twitter acted as an echo chamber for misinformation, amplifying specific rumors related to the attack, while the press demonstrated fact-checking practices and offered nuanced perspectives. Notably, one rumor suggesting the attacker was a refugee gained traction over time, reflecting a surge in anti-immigrant sentiments. Emotional responses on Twitter varied from a neutral tone to heightened distress and anger, underscoring the significant impact of social media narratives on public sentiment. The research highlights the polarization of views on social media, influenced by the concise format of tweets and the rapid production cycle, with Twitter users predominantly expressing very negative attitudes toward immigration. This study emphasizes the crucial role of the media in dispelling misinformation and cultivating a nuanced public understanding in complex socio-political contexts.

How to cite: Vicari, R., Elroy, O., Komendantova, N., and Yosipof, A.: Persistence of Rumours and Hate Speech Over the Years: the Manchester Arena Bombing , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19300, 2024.

X4.95
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EGU24-6345
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NH9.15
|
ECS
Deepal Doshi and Matthias Garschagen

Adapting to climate change impacts requires a coherent social contract in which different actors agree on a clear distribution of roles and responsibilities. It is hence important to understand what roles and responsibilities different actors in a city or other social system expect and how they negotiate to ultimately arrive at a shared vision for a coherent social contract on adaptation for the coming decades. An urgent requirement is to understand the imagined social contracts on expected roles and responsibilities, which is particularly relevant in cities where very diverse social groups come together. However, there is limited empirical evidence on these expectations as they are often tacit and hard to capture across large populations and heterogeneous groups. Here using the concept of social listening in combination with Twitter data we assess the social contract on flood risk management in Mumbai. Social media data offer a new data source to inductively capture and assess the exchange and negotiations of roles and responsibilities of different actors such as public sector, citizens, civil society and private sector, including nuanced sentiments and opinions. In order to understand the imagined social contracts by different actors in Mumbai, we captured all flood risk related tweets over the monsoon season of 2021 (~70,000 tweets). We collected data through specific hashtag and keyword combinations. We manually coded the tweets in order to show the major themes in the dominant debate on flood risk management and filtered the most relevant tweets for the social contract analysis. The tweets were subsequently coded and analysed more comprehensively (e.g. for underlying sentiments).

Overall, our results show that there are gaps in the social contract on flood risk management in Mumbai on two levels: first, between different social contracts such as the practiced and imagined or the legal-institutional and imagined and, second, between different imagined social contracts. On the former, we found a large gap between the aspirational and realistic levels of expectations from the public sector. On the latter, we found surprisingly stark contestations regarding the roles and responsibilities towards the poor and most vulnerable populations living in informal and highly flood-prone settlements. Sentiments such as frustration and apathy expressed in tweets explain these gaps and highlight the need to build trust for achieving accepted and effective social contracts for adaptation. The results suggest that laying open these gaps is a necessary first step towards closing them and building a coherent future social contract. Twitter is an upcoming arena to negotiate and express opinions between different actors and hence, an important empirical database for analysing evolving social contracts. We suggest that such social listening approaches using Twitter or other platforms of active exchange can be of great relevance in high-risk contexts, including urban areas, across the globe in which different actors are faced with a high adaptation pressure and diverse competing, or even conflicting perspectives but currently lack a clear and agreed strategy or even vision to jointly move adaptation forward.

How to cite: Doshi, D. and Garschagen, M.: Assessing social contracts for climate change adaptation through social listening on Twitter: general considerations and urban application, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6345, 2024.