Community input for a how-to guide for using fire models.

We, the fire science community (and friends), are increasingly asked to provide information about drivers and the impact of fire and make fire projections under future climate and land use change. While the current generation of fire models has skill at modelling certain aspects of global fire regimes, many uncertainties remain. Most models struggle to represent extreme fires and often disagree over future changes in burning. We are collating information on good practices of fire model applications that consider or robustly reduce these uncertainties. These include single or multi-global fire model output, and new and novel modelling and statistical techniques, either in isolated studies or larger projects that contain multiple studies.

The aim is to provide a guide to using fire models for science and policy and a roadmap for development pathways. Thereby moving the community forward to help answer some of the urgent fire-related questions in our changing world. We aim to highlight the fantastic work of many in the community at designing and implementing robust scientific integrity in their analysis. Excellent work already identified often involves tailored modelling and evaluation techniques for specific questions, developing ways to quantify uncertainty, and statistical methods to extract relevant information from models based on historical performance. But there is certainly more we don’t know about!

Can you tell us how and when fire model evaluation has helped inform or adapt a research question? How do you account for fire model uncertainties? We especially want to hear from you if you're unsure or don't think your research is entirely relevant. Maybe we've missed that vital aspect of fire science!? 

To contribute, fill out the questionnaire, jam board, or request an interview at https://forms.gle/NJPEShq6V1ky3Dbv5. Or come talk to us at EGU and fill out our interactive poster!