BG8.7 | Extreme fires and their impacts
EDI
Extreme fires and their impacts
Co-organized by NH7
Convener: Chantelle Burton | Co-conveners: D. I. Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stefan Doerr, Liana O. Anderson
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 2.23
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X1
Posters virtual
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X1
Orals |
Fri, 16:15
Fri, 10:45
Fri, 14:00
In recent decades, extreme fire events have become increasingly common, exemplified by the recent fire seasons in Greece, Canada, Hawaii, California, Australia, Amazonia, the Arctic and the Pantanal. While these extremes and megafires have an exponential impact on society and all aspects of the earth system, there is much to learn about their characteristics, drivers, links to climate change, and how to quantify their impacts, as well as mitigation and prevention strategies and tools.

One area of attention is how extreme fires are currently represented by different fire models. Due to their stochastic nature, uncertainty in observations, and the challenge of representing local processes within global models, extreme fires and their impacts still present a challenge to coupled modelling. The big data science models and machine learning approaches show promise in representing extremes but are weak in coupling feedbacks to vegetation, soils and the wider Earth System.

We also welcome case studies of regional extreme wildfire events, their impacts, and prevention and mitigation strategy experiences worldwide. We encourage contributions from a wide range of disciplines, including global, regional, and landscape modelling, statistical and process-based modelling, observations and field studies, science and social science studies on all temporal scales. In this session, we aim to share knowledge across multiple disciplines, from science to decision-makers and practitioners, to help overcome the challenges that wildfires pose to our models and our society.

We aim to explore the significance and interactions of extreme wildfires and their impacts on society and the earth system and identify the current gaps in our understanding to help us prepare for and mitigate future extreme wildfire events.

Orals: Fri, 19 Apr | Room 2.23

Chairpersons: Chantelle Burton, Stefan Doerr
16:15–16:20
16:20–16:30
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EGU24-12734
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solicited
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On-site presentation
Niels Andela

Natural ecosystems are fundamental to biodiversity and reaching net-zero, but are at increasing risk from disturbance events like drought and fire. Across many landscapes, fire responds non-linearly to drought and temperature changes, obscuring evolving fire risk until critical thresholds are breached. In particular, in the absence of natural or human-made barriers, growing fire perimeters result in non-linear increases of daily burned area over the lifetime of any individual fire. Fuel conditions and structure further determine the velocity at which fires can spread across the landscape. Predicting fire extremes remains notoriously difficult due to these non-linear responses and complex interactions of natural and managed landscapes, short observational time-series from satellites, and rapid regional trends in climate and human activity. 

 

One potential new avenue of exploring fire extremes is through the use of novel object-based fire inventories, like the Global Fire Atlas or Amazon Dashboard. Here we use these novel approaches to assess several recently unfolding fire extremes, with special attention to South America. We find that fire extremes can both unfold within a single season or drought year, as well as over the course of multiple years with continued heightened fire activity across a particular landscape. Further characterization of fire types, based on unique characteristics of each fire object, helps better separate climate and land-use driven variability and change in fire extremes. Our results provide novel insights in the underlying mechanisms driving exceptional fire activity, which can inform estimates of future change and land management strategies.

How to cite: Andela, N.: New insights on global fire extremes from object-based fire inventories, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12734, 2024.

Tools
16:30–16:40
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EGU24-3376
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Simon Bowring, Wei Li, Florent Mouillot, Thais Rosan, and Philippe Ciais

Wildfire cause, effect and severity are driven by interactions between an array of climatic, biotic, and anthropogenic factors at multiple spatio-temporal scales.  While a broad theory of fire causation has been unveiled by a vast body of in vivo, in vitro and satellite studies, this complexity and wildfire’s destructive nature have precluded large-scale experimentation of remaining unresolved drivers and mechanics. This hampers theoretical advances for fire prediction at scale, acutely so where global climate and anthropogenic change amplifies hitherto minor or only-hypothesised processes.  Here, we show that where process representation is task-sufficient and appropriate, global land surface models can step in to infer and resolve these theoretical gaps.  This is possible precisely because these models currently fail to reproduce observed burned area and/or fire intensity patterns in a substantive number of space-time and biome-level configurations, despite reasonable performance at global and annual scales.  These in turn provide clues towards the primary theoretical deficiencies in contemporary fire ecology, as well as a platform for resolving them.

 

We present two studies that achieve this, which suggest that appropriate construction of model protocols enables hypothesis testing that can reject the null where simulation outcomes simultaneously meet both alternative hypothesis criteria and expected simulation improvements with respect to observed patterns, paving the way for improved theoretical understanding and predictive capacity.

 

The first study constructs a simplified yet powerful proxy for anthropogenic land fragmentation’s effects on fire activity at global scale.  Including this complex interaction of increased human ignition potential, fire size constriction, wind infiltration and land surface desiccation drives fire decreases in temperate and cold areas of moderate to high population density, while causing substantial increases in tropical areas subject to high levels of fragmentation.  In aggregate, including fragmentation effects decreased simulated global burned area by -6% and increased it by +5% (-1% net), while 7% of grid cells’ fire activity was affected by >25%.  These results were consistent with both global and regional (e.g. Brazil, Indonesia) -scale statistical and fire-fragmentation relationships.  

The second study provides a solution for representing the critical bifurcation of fire phenomena and severity between boreal Eurasia and North America, previously unachievable in global land surface models. Our solution results in wide-ranging improvements to the simulated space-time patterns of boreal burned area, fire intensity and their divergence.  The initial theoretical gap was addressed by hypothesizing that a previously described (Rogers et al., 2015) vegetation -and hence fire -ecology split between the two continents could be fundamentally defined by a top-down (climatic) signal, rather than the bottom-up (vegetation) driver identified by that study, which cascaded into ground/crown fire probability, fire spread and combustion dynamics. 

Process-based theoretical inference, in combination with high resolution machine learning techniques, may pave the way for future advances in global-scale fire ecology.

How to cite: Bowring, S., Li, W., Mouillot, F., Rosan, T., and Ciais, P.: Inferring extreme fire theory from land surface models: from imperfect proxies to predictive power., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3376, 2024.

16:40–16:50
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EGU24-9387
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On-site presentation
Joe McNorton and Francesca Di Giuseppe

Wildfires have widespread effects on local ecosystems, communities, air quality, and global atmospheric conditions. Accurate wildfire forecasts can be used by local communities and agencies to manage and respond to wildfires effectively. As such, it is essential these predictions are not only accurate but are accessible in real-time and provide sufficient advanced notice to ensure successful actions can be taken. Existing systems typically use fire danger indices to predict landscape flammability, based on meteorological forecasts alone, often using little or no direct information on land surface or vegetation state. Here, we use a vegetation characteristic model, weather forecasts and a data-driven machine learning approach to construct a global daily ~9 km resolution Probability of Fire (PoF) model operating at multiple lead times. The PoF model outperforms existing indices, providing accurate forecasts of fire activity up to 10 days in advance, and in some cases up to 30 days and has been deployed operationally at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The model can also be used to investigate historical shifts in regional fire patterns. Furthermore, the underlying data driven approach allows PoF to be used for fire attribution, isolating key variables for specific fire events or for looking at the relationships between variables and fire occurrence. The 2023 Canadian wildfire season is used as a test case to assess model performance at predicting extreme wildfire events.

How to cite: McNorton, J. and Di Giuseppe, F.: An Operational Global Probability-of-Fire (PoF) Forecast : Can we predict extreme events?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9387, 2024.

16:50–17:00
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EGU24-10020
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Carmen B. Steinmann, Jonathan Koh, Samuel Lüthi, Samuel Gübeli, Tanja N. Dallafior, Benoît P. Guillod, Chahan M. Kropf, Stijn Hantson, David N. Bresch, and Dahyann Araya

Wildfires cause extensive damage to physical assets exposed to them. So far, assessing the risk of these events remains an understudied area of global disaster risk assessment. Probabilistic risk estimates covering the range and likelihood of devastating events are crucial for various applications such as prioritising adaptation measures and determining insurance pricing. Quantifying tail risks such as a one-in-a-hundred-year impact has important implications for disaster risk management, including the pricing of insurance. However, short observational time series render modelling efforts indispensable for risk assessments on a global scale.
In parallel, increasing data availability allows for the use of machine learning techniques to predict wildfire behaviour. In this context, an open-source wildfire risk model based on globally available data would facilitate the accessibility of such analysis to stakeholders from both the public and private sector. Here, we present such a machine learning model that estimates wildfire probabilities and we integrate these within a global socio-economic risk framework. 

We determine burning probabilities based on MODIS burnt area, a set of predictors and a country-and-biome specific machine learning model. The chosen predictors include weather variables, land use covariates and population density. We enhance the model with spatial and temporal feature-engineered covariates, such as the count of neighbouring burnt cells and time since the last fire in each cell. The model employs XGBoost, a tree boosting system, tailored for each country and biome. The model generates stochastic, counterfactual historic wildfire seasons by leveraging the inherent randomness in its predictions, further influenced by temporal and spatial covariates.

Secondly, we compute socio-economic impacts as the combination of the newly developed wildfire hazard, an exposure representing physical assets; and a vulnerability that was calibrated on historic fire damage data. We compute wildfire risks by combining the resulting impacts with their respective probabilities. This renders a globally consistent modelling approach of wildfire risk to physical assets. Our model's stochastic representation of wildfire hazards enables the analysis of extreme events with return periods extending beyond available observational data, enhancing our understanding of potential high-impact scenarios.  

How to cite: Steinmann, C. B., Koh, J., Lüthi, S., Gübeli, S., Dallafior, T. N., Guillod, B. P., Kropf, C. M., Hantson, S., Bresch, D. N., and Araya, D.: A globally-consistent modelling approach to assess socio-economic wildfire risks, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10020, 2024.

17:00–17:10
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EGU24-12209
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On-site presentation
Adrien Guyot, Kathryn Turner, Jordan Brook, Joshua Soderholm, Nicholas McCarthy, Alain Protat, and Hamish McGowan

Extreme and megafires demonstrate a significant interplay between fire dynamics and the surrounding atmosphere, resulting in erratic fire behavior, rapid fire spread, long-range transport of burning embers, and pyro-convective activity that leads to the formation of pyrocumulus and/or pyrocumulonimbus clouds.

These fire-induced clouds play a crucial role, generating strong updrafts and downdrafts, causing plume collapse, and carrying particles like firebrands downwind while also lifting smoke particles into the stratosphere. Monitoring these clouds poses challenges; satellites offer limited resolution and passive sensing, while ground-based weather radars provide the best means to track their entire lifecycle, especially portable systems deployed at proximity of the fire and offering better resolution and accuracy. These systems are capable of identifying specific features and phenomena, such as rotors and vorticity, pyrometeors and the formation of condensation.

Our study presents observations from portable weather radars captured from various Australian wildfires. We introduce machine learning-based techniques to process radar data, aiming to provide actionable intelligence on wildfire-related hazards.

How to cite: Guyot, A., Turner, K., Brook, J., Soderholm, J., McCarthy, N., Protat, A., and McGowan, H.: Monitoring wildfire smoke plumes and clouds with portable weather radar to nowcast hazards associated with extreme wildfires, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12209, 2024.

Impacts and case studies
17:10–17:20
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EGU24-13319
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev, Stefaan Conradie, Carolina Gallo, Matthew Blackett, and Robert Parker

As major natural hazards, wildfires pose a significant risk to many parts of the world. The occurrence of extensive fires in both hemispheres in recent years has raised important questions about the extent to which the changing nature of such incidents can be attributed to human-induced climate change. Offering reliable answers to these questions is essential for communicating risk and increasing resilience to major wildfires. However, the scarcity of wildfire attribution studies, combined with limited observational records and the complexity of representing fires by different models, poses a challenge in establishing robust and unified conclusions to better inform future forest management strategies.

Here, a globally applicable framework is developed to better understand and quantify how wildfire risk is responding to a changing climate. The framework is based on an empirical-statistical methodology, facilitating its application to ’fire weather’ extremes from both observational records and the latest generation of global climate model ensembles (e.g. from CMIP/UKESM). Particular attention is given to the sensitivity of the eventual findings to the spatial scale of the event, the chosen event definition and the climate model(s) used in the analysis. As part of a global analysis, a series of maps are constructed detailing the change in likelihood of fire weather extremes, defined by both intensity and duration, throughout the world’s fire-prone regions as a result of rising global temperatures. Both observation- and model-based analyses reveal an increase in likelihood of at least twofold across many parts of the world, with considerable regional and inter-model variation. The value of the framework is demonstrated by combining results from a series of case studies of recent high-impact wildfires that differ by scale, duration and location. The conclusions drawn from this work provide a platform to guide future analysis of fire weather events and facilitate reliable recommendations for responding to the hazards associated with wildfires, and enhancing resilience in the face of climate change.

How to cite: Liu, Z., Eden, J., Dieppois, B., Drobyshev, I., Conradie, S., Gallo, C., Blackett, M., and Parker, R.: Probabilistic assessment of extreme fire risk under the impact of climate change, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13319, 2024.

17:20–17:30
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EGU24-20348
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Virtual presentation
Inika Taylor, Douglas Kelley, Camilla Mathison, Karina Williams, Andy Hartley, Richard Betts, and Chantelle Burton

Large destructive fires can cause extensive damage to ecosystems, and infrastructure, and loss of life. Understanding how these ‘wildfires’ are likely to change as the world warms is vital for effective fire management planning. This study provides information on likely future change and associated uncertainty in fire weather, relevant for fire management planning, including periods and extent of extreme fire weather and length of control burn season. 

We use the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) to investigate the effect of human-caused climate change on fire weather. We use a large, perturbed physics ensemble to explore the uncertainty at three Global Warming Levels (GWLs); 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 4.0°C above pre-industrial temperatures, for two emissions scenarios, RCP2.6 (a mitigation scenario), and RCP8.5, (a high-end scenario). We look globally, and focus on three regions: Australia, Brazil and the USA.  The frequency and severity of fire weather increases at all GWLs. The amount of land with more fire weather days increases with GWL, as does the uncertainty. Limiting warming to 1.5°C limits increases in future fire weather. However, even at 1.5°C, there is still a 31% (25% – 36%) increase in the land surface with more fire weather. 

Our analysis shows a substantial increase in fire weather and shortened control burn season even under the best-case scenario of meeting the 1.5°C Paris Agreement temperature target. However, exceeding the Paris Agreement target will see a much more substantial increase in both the fire season length and the amount of the land surface exposed to a greater risk of wildfires. These potential changes in fire weather have important implications for planning appropriate responses, such as the controlled burning season length, resourcing and training of fire managers and first responders, and the development of fire management plans. 

How to cite: Taylor, I., Kelley, D., Mathison, C., Williams, K., Hartley, A., Betts, R., and Burton, C.: Projected Increases in fire weather days even when the Paris Agreement targets are met: an exploration of fire risk uncertainty with a perturbed physics ensemble of climate models , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20348, 2024.

17:30–17:40
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EGU24-774
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Djacinto Monteiro dos Santos, Aline M. de Oliveira, Ediclê S. F. Duarte, Julia A. Rodrigues, Lucas S. Menezes, Ronaldo Albuquerque, Fabio de O. Roque, Leonardo F. Peres, Judith J. Hoelzemann, and Renata Libonati

Human-induced climate changes have increased the frequency of simultaneous hot–dry events. In 2020, the occurrence of compound droughts and heat waves (CDHW) conditions in the Pantanal (the largest continuous tropical wetland located in central-western Brazil) exacerbated fire risk, leading to unusual amounts of burned area (BA). Despite the well-documented local impacts on the ecosystem and economy, besides regional effects that included black sky episodes in South and Southeastern Brazil, the number of studies investigating the long-range impacts associated with Pantanal fires is still limited, compared to Amazon and Cerrado biomes. Here, we analyzed the long-range transport of smoke from the Pantanal during the 2020 mega fires to the São Paulo state (SPS) and the cascading impacts on air quality and human health statewide, integrating observational, satellite-based, and reanalysis data and atmospheric dispersion models. Three main episodes of transport of smoke-related to peaks of fire events in the Pantanal were identified through air mass trajectories simulated with HYSPLIT, leading to a substantial enhancement in PM2.5 levels over SPS, surpassing World Health Organization guidelines by over 70%-600% in different regions of the state. The EURAD-modeled PM2.5 concentrations during the fire episode aligned with those observed from air quality monitoring stations. Model results highlighted the key role of the South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ) in the redistribution of smoke plumes in South America, as previously observed in central Brazil and the Amazon basin. Two smoke-induced air pollution episodes coincided with heat waves observed in the SPS, contributing to worsening air quality and amplifying health risks. Thus, the period between October 1st and October 14th was marked by excess mortality of 2,150 (2,095 - 2,206) over 14 days, representing a 21% (17-24%) mortality increase. The impact on mortality was higher in the northwestern SPS, regions more affected by the transported smoke. Our findings reinforce the need to implement public policies associated with fire control and management in the Pantanal, considering the country's large-scale interactions among different regions and biomes, besides adaptation strategies to concurrent and cascading extreme events expected to increase under any future global warming scenarios.

How to cite: Monteiro dos Santos, D., M. de Oliveira, A., S. F. Duarte, E., A. Rodrigues, J., S. Menezes, L., Albuquerque, R., de O. Roque, F., F. Peres, L., J. Hoelzemann, J., and Libonati, R.: Health impacts of long-range transported air pollution in South America: compound events, cascading hazards and the Pantanal 2020 fire crisis., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-774, 2024.

Fire management
17:40–17:50
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EGU24-13497
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On-site presentation
Renata Moura da Veiga, Celso von Randow, Manoel Cardoso, Eddy Robertson, Eleanor Burke, Maria Lucia Barbosa, Chantelle Burton, Douglas Kelley, and Fabiano Morelli

The risk of fire occurrence and the frequency of extreme fire events have been increasing globally due to climate change. As a result, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are higher worldwide, including in the Brazilian Cerrado. Cerrado is a fire-prone Biome in central Brazil, where fire is essential for maintaining the Biome diversity and integrity. Cerrado presents distinct rainy and dry seasons. In the dry season, the accumulated biomass available for burning becomes highly flammable and fire can rapidly spread from grasslands and savannas to forests. In fire-prone ecosystems globally, prescribed burning prevents intense and frequent wildfires in the drier months by intentionally applying fire under controlled conditions at the end of the rainy season and/or the beginning of the dry season. In Cerrado, prescribed burning is applied in the early dry season (EDS; April-June) to avoid severe wildfires in the late dry season (LDS; August-October), but so far there have been no documented estimates of the effect of prescribed burning on carbon emissions. In this study, we evaluate the potential of prescribed burning to mitigate emissions from extreme fire events in the Brazilian Cerrado region. We modelled fire emissions in Cerrado with JULES-INFERNO over a 30-year period (1990-2019), using the ISIMIP3a simulations. We adjust JULES-INFERNO to represent Cerrado, and then simulate prescribed burning by setting an additional ignition to C4 grass during EDS. We analyse years with large burned areas, including El Niño years, to represent years with intense fire events. Over the 30 years, prescribed burning resulted in reduced fire emissions in the LDS, especially in years when there was high burned area. This indicates that prescribed burning can be used in the Cerrado to reduce the impacts of uncontrolled fires in the drier months. We also observe that the effectiveness of prescribed burning in reducing emissions depends on the C4 grass recovery rate. Further investigation is needed to better understand the model’s performance, including analysis of modelled parameters such as the C4 grass post-fire recovery.

How to cite: Moura da Veiga, R., von Randow, C., Cardoso, M., Robertson, E., Burke, E., Barbosa, M. L., Burton, C., Kelley, D., and Morelli, F.: Prescribed burning as a mechanism to mitigate emissions of extreme fire events: a case study from the Brazilian Cerrado, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13497, 2024.

17:50–18:00
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EGU24-8126
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Doug Richardson, Yann Quilcaille, Fulden Batibeniz, Andrew Pitman, and Jakob Zscheischler

Wildfires are a growing global challenge. In addition to becoming more widespread and intense due to climate change, the fire seasons in many regions are becoming longer. The lengthening of fire seasons reduces the window of opportunity for preparedness (e.g. prescribed burning of dry fuels before fire season onset) and increases the likelihood of spatially compounding fire risks due to overlapping fire weather seasons. These increased risks demand efficient global cooperation in sharing firefighting resources (e.g. helicopters, planes, firefighters), and of major concern, is how well-established international arrangements may be compromised or disrupted in the near future.

Here we investigate increasing fire season lengths across two distanced fire-prone regions with typically distinct fire seasons and a long-term collaboration in sharing firefighting resources, Eastern Australia (EAU) and Western North America (WNA). We aim to test the hypothesis that spatially compounding fire weather events occur due to overlapping fire weather seasons, based on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). To robustly characterize the potential overlap, we make use of CMIP6 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) for historical and future periods, and the ERA5 reanalysis. We define Fire Weather Days (FWD) as when the FWI exceeds a climatological threshold specific to each region, and we then estimate the total number of overlapping FWD per year for different time periods.

We show that these distanced regions are becoming more likely to experience periods of overlapping FWD, which can compromise the human response in terms of firefighting. Most of the overlap occurs during boreal Autumn months, coinciding with the end of the fire season in WNA and the beginning of the fire season in EAU. Correlations between the number of overlapping FWD and the length of the regional fire season suggest that the main driver of the overlapping is the increasing early start of the fire season in EAU, rather than the late offset of the fire season in WNA. Additionally, we find that overlapping FWD is expected to increase in the future in a warming climate. As fire seasons overlap, the existing international collaborations will be increasingly constrained, and the window of opportunity for firefighting will shorten. 

How to cite: Ribeiro, A. F. S., Richardson, D., Quilcaille, Y., Batibeniz, F., Pitman, A., and Zscheischler, J.: Overlapping US-Australia fire seasons reduce the window of opportunity for firefighting cooperation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8126, 2024.

Posters on site: Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X1

Display time: Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–Fri, 19 Apr, 12:30
Chairpersons: D. I. Kelley, Stijn Hantson
X1.12
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EGU24-1092
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ECS
Thaís Pereira de Medeiros, Débora Joana Dutra, Poliana Domingos Ferro, Henrique Alves Leão, Deila da Silva Magalhães, Celso H. L. Silva-Junior, Swanni Tatiana Alvarado Romero, Maria Isabel Sobral Escada, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão, and Liana Oighenstein Anderson

Fire, a dual-edged phenomenon, holds the potential for both harm and benefit to individuals and ecosystems contingent on its location, timing, and manner of occurrence. The expansion of human civilization has positioned it as the main source of fire ignitions on the Earth, fundamentally altering natural fire regimes. Ecosystems exhibit different responses and susceptibilities to fire, with impacts varying based on specific ecosystem characteristics. Across the  Brazilian landscapes, distinct biomes such as Cerrado, Pampa, and Pantanal are classified as fire-dependent. In contrast, forest-dominated biomes like the Atlantic Forest and Amazon are deemed fire-sensitive, while the Caatinga, despite limited research on its historical fire relationship, is tentatively categorized as fire-independent.

Brazil has witnessed unprecedented wildfires in recent decades, with natural fire regimes undergoing modification due to human activities, frequently tied to land-use and its changes practices or exacerbated by climate extremes associated with global warming. In this context, our goal was to characterize the temporal patterns of fires in Brazilian biomes, using a burned area dataset obtained from the Global Fire Atlas (2003-2018). This dataset tracks the daily dynamics of individual fires, and our analysis focused on the burned area extent.

In Brazil, over the time series (2003-2018), the peak years regarding the extent of burned areas were 2010, 2007 and 2012, totalling 392,057 km², 382,163 km², and 249,596 km², respectively. 2010 and 2007 presented an increase of ~240% above the mean, while 2012 an increase of ~150% above the mean.

Regarding the intra-annual fire patterns, observations revealed that Fire-sensitive biomes, in the Amazon and Atlantic Forest, the fire season was well-defined in two months, specifically August and September, representing, on average, 55% (4,058 km²) and 40% (1,027 km²) of the total burned area, respectively. In the Fire-independent biome, Caatinga, the fire season was prominent in September and October, constituting 67% (436 km²) of the total burned area. In relation to Fire-dependent biomes, Cerrado and Pantanal exhibited a concentrated fire season in August and September, accounting for 57% (10,283 km²) in Cerrado and 68% (900 km²) in Pantanal. Finally, Pampa's fire season displayed a heterogeneous configuration over time, making it impossible to extract a specific pattern of fire season.

In general, August and September of 2010 were the months that presented the greatest extent of burned area in the time series, in almost all biomes, except Pantanal and Pampa. The occurrence of fires, often caused by human actions, also can be associated with mega-droughts and ocean circulations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. The widespread occurrence of fires in 2010 can be attributed to the severe and unique drought that occurred as a consequence of the ENSO, affecting mainly Cerrado and Amazon.

In summary, the intensification of extreme events and the increase of fire source ignitions, even in fire-dependent environments, is affecting the Brazilian ecosystems, which presents distincts behavior and resilience in relation to fire events. Therefore, understanding the period of fire season is essential to develop command-and-control approaches and to fire prevention.

How to cite: Pereira de Medeiros, T., Joana Dutra, D., Domingos Ferro, P., Alves Leão, H., da Silva Magalhães, D., H. L. Silva-Junior, C., Tatiana Alvarado Romero, S., Sobral Escada, M. I., Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão, L. E., and Oighenstein Anderson, L.: Temporal patterns of burned area in the Brazilian biomes, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1092, 2024.

X1.13
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EGU24-1158
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ECS
Henrique Leão, Debora Dutra, Thaís Medeiros, Celso Silva-Junior, Swanni Alvarado, Vinicius Peripato, Marcus Silveira, Ana Larissa De Freitas, Luiz Aragão, and Liana Anderson

The Amazon biome is under constant pressure from deforestation and fire occurrence, one of the most active forest degradation processes. The advance of deforestation leads to the increase of forest edge effects. Thus, agricultural management based on slash-and-burn practices can lead to fire escaping into native vegetation, leading to forest degradation, impacting biodiversity, forest structure, carbon stocks and emissions. 

Maranhão state, located in northeastern Brazil and part of the Legal Amazon, encompasses a  transition from the Amazon rainforest to Cerrado. Attention to this region is urgent due to growing pressures related to fire and deforestation mainly within Protected Areas (PA), threatening the conservation and functioning of this unique ecosystem. An up-to-date spatial explicit diagnostic of disturbances such as fire, deforestation and edge effects is important for formulating protective measures for these areas.

Methodologies for quantifying Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and removals, analyzing trends, attributing sources and sinks are key to support the establishment and reporting of national GHG inventories. Brazil has legal tools, like the National Climate Change Policy, aligned with Paris Agreement goals, emphasizing the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+). Quantifying carbon losses from degradation is challenging due to uncertainties in estimating degraded forest areas and disturbance impacts. About 61% of carbon removals occur in protected native vegetation, yet estimates may be overestimated due to unaccounted forest degradation processes, like burn emissions from non-deforested native vegetation, untracked in National Inventories. These uncertainties, however, can be reduced by combining field measurements with an ever-increasing range of datasets and remote sensing methods. This study aims to enhance understanding of post-fire biomass growth dynamics and recovery potential, emphasizing the pivotal role of carbon removal by vegetation.

Our analysis covers the heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation growth in fire-degraded forests, where we combined a satellite dataset tracking fire disturbances with the fusion of 3 products widely used in other studies (MCD64A1, Fire_CCI and Mapbiomas Collection 2, fusion product with 30 m resolution), with a global above-ground biomass (AGB) product (Biomass_CCI, 100 m resolution) in a space-for-time substitution approach to model accumulated AGB as a function of the Years Since the Last Fire Disturbance (YSLF). 

Over 20 years of recovery (2001 - 2020), regeneration rates in areas degraded by forest fires ranged from 2 to 12% per year, totalling up to 80% biomass recovery, compared to old forests that were never burned. Degraded forests are most severely disturbed after the first YSLF, where AGB is reduced to 58% of the median AGB of old-growth forests (113.86 Mg/ha), resulting in a 42% loss of biomass. In 2016, fires breached Maranhão's protected areas for the first time in two decades. Even after a single fire event, the areas did not fully recover in terms of biomass, indicating a potential reduction in carbon storage capacity.

Extreme fire events amplify these occurrences, affecting protected areas and decreasing the carbon storage potential of forests. Urgent measures are needed to protect and restore these areas, recognizing the lasting impacts of forest fires on biodiversity, forest structure and carbon emissions.

How to cite: Leão, H., Dutra, D., Medeiros, T., Silva-Junior, C., Alvarado, S., Peripato, V., Silveira, M., De Freitas, A. L., Aragão, L., and Anderson, L.: Estimation of aboveground biomass recovery through chronosequence in forests degraded by fire in the Legal Amazon, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1158, 2024.

X1.14
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EGU24-5700
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ECS
Débora Dutra, Marcelo Santos Junior, Igor Ferreira, Beatriz Cabral, Philip Fearnside, Paulo Graça, Aurora Yanai, Ricardo Dalagnol, Daniel Braga, Chris Jones, Chantelle Burton, Richard Betts, Henrique Leão, Thaís Medeiros, Guilherme Mataveli, Luiz Aragão, and Liana Anderson

The Amazon Rainforest, crucial for climate regulation, carbon and water cycles, and biodiversity preservation, faces escalating threats from heightened forest degradation, including disturbances from fire and logging. In 2020, Brazil was responsible for a concerning 70% of the active fire hotspots detected in the Amazon, signaling a notable 60% increase compared to 2019. This surge has pushed the region into an extreme fire situation. Urgent and effective interventions are imperative to mitigate these extremes, ensuring the preservation of the Amazon and global climate stability. The study focuses on the Boca do Acre region in the southwest Amazon, one of the most recent hotspots of deforestation and forest degradation in the Amazon. We project the suitability of fire for 2030, following the timeframe set by the United Nations for the implementation of actions aimed at creating a better world for all peoples and nations through the Agenda 2030. Using the MAXENT algorithm within the R software, we conducted a detailed analysis exclusively within the non-forest land-use class on a 5 km x 5 km grid. Burned area data from products Fire CCI (250m), MapBiomas Fire (30m), and MODIS MCD64 (500m) were used to study fire occurrence across the study area. The chosen baseline year is 2014, representing the last year of historical data before the influence of different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) on IPCC models (1-2.6 and 3-7.0). The statistic involves the use of specifically selected variables, determined by their performance in correlation tests and principal component analysis. These variables encompass the percentage of forested areas, agriculture, pasture, and a 1000 m buffer along the region's roads. Additionally, factors such as the percentage of conservation unit occupancy, indigenous lands, and medium-sized properties (400-1000 ha) in the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR), along with precipitation values during dry months, are taken into account. Model validation incorporates AUC analysis, where the model must exhibit performance greater than 0.7, background analysis with the same curve behavior, false positive rate (FPR), accuracy evaluation, and sensitivity analysis. Following this process, we project the feasibility of fire for 2030. Results consistently demonstrate high performance, with AUC values surpassing 0.7 and pixel-to-pixel accuracy ranging from 60% to 90%, lower FRP values, and higher sensitivity values. Projected results indicate an increased susceptibility to fires that spread in the region, especially under less sustainable scenarios, emphasizing the urgency of preventive measures before 2030. Projections reveal an advancement in fire suitability, particularly in the SSP 3-7.0 scenario, with a significant increase in non-forest areas. However, as the scenario worsens, areas prone to fires that spread decrease due to the advancement of agricultural and pasture areas, underscoring the need for more sustainable practices. In conclusion, this study holds promise as a management tool for decision-makers, offering valuable insights for the development of mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change in the Boca do Acre region. These contributions are essential for preserving this vital ecosystem, highlighting the importance of implementing effective strategies.

How to cite: Dutra, D., Santos Junior, M., Ferreira, I., Cabral, B., Fearnside, P., Graça, P., Yanai, A., Dalagnol, R., Braga, D., Jones, C., Burton, C., Betts, R., Leão, H., Medeiros, T., Mataveli, G., Aragão, L., and Anderson, L.: Optimizing Fire Preparedness: A Forward-looking Analysis for 2030 in Boca do Acre Region, Brazilian Amazon, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5700, 2024.

X1.15
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EGU24-6369
Liana Anderson, Débora Dutra, Chris Jones, Guilherme Mataveli, Igor Ferreira, Henrique Leão, Beatriz Cabral, Philip Fearnside, Paulo Graça, Aurora Yanai, Celso Silva Junior, Thaís Medeiros, Ricardo Dalagnol, Daniel Braga, Vinícius Peripato, Chantelle Burton, Richard Betts, and Luiz Aragão

Anthropogenic disturbances stand as the primary driver of degradation in the remaining Amazon forests, posing a significant threat to their future. Notable among these disturbances are edge effects, timber extraction, fire, extreme droughts and temperatures, which have been intensified by human-induced climate change. A pilot study aiming to integrate forest fire occurrence, timber extraction and climate change scenarios was developed for a new deforestation frontier in southwestern Amazonia. We integrated a series of remote sensing fire products, spatialized land tenure information, selective logging mapping techniques and Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulated projections of three SSPs (SSP climate forcing scenarios) for 2015–2100 period. The results showed that the increased deforestation trend occurred between 2003 and 2019 predominantly on public lands, following the implementation of the new forest code.  This surge contributed to a spike in fires, escalating from 66% to 84% in 2019. Over the period from 2007 and 2019, 2.4% of the primary forest was logged. By 2022, precipitation values aligned closely with SSP 5-8.5, and temperature values neared SSP 3-7.0. Projections for 2100 indicated an alarming increase of 5.19 ºC in overall temperature and a reduction of 55 mm in annual precipitation compared to 2003 baseline. The results indicate that the study region is already heading towards a less sustainable future. Logging activities, as well as agricultural production, are threatened by both increase in economic losses by fires and temperatures, and rainfall reduction. Implementing mitigation measures, such as fire-free land management, traceability controls for all wood production from logged forests, and addressing issues of land tenure and regulation are pivotal in steering the current development pathway towards a more sustainable pathway.

How to cite: Anderson, L., Dutra, D., Jones, C., Mataveli, G., Ferreira, I., Leão, H., Cabral, B., Fearnside, P., Graça, P., Yanai, A., Silva Junior, C., Medeiros, T., Dalagnol, R., Braga, D., Peripato, V., Burton, C., Betts, R., and Aragão, L.: Prediction of forest degradation as a subsidy for mitigating actions to preventing fires and wildfires in a new Amazonian frontier, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6369, 2024.

X1.16
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EGU24-8559
Alejandra Stehr, Nicole Vyhmeister, Vicente Saenger, Pablo Villegas, and Efrain Duarte

Wildfires are a global and catastrophic phenomenon, generating major impacts on soil characteristics, erosion, water flow and water quality at the watershed scale, among others. Such effects depend on the severity of the fire, a metric that depends on the intensity of the fire and the nature of the vegetation that is burning. During the last 60 years the average annual area burned in Chile due to wildfires has been approximately 65,000 hectares per year. This figure has been greatly surpassed in the last 5 years, averaging approximately 155,000 hectares per year. Although worldwide, especially in the United States and Europe, there is evidence of impacts on the quantity and quality of water from wildfires, this is not the case in Chile. Given the above, the objective of this work is to analyze the effects on water quantity and quality in burned and unburned watersheds in the Andes and Coastal Cordillera in southern Chile. Two native forest basins and two exotic plantation basins were studied, one burned and one unburned in each class. The native forest basins correspond to the Allipén River and Quepe River basins, located in the Andes Mountain range, while the exotic plantation basins are found in the Carampangue River basin, located in the Coastal Mountain range. The results indicate differences in nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen) present in the water between burned and unburned watersheds during the rainy season.

How to cite: Stehr, A., Vyhmeister, N., Saenger, V., Villegas, P., and Duarte, E.: Effects of wildfires on water quantity and quality in southern Chile, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8559, 2024.

X1.17
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EGU24-12863
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ECS
Noah Liguori-Bills, Morgane Perron, Stephen Plummer, Christoph Voelker, Boris Vannière, Joanne Hall, Matthias Forkel, Kebonye Dintwe, Cristina Santin, Miriam Morrill, Jessie Thoreson, Benjamin Poulter, Matthew Jones, Douglas Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Stijn Hantson, and Douglas Hamilton

In September 2023, the Fire Learning AcRoss the Earth Systems (FLARE) workshop brought together fire scientists across a wide range of disciplines, including physical and social scientists and representatives of fire-prone communities, with the aim to facilitate a transdisciplinary discussion.

 

The FLARE community identified characterizing “fire and extreme events” as a research priority. In recent years, there has been a rise in extreme weather events worldwide. Both in science and in the media, the word “extreme” is increasingly used to describe the impact of natural phenomena on ecosystems, human health, the carbon cycle, and economies. However, the severity associated with recent changes in fire activity is not well defined. Assessing the cause(s) and consequences of a fire event on a global scale is complex, this leads to different definitions and assessment techniques/methods being used in the range of disciplines that study fire, including ecology, biology, hydrology, atmospheric science, marine science, Earth science, or public health. Additionally, it is hard to disentangle human land management and climate change induced changes in fire regimes.

 

Using examples from the 2023 Boreal fires, this presentation discusses future directions for defining extreme fires. Fires are also part of the broader interconnected Earth System and influenced by droughts, heat waves, and altered landscapes. In turn, post-fire effects such as erosion, landslides, and floods create cascade events that impact both human societies and natural ecosystems. We discuss this broader view of including fire extremes as part of compound extreme events in order to fully assess their impact. We finish by providing recommendations for the fire science community to tackle this challenge. Some of which may include more proactive modeling, observation and communication tools aimed at providing relevant and timely information.

 

https://futureearth.org/2023/12/13/reflections-from-the-fire-science-learning-across-the-earth-system-flare-workshop/

How to cite: Liguori-Bills, N., Perron, M., Plummer, S., Voelker, C., Vannière, B., Hall, J., Forkel, M., Dintwe, K., Santin, C., Morrill, M., Thoreson, J., Poulter, B., Jones, M., Kelley, D., Burton, C., Hantson, S., and Hamilton, D.: The FLARE Workshop's Future Directions for Defining Extreme Fire, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12863, 2024.

X1.18
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EGU24-13017
Stijn Hantson, Laura Obando Cabrera, and Matthew Forrest

In recent years, the world has witnessed a surge in "extreme" fire events, with notable occurrences in regions like California and Australia, where their disproportionate impacts have been evident. However, the term "extreme fire" lacks a standardized definition, leading to a diverse and ambiguous usage. To address this, we utilize the MODIS burnt area record spanning 2002-2022 to systematically identify extreme fire years across diverse ecoregions worldwide. Our analysis detects most of the reported events in developed regions, but also additional extreme fire occurrences in less developed areas.

While global fire models are commonly employed to estimate the overall impact of fires on a global scale, their ability to accurately represent extreme events remains uncertain. To assess this, we compare extreme events identified in the MODIS time series with simulations from six global fire models participating in FireMIP. The results reveal variations in model performance, with some models accurately simulating extreme events in burnt area while others exhibit limitations.

Our findings highlight biases in reporting on extreme events and underscore the importance of a quantitative identification framework. Additionally, our analysis suggests that certain global fire models hold promise for studying extreme fire events. This research contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of global fire dynamics and impacts.

How to cite: Hantson, S., Obando Cabrera, L., and Forrest, M.: Global Extremes in Burnt Area, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13017, 2024.

X1.19
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EGU24-15606
Douglas I Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Stacey New, Inika Taylor, Camilla Mathison, João Teixeira, Seppe Lampe, Anna Bradley, Eddy Robertson, Robert Parker, Stijn Hantson, Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa, Gerd Folberth, Eleanor Burke, Chris D. Jones, Jacquelyn Shuman, Adrianna Foster, and Matthew Forrest

We, the fire science community (and friends), are increasingly asked to provide information about drivers and the impact of fire and make fire projections under future climate and land use change. While the current generation of fire models has skill at modelling certain aspects of global fire regimes, many uncertainties remain. Most models struggle to represent extreme fires and often disagree over future changes in burning. We are collating information on good practices of fire model applications that consider or robustly reduce these uncertainties. These include single or multi-global fire model output, and new and novel modelling and statistical techniques, either in isolated studies or larger projects that contain multiple studies.

The aim is to provide a guide to using fire models for science and policy and a roadmap for development pathways. Thereby moving the community forward to help answer some of the urgent fire-related questions in our changing world. We aim to highlight the fantastic work of many in the community at designing and implementing robust scientific integrity in their analysis. Excellent work already identified often involves tailored modelling and evaluation techniques for specific questions, developing ways to quantify uncertainty, and statistical methods to extract relevant information from models based on historical performance. But there is certainly more we don’t know about!

Can you tell us how and when fire model evaluation has helped inform or adapt a research question? How do you account for fire model uncertainties? We especially want to hear from you if you're unsure or don't think your research is entirely relevant. Maybe we've missed that vital aspect of fire science!? 

To contribute, fill out the questionnaire, jam board, or request an interview at https://forms.gle/NJPEShq6V1ky3Dbv5. Or come talk to us at EGU and fill out our interactive poster!

 

 

How to cite: Kelley, D. I., Burton, C., New, S., Taylor, I., Mathison, C., Teixeira, J., Lampe, S., Bradley, A., Robertson, E., Parker, R., Hantson, S., Barbosa, M. L. F., Folberth, G., Burke, E., Jones, C. D., Shuman, J., Foster, A., and Forrest, M.: Community input for a how-to guide for using fire models., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15606, 2024.

X1.20
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EGU24-16612
Grazia Pellizzaro, Valentina Bacciu, Carla Scarpa, Bachisio Arca, Michele Salis, Marcello Casula, and Annalisa Canu

Fires have been a natural component of Mediterranean ecosystems for centuries, contributing to their ecological balance. However, they also release significant amounts of smoke and various pollutants like carbon monoxide, methane, nitrous oxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter (PM). The emissions not only compromise air quality but also pose a threat to human health, particularly for those with chronic heart and lung diseases. These impacts have been largely studied in the United States and in neighboring countries, while in the Euro-Mediterranean continent the studies available on the patterns of wildfires and fire emissions are more limited. However, the increase in the frequency of large fires recorded in recent years, especially in southern Europe and often close to inhabited centers, urges the scientific community to investigate on the impact of these events on air quality and human health at European level as well.

This study examines six large fires (>2000 ha) in Sardinia, Italy, over the past fifteen years, with the main aims to (i) characterize the six forest fires in term of size, fuel, and weather conditions; (ii) estimate the contribution of the six forest fires to environmental PM levels.

Meteorological conditions at synoptic scale have been investigated through NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data with a spatial resolution of 0.5° x 0.5° and maps of 850 hPa temperature and airmasses from WetterZentrale (https://www.wetterzentrale.de/). The impacts on particulate matter on air quality has been evaluated through data obtained from the monitoring stations of the Air quality control network of the Regional Environment Protection Agency of Sardinia (ARPAS).  To further investigate the impacts of the fire plumes, the study employs the HYSPLIT (hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory) model developed by NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory to compute the forward trajectories of air masses. Finally, for selected recent fires, the plume spatial distribution has been investigated and verified using Modis satellite images on board the Aqua satellite as well as the visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Corrected Reflectance imagery on board the joint NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) satellite.

Preliminary findings reveal varying degrees of correlation between air quality and fire events in the six examined cases. This variability could be attributed to different fuel types, atmospheric conditions, and, to a significant extent, the location and density of air monitoring stations.

How to cite: Pellizzaro, G., Bacciu, V., Scarpa, C., Arca, B., Salis, M., Casula, M., and Canu, A.: Understanding the impact of large fires in air quality in a Mediterranean area, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16612, 2024.

X1.21
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EGU24-17187
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ECS
Michail-Christos Tsoutsos, Nikolaos Stasinos, Melpomeni Zoka, Martha Kokkalidou, Stella Girtsou, Nikolaos Stathopoulos, and Charalampos Kontoes

During the last decades, Greece has experienced a range of natural hazards, with three significant events occurring in the wider Attica region. Notably, these include the Athens earthquake that took place on September 7, 1999, the flash flood of Mandra that unfolded on November 15, 2017, and the wildfires that happened on July 23, 2018, in Mati. Among these, wildfires stand out as particularly detrimental disasters provoking numerous fatalities, which have an intense presence within the Attica region according to the FireHub Web Service provided by the Operational Unit “BEYOND” Centre of the National Observatory of Athens. This stems from a persistent urban sprawl over the years throughout the region that leads to an unwavering invasion of urban and suburban infrastructures into wildland areas containing typical Mediterranean vegetation, and as a result, heightens the vulnerability of human lives and properties to a fire-prone environment. Furthermore, most of the suburban areas in the broader Attica region are characterized by uncontrollable urban planning, numerous dead ends, inaccessible seafronts, insufficient installation of firefighting equipment, accumulation of fuels in both private properties and public spaces, and in most cases poor road network quality. This precarious combination of factors exacerbates the risk and impact of wildfires, posing serious challenges to the safety and well-being of the community and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive and strategic protection measures. Considering the necessity to efficiently prevent any loss in human and built environments due to the aforementioned destructive hazards and the region’s characteristics, the Region of Attica funded a research project where fire, seismic, and flood risk was estimated. Within the context of fire risk assessment, evacuation plans were created given the fact to inhibit any fatalities in the likelihood of a forest fire event. The evacuation plans are based on extensive field investigations which brought about insights related to human and physical geographical elements (e.g. topography, land use/land cover, road network density) of each area of interest. The research identified the total number of dead ends, the vehicle escape routes, points of traffic congestion, and polygons representing the order of areas to be evacuated, taking into account the incoming direction of a possible fire front. Moreover, the main routes of evacuation for pedestrians were traced in conjunction with the points of public gathering. Lastly, a variety of recommendations are provided in light of the hotspots that need immediate intervention in order to counter a severe fire event. The primary objective of this research is to present and evaluate the proposed evacuation risk management plans in selected municipalities, as well as, to highlight the most vulnerable areas in terms of capacity through maps.

Acknowledgments

This research work was developed under the national research project “Seismic, Fire and Flood Risk Assessment in Attica Region, Greece”, funded by the Region of Attica, led and coordinated by the Operational Unit “BEYOND Centre of Earth Observation Research and Satellite Remote Sensing” of the Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing, of the National Observatory of Athens, Greece.

How to cite: Tsoutsos, M.-C., Stasinos, N., Zoka, M., Kokkalidou, M., Girtsou, S., Stathopoulos, N., and Kontoes, C.: Comparative assessment of evacuation capacity of selected fire prone areas in Attica region, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17187, 2024.

X1.22
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EGU24-19850
Fredrik Wetterhall, Siham El Garroussi, and Francesca Di Giuseppe

Extreme wildfires have a disastrous impact on society and the natural environment. Wildfires are prone in areas with fuel built up and desiccated over time. A warmer and drier climate will lead to an increase in the risk of extreme fires. 
    This study quantifies how the risk of extreme fires is conditioned on potential temperature and precipitation changes. Our results indicate that large areas of southern Europe could experience a tenfold increase in the probability of catastrophic fires occurring any given year under a moderate CMIP6 scenario. If global temperatures reach the +2 C threshold, central and northern Europe will also become more susceptible to wildfires during droughts. The increasing probability of fire extremes in a warming climate, in combination with an average one-week extension of the fire season across most countries, is expected to strain Europe's ability to cope in the forthcoming decades.

How to cite: Wetterhall, F., El Garroussi, S., and Di Giuseppe, F.: A Tenfold Increase in Extreme Fires  expected in Europe under a warming climate  , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19850, 2024.

Posters virtual: Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vHall X1

Display time: Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–Fri, 19 Apr, 18:00
Chairpersons: Liana O. Anderson, Stijn Hantson
vX1.7
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EGU24-12036
Shirley Vásquez, Bruna Carrión, Raisa Torres, and Yaniel Vázquez
Wildfires are phenomena that affect large areas of land worldwide, causing substantial economic and human losses every year. Ecuador is a country with important geology and archaeological heritage, recognized by several authors historically and awarded by UNESCO in 2019. On the other hand, agriculture widely distributed all along the country constitutes one of the major economic activities that supports the gross domestic product. Both resources are susceptible to the manifestation of forest fires, becoming a major problem in the country.  

In 2023, the months of August and September showed the highest recurrence of fires at national level. One of the most damaged regions was Imbabura UNESCO Global Geopark that covers the total surface of Imbabura province (4712,37 Km2) here the fires burned about 1600 hectares of land. Fires in Ecuador are usually caused by a combination of factors including inadequate human practices, highly flammable dry vegetation, and meteorological conditions. Thus, this research focuses on the estimation of the severity of damage during forest fires, also considering the forest-urban interface it was possible to estimate the impact to settlements in the geopark. The processing of satellite data was performed by applying the algorithm in Google Earth Engine (GEE), from the ImageCollection package that contains information on burned surface to Sentinel-2 satellite images based on key indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Burned Area Ratio (NBR) and shortwave infrared (SWIR) (UN-SPIDER).   

The geopark embraces 12 geosites, including the “Yachay Archaeological Sites” located on the grounds of the City of Knowledge Yachay, in Urcuquí, being one of the most important cultural heritage, which importance stems from its inclusion of bone remains, malacological, ceramic, lithic, and monumental structures. It holds particular significance for the descendants of the Caranqui population that inhabits the entire area of influence; therefore, preserving it for future generations is crucial. The monuments (Tolas, Pucarás, and Pirámides), distributed aleatory in the geosite, were highly affected. Sentinel 2 has a resolution of 30 m, and some monuments are less than 5m, for this reason it was necessary to use high-resolution images captured with unmanned aerial equipment to evaluate the impact. The final analysis reveals that, for the geosite "Yachay Archaeological Sites," 127 hectares were affected, with a considerable harm in several levels that 29 out of the 37 monumental structures, this represents the 78% of the total structures were potentially damaged.  

Key words: Severity, Forest Fires, GEE, Geosites, Imbabura Geopark, Archaeological Sites Yachay, Tolas  

Reference:  

UN-SPIDER Knowledge Portal. Paso a paso: Mapeo de la severidad de incendios forestales en Google Earth Engine https://www.un-spider.org/es/asesoria/practicas-recomendadas/practica- recomendada-mapeo-gravedad-quemaduras/paso-a-paso/google-earth-engine

How to cite: Vásquez, S., Carrión, B., Torres, R., and Vázquez, Y.: Forest fire severity estimation in 2023 in UNESCO Global Geopark Imbabura with the impact review at the archaeological heritage in the geosite “Yachay Archaeological Sites”   , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12036, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12036, 2024.

vX1.8
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EGU24-12769
Hazem Mahmoud, Ingrid Garcia-Solera, Daniel Kaufman, Alexander Radkevich, and Walter Baskin

The escalating threat of wildfires in North America raises significant concerns regarding their adverse effects on air quality and public health, as recent wildfires have resulted in widespread smoke plumes that transcend international borders. This study focuses on the exposure of the North Atlantic region to smoke from Canadian wildfires, underscoring the profound implications for public health and environmental well-being. To assess the air quality impact, we analyze satellite data obtained from the NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) at Langley Research Center, in conjunction with ground-based measurements and atmospheric modeling outputs. Specifically, we investigate  concentrations of atmospheric aerosols, notably PM2.5 particulate matter originating from Canadian wildfires, dispersion patterns, and the duration and intensity of smoke events affecting the North Atlantic. Utilizing data from multiple instruments — including those from the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP Lidar), and Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) — strengthens the conclusions drawn from the impact assessment and estimation of aerosol loading. Ground-based measurements, including data from air quality monitoring stations, provide localized information for validation and calibration purposes.

The study's findings enhance understanding of the repercussions of Canadian wildfires on air quality in the North Atlantic region, underscoring the necessity of monitoring and prediction of transboundary smoke events through the integration of data from diverse sources, such as those provided by the ASDC. This information is pivotal for policymakers, public health officials, and residents in affected areas to formulate effective strategies in mitigating health risks associated with wildfire smoke and improving air quality during wildfire seasons. The study emphasizes the critical role of atmospheric remote sensing, particularly the use of ASDC data, in addressing the challenges posed by wildfires and their consequences on regional scales.

How to cite: Mahmoud, H., Garcia-Solera, I., Kaufman, D., Radkevich, A., and Baskin, W.: Impact of Canadian Wildfires 2023 on North Atlantic’s Region Air Quality: An Analysis Using ASDC Data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12769, 2024.

vX1.9
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EGU24-20820
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ECS
Monique Maia and Liana Oighenstein Anderson

In Latin America, social media platforms are the main source of information updates for the population with internet access. On social networks, information from quick videos, photographs and digital narratives are sources of learning exchanges, updates and lessons.  Thus in this, using the social networks to scientific dissemination with the aim of increase awareness and engagement about the occurrence of forest fires, risks of disasters and the impact of forest fires in Latin America. The digital social platforms used here were Youtube, Facebook and Instagram in Portuguese, English and Spanish. Metrics such as reach, reactions, comments, number of likes, impressions per post, number of followers and automatic evaluations of participation and engagement were collected as a positive strategy for monitoring and social participation of populations with digital access and interest in the topics.

How to cite: Maia, M. and Anderson, L. O.: Scientific communication on social media as a tool for Increase awareness on fire occurrence , risk reduction and environmental disasters associated with forest fires., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20820, 2024.