Validation of Mediterranean cyclones in GCM simulations against reanalysis

Mid-latitude cyclones have a great influence on the weather and the climate of the Mediterranean region. This study focuses on the western Mediterranean region, where we aim to identify changes in the number of cyclones and their characteristics based on ERA5 reanalysis data and historical simulations of global climate models from the CMIP6 project covering the period before 2014. For this purpose, mean sea level pressure is analysed to identify low-pressure systems, and these potential cyclone centres are then connected through timesteps to produce trajectories. Model data is regridded to 1° spatial resolution, with temporal resolution of 6-hour. Mediterranean cyclones not only affect the close vicinity of the Mediterranean Sea, but other parts of Europe as well, including Hungary, where the amount of the precipitation can be highly affected by the presence of Mediterranean cyclones (particularly in winter). For this reason, we aim to quantify what portion of the annual total precipitation is connected to the Mediterranean cyclones.

 

Acknowledgements: The study contributes to the COST CA19109 action (MEDCYCLONES). Research leading to this study has been supported by the following sources: the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Fund (under grant K-129162), and the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014).