Simulating glacial cycles from the Pleistocene to the end of the Anthropocene

The climate of the Pleistocene is characterized by alternating cold (glacial) and warm (interglacial) periods. This cyclicity is mainly caused by the so-called Milankovitch cycles as a result of periodic changes in Earth’s orbital parameters. Many models have already successfully captured the non-linearities of the climate-cryosphere system responsible for the 100 kyrs cycles and the Mid-Pleistocene transition. However, these models widely differ in the number of explicit physical processes included and in the degree of complexity to solve them (from purely conceptual to Earth-system models). 

In this talk I will present a simple a-dimensional model that sequentially includes ice-sheet dynamics, ice aging and climate-cryosphere feedbacks. This model is able to capture the timing and shape of glacial cycles of the last 2 million years and can also be used to predict future glacial inceptions and thus the duration of the Anthropocene. Following different assumptions of human greenhouse gas emissions, I will show the expected timing of future glacial inceptions as well as the periodicities of the late Anthropocene glacial cycles.