EGU24-16617, updated on 11 Mar 2024
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Forecasting extreme events with the crossing-point forecast 

Zied Ben Bouallegue
Zied Ben Bouallegue
  • ECMWF, Forecast Department , Oxford, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (

The crossing-point forecast (CPF) is a new type of ensemble-based forecast developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The crossing point refers to the intersection between the cumulative probability distribution of a forecast and the cumulative probability distribution of a model climatology. Originally, the CPF has emerged as a consistent forecast with the diagonal score, a weighted version of the continuous ranked probability score targeting high-impact events. Ranging between 0 and 1, the CPF can serve as an index for high-impact weather and thus directly be compared with the well-established extreme forecast index. The CPF is also interpretable in terms of a return period and conveys a sense of a “probabilistic worst-case scenario”.  Using a recent example of an extreme event affecting Europe, we illustrate and discuss the performance and specificities of this new type of forecast for extreme weather forecasting.

Ben Bouallegue, Z (2023).  Seamless prediction of high-impact weather events: a comparison of actionable forecasts. arXiv:2312.01673

How to cite: Ben Bouallegue, Z.: Forecasting extreme events with the crossing-point forecast , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16617,, 2024.