The vertical structure of atmospheric rivers in Antarctica in the present-day and future

Recent extremes in Antarctic temperature, surface melt and sea ice loss have been robustly linked to the occurrence of atmospheric rivers (ARs). However, the precise mechanisms that generate variations in the surface impacts of ARs are poorly understood, especially in the Antarctic region. Based on Arctic evidence that the vertical and horizontal advancement of ARs over sea ice strongly depends on the sea ice-preceding surface type, the season, as well as meteorological conditions, we investigate the vertical structure and propagation of extreme ARs reaching sea ice and the Antarctic ice sheet, and further quantify the associated surface impacts. We further link the wind speed and surface vertical structure and proximity of ARs to variations in turbulent mixing and radiative fluxes, which ultimately determine the impact on the surface and subsequent AR pathway. While previous studies have mostly detected ARs based on  observations and reanalyses, we additionally assess AR characteristics based on 6 CMIP6 models under present-day and future conditions (SSP5-8.5) to robustly study their propagation and impacts when reaching Antarctic sea ice and the ice sheet.