EGU24-17019, updated on 11 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17019
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Remote sensing-based detection of resilience loss in the terrestrial water cycle

Romi Lotcheris1, Lan Wang-Erlandsson1,2,3, and Juan Rocha1,3
Romi Lotcheris et al.
  • 1Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
  • 2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibnitz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
  • 3Anthropocene Laboratory, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden

In the face of Anthropogenic change, ecosystems globally have shown evidence of resilience loss in the past several decades. By governing key processes in terrestrial ecosystems, the hydrological cycle is critical for Earth system stability. A resilient system is able to retain its function and structure in the face of external perturbations. Changes to driving hydrological variables, i.e., precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture, are thought to be important drivers of terrestrial ecosystem resilience, and vice-versa through land-atmosphere feedbacks. Resilience has been estimated through time series analysis, where an increase in metrics of system recovery time can signal a loss of system resilience. To date, such methods of resilience analysis have not yet been applied to hydrological variables. As a result, there is limited quantification of the role of the water cycle in Earth system resilience.

Here, using remotely sensed time series data, we employ both early warning signals of resilience loss and indicators of rate-based tipping to asses resilience loss in key hydrological variables at the global scale. In doing so, we present a spatially distributed assessment of global water resilience, highlight regions vulnerable to resilience loss, and provide insights into how water resilience affects terrestrial ecosystem resilience. Changes to hydrological variables can have wide-reaching impacts on ecological (e.g., affecting biodiversity, ecosystem structure and function), and social systems (e.g., affecting crop yields in breadbasket regions). Here, we present a new dimension to the characterisation of regions vulnerable to resilience loss.

How to cite: Lotcheris, R., Wang-Erlandsson, L., and Rocha, J.: Remote sensing-based detection of resilience loss in the terrestrial water cycle, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17019, 2024.

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