EGU24-17339, updated on 11 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17339
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Evaluation of the Impact of Uniform and Non-Uniform Resolution Implementations in Numerical Weather Prediction Models over the Accuracy of Short-Term Wind Prediction

Ruhi Deniz Yalcin1, M. Tugrul Yilmaz2, and İsmail Yucel3
Ruhi Deniz Yalcin et al.
  • 1Middle East Technical University, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Department of Civil Engineering, Türkiye (deniz.yalcin@metu.edu.tr)
  • 2Middle East Technical University, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Department of Civil Engineering, Türkiye (tuyilmaz@metu.edu.tr)
  • 3Middle East Technical University, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Department of Civil Engineering, Türkiye (iyucel@metu.edu.tr)

The increasing integration of renewable energy resources to the national grids necessitates
accurate prediction of power generation from those sources in terms of secure operation of
electricity grid system and energy trading. Electricity generation of renewable energy power
plants such as wind and solar are inherently affected by weather conditions. The wind condition
particularly is affected by surface characteristics such as orography and vegetation, therefore it is
the one of the near surface atmospheric variables having the strongest local variability. The high-
resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are utilized to take the local conditions
into account. WRF model is the one of the most common NWP models having been widely
investigated by various researchers. On the other hand, The Model for Prediction Across Scales
(MPAS) is a relatively new NWP model utilizing non-uniform mesh structures, developed by the
National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP). However, there are limited studies in the
literature which compare the prediction performance of WRF and MPAS model in terms of
surface wind speed. This study evaluates the prediction accuracy of near surface wind of two
downscaled NWP models namely, WRF-ARW and MPAS. Both models are configured with
almost identical physics suites and initialized with 3 hourly 00-UTC initialization of Global
Forecast System (GFS) data. The model outputs are obtained at 10 minutes interval for 48 hours
horizon. Hourly averaged model results are compared with observations from 104 on-site
meteorological stations located in Turkiye having different complexity in terms of correlation
coefficient and RMSE.

How to cite: Yalcin, R. D., Yilmaz, M. T., and Yucel, İ.: Evaluation of the Impact of Uniform and Non-Uniform Resolution Implementations in Numerical Weather Prediction Models over the Accuracy of Short-Term Wind Prediction, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17339, 2024.