Consecutive Disasters: an approach to multi-hazard exposure, vulnerability, and recovery evaluation at global scale

In an era marked by consecutive natural disasters, an advanced methodology for risk and impact assessment is critical. Recent disasters in Puerto Rico in 2017, Nepal between 2015 and 2017, and Indonesia in 2018 have highlighted the urgency of identifying regions at high risk of consecutive natural events, which are also characterised by vulnerabilities in organizational, social, and economic aspects that heavily influence the response and recovery stages following a disaster. The initial phase involved an analysis of the EM-DAT database to chart a global impact timeline within a multi-hazard scenario. Subsequent detailed assessments focused on riverine floods, individually and in conjunction with pluvial and wind events, across specific countries.

The research goal is to identify countries where the complex interplay between consecutive disasters is crucial to risk evaluation, given the significant impact on the components of exposure and vulnerability. Initially adopting a single hazard approach, the research analyses the sequence and probability of flood events alongside local exposure levels to identify at-risk countries. Subsequently, the study expanded to incorporate a multi-hazard perspective, including floods, intense rainfall, and strong winds, within a specific country to evaluate the relevance of this innovative approach in risk assessment. Early findings underscore the necessity to adapt damage assessments to the specific needs and scales of the regions studied, accounting for both single and multiple hazard scenarios.

Results demonstrate notable disparities in the annual exposure value percentage affected by consecutive disasters, providing key insights for stakeholders, academics, policymakers, and local administrators. This information provides them with a complex understanding of risk assessment and simplifies the formulation of more effective mitigation strategies. In conclusion, an integrated assessment of consecutive natural disasters alongside regional exposure levels provides a comprehensive framework for identifying areas in need of innovative risk management. Interdisciplinary cooperation is essential to comprehensively understand and improve the collective response and recovery from natural disasters, with particular emphasis on the socio-economic and infrastructural factors that distinctly affect the dynamics of consecutive events.