NH10.1 | Multi-hazard risk assessments: Innovative approaches for disaster risk reduction, management, and climate change adaptation.
EDI
Multi-hazard risk assessments: Innovative approaches for disaster risk reduction, management, and climate change adaptation.
Including NH Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture
Convener: Silvia De AngeliECSECS | Co-conveners: Stefano TerziECSECS, Robert Sakic TrogrlicECSECS, Anaïs CouasnonECSECS, Judith Claassen
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room M2, Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room M2
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Thu, 14:00
Fri, 16:15
This session focuses on approaches to multi-hazard risk assessments and their components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity), and to explore their applications to disaster risk reduction, adaptation and management.

Effective disaster risk reduction practices and the planning of resilient communities requires the evaluation of multiple hazards and their interactions. This approach is endorsed by the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the NextGenerationEU recovery plan. Multi-hazard risk and multi-hazard impact assessments look at interaction mechanisms among different natural hazards, and how spatial and temporal overlap of hazards influences the exposure and vulnerability of elements at risk. Moreover, the uncertainty associated with multi-hazard risk scenarios needs to be considered, particularly in the context of climate change and slow-onset hazards, such as Covid-19 and pandemics in general, characterized by dynamic changes in exposure and vulnerability that are challenging to quantify.

This session, therefore, aims to profile a diverse range of multi-hazard risk and impact approaches, including hazard interactions, multi-vulnerability studies, and multi-hazard exposure characterization. In covering the whole risk assessment chain, this session identifies potential research gaps, synergies and opportunities for future collaborations.

We encourage abstracts which present innovative research, case study examples and commentary throughout the whole disaster risk cycle on (i) multi-hazard risk methodologies which address multi-vulnerability and multi-impact aspects; (ii) methodologies and tools for multi-hazard risk management and inclusive risk-informed decision making and planning; (iii) methodologies and tools for multi-hazard disaster scenario definition and management for (near) real-time applications; (iv) cross-sectoral approaches to multi-hazard risk, incorporating the physical, social, infrastructural, economic, and/or environmental dimensions; (v) uncertainty in multi-hazard risk and multi-hazard impact assessment; (vi) evaluation of multi-hazard risk under future climate and slow-onset hazards, including pandemics; (vii) implementation of disaster risk reduction measures within a multi-hazard perspective.
Keywords: Disaster risk management, Multi-hazard (management, assessments, models), Multi-risk (management, assessments, models), Risk management, Risk/hazard Assessment (identification, Analysis and Evaluation)

Session assets

Orals: Thu, 18 Apr | Room M2

The oral presentations are given in a hybrid format supported by a Zoom meeting featuring on-site and virtual presentations. The button to access the Zoom meeting appears just before the time block starts.
Chairpersons: Silvia De Angeli, Anaïs Couasnon
14:00–14:30
|
EGU24-10624
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
solicited
|
Highlight
|
NH Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture
|
On-site presentation
Marleen de Ruiter

Recent disasters have demonstrated the growing challenges faced by society as a result of multi-hazards and compound events. The impacts of such disasters differ significantly from those caused by single hazard disasters: often the impacts of a multi-hazard disaster exceed those of the sum of the impacts of the individual hazards. Recognizing this complexity, the scientific community and international organizations, such as the UNDRR, have been advocating for a more integrated approach in multi-(hazard)risk research. This requires bridging across individual hazard types, but also learning from methodological advances made in neighbouring research fields such as the compound events community.

This talk aims to highlight recent advances in assessing the complexities of multi-(hazard)risk and discusses opportunities for further enhancing our modeling capabilities through multidisciplinary collaboration. A crucial challenge of modelling compound and multi-hazard risk, is that of the spatiotemporal dynamics of risk. This includes for example, an improved understanding of post-disaster recovery after multi-hazard disasters and the role of (changing) local contexts within which disasters take place such as the dynamics of socioeconomic vulnerability and the likelihood of post-disaster disease outbreaks. Embracing these challenges and opportunities can support more comprehensive and effective disaster risk management strategies in the future.

How to cite: de Ruiter, M.: Advancing multi-(hazard)risk science: embracing complexity and cross-disciplinary collaborations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10624, 2024.

14:30–14:35
14:35–14:45
|
EGU24-14261
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Marcello Arosio, Christopher J. White, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Mario Martina, and Claire Kennedy

The occurrence of multiple hazards poses significant risks to both human lives and assets. These risks often surpass those associated with individual hazards as they result from the interaction of natural hazards through simultaneous, cascading, or cumulative incidents. In several European regions, vulnerable to a range of climatic extremes, the society and environment are expected to undergo significant impacts in the next few decades. This is attributed to the rising frequency and severity of multi-hazard events, which are closely tied to changing climatic conditions.

In this context, the aim of this work is to develop and test a new framework for multi-hazard risk indicators that are suitable for use in risk-based assessments and decisions making. Indicators are used within different disciplines, offering insights into hazards, risk, resilience, vulnerability and other impacts related to climate change, amongst other factors. Such indicators can be used to model interacting hazards and cascading impacts within risk assessments, including a decision support system for multi-hazard disaster risk. This work, supported by a systematic literature review grounded on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA), introduces a framework for a suite of simple and usable multi-hazard indicators that balance complexity and usability to enable their uptake within natural hazard risk assessments (e.g., multi-hazard/risk rate). We adopt the following definition “Indicators are observable and measurable characteristics that can be used to simplify information to help understand the state of a concept or phenomenon, and/or to monitor it over time to show changes or progress towards achieving a specific change”. The development of these indicators prioritises the needs of end-users in disaster risk management, aiming to overcome limitations associated with their evolution being driven by climate scientists, without considering sectoral impacts or risk-based assessments. The framework for indicator development can contribute valuable insights for progressing multi-hazard risk management policies globally, particularly in regions experiencing an increased susceptibility to multi-hazard events.

The research has been carried out within the framework of the Horizon Europe project MEDiate (Multi-hazard and risk-informed system for Enhanced local and regional Disaster risk management). The primary objective of this project is to create a decision-support system (DSS) for disaster risk management that takes into account the complexities of multiple interacting natural hazards and their cascading impacts. The framework is implemented on four interactive multi-hazard pairs—compounding coastal and riverine flooding, extreme heat and drought, extreme wind and precipitation, and extreme precipitation and landslides—in four European testbeds: Oslo (Norway), Nice (France), Essex (UK), and Múlaþing (Iceland), respectively.

How to cite: Arosio, M., White, C. J., Gani Adnan, M. S., Martina, M., and Kennedy, C.: A framework for multi-hazard risk indicators, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14261, 2024.

14:45–14:55
|
EGU24-538
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Habal Kassoum Traore, Silvia De Angeli, Sébastien Lebaut, Gilles Drogue, and Eugène Konan Kouadio

Most scientific research acknowledges the overall complexity of the interaction mechanisms between different natural hazards, as well as complex interdependencies with societal drivers such as exposure and vulnerability. Comprehensive understanding of multi-risk dynamics remains crucial for sustainable development in many parts of the world. Moreover, the integration of multi-risk approaches into the planning and implementation of adaptation, resilience and disaster risk reduction measures remain a priority, specifically in developing countries.

Located in West Africa, Ivory Coast faces recurring floods and landslides, mainly due to heavy rainfall during the rainy season. These hazardous events have significant consequences, particularly in coastal urban areas such as Greater Abidjan, where continued and uncontrolled urbanization increases disaster risk, as highlighted in the Disaster risk profile of Ivory Coast by UNDRR in 2019. In this context, a multi-risk approach is essential to deal with the complexity of these interacting threats and their interdependencies with dynamic social and demographical conditions. The limited availability of open disaster risk data, such as the ‘Desinventar’ database endorsed by the UNDP and UNDRR, hinders a comprehensive assessment of risks in the country, particularly in Greater Abidjan, the most populated area. In addition to this gap, there is minimal research focused on conducting a multi-risk analysis on the scale of Greater Abidjan.

By applying the multi-hazard impact framework developed by De Angeli et al. (2022), we seek on the one hand to carry out a multi-hazard assessment with an emphasis on the causal dependencies between heavy rains, floods and landslides. In a second part, we carry out an assessment of the impact of these hazards, focusing on their spatial and temporal evolution, by including an assessment of the physical vulnerability of the built environment and the socio-economic vulnerability of affected populations. Our research draws on various georeferenced data sources, including historical meteorological data, satellite images, digital elevation models, as well as field surveys. These sources enable an in-depth understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of flood and landslide risk in the region.

Our research will make it possible to establish a multi-risk framework across Greater Abidjan, emphasizing the importance of considering flood and landslide risks in an integrated manner in the region. All the research falls within the scope of the national action plan of the Sendai framework for capacity building for disaster risk reduction in Ivory Coast (2016-2020).

How to cite: Traore, H. K., De Angeli, S., Lebaut, S., Drogue, G., and Konan Kouadio, E.: A spatio-temporal analysis of the risks of flooding and landslides in Greater Abidjan, Ivory Coast, by applying a multi-risk framework., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-538, 2024.

14:55–15:05
|
EGU24-7332
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Raviraj Dave and Udit Bhatia

The warming climate has increased the frequency and intensity of floods in urban areas globally. The accelerating populace, coupled with rapid urbanization, amplifies the impact of floods that strain local communities. Existing disparities of unequal exposure to floods in vulnerable communities further burden post-disaster recovery, necessitating comprehensive urban-scale risk assessments. In this study, we quantify this unequal exposure by integrating flood hazards induced by stream flow, rainfall, and storm tides with the measure of socio-economic disadvantage. A 3-way coupled hydrodynamic model has been developed on the MIKE+ over the flood-prone city of Kozhikode, integrating the influence of stormwater drains, tide, and flow through the channel to generate flood hazard scenarios. Socio-economic vulnerability is quantified using a nonparametric data envelopment analysis that accounts for demographic indicators. The initial assessment reveals a disparity in flood exposure, with socially vulnerable populations in Kozhikode bearing a disproportionately higher burden, exacerbating challenges for less resilient communities. The results from the application of the Lorenz curve at the ward level further emphasize the inequitable distribution of flood risk. Our study provides valuable insights into the nuanced dynamics of different drivers of floods and their impact on communities for formulating targeted planning and adaptation strategies for reducing flood risk equitably and sustainable urban resilience. 

How to cite: Dave, R. and Bhatia, U.: Unveiling Socio-economic Inequity in Local-Scale Compound Flood Risks in Indian Coastal City, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7332, 2024.

15:05–15:15
|
EGU24-15835
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Wiebke Jäger, Timothy Tiggeloven, Marleen de Ruiter, and Philip Ward

Understanding multi-hazard impacts and dynamics is essential for understanding risk and developing effective risk reduction measures. Recent studies have been reporting more extreme, compounding impacts from compound events, consecutive disasters or multi-hazards than from individual hazard events owing to complex dynamics and interdependencies of the risk drivers hazard, exposure and vulnerability. As our current understanding of these impacts is primarily based on individual notable events, this study aims to contribute with a systematic review and comparison of socio-economic impacts from historical single- versus multi-hazard events globally. To this end we analyze the data of the international disaster database EM-DAT, which is the main publicly available source that contains quantitative information on socio-economic impacts with global coverage and widely-used in disaster risk science. Being aware of its known issues and limitations, including biases and inconsistencies, we also investigate and evaluate its trustworthiness for the purpose of gaining understanding on multi-hazard impact and risk dynamics.

How to cite: Jäger, W., Tiggeloven, T., de Ruiter, M., and Ward, P.: What can we learn about multi-hazard impact and risk dynamics from the international disaster database EM-DAT? , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15835, 2024.

15:15–15:25
|
EGU24-21355
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Amelie Hoffmann, Theresa Frimberger, Michael Krautblatter, and Daniel Straub

Unprecedented weather extremes have affected the Alpine space in recent years, significantly impacting human populations, the economy, and the environment. Extreme weather events can trigger a multitude of alpine hazards that, due to the distinct characteristics of the Alpine natural and built environment, have the potential to induce severe compound and cascading impacts. Despite recent scientific evidence that climate change will contribute to more intense and more frequent weather extremes, our understanding of local implications on multi-hazards, compound and cascading effects, and future risks remains insufficient. Consequently, risk managers and decision-makers lack a systematic approach to assess future changes in multi-hazard risk.

We are developing a practical approach that aims to help local risk managers answer fundamental questions about the drivers of multi-hazard risk in their respective Alpine regions. To that end, we combine a questionnaire about the current risk situation with a systematic basis for propagating the effects of future changes, covering all aspects of the risk chain, namely hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity. Ultimately, the method aims to help (1) identify important drivers of (future) risk, (2) assess their contribution to the (future) risk landscape, and (3) identify relevant risk pathways for targeting (future) risk management practice.

The approach relies on detailed knowledge of local conditions that can only be provided by local stakeholders as well as more general input on the future trends in climate and anthropogenic developments that must be provided by higher authorities and the scientific community. This work is part of the X-RISK-CC project, funded by the Interreg Alpine Space Program 2021-27. The approach will be applied to some of the project's pilot regions to help generate insights that will assist risk managers in the evaluation and management of newly emerging risks associated with weather extremes in their respective regions.

How to cite: Hoffmann, A., Frimberger, T., Krautblatter, M., and Straub, D.: Developing a practical approach to assessing the drivers of multi-hazard risk in the Alpine space, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21355, 2024.

15:25–15:35
|
EGU24-3392
|
NH10.1
|
On-site presentation
Carlos Domenech, Èlia Cantoni-Gómez, Philip Ward, Nicole van Maanen, Stefano Terzi, Roxana Ciurean, Gianluca Pescaroli, Irene Manzella, Silvia Torresan, and Claudia Vitolo and the EO4MULTIHAZARDS Team

Impacts from hazards have drastically increased over the last decades, leading to both economic and non-economic consequences across the globe (Cutter 2018; IPCC 2023; Poljansek et al. 2017). When multiple hazards and their interactions are taken into consideration, it becomes apparent that the impacts of a combination of hazards are different than the sum of the individual events (Kappes et al. 2012; Terzi et al. 2019). In response to the widespread consequences of recent multi-hazard events and the appeals from the international community to improve their assessment and management (e.g., UNDRR 2019), there has been a transition in recent years from a primarily single-hazard paradigm towards a more comprehensive assessment of multi-hazards (Ward et al. 2022; De Angeli et al. 2022; AghaKouchak et al. 2020). While there is an urgent need to enhance preparedness for high-impact multi-hazard events, the means to achieve this are currently not clear.

In the context of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) EO4Multihazards project (High-Impact Multi-Hazards Science), we capitalize on the latest advances in satellite Earth Observation technology, including the Copernicus Sentinels series, the ESA’s Earth Explorers, and the meteorological missions to better understand the drivers and dynamics leading to high impact cascading and compounding multi-hazard events, and to improve the estimation of the impacts on society and ecosystems. The project will develop four science cases, tackling both compound and cascading events, along with corresponding demonstration cases aiming to derive actionable information from the scientific developments. The outcomes will be part of an open multi-hazard events database designed to facilitate collaborative research and future scientific progress.

Two science cases investigate the effects of climate-related extreme events in the Adige River catchment. One focusing on hot/dry events on the Alpine mountainous region, where raising temperatures and lack of snowfalls cause hydrological impacts that compound with heatwaves and wildfires. The other one evaluates the impact of climate-related extreme events on the middle-lower course of the river: data driven tools will be implemented to describe the interactions between climate-related hazards, coastal hazards such as sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, anthropogenic land use, and water quantity and quality parameters. The third science case is located in the Southeast region of the UK where the impacts of hot/dry compound in a scenario of sustained high temperatures and their effects on the stability of the terrain and geologically driven events are being evaluated. The last science case focuses on the small island developing State of Dominica to evaluate the multi-hazard scenario mainly from a wet compound and volcanic perspective (i.e., successive storms, landslides, volcanic hazards, and cross-border issues) using digital twins and advanced modelling.

The overall goal is to maximize societal benefits by evaluating where space-based EO can support disaster risk management, aligning with literature calls for such evaluations, and contributing to a comprehensive understanding of multi-hazard events to support decision-makers and relief efforts.

How to cite: Domenech, C., Cantoni-Gómez, È., Ward, P., van Maanen, N., Terzi, S., Ciurean, R., Pescaroli, G., Manzella, I., Torresan, S., and Vitolo, C. and the EO4MULTIHAZARDS Team: Role of Earth Observation in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment and management , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3392, 2024.

15:35–15:45
|
EGU24-12934
|
NH10.1
|
On-site presentation
Andrea Vianello, Stefano Terzi, Peter James Zellner, Kathrin Renner, Alexander Jacob, and Massimiliano Pittore

Multi-hazard events are causing severe impacts on our economy, society and environment. Moreover, the final damages are usually greater than the sum of single hazard impacts. However, the amount of data and observations covering multi-hazard conditions is still very limited. For this reason, the EO4MULTIHA project (https://eo4multihazards.gmv.com/), funded by the European Space Agency, aims at developing an open database gathering and harmonizing event information coming from already existing event databases to support multi-hazard(-risk) research. 

In particular, the database of the EO4MULTIHA project is a Relational Data Base Management System, based on open-source solution, that includes several novelties and features, such as 

(i) the link to existing event datasets through cross links and APIs to increase reusability with open standards (e.g. RESTfull APIs and OGC standards), 

(ii) the link to an extensive suite of data from satellite, climatological, in-situ, campaign and relevant statistics needed to describe hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts of multi-hazard events, 

(iii) the possibility to apply spatial and temporal filtering of events, 

(iv) the integration of Geostories focusing on specific multi-hazard events combining the available data and information into explanatory reports and 

(v) an initial focus on the 3 project study areas (the Adige River Basin in Italy, the southern part of the United Kingdom and the Dominica Island in the Carribean) with the possibility for future expansion to other areas, 

(vi) the development of a publicly available and open database with uploads coming from authorized contributors, 

(vii) standard metadata that describe datasets and allow their findability in international catalogues of the research community. 

The final product will be made available in a web portal facilitating the access of researchers, decision-makers and citizens to quantitative data supporting the understanding and analysis of complex multi-hazard events.

How to cite: Vianello, A., Terzi, S., Zellner, P. J., Renner, K., Jacob, A., and Pittore, M.: The EO4MULTIHA open Multi-Hazard events database, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12934, 2024.

Coffee break
Chairpersons: Robert Sakic Trogrlic, Judith Claassen
16:15–16:17
16:17–16:27
|
EGU24-3054
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
solicited
|
On-site presentation
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armas

During the last years, the co-occurrence of various natural hazards and the COVID-19 pandemic significantly added to the multi-hazard tapestry worldwide, translating into a boost in multi-risk research. Nevertheless, the dynamics of vulnerability across time and space within the more and more prominent multi-hazard contexts is only beginning to be explored, emerging as an intriguing but also challenging research topic.

Concurrent or cascading hazards lead to compounded impacts that may increase the vulnerability to a certain hazard, while mitigation strategies can also misfire and contribute to the augmentation of vulnerability. Such convoluted interactions prove that it has never been more important to understand how and why vulnerability to natural hazards varies across scales and evolve depending on the unfolding of multi-hazards, if we are to break down the silos of hazard management approaches and devise fruitful multi-risk management plans.

This study aims to explore the dynamics of vulnerability in a multi-hazard context under an Impact Chain approach, focusing on two independent, co-occurrent hazardous events that impacted Romania in 2020-2021, namely river floods and the COVID-19 pandemic. The enhanced Impact Chain builds on its previous variant developed within the Paratus Project, integrating data pertaining to hazards, impacts, exposed elements, vulnerabilities, adaptation options, and the various connections established among them. The chain is based on diverse data and information sources: scientific literature, hydrological warnings, legal documents, official medical reports, official press releases, statistical data, and grey literature in the form of news reports. The input of first responders and leaders in charge of emergency management is added to this list, integrating into the enhanced Impact Chain the perspectives of influential stakeholders.

The main novelty consists of new links and element types that capture 1) the augmentation of vulnerabilities that stem from different hazard impacts, and 2) the unwelcome effects of adaptation options that are intended to mitigate vulnerabilities or impacts, but inadvertently lead to their escalation. These additions enable both the diagnosis of past or present multi-risk management, the anticipation of potential crises, shortcomings of management approaches, and the transformation of certain vulnerabilities into drivers of vulnerability.

The Impact Chain informs on the focal point of mitigation efforts, also bringing to light the vulnerabilities that remained unaddressed by the adaptation options, as well as the ones that were most augmented by impacts or adaptation options working in asynergy. Due to their potential to perpetuate the failures of multi-risk management, these vulnerabilities represent the foremost considerations for future strategic initiatives.

This study takes a leading initiative in research dedicated to vulnerability, being the first to address vulnerability fluctuations applied in a case study focusing on multiple co-occurrent hazards. The Impact Chain approach stands as a novel framework for examining vulnerability, also demonstrating high reproducibility across different hazards and scales. In the face of the new challenges posed by the increasingly frequent concurrent or cascading hazards, such tools can make the difference between effectively managed multi-hazards and those that escalate into unprecedented disasters.

How to cite: Albulescu, A.-C. and Armas, I.: Decoding vulnerability dynamics in a multi-hazard context. An Impact Chain-based exploration, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3054, 2024.

16:27–16:37
|
EGU24-20325
|
NH10.1
|
On-site presentation
Anna Maria Zaccaria, Massimiliano Pittore, Claudio Marciano, Maria Polese, Gabriella Tocchi, Cristine Griffo, Andrea Pirni, Stefano Terzi, Silvia De Angeli, Francesca Ferretti, Luca Pozza, Serena Cattari, Sergio Lagomarsino, Antonella Peresan, and Daniela Di Bucci

Storylines are increasingly used in climate science to integrate the physical and socioeconomic components of phenomena, make climate evolution more tangible and provide unity of discourse. This approach has proved successful in describing realistic realizations of complex and uncertain processes, such as those related to climate change, and communicating it to both scientific and praxis-oriented audiences, hence supporting decision making. However, storylines have been applied in single-hazard contexts without addressing complex multi-hazard conditions. For these reasons, here we propose to extend storylines for multi-hazard risk assessments combining both disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation activities.

In this context we introduce the concept of risk storylines, which refers to a defined, plausible combination of events, their consequences and the factors possibly affecting these elements (e.g., vulnerability or external risk drivers), as well as the physical, socio-ecological and functional elements at risk. Risk storylines are therefore scenario-based and can refer either to past events or to plausible future events, always considering the most relevant direct and indirect drivers of risk. A risk storyline should contain all relevant information necessary to describe the risks of concern, including a comprehensive description of the scope of the storyline (e.g., the purpose and operational context, the related urban configuration and the reference timeframe), the most relevant risks and related factors in play, namely hazards, exposure, vulnerabilities, and the different impacts that are linking together the former elements, as well as a synthetic narrative description of the risk storyline, describing main facts and consequences. Also, any scenario describing one or more current or future environmental conditions should be explicitly indicated, e.g. the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) or any other demographic / socio-economic future scenarios (in the case of storylines developed for future events). Whenever possible, reasoning on the probability of occurrence of such scenarios is also developed.

In order to complement the narrative description of the risk storyline with a more structured conceptual and graphical representation, the integrated use of impact chains has been explored. This combination provides a flexible and convenient framework to convey actionable information about those dynamic and complex environmental and socio-economic conditions possibly associated with high-impact, multi-hazard events and processes, and to consider in a single consistent framework both climate-driven (e.g., extreme hydrometeorological conditions) and climate-independent (e.g., earthquakes) hazards.

Risk storylines can be developed through participative, desktop-based or partly-analytic approaches and are particularly suitable for co-development activities with stakeholders and domain experts, with a great potential for supporting and improving risk prevention and mitigation decision-making under relevant aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.

How to cite: Zaccaria, A. M., Pittore, M., Marciano, C., Polese, M., Tocchi, G., Griffo, C., Pirni, A., Terzi, S., De Angeli, S., Ferretti, F., Pozza, L., Cattari, S., Lagomarsino, S., Peresan, A., and Di Bucci, D.: Storylines and impact chains of multi-hazard risk scenarios in the framework of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20325, 2024.

16:37–16:47
|
EGU24-10177
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Liz Jessica Olaya Calderon, Silvia Cocuccioni, Federica Romagnoli, Funda Atun, Massimiliano Pittore, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Cees van Westen, Richard Sliuzas, Iulana Armas, Ruxandra Mocanu, and Seda Kundak

Analysing past disaster events is essential for advancing our comprehension of the complex interactions among risk factors and the subsequent cascading impacts. Assessing the direct and indirect consequences of past events and the reasons why these occurred can help estimate the impacts and losses for future events as well as pinpoint risk mitigation measures. Although forensic analysis investigation aims to address disasters and tackle the root causes comprehensively, a systematic method is still needed to represent the interplay among diverse risk factors and enable a cross-cutting and quantitative analysis of disaster databases.

Impact chains provide a clear and intuitive conceptual representation of risk, the interaction among their elements (hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) and their cascading impacts.  Highlighting the type of relation between the risk elements, impact chains explicitly consider risk mitigation and climate change adaptation measures and aim to integrate multiple data collections and analytical approaches. This interdisciplinary approach enables a more holistic analysis of disaster events, providing a structured framework to identify past weaknesses and deficiencies, thereby enhancing strategies for disaster risk management and fostering improvements in disaster databases.

Our research aimed to explore the potentialities of impact chains for analyzing historical disaster events, including how this method can support the forensic analysis approach in the context of compounding events. We pursued the following goals: (i) to develop a multi-hazard impact chain from historical disaster events, (ii) to collect the disaster data based on the impact chain developed in order to analyze the interrelationships between the risk components, and (iii) discuss how the results can support the forensic analysis approach.To accomplish this objective, a diverse set of disaster events were analysed. These events are characterized by being multi-hazard, having a significant impact, and covering a diversity of sectors, geographic locations, and scales (Romania, Turkey, the Caribbean, the Alps, etc.). These analyses were carried out under the PARATUS project.

Preliminary results showcase the significant potential for using this method to develop more comprehensive impact chains, particularly when representing multi-hazard events. One of the key achievements identified is that this approach emphasizes the role of vulnerability and the underlying risk drivers in the overall assessment.   The subsequent phase of this study focuses on enhancing the disaster databases by collecting data for the different elements included within the impact chain. This undertaking aims to facilitate a quantitative analysis of available data, scrutinize the interconnectedness of variables, and elucidate how these variables influence overall risk. Finally, through this comprehensive approach, we aim to provide valuable insights into the field of disaster research and management, fostering a deeper understanding of potential disaster risks and impacts and planning risk reduction measures accordingly.

How to cite: Olaya Calderon, L. J., Cocuccioni, S., Romagnoli, F., Atun, F., Pittore, M., Schneiderbauer, S., van Westen, C., Sliuzas, R., Armas, I., Mocanu, R., and Kundak, S.: Analysing historical disasters to support multi-hazard risk assessment: enhancing forensic analysis through Impact Chains , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10177, 2024.

16:47–16:57
|
EGU24-9760
|
NH10.1
|
On-site presentation
Zélie Stalhandske, Jonathan Chambers, Chahan Kropf, Marleen C. de Ruiter, and David N. Bresch

The health effects of climate change, from intensified heatwaves to increased environmental suitability for infectious diseases, have become increasingly evident in recent years. In this study, we investigate the intersection of multiple climate-related health hazards from 2003 to 2022 using indices from the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, including heatwaves, drought, malaria, and wildfire smoke exposure. Through a global analysis at a 0.25-degree resolution, we identify regions where these hazards have overlapped, highlighting hotspots of simultaneous exposure. We then perform detailed case studies in countries most affected by these hazards, where we explore the interactions between seasonal climate variations, demographic shifts, and the exposure to health hazards. The findings of this study can help guide health system adaptations and inform policy by revealing where, when, and whom these hazard combinations affect. Finally, while the health effects of some of these combinations have been studied, the compounding effects are generally unknown. Mapping their co-occurrence can help in designing relevant epidemiological studies to better understand these consequences.

How to cite: Stalhandske, Z., Chambers, J., Kropf, C., de Ruiter, M. C., and Bresch, D. N.: Hotspots of Multi-hazard Risk to Human Health in a Changing Climate, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9760, 2024.

16:57–16:59
16:59–17:09
|
EGU24-10199
|
NH10.1
|
On-site presentation
Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Noemi Padron, Karina Reiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, and Philip Ward and the MYRIAD-EU

Navigating the complexities of multi-hazard risks poses a significant challenge, requiring a holistic understanding that extends beyond theoretical frameworks. Although recent frameworks have contributed greatly to theoretical advancements, a critical gap remains in providing practical insights for on-the-ground stakeholders. These stakeholders, including policymakers, decision-makers, and practitioners are often responsible for preparing and dealing with the risks arising from multi-hazard events. Within the MYRIAD-EU project, the objective is to empower stakeholders on the ground with a systemic approach encompassing multi-risk and multi-sector assessment and management.

 

To unravel the intricate web of systemic risk interdependencies across and within Europe and facilitate an improved assessment and management of multi-hazard risks, several comprehensive semi-structured interviews were conducted within the Pilot regions of the MYRIAD-EU project. These interviews spanned diverse geographic, hazard, and sectoral domains. The Pilot regions are the Canary Islands, the Veneto region, the Danube region, Scandinavia, and the North Sea.

 

The insights obtained from these interviews, both qualitative and quantitative, including perspectives from both land and sea, offer a nuanced understanding of hazard combinations, vulnerability characteristics, changes in exposure and vulnerability over time, and the synergies and asynergies inherent in disaster risk reduction measures across Europe. Our findings aim to bridge the gap between theoretical frameworks and practical applications, providing valuable information for stakeholders to enhance their preparedness and response strategies in the face of multi-hazard risks. At the same time, the results will be used to develop a better understanding about the dynamic vulnerability and exposure of multi-(hazard-)risk.

How to cite: van Maanen, N., de Ruiter, M., Jäger, W., Casartelli, V., Daloz, A. S., Geurts, D., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Ma, L., Monteleone, L., Padron, N., Reiter, K., Šakić Trogrlić, R., Torresan, S., Tatman, S., and Ward, P. and the MYRIAD-EU: Conversations on multi-hazard risk: Qualitative and quantitative insights from MYRIAD-EU interviews on the dynamics of risk drivers and disaster risk reduction synergies in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10199, 2024.

17:09–17:19
|
EGU24-17565
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Alessandro Borre, Eva Trasforini, Daria Ottonelli, Tatiana Ghizzoni, and Roberto Rudari

In an era marked by consecutive natural disasters, an advanced methodology for risk and impact assessment is critical. Recent disasters in Puerto Rico in 2017, Nepal between 2015 and 2017, and Indonesia in 2018 have highlighted the urgency of identifying regions at high risk of consecutive natural events, which are also characterised by vulnerabilities in organizational, social, and economic aspects that heavily influence the response and recovery stages following a disaster. The initial phase involved an analysis of the EM-DAT database to chart a global impact timeline within a multi-hazard scenario. Subsequent detailed assessments focused on riverine floods, individually and in conjunction with pluvial and wind events, across specific countries.

The research goal is to identify countries where the complex interplay between consecutive disasters is crucial to risk evaluation, given the significant impact on the components of exposure and vulnerability. Initially adopting a single hazard approach, the research analyses the sequence and probability of flood events alongside local exposure levels to identify at-risk countries. Subsequently, the study expanded to incorporate a multi-hazard perspective, including floods, intense rainfall, and strong winds, within a specific country to evaluate the relevance of this innovative approach in risk assessment. Early findings underscore the necessity to adapt damage assessments to the specific needs and scales of the regions studied, accounting for both single and multiple hazard scenarios.

Results demonstrate notable disparities in the annual exposure value percentage affected by consecutive disasters, providing key insights for stakeholders, academics, policymakers, and local administrators. This information provides them with a complex understanding of risk assessment and simplifies the formulation of more effective mitigation strategies. In conclusion, an integrated assessment of consecutive natural disasters alongside regional exposure levels provides a comprehensive framework for identifying areas in need of innovative risk management. Interdisciplinary cooperation is essential to comprehensively understand and improve the collective response and recovery from natural disasters, with particular emphasis on the socio-economic and infrastructural factors that distinctly affect the dynamics of consecutive events.

How to cite: Borre, A., Trasforini, E., Ottonelli, D., Ghizzoni, T., and Rudari, R.: Consecutive Disasters: an approach to multi-hazard exposure, vulnerability, and recovery evaluation at global scale , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17565, 2024.

17:19–17:29
|
EGU24-19858
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Gabriella Tocchi, Maria Polese, Carlo Del Gaudio, and Antonella Peresan

A comprehensive understanding of essential characteristics of urban settlements, including typo-morphological, demographic, social, economic and institutional features is essential for developing effective strategies to enhance the resilience of urban settlements to natural hazards. The complexity and concentrated infrastructure in urban settlements can exacerbate the vulnerability to natural hazards . The high population density in cities increases the potential for casualties and impacts during events like earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes. Indeed, rapid urbanization often occurs without adequate consideration of natural hazard risks, leading to poorly planned structures and insufficient resilience measures. The interconnectedness of urban systems, including transportation, utilities, and communication, heightens the susceptibility of cities to systemic failures during disasters. Informal settlements and marginalized communities within urban areas are often disproportionately affected, lacking the resources and infrastructure to withstand natural hazards. The reliance on centralized resources and critical facilities can exacerbate vulnerabilities, as disruptions to these systems have cascading effects on the entire urban population.

In this study, a national-scale characterization of urban settlements in Italy is proposed using only open-source data. Urban settlements range from small towns and cities to large metropolis, with local government or administrative boundaries often defining their limits. Publicly available data on the built environment and population in urban areas is typically provided with reference to the administrative level. Information on the degree of urbanization, urban centeredness, residential population, and altimetric zone are used for a preliminary classification of Italian municipalities. Using such information, clustering of the municipalities is also carried out. Clustering urban settlements may help understand the most common types and features of urban settlements in a country.

For a proper characterization of an urban context, the impending hazard should also be identified. Due to the variability of geomorphological, climatic, and hydrological features, the incidence of different hazards throughout the Italian territory varies, as does their potential to generate significant impacts. A score-based procedure is proposed to allow the ranking of different hazards and to infer which hazards could be more relevant in a given urban context. For each relevant peril, the value of the corresponding intensity measure on the hazard map at a given return period is used to define a normalized score. Through scoring, a ranking of all Italian municipalities with respect to a given hazardous event is carried out.

This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005

How to cite: Tocchi, G., Polese, M., Del Gaudio, C., and Peresan, A.: Multi-hazard exposure characterization of urban settlements: a clustering proposal using open source data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19858, 2024.

17:29–17:39
|
EGU24-6139
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Elena Bosi

Natural disasters and extreme weather events are defining this decade and will continue to do so in the future, impacting societies and ecosystems worldwide. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, adopted to mitigate these risks, also significantly emphasizes the protection and preservation of cultural heritage. It calls for cooperation among national authorities to raise awareness about the impact of hazards on cultural heritage and aligns with the goals of international organizations such as ICOMOS. Although earthquake risk vulnerability has been extensively studied, research on other extreme events, such as landslides and floods, is still limited. Additionally, a growing body of literature on multi-hazard management deals with managing combined natural events. However, there has not been enough research explicitly addressing the vulnerability of cultural heritage.

The research focuses on vulnerability as a multidimensional characteristic and its relationship to multi-scale architectural assets, including individual buildings, aggregates and historic urban cores. Vulnerability is determined by physical, social, and economic dimensions and explores its significance in different phenomena, including compounding and cascading events. A workflow is proposed, consisting of several steps: identifying significant events, assessing affected areas, evaluating the level of damage incurred, and conducting a vulnerability assessment. To understand how to address the issue of vulnerability assessment in a multi-hazard context, it is necessary to observe the effects of past disasters on the built environment.

The proposed methodology follows an inductive approach. The first part of the study, which is also the current focus of the work, consists of the selection of suitable cases for field investigation, intending to analyze the level of physical damage, the geology and hydrology, the history of the environment and events, and the development of building techniques. These studies explore possible relationships between disasters, building techniques and changing settlement patterns. The second phase, transitioning from the particular to the general, will be displayed by defining a list of methodological guidelines based on a critical abstraction from the findings of the first phase. Specifically, this will involve moving from damage observation to vulnerability assessment. General multi-hazard vulnerability criteria for historic centres will be established to analyze practical implications and purposes, including raising community awareness through increased knowledge of the architectural heritage and reconsidering historical studies as essential tools to mitigate future vulnerability.

How to cite: Bosi, E.: Through damage analysis and historical learning: a workflow for multi-hazard vulnerability assessment in cultural heritage preservation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6139, 2024.

17:39–17:40
17:40–17:50
|
EGU24-3784
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Cicilia Steffi Lukman and Jo-Ting Huang-Lachmann

In recent years extreme climate events have been increasing in frequency and severity. Multi-hazard risks and its cascading effects cause higher economic and non-economic losses, such as human lives and declines in people’s well-being. This brings forward the need for improvement in disaster risk reduction measures, including the transition from a response-based to a preventive-based measures to minimize the loss in the future. However, adaptation measures differ based on the local context, which also means one methodology in assessing disaster risk reduction in one area might be different to another. This paper will analyse the existing assessment methodologies addressing the measures taken in reducing multi-hazard risks, taking into consideration the local characteristics where the methodology is applied, the type of multi-hazards, the most effected sectors and vulnerable groups, the future scenarios considered, and the costs and benefits of the measures which are included in the assessment. The type of hazards considered in this paper are based on The HuT Nexus Project, including forest fires, landslides, droughts, heatwaves, floods, and storm-surges. The aim of this paper is to review the methodologies of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation assessment and analyse the strengths and weaknesses thus enhancing the possibility to be transferred and adapted in other case studies.

How to cite: Lukman, C. S. and Huang-Lachmann, J.-T.: Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: A Critical Review on Methodologies Addressing Multi-Hazard Risks, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3784, 2024.

17:50–18:00
|
EGU24-10316
|
NH10.1
|
On-site presentation
Daniela Molinari, Panagiotis Asaridis, Diana Caporale, Daria Ottonelli, and Alessandro Rubino and the RETURN WP 7.2 research team

Within the context of the Italian RETURN (Multi-risk science for resilient communities under a changing climate) project, the objective of WP 7.2 is the definition of national guidelines for the evaluation of the effectiveness of alternatives of intervention in natural risks management, by considering in detail Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) tools. The focus is on (i) multi-hazard contexts, for which state-of-the-art and knowledge is limited, (ii) the different phases of the risk management chain, and (iii) the variety of structural and non-structural measures that can be adopted. The present contribution describes results reached so far in this direction. First, First, we propose a flowchart that illustrates the process leading to the ranking of alternative strategies through MCA. The objective of the flowchart is to highlight the operative steps required for its implementation, including: (i) the identification of intervention alternatives and their characterization in terms of spatial and temporal scale of effectiveness, potential risk reduction, and secondary impacts on interested communities, (ii) recognition of stakeholder’s objectives and their respective dimensions, (iii) definition of attributes and indicators according to which alternatives are evaluated, (iv) selection of the most appropriate MCA tool and definition of related parameters, and (v) performance of sensitivity analysis. The development of the flowchart emphasized that establishing guidelines for applying MCA to multi-hazard risk management requires two ongoing fundamental steps (i) an in-depth, generalized investigation of the types of elements exposed to the different natural hazards as well as the identification of potential direct and indirect impacts on them in case of an event; (ii) the definition of an abacus of alternatives which identifies the most promising measures that can be implemented in a given context, and characterizes them in terms of potential risk reduction or increase (with respect to different hazards), and temporal and spatial scale of effectiveness.

How to cite: Molinari, D., Asaridis, P., Caporale, D., Ottonelli, D., and Rubino, A. and the RETURN WP 7.2 research team: Towards a Multi-Criteria Analysis for the evaluation of risk reduction strategies effectiveness in multi-hazard environments, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10316, 2024.

Orals: Fri, 19 Apr | Room M2

The oral presentations are given in a hybrid format supported by a Zoom meeting featuring on-site and virtual presentations. The button to access the Zoom meeting appears just before the time block starts.
Chairpersons: Stefano Terzi, Anaïs Couasnon
08:30–08:32
08:32–08:42
|
EGU24-4275
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Richard Ybañez, Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay, and Bruce Malamud

Natural hazards interrelationships include one natural hazard process triggering or influencing another (e.g., an earthquake triggering a landslide) and often contribute to the severity of disasters. This study focuses on a methodology for systematically providing an overview of natural hazard interrelationships in the Philippines. We first explore the breadth of single hazards that might occur in the Philippines, subdividing them into 22 different natural hazard types (with groupings of geophysical, hydrological, shallow-earth, atmospheric, biophysical, space). A 22x22 natural hazard interaction matrix is subsequently developed to identify primary natural hazards that could potentially trigger or increase the probability of secondary natural hazards. Then, for each potential interrelationship (e.g., earthquake-flood) we critically review the literature to find evidence whether that interrelationship might occur, based on past case histories or theory. In total, we use 250 sources, consisting of local scientific and grey literature, and civil defence bulletins. The detailed information is synthesized into a database of 12 types of information (e.g., process, primary and secondary hazards, date and period). Interactions without existing records in the Philippines, but plausible based on global literature, are also incorporated. A total of 76 interrelationships out of a possible 484 were identified. High-impact interrelationships between natural hazards commonly observed in the Philippines include earthquake-triggered landslides, rainfall-induced landslides, and subsidence. Less common hazard interrelationship examples are the 2022 Abuyog landslide-tsunami and the 2008 Panay landslide-flood. The majority (34 out of 76) of the primary hazards involved geophysical hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides, triggering or increasing the likelihood of other geophysical hazards, flooding, and shall earth hazards. Tropical storms, having a very high frequency in the Philippines, also trigger or increase the likelihood of several secondary hazards. The number of unique interactions (76) identified in the matrix continues to grow as more literature, both in the Philippines and globally, are collected. This matrix would serve to inform scientists, policymakers, and first-responders on possible secondary hazards in anticipation of an impending natural hazard impact. The Philippines’ geologic and meteorological setting exposes it to a large variety of high frequency and magnitude natural hazards necessitating the identification of historical and hypothetical hazard interactions for the purpose of preparedness and mitigation.

How to cite: Ybañez, R., Lagmay, A. M. F., and Malamud, B.: A Systematic Overview of Hazard Interrelationships in the Philippines, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4275, 2024.

08:42–08:52
|
EGU24-20217
|
NH10.1
|
On-site presentation
Alex de La Cruz Coronas, Beniamino Russo, Barry Evans, Agnese Truchi, Mattia Leone, and Marianne Buegelmayer-Blaschek

Multi-hazard events refers to scenarios where two or more hazards occur in the same region and/or time period where the resulting impact is either greater or lesser than the sum of their impacts if they were to happen independently. The combined effects resulting from multi-hazard scenarios are therefore unlikely to be assessed through simple addition of losses, due to the independent effects, and instead require system approaches to understand and quantify risk.

The dynamics between single hazards during multi-hazard events are complex and diverse. Hence, as a first step, it is necessary to differentiate their main typologies (coincident or consecutive) based on their occurrence in time and space. On the one hand, coincident hazards represent events happening within the same geographical region, either simultaneously or with overlapping time frames (i.e. a secondary hazard is occurring whilst a primary hazard is still taking place). On the other hand, consecutive hazards take place sequentially in the sense that a second hazard impacts a system prior to its full recovery from the previous one. A second step in understanding multi-hazard situations involves identifying the interrelationships established (between single hazards) during compound events (interdependence, triggering, change conditions, association or mutual exclusion). 

Following these steps it becomes possible to understand the way that one hazard can influence the magnitude and/or likelihood of subsequent hazards. Furthermore, in order to adequately develop a risk assessment of multi-hazard scenarios, it is also necessary to evaluate the exposure and vulnerability (and the changes that they might suffer) of the risk receptors. 

In this context, project ICARIA (Improving ClimAte Resilience of crItical Assets, www.icaria-project.eu, GA: 101093806) aims at developing a comprehensive asset level modeling framework to quantify the risk associated with multi-hazard events for critical infrastructures and services in European Regions. Specifically, it focuses on three case studies:  the Barcelona Metropolitan Area in Spain, the Salzburg Region in Austria and the South Aegean Region in Greece. 

Based on a literature review, workshops with relevant stakeholders and the analysis of historic events, the main multi-hazard events of interest for the case studies have been identified. For all of them, the physical interactions established between the single-hazards involved have been determined in order to set an initial step to develop multi-hazard risk assessment methodologies in a later phase of the project. The joint probability of these events will be also estimated for current and future scenarios. The multi-hazard events taken into account within ICARIA are the following ones:

  • Pluvial flood and storm surge
  • Drought and forest fire
  • Drought and heat wave
  • Heat wave and forest fire
  • Extreme wind and forest fire
  • Heat wave, drought and forest fire

The understanding of the mechanism and effect of the abovementioned events will enable the assessment of the risk that these scenarios pose to the critical infrastructures of a region. Thus, these methodologies will stand as a valuable tool to improve the preparedness of key infrastructure to cope with such events.

How to cite: de La Cruz Coronas, A., Russo, B., Evans, B., Truchi, A., Leone, M., and Buegelmayer-Blaschek, M.: An approach to modeling interactions between extreme weather events during multi-hazard events, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20217, 2024.

08:52–09:02
|
EGU24-6422
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Toby Jones, David Stephenson, and Matthew Priestley

The risk from compound natural hazards (such as extratropical cyclones) can be large, but the aggregate loss over yearly timescales is significantly greater. The total insured losses from three European cyclones in February 2022 was over €3.5 billion.

This study has investigated the correlation between wind and precipitation annual aggregate severity caused by extra-tropical cyclones over the Europe-Atlantic region (from 30°N 100°W to 75°N 40°E ) in the 41 years of ERA5 reanalyses from 1980-2020.

Simple aggregate severity indices were constructed by summing exceedances above chosen thresholds of wind gust speed maxima and precipitation totals for all storms in a year that pass within 5° radius of each grid point location.

At low thresholds, there is a strong positive correlation between wind and precipitation aggregate severity most likely induced by the common dependence on the total number of storms. However, at higher thresholds, where the aggregate indices are expected to be better predictors of wind and flood losses, negative correlations start to appear especially over western Europe e.g. a correlation of -0.22 for severity indices aggregated over France at thresholds of 20ms-1 and 20mm.

This suggests that accumulated wind and flood losses in Europe should not be assumed to be either independent or positively correlated, and that there is a potential for risk diversification.

How to cite: Jones, T., Stephenson, D., and Priestley, M.: Correlation of wind and precipitation annual aggregate severity of European cyclones, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6422, 2024.

09:02–09:12
|
EGU24-2125
|
NH10.1
|
On-site presentation
Christopher White, Mohammed Adnan, Ryan Lee, John Douglas, Miguel Mahecha, Fiachra O'Loughlin, Edoard Patelli, Alexandre Ramos, Matthew Roberts, Olivia Martius, Enrico Tubaldi, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler

Multi-hazard events, characterized by the simultaneous, cascading, or cumulative occurrence of multiple natural hazards, pose a significant threat to human lives and assets. This is primarily due to the cumulative and cascading effects arising from the interplay of various natural hazards across space and time. However, their identification is challenging, which is attributable to the complex nature of natural hazard interactions and the limited availability of multi-hazard observations. This presentation, focused on a recently published article in Science of the Total Environment (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169120), presents an approach for identifying multi-hazard events during the past 123 years (1900-2023) using the EM-DAT global disaster database. Leveraging the ‘associated hazard’ information in EM-DAT, multi-hazard events are detected and assessed in relation to their frequency, impact on human lives and assets, and reporting trends. The interactions between various combinations of natural hazard pairs are explored, reclassifying them into four categories: preconditioned/triggering, multivariate, temporally compounding, and spatially compounding multi-hazard events. The results show, globally, approximately 19% of the 16,535 disasters recorded in EM-DAT can be classified as multi-hazard events. However, the multi-hazard events recorded in EM-DAT are disproportionately responsible for nearly 59% of the estimated global economic losses. Conversely, single hazard events resulted in higher fatalities compared to multi-hazard events. The largest proportion of multi-hazard events are associated with floods, storms, and earthquakes. Landslides emerge as the predominant secondary hazards within multi-hazard pairs, primarily triggered by floods, storms, and earthquakes, with the majority of multi-hazard events exhibiting preconditioned/triggering and multivariate characteristics. There is a higher prevalence of multi-hazard events in Asia and North America, whilst temporal overlaps of multiple hazards predominate in Europe. These results can be used to increase the integration of multi-hazard thinking in risk assessments, emergency management response plans and mitigation policies at both national and international levels.

How to cite: White, C., Adnan, M., Lee, R., Douglas, J., Mahecha, M., O'Loughlin, F., Patelli, E., Ramos, A., Roberts, M., Martius, O., Tubaldi, E., van den Hurk, B., Ward, P., and Zscheischler, J.: Reclassifying historical disasters: from single to multi-hazards, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2125, 2024.

09:12–09:22
|
EGU24-22042
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
Virtual presentation
Lakshmi S Gopal, Hemalatha Thirugnanam, Maneesha Vinodini Ramesh, and Bruce D. Malamud

This study introduces an automated information extraction (IE) method for assessing natural hazard severity using online sources (news articles and social media). A web crawler collects 4-15 daily news articles from diverse web sources, amassing 4,000 reports on natural hazard events between 05/2020 and 11/2023, while adhering to respective web page privacy rules. The extracted data analyses hazard severity, focusing on the impact factors of casualties and damages. This analysis aids decision-makers and researchers in comprehending the impact of hazards and developing mitigation strategies. Real-time web data severity analysis can also support first responders in resource allocation during and post-disasters.

A natural language processing-based algorithm identifies hazard impact factors using grammatical patterns, PoS (Parts of Speech) tagging, and NER (Named Entity Recognition). From these, we identify numeric values for casualties, infrastructural and financial damages and public necessities, along with place names. The data is structured in a database for analysis.

We utilize TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making method, to assign a severity rank to each location. In TOPSIS, we define the positive ideal solution as the maximum values for positive attributes (e.g., number of rescue operations, people rescued, and government authorities’ involvement). The negative ideal solution represents the minimum values for negative attributes (e.g., damages and fatalities) in each criterion. We then calculate relative closeness (0.0 to 1.0) by measuring each criterion’s distance from the positive and negative ideal solutions. A higher relative closeness indicates less severity, while a lower value suggests greater severity in hazard events. This rank aids in identifying the area with the highest severity, enabling first responders to allocate resources effectively by prioritizing the locations with the most significant impact. Each location’s severity rank is based on relative closeness to positive and negative ideal solutions.

We apply our methodology to the 2018 Kerala, India floods, using 200 news reports (national and local news portals, blogs), identifying the Alappuzha district as the most severely affected (highest severity score) and the Kasargod district the least affected (lowest severity score). Agricultural loss emerges as a significant factor, emphasizing the need for sustainable solutions. Results are consistent with official Kerala State Disaster Management Authority documentation, demonstrating the methodology’s accuracy. Our methodology provides near real-time information for identifying and prioritizing severely affected areas, aiding efficient resource allocation, rehabilitation efforts, and post-disaster decision-making.

How to cite: S Gopal, L., Thirugnanam, H., Vinodini Ramesh, M., and Malamud, B. D.: Web-Based Severity Assessment of Natural Hazards: Natural Language Processing Based Extraction of Severity Impact Factors for Informed Decision Support, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-22042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-22042, 2024.

09:22–09:25
09:25–09:35
|
EGU24-14927
|
NH10.1
|
solicited
|
On-site presentation
Markus Reichstein, Vitus Benson, Nuno Carvalhais, Dorothea Frank, and Claire Robin

Climate change is increasingly leading to severe and frequent extreme events, ranging from forest fires to heatwaves, droughts, and floods. These events are likely not only intensifying as our climate continues to warm but also interlink across various environmental and social systems. For example, a heatwave can trigger forest fires, which in turn lead to air pollution impacting public health. Droughts can disrupt agricultural production, causing market fluctuations and exacerbating socio-economic inequalities, potentially leading to social unrest. Despite the growing systemic risks posed by these extreme climate events, they are often inadequately addressed in national strategies for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The core challenge in tackling these risks stems from their roots in the dynamic boundary conditions of global warming, such as rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Conventional risk models designed for assessing discrete, non-climate-related hazards or based on past climate are becoming increasingly invalid in this non-stationary scenario. In addition, process-based models are challenged by high-resolution complex-systems forecasting tasks. This is due to both epistemic limitations in understanding climate-ecosystem-society interactions and computational constraints. We discuss howArtificial Intelligence (AI) can serve as a complementary and effective tool in understanding, managing, and communicating these systemic risks, given its ability to process vast datasets and uncover patterns within complex systems. The vision is an AI enabled Early warning system of complex risk, operating on several time-scales (hours to decadal).

How to cite: Reichstein, M., Benson, V., Carvalhais, N., Frank, D., and Robin, C.: Climate Extremes and Systemic Risks for Sustainable Development Pathways – Artificial Intelligence for Risk Mitigation?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14927, 2024.

09:35–09:45
|
EGU24-10353
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Agnese Turchi, Amanda Tedeschi, Daniela De Gregorio, Giulio Zuccaro, Alex de la Cruz Coronas, Marianne Bügelmayer-Blaschek, Ioannis Zarikos, and Mattia Leone

The risk/impact assessment of climate-related extreme events has been historically addressed through single-hazard approaches that so far limited the development of a comprehensive, harmonized and integrated multi-hazard modelling framework capable of holistically understanding the weight of climate impacts on complex socio-eco-technological systems, as well as the definition of possible climate-resilient development pathways (IPCC, 2022). The expected increase in frequency and magnitude of meteorological hazards aggravated by climate change often manifests itself through the occurrence of complex interactions, characterised by compound events (e.g., floods and landslides, triggered by heavy rainfalls) and cascading effects (e.g., forest fires fuelled by persistent drought, triggered by heat wave conditions).

Depending on how the combination of these events occurs over time and space, the impacts resulting from multi-hazard conditions might be greater than the sum of the effects of individual hazards, and the nature of the damage will vary depending on both the complexity and interdependencies between hazards and/or impacts involved. Understanding the implications of compound events (whether coincident or consecutive) on specific categories of risk receptors – and of cascading effects arising from the propagation of impacts across assets and services – is the starting point to develop an asset-level modelling framework that effectively supports and orients decision-making processes towards the identification of strategies and measures to improve resilience.

In this perspective, a paradigm shift towards an effective multi-hazard impact modelling approach requires that 1) the possible interactions between hazards, and their dependence on global warming and climate change trends are taken into account, 2) the multi-sectoral consequences of complex impact scenarios leading to cascading effects are identified, and 3) the effect of possible organizational, spatial, functional and physical resilience measures targeting multiple hazards are evaluated.

This contribution presents the holistic multi-hazard impact modelling framework developed within the EU-funded Horizon Europe ICARIA Project (Improving ClimAte Resilience of crItical Assets, www.icaria-project.eu, GA: 101093806). The framework aims at ensuring consistency in the analysis across different hazard categories (heat waves, forest fires, droughts, floods, storm surges, and wind gusts, including compound events), a harmonized evaluation of exposure and vulnerability of critical assets (buildings, open spaces and infrastructures) and services (water, transport, energy, waste, natural areas, and tourism sectors) potentially at risk, and the potential tangible direct and indirect impacts of complex multi-hazard scenarios, including cascading effects across interconnected service networks and systems. The modelling framework is also designed to quantify the benefits of resilience strategies and measures and to define suitable, sustainable and cost-effective solutions for climate resilience.

The methodological approach is grounded on interconnected “elementary bricks”, namely Hazard, (H) Exposure (E), Vulnerability (V), Dynamic Vulnerability (DV), and Damage (D), framed with respect to time and space interdependencies and interacting with local Coping Capacity (CC), Adaptive Capacity (AC) and Transformative Capacity (TC) as main resilience components. The contribution introduces relevant taxonomies, replicable modelling workflows, and quantifiable impacts and resilience metrics applicable in different geographical contexts, proposing a service-oriented implementation approach aimed at maximising the exploitation of existing models and data while introducing specific methods to address uncertainties and data/knowledge gaps.

How to cite: Turchi, A., Tedeschi, A., De Gregorio, D., Zuccaro, G., de la Cruz Coronas, A., Bügelmayer-Blaschek, M., Zarikos, I., and Leone, M.: A Holistic Asset-Level Modelling Framework for a Comprehensive Multi-Hazard Impact Assessment: Insights from the ICARIA Project, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10353, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10353, 2024.

09:45–09:55
|
EGU24-1060
|
NH10.1
|
On-site presentation
Cristina Deidda and Wim Thiery

Climate change impacts are evident across a wide range of society sectors. Extreme events like floods, heatwaves, and storms pose a significant threat to the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T), resulting in infrastructure damage, economic losses, and health issues for the population. Future projections indicate an elevated risk of coastal flooding for seaports and ports, along with heightened exposure of railways and roads to extreme temperatures. This escalating risk underscores the imperative for implementing effective adaptation measures to enhance the resilience of the entire transport network. Our analysis focuses on assessing the vulnerability of all modes within the European Core Network (airports, seaports, railways, roads, inland water) to climate-related extreme events. We examine the specific challenges and impacts on each transport mode, while also investigating the increasing exposure across different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios.

 

How to cite: Deidda, C. and Thiery, W.: Is Europe's Transportation Network ready to face Climate Change?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1060, 2024.

09:55–10:05
|
EGU24-19965
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Alexandre Dunant, Alexander Densmore, Thomas Robinson, Sihan Li, Mark Kincey, Nick Rosser, Ramesh Guragain, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Sweata Sijapati, Katherine Arrell, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson

Modelling risk systems, in which natural hazards and exposure elements are intricately intertwined, poses a significant challenge, especially over large spatial and temporal scales. To address this issue, this study introduces the use of hypergraphs as a modelling framework for dynamic multi-hazard systems. Hypergraphs have found applications across disciplines for effectively capturing complexities in various systems.

The study demonstrates the suitability of hypergraphs to multihazard risk assessment through a case study of  the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal and its subsequent coseismic landslides. The initial test case is followed by the generation of cascading scenarios initiated by thirty high-magnitude simulated earthquakes across Nepal and analysis of the subsequent cascading impacts arising from landsliding on buildings and roads. The modelling is being developed to provide scientific evidence to inform preparedness planning at a range of scales.

Our results show that this approach is effective, offering several key advantages. First, the easy compatibility with spatial data enables a more accurate representation of real-world scenarios. Second, the proposed method is hazard-agnostic, allowing it to accommodate various types of natural hazards. Third, the high computational efficiency of the hypergraph-based model enables the use of large scenario ensembles. Finally, the capability to handle complex interactions between hazard processes and exposure elements streamlines the risk assessment process.

We emphasise that the adoption of hypergraphs as a modelling framework has the potential to substantially enhance multi-hazard risk assessment in natural systems. By providing a comprehensive and flexible approach, this method offers a promising avenue for improving risk management strategies and bolstering preparedness measures to mitigate the impacts of environmental disasters.

 

How to cite: Dunant, A., Densmore, A., Robinson, T., Li, S., Kincey, M., Rosser, N., Guragain, R., Man Rajbhandari, R., Van Wyk de Vries, M., Sijapati, S., Arrell, K., Harvey, E., and Dadson, S.: Modelling the impact from cascading geohazards using hypergraphs, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19965, 2024.

10:05–10:15
|
EGU24-7475
|
NH10.1
|
On-site presentation
Songmi Park, Young-Il Song, Jinhan Park, Ara Kim, Eunbi Lee, and Joohyun Park

Climate change is having simultaneous impacts on various sectors such as health, ecology, and agriculture, increasing the demand for assessment and technology development for each sector and their interactions. South Korea's climate change is progressing more rapidly than the global average, leading to an increasing trend in natural disasters such as heatwaves, cold snaps, floods, and droughts due to high climate variability. The damages caused by the four major disasters (heatwaves, cold snaps, floods, and droughts) are interconnected with the occurrence of vector-borne diseases, infectious diseases, and food supply issues, leading to an increased demand for integrated impact assessments on these interactions.
The need for policy decision support in evaluating climate policies and developing robust plans for climate change response is increasing in South Korea. To address this, a research team is currently developing a climate change integrated assessment platform that takes into account both internal and external factors related to climate change. Specifically, they are in the process of developing an integrated assessment model based on interconnections between sectors to evaluate the impact and vulnerability of climate change. Furthermore, work is underway to develop climate change impact assessment models for health, water management, agriculture, forestry, behavior, and the marine and fisheries sectors. Additionally, they are considering the development of climate change impact assessment models for environmental policy coordination.

Acknowledgement
This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry &Technology Institute(KEITI) through "Climate Change R&D Project for New Climate Regime." , funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE) (2022003570007)

How to cite: Park, S., Song, Y.-I., Park, J., Kim, A., Lee, E., and Park, J.: Development of framework for decision support integrated impact assessment platform and application technology for climate change adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7475, 2024.

Posters on site: Fri, 19 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X4

The posters scheduled for on-site presentation are only visible in the poster hall in Vienna. If authors uploaded their presentation files, these files are linked from the abstracts below, but only on the day of the poster session.
Display time: Fri, 19 Apr 14:00–Fri, 19 Apr 18:00
Chairpersons: Silvia De Angeli, Stefano Terzi
X4.66
|
EGU24-1622
|
NH10.1
Mark Bebbington, Alexandre Dunant, David Harte, Melody Whitehead, and Stuart Mead

We outline a conceptual approach to forecast multihazard risk from a cascade of natural hazards events. Network models have been proposed for cascades of natural hazard events, for example storm, flooded river, breached stop banks, damaged infrastructure. These have generally not taken time into account, with the cascade of events effectively assumed to occur instantaneously. We extend the methodology to account for multiple temporal processes, often occurring on quite different time scales, and hence incoporating variable delays. Further, since state of the art physical models generally involve heavy computation, we advocate the use of computationally simple probability distributions to describe the dynamics and interaction of the hazard events in our proposed network model. All model components have estimable parameters, which permits application to specific situations. This enables a larger number of simulations of the model, ensuring greater accuracy of probabilistic model forecasts. The modelling approach takes into account the dynamic and evolving nature of the temporal processes. Thus, it may be possible to identify key elements of the system that are most vulnerable, develop strategies for mitigating risks, and examine restoration strategies.

How to cite: Bebbington, M., Dunant, A., Harte, D., Whitehead, M., and Mead, S.: Including Dynamics in a Network Based Stochastic Multihazard Model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1622, 2024.

X4.67
|
EGU24-2335
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
Ting Wang and Xinru Tan

The disaster chain caused by strong typhoons has caused huge social economy and ecological environment impact on coastal areas. In this study, a special risk assessment model is proposed for the typhoon-storm tide-flood-embankment disaster chain based on its disaster mechanism and chain disaster law. The proposed model is developed to reflect both the disaster hazard which based on the probability distribution function of Bayesian network, and the carrier vulnerability which based on the evaluation index system. The model has been successfully applied in the coastal cities of Guangdong Province, China, and the disaster chain risk under three typical typhoon scenarios has been simulated. The results reveal that the risk distribution of different disasters caused by typhoons is different due to the different decisive factors. For storm tide disaster, the highest risk is mainly in the coastal city of Zhuhai, and as the influence of sea level increase caused by typhoon gradually weakens from coastal area to inland, the disaster chain risk gradually weakens from coastal to inland. For flood disaster, the highest risk is mainly distributed in the economically developed and densely populated Foshan City due to its low carrier vulnerability. For embankment disaster, the highest risk is mainly distributed in Zhongshan City due to its low design grade of dike, indicating that the condition of water conservancy project is an important factor in determining whether the dike failure or not. The research results are of great significance for coping with typhoon disaster chain in coastal areas, and have certain reference value for identifying the chain risk transmission of typhoon disaster. 

How to cite: Wang, T. and Tan, X.: Typhoon disaster chain risk assessment: A model based on disaster hazard and carrier vulnerability, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2335, 2024.

X4.68
|
EGU24-3379
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
Aikaterini Gkika, Ourania-Anna Lymperi, Emmanouil Varouchakis, Andreas Pavlides, Efstratios Zacharis, and Efthymios Lekkas

Modern electric power systems are critical and highly complex infrastructures that are designed to ensure a reliable electricity supply to consumers under normal operating conditions and common failures or expected disturbances. Although these infrastructures have achieved high degrees of reliability, they are however not capable of effectively dealing with unpredictable extreme situations with low-frequency rates but severe impacts, usually caused as a result of extreme weather events. In parallel, electricity grids are aging and were designed for climate bands that are now obsolete because of the changing climate and the subsequent weather extremes; this has left infrastructure operating outside of its tolerance levels. Consequently, the adverse effects of climate change on networks and their associated financial costs make it essential to establish long-term action plans and adaptation strategies to enhance network resilience.

In this paper, a methodological framework is developed to support decision-making for enhancing the climate resilience of the Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator (HEDNO), allowing for the promotion of risk knowledge, and the evaluation and prioritization of the required technical interventions. The selected hazards are divided into acute climate risks (i.e., wildfire, flood, rainfall, high wind, lightning strike, snowfall, heatwave) and long-term climate risks (i.e., drought, humidity, ambient temperature rise, sea level rise, ground instability/ landslide, coastal erosion). The approach includes the performance of a comprehensive and systematic assessment of vulnerability and risk for all HEDNO’s administrative regions, following international best practices and in particular the European Commission’s technical guidance on the climate proofing of infrastructure.

The process followed consists of 2 separate phases:

  • Climate vulnerability assessment: This phase includes an initial screening for identifying potential climate risks through sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability analysis based on scientific evidence and geographical considerations.
  • Climate risk assessment: A more detailed analysis is performed to assess the impact of climate risks and determine the adaptation solutions required. The purpose is to examine the longer cause-effect chains linking climate risks to how a network infrastructure project performs across several dimensions (technical, health and safety, environmental, social, financial, etc.) and to investigate interactions between different factors. During this analysis, issues that might not have been picked up by the vulnerability assessment can be identified.

This methodology has led to the development of vulnerability and risk maps per hazard for each HEDNO’s region, highlighting climate change hotspots. Moreover, a more advanced approach has been adopted by conducting Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the spread of the risk for various areas in Greece because of three hazard groups: acute climate risks, long-term climate risks, and major risks for the electricity distribution network. The investigated areas include the geographical regions corresponding to the 5 HEDNO’s Regional Departments, i.e., Attica, Central Greece, Peloponnese-Epirus, Macedonia-Thrace, and Islands. More than 10,000 simulations have been conducted on each of the investigated regions for the above hazard groups and the results are provided as histograms.

The proposed framework aims to provide a methodology resource for power utilities to implement targeted climate change adaptations and improve network resilience.

How to cite: Gkika, A., Lymperi, O.-A., Varouchakis, E., Pavlides, A., Zacharis, E., and Lekkas, E.: A Tool for Assessing Acute and Long-term Climate Risks for Electric Power Distribution Utilities, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3379, 2024.

X4.69
|
EGU24-3843
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
Robert Sakic Trogrlic, Karina Reiter, Roxana Ciurean, Stefania Gottardo, Silvia Torresan, Anne Sophie Daloz, Lin Ma, Noemi Padron-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, and Philip Ward and the MYRIAD-EU Team

Recent findings indicate an increasing frequency of multiple hazards and their interrelationships (such as triggering, compound, and consecutive events) across Europe, highlighting the urgency for resilience enhancement. This shift demands a transition from focusing solely on single-hazard risks to embracing multi-hazard risk assessment and management strategies. Despite substantial progress in understanding these complex events, the predominant approach still concentrates on individual hazards (like floods, earthquakes, droughts), with a relatively narrow grasp of the actual needs of stakeholders on-site. Addressing this gap, our study aims to explore the challenges of shifting towards multi-hazard risk management from the viewpoint of European stakeholders. Through five workshops conducted in various European locations (Danube Region, Veneto Region, Scandinavia, North Sea, and Canary Islands) and a specialized expert workshop, we pinpoint five key challenges: governance issues, understanding of multi-hazards and multi-risks, current disaster risk management practices, bridging scientific knowledge to policy and practice, and the lack of data. These challenges are interdependent and must be approached comprehensively, as the legacy of existing practices presents a significant obstacle in moving from single-hazard to multi-hazard risk management. Looking ahead, we identify several promising strategies to address some of these challenges, including novel methods for multi-hazard characterization, a unified terminology, and an all-encompassing framework to guide multi-hazard risk assessment and management. We advocate the necessity to broaden our perspective beyond natural hazards, incorporating other types of threats for a more complete multi-hazard risk understanding, and to integrate multi-hazard risk reduction within broader developmental objectives.

How to cite: Sakic Trogrlic, R., Reiter, K., Ciurean, R., Gottardo, S., Torresan, S., Daloz, A. S., Ma, L., Padron-Fumero, N., Tatman, S., and Ward, P. and the MYRIAD-EU Team: Challenges in Assessing and Managing Multi-Hazard Risks: A European Stakeholders' Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3843, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3843, 2024.

X4.71
|
EGU24-9418
|
NH10.1
|
ECS
Silvia De Angeli, Alessandro Borre, Eva Trasforini, Daria Ottonelli, Giorgio Boni, and Tatiana Ghizzoni

When two or more natural hazards occur in the same location simultaneously or within a short time frame, the physical integrity of assets and infrastructures can be compromised, and the resulting damage can be higher than the simple sum of the damages generated by individual hazards occurring in isolation. Current literature highlights the lack of comprehensive frameworks to quantify the damages caused by multiple hazards. Complexity in formalizing quantitative aspects and understanding feedback loops between hazard, exposure, and vulnerability emphasizes this gap. 

This research presents a comprehensive mathematical framework for quantitatively assessing multi-hazard physical damage on exposed assets, such as buildings or critical infrastructures, over time. The proposed framework covers both the damages generated by concurrent hazards (i.e., hazards that impact the same assets simultaneously), as well as by consecutive hazards (i.e., the second hazard impacting the asset while it is still undergoing recovery from the damages caused by the first hazard). In case of concurrent hazards, the proposed framework models the increased damage resulting from the combined impacts. In the case of consecutive events, the proposed formalization considers the effect of cumulative damages, the reduction in the exposure value, the modification of vulnerability in the time in between hazards, and the recovery dynamics. 

The framework is applied to a real-world case study in Puerto Rico, including the impacts from the concurrent wind and flood generated by the passage of Hurricane Maria, as well as the impacts caused by the consecutive seismic sequence of 2019-2020. The application to the Puerto Rico case study well highlights the potentialities and limitations of the proposed approach, specifically regarding data availability.

By offering a generalized formalization to perform quantitative multi-hazard impact assessments across a diverse array of natural hazards and incorporating amplification phenomena and recovery dynamics, the framework provides scientists and decision-makers with a thorough and enhanced comprehension of the impacts resulting from concurrent and consecutive events. This deeper understanding serves as valuable input for conducting comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessments and implementing effective disaster risk reduction strategies.

How to cite: De Angeli, S., Borre, A., Trasforini, E., Ottonelli, D., Boni, G., and Ghizzoni, T.: A mathematical framework to quantify physical damages from concurrent and consecutive hazards, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9418, 2024.

X4.72
|
EGU24-20536
|
NH10.1
Local and regional decision making for compound risk governance: a case study derived hypothetical model
(withdrawn)
Eric Lindquist and Thomas Thaler