Integrated Modeling of Agricultural and Hydrological Systems for Sustainable Resource Allocation: A Case Study of the Khuzestan Region

This research employs a systems dynamics approach to simulate the intricate dynamics of the agricultural sector, a predominant consumer of resources, with a focus on the Khuzestan region. By meticulously reviewing reports and conducting field visits, we extracted essential inputs for both hydrological and agricultural models. Our objective was to formulate the behaviors of hydrology and agriculture, providing a comprehensive understanding of the region's phenomena. Employing Vensim software, we modeled and integrated the agriculture and hydrology of the region, subsequently deriving a mathematical model for analysis[1].

The model's performance was assessed over a 96-month period from 2011 to 2019, utilizing evaluation metrics such as Lux indices, protein production index, and yield index. Notably, the study reveals that, with the exception of 2018 when Khuzestan experienced flooding, the region consistently faces high water stress[2]. Remarkably, the environmental sector claims the largest share of resource consumption in the region, shaping the allocation dynamics[3]. Analyzing the prevailing agricultural patterns, our findings indicate that sugarcane, wheat, and rice exhibit the highest financial income per cubic meter of water consumption.

This research contributes valuable insights into the sustainability challenges of resource allocation in the Khuzestan agricultural sector. The integrated modeling approach provides a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay between hydrological and agricultural components, shedding light on potential strategies for optimizing resource management. The findings hold significance for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners seeking sustainable solutions to address water stress and enhance agricultural productivity in comparable regions.

 

 

Keywords: Systems Dynamics; Agricultural Modeling; Hydrological Modeling; Resource Allocation, Khuzestan Region

[1] Mehranfar, N., Kolahdoozan, M., & Faghihirad, S. (2023). Development of multiphase solver for the modeling of turbidity currents (the case study of Dez Dam). International Journal of Multiphase Flow, 168, 104586.

[2] Vahid, R., Farnood Ahmadi, F., & Mohammadi, N. (2021). Earthquake damage modeling using cellular automata and fuzzy rule-based models. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14, 1-14.

[3] Naghedi, S.R., Huang, X. and Gheibi, M., 2023. A smart dashboard for forecasting disaster casualties: An investigation from sustainable development dimensions (No. EGU23-17237). Copernicus Meetings.