The leverage effect of experience: how flood frequency and perceived loss of control influence individual protective motivation

The last 2023 IPCC report draws attention to the change in the occurrence and frequency of weather extremes and natural hazards (Lee et al., 2023). It emphasizes the urgent need for climate change mitigation and adaptation to counteract the risks to life, nature, values, and societies. A recent study by Köhler et al. (2023) provides insight into the fact that frequent flood experiences increase the willingness to undertake protective actions at the individual level but simultaneously lead to decreased self-reported resilience. Still, there is a gap in understanding why frequent flood experiences influence protective motivation and what other factors play a role. Building upon this, this study explores the role of frequent experience in protective motivation and why more experienced people are more likely to adapt. Also, we introduce a measure for control experience, the individual's perceived efficacy in managing past flood situations, to understand the role of perceived resistance in affecting protective motivation.

To meet this aim, we apply Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) from the field of psychology to understand how frequent flood events and control experiences influence coping and threat appraisal, two factors that have been shown to impact people's motivation to change behavior. Structural equation Modeling is used to detect processes and interactions between several variables in one model. The data comes from a survey in Saxony (Germany) in 2020.

We find that both the frequency of experienced floods and the control experience increase threat appraisal but decrease coping appraisal. Threat appraisal could, therefore, be a channel through which flood experience positively influences protective motivation. The negative influences of flood experience on coping appraisal could limit this positive impact, at least to some extent. Our findings carry profound implications in understanding better the protective behavior of people who have undergone multiple flood events. We deliver crucial insights into how the frequency of experienced floods, perceived efficacy in managing past flood events, and individual protective behavior are related.

 

Citations:

Lee, H., Calvin, K., Dasgupta, D., Krinner, G., Mukherji, A., Thorne, P., ... & Park, Y. (2023). IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and    III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing  Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

Köhler, L., Masson, T., Köhler, S., & Kuhlicke, C. (2023). Better prepared but less resilient : the paradoxical impact of frequent flood experience on adaptive behavior and resilience. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23(8), 2787–2806.