NH9.3 | Resilience building, risk reduction to recovery: Assessments, frameworks, tools and experiences
EDI
Resilience building, risk reduction to recovery: Assessments, frameworks, tools and experiences
Convener: Jung Hee HyunECSECS | Co-conveners: Andrea ReimuthECSECS, Nithila Devi Nallasamy, Felix Bachofer, Jörn Birkmann, Denyse S. DookieECSECS, Michael Szoenyi
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–17:55 (CEST)
 
Room 0.15
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X4
Posters virtual
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X4
Orals |
Wed, 16:15
Wed, 10:45
Wed, 14:00
Today, we are challenged by substantial economic and non-economic losses resulting from natural disasters and the gradual encroachment of environmental changes. These challenges are expected to intensify, propelled by the complex interplay of climate change and the relentless expansion of urban areas. The question of how to adapt to the hazards of the future is therefore of great importance – not only for scientists, but also for practitioners. Nevertheless, a number of critical knowledge gaps exist in our scientific understanding of risk assessment and adaptation strategies. Currently the assessment of future risk trends is predominantly focused on scenarios of future hazards like sea level rise, floods and typhoons. Scenarios encompassing socio-economic changes and projections of exposure and vulnerability are often overlooked. This omission is significant and can lead to potentially flawed and imprecise estimations of future risk and adaptation needs. Furthermore, knowledge on the feasibility of various, often competing, adaptation options remain limited. Typically, such knowledge relies on a narrow set of evaluation criteria, such as economic costs and benefits, and a view towards singular adaptation measures.

We cordially invite submissions of theoretical, methodological, and empirical studies aimed at advancing our understanding of future risk and exploring potential adaptation strategies. We encourage contributions that encompass local case studies, regional insights and global perspectives from multi- and transdisciplinary research endeavors. Of particular interest are coastal cities with rapid growth dynamics and immense adaptation pressures, as can be observed in emerging economies.

Orals: Wed, 17 Apr | Room 0.15

The oral presentations are given in a hybrid format supported by a Zoom meeting featuring on-site and virtual presentations. The button to access the Zoom meeting appears just before the time block starts.
Chairpersons: Andrea Reimuth, Michael Szoenyi
16:15–16:25
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EGU24-16180
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NH9.3
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On-site presentation
Ronald Corstanje, Nikolaos Toumasis, Marko Stojanovic, Daniel Simms, JIm Harris, and John White

Given the increasing pressures and perturbations on ecosystem due to climatic variability, there has been a developing interest in determining the resilience of ecosystems, particularly given the potential of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts between alternative ecosystem states. There are numerous conceptual definitions of resilience in environmental systems and, even when resilience is clearly described for a particular ecosystem, it can challenging to quantify a priori to a state change in the ecosystem of interest. Ecosystems that approach transition exhibit generic changes in dynamical behaviour that can be used to signal the approach of a critical transition. When an ecosystem approaches a critical transition, its dynamics “slowdown”, and start exhibiting properties associated to the process critical slowing down (CSD), such as increased recovery time, variance, and autocorrelation. Here we develop a set of analytical methods based on measures of variance and autocorrelation to determine the current state of ecosystem and their likelihood to be at CSD, so to demonstrate how to operationalise what to date has been developed as a theoretical framework. We use wavelets as a measure of identifying changes in the variance term, and autocorrelation was modelled using an Bayesian dynamic linear model. We illustrate this on three case studies; i) on an experimental soil system subjected to dry wet cycles; ii) on an intensely managed ecological system in the Everglades and iii) on extensively managed grassland systems in the UK. We illustrate that although any of the resilience characteristics can be used to define resilience, the identified properties of a resilient response must be described for different contexts.

How to cite: Corstanje, R., Toumasis, N., Stojanovic, M., Simms, D., Harris, J., and White, J.: Operationalising ecological resilience, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16180, 2024.

16:25–16:35
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EGU24-3895
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NH9.3
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Oscar Higuera Roa, Michaela Bachmann, Reinhard Mechler, and Robert Sakic Trogrlic

Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is crucial for the sustainable development of communities, sectors, and regions as the risks and impacts of climate-related disasters continue to increase. Informed decision-making is essential for effective CCA, but building its business case is challenging, especially when decision-makers have to deal with competing priorities on limited budgets. Accordingly, decision-makers seek innovative ways to assess and prioritize adaptation options to make CCA more appealing as an investment.

The "resilience dividend" is a key concept in the literature, referring to the net benefits of investing in resilience, even in the absence of a climate-related disaster. It evaluates the differential impact of CCA measures, considering benefits, co-benefits, costs, and co-harms. Aligned with this concept, the Multiple Resilience Dividend (MRD) approach interprets resilience as the system's capacity to achieve development goals while managing climate risks proactively. It departs from the conventional "bouncing back" understanding and adopts a "bouncing forward" perspective, offering a holistic view of CCA benefits beyond disaster risk management. 

In this session, we present a framework incorporating the MRD approach into the decision-making, aiming to enhance the impact of adaptation decisions and support the case for resilience investment. Developed in three stages, the framework is built upon (i) findings from the literature related to resilience dividends, co-benefits assessment, and adaptation decision-making, (ii) Systems Thinking, and (iii) multi-disciplinary expert feedback.

The MRD framework is adaptable to varying degrees of local capabilities and context-specificities, enabling a systematic and flexible approach to analyzing the wide impact of adaptation measures, including benefits, synergies, adverse effects, and trade-offs. By doing that, it offers decision-makers a nuanced understanding of the effectiveness and performance of adaptation measures in line with local conditions and priorities. 

Under the MRD framework, adaptation responses can deliver multiple benefits in a continuum, explained by three aspects: (1) benefits that unfold at different periods [realization time], (2) intervention benefits cascade across sectors, scales, and space [interconnectivity], and (3) a benefit is valued differently depending on the receptor [receptor-specificity]. The framework considers adaptation responses as interventions that impact various sectors in different domains (e.g., social, economic, cultural, environmental, institutional, political, and technological). For example, an adaptation measure can improve the quality of life, foster energy, food and water security, support ecosystem functioning and health, or have other benefits that extend beyond the targeted system or community. This means that the MRD framework considers adaptation responses as a cross-cutting developmental aspect going beyond the scope of disaster risk management and reframes CCA investments as drivers of progress across the system (e.g., region, city, sector). Thus allowing decision-makers to identify adaptation options that build systemic resilience to climate change more effectively by encouraging cross-sectoral, long-term, and transformational adaptation processes. 

As part of the Pathways2Resilience program, which will be deployed across 100 European regions over the next 4 years, the MRD Framework intends to shift the narrative in the CCA field from problem-centred to opportunities-oriented, supporting decision-makers in planning adaptation strategies with more positive, sustainable, and long-lasting impacts.

How to cite: Higuera Roa, O., Bachmann, M., Mechler, R., and Sakic Trogrlic, R.: The Multiple Resilience Dividends Framework: Rethinking Adaptation Decision-Making as a Transformative Approach for Sustainable Development, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3895, 2024.

16:35–16:45
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EGU24-7358
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NH9.3
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Highlight
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Virtual presentation
Ioannis Kougkoulos, Stella Apostolaki, Simon J. Cook, and Miltiadis D. Lytras

In this study, we assess the impacts of Storm Daniel, which emerged as a low-pressure system on September 4, 2023, and dissipated by September 12. This storm significantly impacted Libya, Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey, Egypt, and Israel, causing widespread flooding. Greece was particularly affected, with 17 deaths and over two billion euros in damages, making it the country's most expensive storm. On September 5, Zagora in Mount Pelion, Greece, recorded an unprecedented 754 mm of rainfall in a single day, leading to extensive flooding in central Greece. A prosecutor's investigation into local authorities' preventive measures followed, aiming to evaluate if further actions could have lessened the storm's effects. This event highlights the need to consider the effects of global warming, which is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, increasing the likelihood of severe precipitation events and flooding risks. Our paper has two objectives: (a) to analyze the response of the existing Greek Flood Risk Governance (FRG) framework to Storm Daniel, and (b) to recommend improvements of the Greek FRG framework using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The initial phase involves analyzing documents related to the flood risk governance cycle, including prevention mapping, emergency response protocols, and national natural disaster insurance frameworks. This analysis uncovers several shortcomings, notably a lack of effective government action in disaster prevention, despite the existence of Flood Risk Management (FRM) plans by the Ministry of the Environment in 2018. Additionally, the Greek natural disaster insurance framework could benefit from strategic improvements. For the second objective, we employ MCDA, specifically Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), to evaluate FRG frameworks from various EU countries, identifying the most suitable model for Greece. MAUT is chosen for its ability to incorporate both quantitative and qualitative criteria effectively, ideal for decision-making involving subjective judgments. The feasibility of conducting sensitivity analysis by altering criteria weights, utility scores, and creating best- and worst-case scenarios makes MAUT well-suited for policy decision-making. We assess criteria such as effectiveness, cost, adaptability, resilience, stakeholder engagement, and environmental impact, considering different flood scenarios, including Mediterranean storms and catastrophic flooding. Next, we intend to integrate Machine Learning (ML) techniques to perform a sensitivity analysis on our Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method for storm disaster management. This approach will enhance our understanding of how different variables impact our decision-making process, thereby improving its accuracy and effectiveness in storm-related scenarios. In summary, this study aims to deliver a thorough and critical evaluation of the Flood Risk Governance (FRG) in Greece. It also seeks to offer well-informed recommendations for enhancing the Greek FRG system, particularly in the context of escalating flood risks driven by climate change. This comprehensive assessment not only scrutinizes the current state of flood risk management but also considers the future challenges posed by environmental changes, aiming to bolster Greece's resilience and adaptive capacity against such natural hazards.

How to cite: Kougkoulos, I., Apostolaki, S., Cook, S. J., and Lytras, M. D.: Flood Risk Governance in Greece in the Aftermath of Storm Daniel, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7358, 2024.

16:45–16:55
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EGU24-18567
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NH9.3
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Thanh Bien Vu, Olabisi S.Obaitor, Lena C. Grobusch, Ulrike Schinkel, Dominic Sett, Michael Hagenlocher, and Matthias Garschagen

Although substantial research has been conducted on the subject of good governance, our comprehension of effective disaster governance and its criteria remains inadequate.

Drawing from a comprehensive literature review, six criteria of good disaster risk governance were selected to assess the effectiveness of disaster risk governance in Thua Thien Hue province, a region prone to natural and climate-induced hazards. These criteria include accountability, responsiveness and flexibility, transparency, collaboration, decentralization and autonomy, information sharing. Insights into these six characteristics were extracted from an analysis of 106 legal documents, utilizing the READ approach (Dalglish et al., 2020). These insights were then categorized based on the four phases of disaster risk management: prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery. To enhance the robustness of the findings from the document-based analysis and delve deeper into the efficacy of policy implementation, the research incorporates perspectives from 606 citizens, collected in a standardized household survey. Through ordinal logistic regressions, the study explores the factors influencing citizens’ perceptions regarding the effectiveness of flood risk governance.

The results obtained through the READ approach reveal distinct emphases in various phases of disaster risk government. In the prevention phase, legal documents underscore the importance of responsiveness and flexibility, achieved through the integration of climate change adaptation scenarios into diverse plans such as socio-economic development and spatial planning. However, these legal documents only addressed the integration of climate change scenarios without including vulnerability scenarios that consider changes in the socio-economic and environmental aspects. During the preparedness phase, emphasis is placed on inter-agency coordination to ensure accountability for financing the disaster prevention fund. In the response phase, critical emphasis is placed on information sharing which helps authorities, and organizations make informed decisions, allocate resources efficiently, and save lives during disasters. Transparency in the allocation of subsidies following disasters takes center stage during the recovery phase.

Findings from the household survey indicate that about 70% of citizens perceive flood risk management as effective. Yet, approximately one-quarter of respondents indicated that they perceive the government's handling of flood risk as either low or not effective at all. Explaining citizens' perceptions of the effectiveness of flood risk governance involves considering five influencing factors: location, age, individual responsibility, income, and past flood experiences. Specifically, individuals with greater self-assigned responsibilities in flood control, older age, those residing outside core urban areas, and households with less exposure to flood impacts over the past decade are more likely to express higher effectiveness. Interestingly, lower-income households perceive government flood management as effective, possibly due to prioritization in response and recovery, as indicated by document analysis.

Although the legal framework for risk management in Thua Thien Hue is relatively comprehensive, supplementing it with additional components currently lacking, such as vulnerability scenarios, would promote the risk management transition from the 'response and recovery' phase to the 'prevention and preparedness' phase, a trend that has been proven to be more effective in disaster risk governance (PU & UNDRR, 2021; Khan et al., 2022; WB 2023).

How to cite: Vu, T. B., S.Obaitor, O., C. Grobusch, L., Schinkel, U., Sett, D., Hagenlocher, M., and Garschagen, M.: Assessing disaster risk governance effectiveness: a document-based analysis using the READ approach in Thua Thien Hue province, Central Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18567, 2024.

16:55–17:05
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EGU24-20204
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NH9.3
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Nivedita Sairam, Domenica Michelle Jaramillo Sanchez, and Heidi Kreibich

Owing to changing climate and growing urban cities, the frequency and intensity of extreme flood events are rising. Often, the impacts of flooding on the economic front is the focus of science and policy. On the other hand, floods adversely affect the health and well-being of exposed populations which are difficult to quantify through conventional risk assessment frameworks.

There is currently a lack of a comprehensive understanding of the Flood–Human-health system. In specific, understanding and quantification of the drivers and feedback-effects leading to health-related consequences is crucial for developing inclusive flood risk management strategies.

Focusing on the 2021 flooding in Germany, we aim to identify and elucidate the drivers and processes that led to health consequences with a focus on aspects of flood risk management – mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Our study employs data-driven approaches, utilizing a substantial sample of empirical household surveys on flood characteristics, consequences and risk management aspects. The presentation of key findings will shed light on the pathways leading to consequences on human health, encompassing elements of risk management

How to cite: Sairam, N., Jaramillo Sanchez, D. M., and Kreibich, H.: Flood Risk Management and Health Consequences: a case-study of the 2021 floods in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20204, 2024.

17:05–17:15
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EGU24-9458
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NH9.3
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Mia Wannewitz, Matthias Garschagen, and Jan Petzold

In the realm of adaptation to climate change, coastal cities deserve special attention as they are faced with an abundance of climate impacts while also being engines of economic development, trade, innovation and culture with, in theory, high adaptation potential. While there is eclectic evidence for urban adaptation, we are lacking a global overview of the extent to which coastal cities are on track to prepare for and adapt to climate risks. Building on and complementing highly relevant findings from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI), this paper presents findings from a global review of empirical evidence for adaptation in coastal cities. We systematically analysed adaptation actions reported in the scientific literature for 199 coastal cities across the globe with the aim to provide the first stocktake of empirical evidence of adaptation in coastal cities. To do so, the paper addresses four key questions: (1) How is evidence for coastal urban adaptation spread across the globe? (2) Which hazards and trends of exposure and vulnerability are reported? (3) Which responses are reported and which actors are involved in their implementation? And (4) What is the speed, scope, depth and evidence of risk reduction due to adaptation? Using the World Bank’s income groups and city sizes as cross-cutting lines of analysis, our findings show that there is comparatively little published knowledge on coastal urban adaptation in low and middle income economies.  Reported adaptation measures are predominantly designed based on past and current, rather than future, patterns in hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. The results unravel that city governments, particularly in high-income countries, are more likely to be reported as implementers of institutional and infrastructural responses, while coastal cities in lower-middle income countries are often reported to rely on households to implement behavioral adaptation. Finally, the assessed evidence mostly presents coastal urban adaptation that is rather slow, of narrow scope, and not transformative. In sum, the paper provides a nuanced picture of the current state of adaptation in coastal cities. It highlights fields of progress as well as key gaps to be tackled in the future.

How to cite: Wannewitz, M., Garschagen, M., and Petzold, J.: Progress and gaps in climate change adaptation in coastal cities across the globe, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9458, 2024.

17:15–17:25
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EGU24-18696
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NH9.3
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Alexandre Pereira Santos, Olabisi Obaitor, Jan Petzold, Mia Wannewitz, Veronika Zwiglmaier, Gusti Ayu Ketut Surtiari, Ravinder Dhiman, and Matthias Garschagen

Reducing future climate vulnerability at the local level depends on consistent policies and setting clear roles and responsibilities. Unfortunately, these are often missing in developing countries, given that different agencies and actor groups develop local adaptation and urbanisation policies with little streamlining and integration. More fundamentally, research combining local adaptation and urbanisation is rare, especially that which provides future-oriented, long-term pathways. This policy and research gap clouds decision-making, fuels potential maladaptation, and saps policy effectiveness, especially in the highly vulnerable coastal Southeast-Asian cities. To shed light on this problem, this research asks: How do three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) shape the future drivers of urbanisation for Mumbai, Manila and Jakarta? We approach this question by combining mixed qualitative narratives and quantitative estimates of urbanisation drivers from the regional SSPs developed by Petzold and colleagues (in press). Petzold et al. downscaled three SSPs (matching SSP 1, 2, and 3) to the metropolitan areas of Mumbai and Jakarta in a participatory scenario approach that yielded narratives on themes like population, labour, health, and migration. We applied this method to Manila and extracted the significant factors driving urbanisation from the three regions, forging integrated urbanisation and adaptation pathways. The results include region-specific qualitative narratives of future development and quantitative estimates of the urbanisation drivers with their associated levels of uncertainty. We present these results across the themes of population growth, urban structure types at the metropolitan cores, inner and outer peripheries, urban planning, infrastructure, informality, and inequality, among others. Stakeholder engagement supported validating the research assumptions and narratives and developing the estimates through a hierarchical analytical process. This mixed methods approach sheds light on the relationship between urban development and risks in highly urbanised and at-risk cities in Southeast Asia, considering the social drivers of vulnerability and the physical drivers of exposure. Its limitations include data and research scarcity, despite which it bridges the gap between urbanisation and adaptation policy and research. It also provides a globally nested approach to future development built on transdisciplinary research and validated with local knowledge. It presents methods suitable to other cities in the region, as well as insights for the future development and risk assessment of Mumbai, Manila, and Jakarta. Future work includes checking the narratives against ongoing processes and future urban growth simulations to provide critical insight for local decision-makers into their adaptation agendas.

How to cite: Pereira Santos, A., Obaitor, O., Petzold, J., Wannewitz, M., Zwiglmaier, V., Ketut Surtiari, G. A., Dhiman, R., and Garschagen, M.: The Future of Urban Climate Vulnerability in Southeast Asia: Linking downscaled shared socioeconomic pathways to the drivers of urbanisation in Mumbai, Manila and Jakarta, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18696, 2024.

17:25–17:35
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EGU24-7903
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NH9.3
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Han Kyul Heo, Youngjin Cho, Taehwan Hyeon, Yumi Song, and Ho gul Kim

The increased prevalence and intensity of flooding, exacerbated by climate change, pose significant risks to the structural integrity of buildings. A pertinent example of this was the 2022 flooding of Gangnam Station in South Korea, resulting in loss of life and amplifying concerns over flood-related damages. It is imperative to proactively assess the flood vulnerability of individual buildings to enhance public safety. This susceptibility is influenced by the building's unique characteristics and geographical location, necessitating their incorporation into flood mitigation strategies. This study endeavors to: (1) ascertain the flood risk of individual building units, and (2) suggest a management strategy to augment the flood resilience of buildings.

Our analysis encompassed 27,438 instances of flood damage in Seoul from 2016 to 2022, correlating this data with detailed building registry information. We categorized buildings into two risk groups—low and high—based on a damage threshold of 3 million won. Employing a range of variables, our study developed a flood risk analysis model utilizing the TabNet classifier, achieving an impressive predictive accuracy of 88%. Key factors in assessing flood risk included the building's function, structural design, height, and floor area ratio, with smaller buildings identified as particularly vulnerable.

The research revealed that flood hazard maps and flood risk maps display differing patterns. In certain areas, high flood probability coincides with low potential damage. This observation has two key implications: First, individuals in high flood probability but low damage areas might be exempt from stringent governmental oversight. Second, there are regions with low flood likelihood outside of government regulation that could still incur significant damage in the event of a flood.

Leveraging the power of machine learning and deep learning, increasingly applied across various fields, this study integrates building attribute data with a plethora of spatial and socio-environmental factors. This integration has facilitated the creation of a comprehensive list of buildings particularly prone to flooding, utilizing public datasets and advanced deep learning techniques. Most identified high-risk buildings are small-scale structures, already under the purview of mandatory inspections by several legislations including the Building Management Act and others related to safety and fire protection. However, buildings classified as safety-vulnerable are not subject to regular inspections under current laws. Given the anticipated increase in flood events due to climate change, it is crucial to establish safety management standards tailored to specific building characteristics to effectively reduce flood-related damages.

How to cite: Heo, H. K., Cho, Y., Hyeon, T., Song, Y., and Kim, H. G.: Strategizing Building Resilience: A Big Data Driven Approach to Flood Risk Assessment and Management, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7903, 2024.

17:35–17:45
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EGU24-15967
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NH9.3
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On-site presentation
Benjamin Dewals, Joris Hardy, Davide Mastricci, Vincent Schmitz, Alexis Melitsiotis, Michel Pirotton, Sébastien Erpicum, and Pierre Archambeau

Early warning is critical to enhance the resilience of communities and infrastructures towards a wide range of natural and human-caused hazards. As a part of a broader initiative aiming at improving the resilience of waterways to multi-hazards risk (earthquake, fog, wind, low flow …), we present here components of an operational hazard assessment tool focusing on the impact of dike breaching. The system is developed and showcased on a study site located in Belgium, involving major waterways such as a stretch of river Meuse, a parallel navigation channel and tributaries.

The modelling strategy builds on three steps. Step one is a machine-learning-based hydrological model which provides quick estimates of flow rate at the upstream ends of the domain. The model was trained based on observed flow rates and precipitation data at rain gauges distributed across the catchments.

Step 2 consists in a detailed hydrodynamic modelling reproducing the flow in the navigation channels and simulating breach development, flow through the breach, as well as in the floodplains. This approach is accurate and detailed; but too slow for rea-time prediction, i.e., operational use. Therefore, Step 3 consists in combining a quick and efficient simplified dike breach model to estimate breach hydrograph and produce inundation maps in the floodplains by spatial interpolation in a collection of pre-computed results of the detailed hydrodynamic model (Step 2).

The model structure will be detailed, and results will be presented and discussed.

This research is co-funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe Innovation Actions under grant agreement No. 101069941 (PLOTO project: https://ploto-project.eu/). 

How to cite: Dewals, B., Hardy, J., Mastricci, D., Schmitz, V., Melitsiotis, A., Pirotton, M., Erpicum, S., and Archambeau, P.: An operational framework for improving the resilience of inland waterways and floodplains to the impacts of flood-induced dike breach hazard, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15967, 2024.

17:45–17:55
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EGU24-14810
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NH9.3
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich

Severe storm events are one of Central Europe's most damaging natural hazards, thereby under particular focus on disaster risk management. One key element for risk reduction is vulnerability. Risk assessments often assume vulnerability as constant, leading to an overestimation of risk in the future. This work aims to quantify the temporal dynamics of vulnerability to assess future risks more precisely. An essential factor for the dynamics of vulnerability is the hazard itself. Extreme events destroy the most vulnerable elements, which are rebuilt or repaired in a less vulnerable way. Therefore, the intensity of the previous events and the resulting damage is a decisive factor in reducing vulnerability. A second important factor is the period between events. If the next event occurs during the reconstruction phase, vulnerability is higher than when the reconstruction phase is completed.

We analyze the impact of previous storm events on the vulnerability of residential buildings. For this purpose, generalized additive models are implemented to estimate vulnerability curves, which are set as a function of the intensity of the previous event and the duration between the events. The damage is extracted from a 23-year-long data set of the daily storm and hail damages for insured residential buildings in Germany on the county level provided by the German Insurance Association, and the hazard component is described by the daily maximum wind load calculated from the ERA5 reanalysis. The results show a negative relationship between the previous event's intensity and the current event's damage. The duration between two events shows a significant reduction of the damage for events occurring one or more winter seasons ago compared to events occurring within the same season. On a daily scale, the first seven days are especially crucial for vulnerability reduction.

How to cite: Trojand, A., Rust, H., and Ulbrich, U.: Temporal dynamic vulnerability - Impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14810, 2024.

Posters on site: Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X4

The posters scheduled for on-site presentation are only visible in the poster hall in Vienna. If authors uploaded their presentation files, these files are linked from the abstracts below, but only on the day of the poster session.
Display time: Wed, 17 Apr 08:30–Wed, 17 Apr 12:30
Chairpersons: Jung Hee Hyun, Andrea Reimuth
X4.69
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EGU24-18999
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NH9.3
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Lisa Köhler and Sungju Han

The last 2023 IPCC report draws attention to the change in the occurrence and frequency of weather extremes and natural hazards (Lee et al., 2023). It emphasizes the urgent need for climate change mitigation and adaptation to counteract the risks to life, nature, values, and societies. A recent study by Köhler et al. (2023) provides insight into the fact that frequent flood experiences increase the willingness to undertake protective actions at the individual level but simultaneously lead to decreased self-reported resilience. Still, there is a gap in understanding why frequent flood experiences influence protective motivation and what other factors play a role. Building upon this, this study explores the role of frequent experience in protective motivation and why more experienced people are more likely to adapt. Also, we introduce a measure for control experience, the individual's perceived efficacy in managing past flood situations, to understand the role of perceived resistance in affecting protective motivation.

To meet this aim, we apply Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) from the field of psychology to understand how frequent flood events and control experiences influence coping and threat appraisal, two factors that have been shown to impact people's motivation to change behavior. Structural equation Modeling is used to detect processes and interactions between several variables in one model. The data comes from a survey in Saxony (Germany) in 2020.

We find that both the frequency of experienced floods and the control experience increase threat appraisal but decrease coping appraisal. Threat appraisal could, therefore, be a channel through which flood experience positively influences protective motivation. The negative influences of flood experience on coping appraisal could limit this positive impact, at least to some extent. Our findings carry profound implications in understanding better the protective behavior of people who have undergone multiple flood events. We deliver crucial insights into how the frequency of experienced floods, perceived efficacy in managing past flood events, and individual protective behavior are related.

 

Citations:

Lee, H., Calvin, K., Dasgupta, D., Krinner, G., Mukherji, A., Thorne, P., ... & Park, Y. (2023). IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and    III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing  Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

Köhler, L., Masson, T., Köhler, S., & Kuhlicke, C. (2023). Better prepared but less resilient : the paradoxical impact of frequent flood experience on adaptive behavior and resilience. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23(8), 2787–2806.

How to cite: Köhler, L. and Han, S.: The leverage effect of experience: how flood frequency and perceived loss of control influence individual protective motivation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18999, 2024.

X4.70
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EGU24-14544
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NH9.3
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ECS
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Lena C. Grobusch, Bethany M. Liss, and Matthias Garschagen

Metro Manila is the Philippines’ largest metropolitan region. It is highly urbanized, densely populated, and situated on the coast where it is highly exposed to natural disasters and rising sea levels. Therefore, a significant question for Metro Manila concerns how to adapt to such current and future climate hazards. To address this urgent need to adapt to climate change while simultaneously tackling pronounced urban and sustainable development challenges, a multitude of policy and planning documents have been formulated within the Philippines across varying scales. These documents represent a suitable means of analyzing the legal-institutional dimension of adaptation governance in Metro Manila. One pressing question in the field of adaptation governance, which remains understudied, is who is actually responsible for adaptation. Hence, this research aims to answer how, in the documents, roles and responsibilities for adaptation are divided amongst the different actors who are parties to the ‘social contract’ on adaptation. The research questions are as follows: 1) What is the discourse on roles and responsibilities in the policy and planning documents? 2) Which actors are described as being responsible for implementing adaptation strategies, and who should benefit from these actions? 3) Are these actors’ roles and responsibilities clearly defined in the documents, and which types of responsibilities are defined? A qualitative methodology was utilized to answer these questions. First, existing literature was reviewed to synthesize a framework for assessing different types of roles and responsibilities (such as financial, legal, and moral) as well as evaluation criteria (such as accountability, responsiveness, and transparency). Then, the framework was applied to 39 policy and planning documents from the national to the local level by means of a qualitative content analysis in MAXQDA. The findings show that responsibilities are more commonly referred to than roles, and that clearly defined responsibilities throughout the adaptation policy cycle are increasingly considered to be an important aspect for effective implementation. The documents vary in the extent to which they clearly define responsibilities for different actors, but the roles and responsibilities of governmental actors are defined most clearly. However, the adaptation stakeholder landscape is quite complex and stretches beyond governmental actors to incorporate academia, citizens, civil society and non-governmental organizations, international organizations and foreign actors, future generations, and the private sector. The latter is often called upon to aid the government in fulfilling financial responsibilities and infrastructure construction. Lastly, the analysis shows that cooperative and participatory processes, as mechanisms for influencing social contracts for adaptation, are playing progressively important roles. Future research will thus conduct interviews to explore how, in collaborative efforts and participatory processes, questions around social acceptability and political responsibilities are discussed and where the disparities lie between the legal-institutional responsibilities captured in the documents, and practiced and expected responsibilities. This is key for making some of the implicit developments more explicit in the timely discussion about who is responsible for doing what in adaptation, and which actors benefit or lose out.

How to cite: Grobusch, L. C., Liss, B. M., and Garschagen, M.: Who is responsible for addressing climate risks in coastal cities? Insights from a policy document analysis of Metro Manila, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14544, 2024.

X4.71
|
EGU24-10224
|
NH9.3
|
ECS
Shakti Raj Shrestha

In disaster science, the discussions predominantly stem from the various notions of risk and associated concepts. While understanding risk is an undeniable necessity to comprehend disasters, it is inadequate. This is because, risk only provides an understanding of what is, but it doesn’t describe what could be done and what should be done. As such, there are additional parameters that needs to be included to fully capture the complexities of disaster risk reduction. To this end, it is argued that disasters need to be framed through additional lens of law and ethics that interact with the concepts of risk. A framework, termed Ethics for 4Rs (E4Rs) where 4Rs represent the 4 phases of disaster cycle (reduction, readiness, response, and recovery), is proposed where the three main concepts: risk, ethics, and law interact continuously. Additionally, this framework emphasizes the need to explicitly express the importance of our values, i.e., ethics as disasters are fraught with difficult decisions. This theoretical framework was derived based on understanding gained through studies on the use of post-earthquake cordons as a response and recovery strategy following major disasters in three countries: Aotearoa New Zealand (Christchurch earthquake 2011), Italy (L’Aquila earthquake 2009), and Nepal (Gorkha earthquake 2015). For the case studies, a qualitative research methodology was used for data collection, where 44 experts from varying backgrounds such as politicians, emergency managers, city council members, police, community leaders among others were interviewed. The development of this framework has also been supported through review of ethical concepts from health sciences, in particular public health sciences. This is because discussions on ethics in relation to disasters are limited in literature where as they have been developed more thoroughly in public health sciences. Although, there are differences in disasters due to natural hazards and public health events such as a pandemic, the complexity, urgency, scale and the need to make difficult decisions remain the same and are comparable. Finally, it is suggested that this framework will bring about discussion on disasters and ethics where a significant gap remains in the current disaster science discourse.

How to cite: Shrestha, S. R.: Risk, Ethics, and Law: A framework (E4Rs) to understand disasters, learned through response to earthquake disasters in Aotearoa New Zealand, Italy, and Nepal. , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10224, 2024.

X4.72
|
EGU24-4099
|
NH9.3
|
ECS
Leon Scheiber, Vera Zühlsdorff, Ngo Than Son, Nong Huu Duong, Nguyen Hong Quan, Matthias Garschagen, and Andrea Reimuth

Promoting public access to Urban Green Spaces is a central objective in sustainable city planning. Urban Green Spaces can play a vital role in enhancing various aspects of public life, including human recreation, local climate regulation and rainwater infiltration. However, in most metropolitan areas, especially in developing countries and emerging economies, Urban Green Spaces face competition with strong economic interests leading to their deterioration over the last decades. Our study critically examines this assumption for two Vietnamese delta cities, namely Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. In particular, we use multi-spectral satellite imagery from the Sentinel-2 mission to create seasonal maps of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in order to estimate the local proportion of densely vegetated areas. By blending these maps with population data from the National Census of 2019, we determine the spatial distribution of Urban Green Spaces per capita in both cities and interpret these findings against the background of recent spatial planning efforts. Spanning seven dry seasons in total (Dec 2016 – Jan 2023), the satellite data furthermore allow us to compare the temporal development of Urban Green Spaces and tentatively extrapolate these trends into the near future. Our preliminary results suggest that districts with particularly high percentages of Urban Green Spaces in Hanoi generally encompass the historic city core, while the greenest districts of HCMC are located in the newly established city-within-city Thu Duc east of the Saigon River. Moreover, the Urban Green Space per capita in Hanoi is nearly twice as high as in Ho Chi Minh City amounting to 11.6 and 6.8 square meters, respectively. Judging from the NDVI time series, these figures seem relatively stable with variations in the order of 1 square kilometre per year. Yet, ongoing urbanization trends will put stress on both the proportion of Urban Green Spaces and the number of inhabitants benefitting. Even though the stability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index is subjected to atmospheric and climatic boundary conditions, we can report that measurement-inherent variations in our study only accounted for standard deviations below 0.1 at selected locations with constant land cover. Consequently, the applied methodology is considered a valid instrument for documenting spatial distributions and temporal developments in order to support and advocate the advantages of Urban Green Spaces in future spatial planning.

How to cite: Scheiber, L., Zühlsdorff, V., Son, N. T., Duong, N. H., Quan, N. H., Garschagen, M., and Reimuth, A.: Comparing the distribution and development of Urban Green Spaces in the two Vietnamese delta cities Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4099, 2024.

X4.73
|
EGU24-7734
|
NH9.3
|
ECS
Assessment of extreme drought using the standardized water cycle index in humid regions under climatic change
(withdrawn)
Tian Wang, Xinjun Tu, and Yuming Wang
X4.74
|
EGU24-16498
|
NH9.3
Jiachang Tu, Andrea Reimuth, and Matthias Garschagen

There is rising discussion focused on the ways in which urban growth and expansion, often into flood-prone areas, takes effect on the exposure and vulnerability profiles of the respective households. In order to drive city-wide and regional analysis, remotely sensed urban structure types are increasingly being used as a proxy for socio-economic characteristics. However, whether and how urban structure types in fact match the nuanced realities of socio-economic exposure and vulnerability to floods remains largely unclear. Resolving this question is of particular relevance for improving flood risk assessments in rapidly growing coastal cities with a high hazard exposure. We therefore use Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam as a case study to develop a detailed composite indicator index for measuring the exposure and vulnerability at household level in flood-affected parts of the city, based on household survey data. We then correlate this index to urban structure types to see whether morphology characteristics map against socio-economic vulnerability and exposure profiles. In order to allow for an assessment of temporal trends, data from a repeated survey (two years after the first) is used to examine dynamics in exposure, vulnerability and urban development.

Our research yields a number of key results (Tu et al., forthcoming): First, household vulnerability is not necessarily correlated to flood exposure. Second, the vulnerability and flood exposure levels of households are differ along an urban, peri-urban and rural gradient. Third, the exposure and vulnerability profiles only partly correlate with the urban structure types, but a certain mapping can be done with a reasonable uncertainty bandwidth in order to drive future modeling forward. These findings not only shed light onto spatial vulnerability patterns in HCMC but also on methodological advances in the field of city-wide risk and adaptation modeling. These lessons and their transferability to other coastal cities with similar adaptation pressures but different morphology and vulnerability profiling will be discussed.

How to cite: Tu, J., Reimuth, A., and Garschagen, M.: Exploring the relationship between urban morphology types and household-level flood vulnerability profiles in Ho Chi Minh City, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16498, 2024.

X4.75
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EGU24-2259
|
NH9.3
|
ECS
Jiaxuan Zheng and Guoru Huang

Despite traditional measures to prevent disasters, climate change and urbanization increase flood risk. Thus, flood resilience has attracted increased global concern. Understanding the commonalities and differences between flood resilience and risk is arguably important for flood risk reduction. However, these factors have been seldom reported in previous studies, and discussions on the role of flood resilience in flood risk analysis, assessment, and management are lacking. In this study, the association between flood resilience and risk is discussed using a case study in the Pearl River Delta. Flood resilience is quantified using a pressure-state-response (PSR) model, while flood risk is assessed based on the hazard-vulnerability framework and the extension catastrophe progression method. The implications of considering flood resilience in flood risk analysis, assessment, and management are proposed. The results suggest that the overall flood resilience (risk) in the study area is greater (lower) than that in the highly urbanized areas, and areas with low (high) flood resilience (risk) are mainly concentrated within the highly urbanized areas. Indices extracted from human society and highly related to human activities have the same attributes in both frameworks, while indices associated with climate and geography contribute to the two con- cepts differently. Flood resilience supplements the concept of flood risk, and can be incorporated into risk assessment as an index. Moreover, pre-disruption (post-disaster) measures should follow flood risk (resilience) assessment, and strategies that foster flood resilience should be included in flood risk management. This study provides references for flood resilience improvement and risk mitigation.

How to cite: Zheng, J. and Huang, G.: Towards flood risk reduction: Commonalities and differences between urban flood resilience and risk based on a case study in the Pearl River Delta, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2259, 2024.

X4.76
|
EGU24-3421
|
NH9.3
|
ECS
Rebuilding Lives on Lava: The Dynamic Forces Shaping Resettlement in Post-Eruption Goma 
(withdrawn)
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi and Lara Mani
X4.77
|
EGU24-6568
|
NH9.3
|
ECS
Asimina Voskaki, Thomas Budd, and Keith Mason

Rising sea levels and changes in the frequency and intensity of storms can have physical, operational and business implications for coastal airports worldwide. Employing appropriate risk reduction measures is essential, and airports demonstrating higher adaptive capacity are generally expected to be better equipped to respond and recover quickly after a disruptive event. While a growing body of research investigates the impact of rising sea levels on coastal infrastructure systems, limited studies discuss how coastal airports can measure their adaptive performance considering the main climate extremes occurring in the coastal zone. This study presents an approach to measure coastal airports' adaptability to hazards such as rising sea levels, extreme precipitation, and storminess. The developed framework uses indicators identified in adaptation and risk assessment literature to reflect prevention, response and institutional actions to reduce climate risk. By examining the key challenges coastal airports face and best-applied practices to respond, this contribution provides insights into the drivers for action, the efficiency of existing practices to address climate challenges and qualities that coastal airports need to demonstrate to strengthen their capacity and shift towards a more informed risk management culture. 

How to cite: Voskaki, A., Budd, T., and Mason, K.: Adapting coastal airports to climate change challenges, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6568, 2024.

X4.78
|
EGU24-21664
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NH9.3
|
ECS
Charlotta Mirbach, Alexandre Pereira Santos, Matthias Garschagen, Volker Hochschild, and Gebhard Warth

Linking socio-economic and spatial structural data is a key research gap in the assessment of urban climate risk. Urban populations are increasingly exposed to adverse effects of climate change, particularly in coastal urban areas in the Global South, where information is scarce. Researchers often rely on survey results, which deliver highly detailed micro-level point data but those are costly and lack spatial coverage. Conversely, Earth observation
(EO) data offers greater spatial coverage but provides limited insights into socio-economic factors. Hence, there is a gap in integrating urban morphology data derived from EO and micro-scale survey data. We aim to address this gap by linking socio-economic and morphological data using a novel machine learning-based approach and testing whether and to what extent urban structure types (UST) can function as spatial predictors for
socio-economic profiles.
To do so, we implement a two-stage process based on k-means and random forest (RF) algorithms in two case studies. First, we employ a k-means clustering algorithm to delineate socio-economic profiles based on household survey variables relating to education, household size and composition, and asset ownership. We then used an RF classification algorithm that used USTs as predictors to extend the survey socio-economic profiles into
morphologically similar areas in two case study cities: Mumbai (India) and Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam). In Mumbai, current socio-economic data is severely outdated (i.e., the last census was in 2011), while in Ho Chi Minh City it is only available in coarse spatial units (i.e., at the commune level). These conditions hinder research on assessing flooding vulnerability, as population growth and the mismatch between administrative units and flood hotspots introduce severe bias and uncertainty in the available data. To overcome this situation, we implemented household surveys (n=1240 and 751, respectively) in flood hotspots that cover a variety of urban structure types (e.g., compact low-rise, open mid-rise, or lightweight low-rise).
In our study, morphological information functions as a proxy for socio-economic profiles, thus providing a cost-effective and spatially explicit novel approach to assessing social vulnerability in data-scarce conditions. By starting from the household-level survey data, we avoid the most critical problems from reductionist approaches (e.g., social determinism) and recognize the limitations of data triangulation. To this end, we measure the uncertainty of the association in each step and validate the assumptions and results with local stakeholders. Our novel approach aims to use the available EO data to improve the identification of high-vulnerability areas. Albeit experimental, the spatially explicit identification provided in
this study provides crucial insights for targeted climate adaptation policy and research. By studying two rapidly evolving coastal cities, we provide a comprehensive and reproducible method to assess the challenges urban populations face under climate change.

How to cite: Mirbach, C., Pereira Santos, A., Garschagen, M., Hochschild, V., and Warth, G.: Extracting socioeconomic information with the help of urban structure types indata-scarce environments, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21664, 2024.

X4.79
|
EGU24-8172
|
NH9.3
Jan Petzold, Matthias Garschagen, Ravinder Dhiman, Deepal Doshi, Alexandre Pereira Santos, and Devanathan Parthasarathy

Populations in many coastal urban areas are increasingly exposed to climate-related hazards, such as rising sea levels, increasing intensities and frequencies of tropical cyclones, and extreme weather events. At the same time, the number of people in coastal cities is growing and, especially in the Global South, these cities are characterised by rapid and often unplanned urbanisation and a high degree of social inequality. Hence, coastal cities are also hotspots of social vulnerability. That coastal cities are climate risk hotspots has been widely acknowledged, and adaptation is happening, especially in terms of planning and reactive responses. However, the current adaptation progress lacks implementation, evidence of effective risk reduction, and long-term pathway perspectives. A global future-oriented approach for a better understanding of the socioeconomic developments shaping challenges to adaptation is the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework. Our research uses the case study of Mumbai, one of the world’s most vulnerable cities, to apply a participatory scenario approach, downscaling the SSP narratives to the local level with bottom-up input from diverse local stakeholder groups. Our specific research question is: How do future socioeconomic urban developments affect Mumbai’s social vulnerability and challenges for adaptation? Our results provide three distinct scenario narratives for Mumbai’s socioeconomic development until 2050, including “Wider sustainability transitions”, “Partial exploitation of existing potential and current trends”, and “Increasing barriers through inequality and fragmentation”. The scenario narratives stress the relevance of addressing social inequality in urban change and development processes across different sectors, including labour, housing, transport, and health. A further prominent cross-cutting aspect resulting from the co-development of the scenario narratives with local stakeholders deals with streamlining urban planning across different governance scales (i.e., local and regional) and sectors (e.g., transportation and spatial planning). The SSP downscaling approach also sheds light on several conceptual and methodological challenges. For example, data availability guiding the drafting of plausible scenario assumptions varies significantly across different elements of the scenario narratives. Moreover, the framework is limited in considering local development pathways switching from one scenario track to another and the effects of unforeseen transformations or shocks. In conclusion, our study proves the value of developing globally nested regional scenarios to understand challenges for adaptation, consistent with research on global socioeconomic developments, and the importance of a transdisciplinary approach to guarantee plausibility, consistency and relevance for local contexts. The results of our study are relevant for a holistic understanding of future climate risk and challenges and opportunities for adaptation planning at the local scale. 

How to cite: Petzold, J., Garschagen, M., Dhiman, R., Doshi, D., Pereira Santos, A., and Parthasarathy, D.: Identifying future challenges for adaptation to climate change through insights from participatory scenario-downscaling in Mumbai, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8172, 2024.

X4.80
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EGU24-1179
|
NH9.3
|
ECS
|
Highlight
Olasunkanmi Okunola and Saskia Werners

The recent increase in the frequency of extreme events worldwide highlights the urgent need for comprehensive and coordinated efforts to achieve sustainable recovery and resilience. However, the recovery process following such events has often been prolonged and uneven, and it is frequently overlooked in global disaster management policies. This study aims to address this gap by providing a comprehensive assessment of disaster recovery pathways after extreme flood events, by developing a multidimensional framework.

The research questions guiding this study are: What are the key elements of disaster recovery? What factors act as barriers or facilitators to recovery pathways after disasters? How do these factors contribute to building back better? To answer these questions, the study combines conceptual and empirical insights, including a literature review and an assessment of recovery pathways from recent extreme flood events in Germany and Nigeria.

A multi-methods approach was utilized, encompassing in-depth interviews with representatives from government, NGOs, the private sector, community members, and disaster recovery experts. A total of thirty-eight in-depth interviews were conducted with stakeholders from both countries. Additionally, grey literature and policy documents were analyzed. Qualitative content analysis was employed to analyze the data derived from the in-depth interviews and policy documents.

The findings highlight the significant role of relief organizations in driving recovery efforts, with a particular focus on humanitarian aspects. Moreover, sustainable changes have been observed, such as the implementation of communal heating systems and the use of sustainable materials in building reconstruction. Religious organizations have played a crucial role in providing social and psychological support during the recovery process.

Despite these positive developments, the study underscores a lack of concerted efforts to truly "build back better" during the recovery process, primarily due to political, financial, and institutional constraints. This observation holds across different cases, including the Ahr and Erftstadt in Germany and Lagos in Nigeria. These themes have been explored within the broader scope of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 - 2030.

How to cite: Okunola, O. and Werners, S.: A Multi-dimensional Framework for Assessing Disaster Recovery Pathways: Lessons and Experiences from Germany and Nigeria , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1179, 2024.

X4.81
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EGU24-14632
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NH9.3
|
ECS
|
Highlight
Bethany M. Liss, Lena C. Grobusch, and Matthias Garschagen

As recent IPCC reports have highlighted, urban areas are now home to most of the world’s population. The majority of such urban growth continues to occur in less developed regions and is expected to persist, specifically in Asia. Due to extensive anthropogenic change along coastal zones, as well as their inherent exposure to natural hazards such as sea level rise, erosion, and tropical storms, coastal cities are especially at risk to the adverse impacts of climate change. Having consistently ranked as one of the countries most at risk to the negative impacts of anthropogenic climate change, the Philippines has undertaken significant efforts to integrate climate change adaptation into various policies and planning documents. This research reflects on the specific practice of mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA), as well as disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures, into local land use planning in Metro Manila as a means of reducing the region's present and future risk. Effective land use planning represents a proactive and economical approach to managing both current and future climate change related risks, especially when taking into consideration the significant expenses necessary to remedy issues caused by poorly or unplanned development, which often most negatively impacts a community’s most vulnerable members. Specifically, the aim of this research is to take stock of what progress has been made toward mainstreaming climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies into local land use planning in Metro Manila and to understand how this impacts those who are most vulnerable to climate change. The analysis also strives to comprehend how the knowledge gained from the Metro Manila case study can be transferred to other cities in Southeast Asia facing similar challenges. Methodologically, the software MAXQDA was utilized to conduct a qualitative data analysis of 39 policy and planning documents, ranging from the national to the local level. This analysis demonstrates that policy and planning documents at all levels integrate future-oriented climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies to a certain extent. However, despite the consistent and comprehensive integration of such strategies into documents across scales, numerous documents cite significant challenges in implementing CCA and DRR strategies, especially at the local level. Poor and/or inconsistent coordination between government offices, in addition to other stakeholders, limited or poorly prioritized and difficult-to-access financing, as well as a lack of continuity in personnel due to political election cycles, particularly at the local level, were frequently referenced as representing significant barriers to proper implementation of CCA and DRR strategies. Future research will be conducted in the form of expert interviews, which will help to better understand the current issues regarding the local implementation of these strategies and in what ways these can be improved or altogether remedied.

How to cite: Liss, B. M., Grobusch, L. C., and Garschagen, M.: Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into local land use planning in Metro Manila: lessons learned and potential for knowledge transfer, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14632, 2024.

X4.82
|
EGU24-13097
|
NH9.3
|
ECS
|
Xinmeng Shan, Jeroen C.J.H Aerts, Jun Wang, Jiahong Wen, Jie Yin, Yuhan Yang, Fengyue Qiu, and Paolo Scussolini

Decisions on coastal cities flood adaptation are complicated by deep uncertainty about sea level rise, subsidence and socioeconomic trends, increasing the chance of under- or over-investment. Frameworks have been proposed to plan coastal adaptation in urban settings. In this study, we expand those frameworks to include elements critical to rational decision-making in coastal cities under deep uncertainty. Our framework, trained on the city of Shanghai, includes compound flood modeling, flood risk analysis, design and quantitative simulation of adaptation strategies, cost-benefit analysis, trade-off analysis and formulation of dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP). We include land subsidence in modeling flood scenarios; we compute a diverse set of flood impacts on multiple sectors; we evaluate several techniques of cost-benefit analysis; and we include multiple adaptive strategies against compound flooding (i.e., pluvial, fluvial, coastal). We show that the hard adaptation strategies (e.g., storm-surge barriers and storage tank) can successfully reduce future increase in risk generated by sea level rise, land subsidence and socioeconomic development, by 58%~94%. In contrast, soft adaptation only generate considerable benefits when integrated with hard adaptation into hybrid strategies. A hybrid strategy that combines storm-surge barrier and wetland creation most effectively reduces flood damages and casualties, and yields promising co-benefits. We formulate DAPP for robust and flexible decision-making over time for the coming decades, which open up the decision-making space and help overcome policy paralysis due to deep uncertainty.

How to cite: Shan, X., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Wang, J., Wen, J., Yin, J., Yang, Y., Qiu, F., and Scussolini, P.: Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Flood Adaptation in Shanghai under Deep Uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13097, 2024.

Posters virtual: Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vHall X4

The posters scheduled for virtual presentation are visible in Gather.Town. Attendees are asked to meet the authors during the scheduled attendance time for live video chats. If authors uploaded their presentation files, these files are also linked from the abstracts below, but only on the day of the poster session. The button to access Gather.Town appears just before the time block starts. Onsite attendees can also visit the virtual poster sessions at the PICO spot in the corresponding on-site poster hall (e.g. virtual posters of vHall X4 are visible at PICO spot 4).
Display time: Wed, 17 Apr 08:30–Wed, 17 Apr 18:00
Chairpersons: Nithila Devi Nallasamy, Jung Hee Hyun
vX4.7
|
EGU24-15338
|
NH9.3
|
ECS
|
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Hendrik Janssen, Holger Hoppe, and Jörn Birkmann

Spatial development, particularly the rapid expansion of urban areas, is increasing disaster risk in city-regions around the world. The planning region of Stuttgart is a growing polycentric region with a high demand for housing and commercial space, and at the same time faced with increasing risk of pluvial flooding and heatwaves. Spatial planning that controls and coordinates urban development is an important tool for ex-ante disaster risk reduction. However, planners face a complex task to weigh up a myriad of development goals of which risk reduction is just one. Decision-making tools for planning practitioners and the public that quantify resilience factors spatially can support the integration of resilience and risk considerations into planning processes. In our research, we investigate the use of land-use scenarios as a way to measure the relevance of land to the hazards of pluvial flooding and the urban heat island effect and thus to risk reduction. We do so with a particular focus on operationalizing such a quantitative assessment for the regional planning level, whose task it is to coordinate the spatial development of the municipalities. Such coordination is particularly important in the context of disaster resilience in urban regions such as Stuttgart, because, for example, the development of land in one municipality can increase water runoff or decrease cooling airflows in a neighboring municipality.

In our contribution to this session, we share our insights from a combined effort by research, modelling and planning practitioners to operationalize land-use scenarios as a way to quantify the effect of urban development on risk. A central aim of our approach was relevance to regional and local planning processes. The land that we considered as potential for urban development was thus based on the current planning law. We constructed two land-use scenarios, in which all land in the region with potential for development was fictitiously used for building housing but in two different ways – one with a building density and height and level of soil sealing typical to the local setting, and the second with a more compact urban form with more green and less impervious surfaces. The aim was, firstly, to measure the effect of urban expansion on hazard exposure and, secondly, to determine if through a compact and climate-sensitive urban form the needs for more housing could be met without increasing hazard exposure. The pluvial flood hazard model and an urban climate model of the two scenarios provided useful results for the first aim, but less so for the second. In our contribution, we will share the methodological challenges of translating the scenarios for two different types of models, and discuss the results and their potential as a tool for use in spatial planning processes.

How to cite: McMillan, J. M., Göttsche, F., Janssen, H., Hoppe, H., and Birkmann, J.: Land-use scenarios for assessing climate risk as a tool for spatial planning: a case study of the Stuttgart Region, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15338, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15338, 2024.

vX4.8
|
EGU24-2987
|
NH9.3
|
ECS
|
Jie Liu and Alexander Los

In recent years, the frequent occurrence of natural disasters due to global climate change has brought devastating impacts on many countries’ economies, societies, resources, and environment. How decision makers and practitioners respond before, during, and after a disaster occurs is critical to reducing disaster impacts, restoring system functionality, and improving the adaptive capacity for future events, that is, enhancing CR. Currently, there is a lack of empirical data and process-based approaches to assess the dynamic characteristics of CR and to understand what contributes to CR evolution during the disaster management process (i.e., early warning, emergency response, recovery and adaptation). This research is based on the 7.20 heavy rainstorms that happened in Zhengzhou City. To quantify CR, a Dynamic Community Resilience Assessment Framework (DCRAF) is firstly developed. Then, the disaster management meta-network (DMMN), hazard evolution, and disaster management background are identified as the influencing factors of the dynamics of CR. In the next stage, an analytical model is built to explore the quantitative relationship between the dynamics of CR with its influencing factors, and based on this, propose CR enhancement strategies for different phases of future events. Furthermore, the analytical model is expected to have the ability for CR prediction, whereby decision-makers could adjust actions accordingly to mitigate disaster impacts and recover quickly. This presentation will (1) explain the indicators of the DCRAF in the infrastructure domain (including communication, transportation, water, power, municipal infrastructure, and protection works) and the approach to quantify and integrate them to get CR evolutions; (2) use the empirical data to explain how the DMMN, hazard evolution, and disaster management background influence CR at different stages of disaster management; (3) elaborate on the structure of the analytical model, the approach of extracting CR enhancement strategies, and the approach of CR prediction.

How to cite: Liu, J. and Los, A.: Community resilience in China in the context of disaster management, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2987, 2024.

vX4.9
|
EGU24-188
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NH9.3
|
ECS
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Yuanyue Huang, Haixiang Guo, and Jing Yu

Resilience is increasingly used as a concept for understanding natural disaster systems. Some countries have developed resilient city plans based on theoretical research and applied practice. Landslide is one of the most frequent geohazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA). However, it is difficult to measure local disaster resilience, because of the special geographical location. Current approaches to disaster resilience evaluation are usually limited either by the qualitative method or properties of different disaster. Therefore, there is a great need to explore effective disaster resilience measurement methodologies. In this study, we developed an indicator system to evaluate landslides’ disaster resilience in the TGRE at the county level. It includes two properties of inherent geological stress and external social response, which are summarized into physical stress (Ps) and social forces (Sf). The evaluated disaster resilience can be simulated for promoting strategies with fuzzy cognitive map (FCM). The results show that: (1) The overall disaster resilience in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was relatively low. (2) The resilience of the TGRA has spatial auto-correlation, that is, the areas with similar resilience are gathered in geographical location. (3) Proper policy guideline is essential to promote the disaster resilience. Policy promotes the system from all aspects in the TGRA.

How to cite: Huang, Y., Guo, H., and Yu, J.: Resilience for Landslide Geohazards and Promoting Strategies in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-188, 2024.

vX4.10
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EGU24-13553
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NH9.3
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ECS
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Rubayet Bin Mostafiz, Ayat Al Assi, Md Adilur Rahim, and Carol Friedland

Understanding natural hazard risk is critical for fostering the development of resilient residential communities. Existing web-based tools, while valuable for decision-making, often fall short of providing comprehensive information at a regional level. This research introduces the Flood and Wind Risk and Mitigation Calculation Tool (FWRMCT), an integral component within the "HazardAware" platform tailored for 196 Gulf of Mexico coastal counties in the United States. Current tools predominantly focus on general property information, creating a gap in accurate and region-specific natural hazard risk assessments. FWRMCT addresses this void by offering a comprehensive address-based risk assessment tool that aids decision-making at both individual and regional levels. By incorporating flood and wind risk assessment capabilities, the tool empowers users to make informed decisions regarding long-term mitigation options. Additionally, FWRMCT features toolsets that not only assess risk accurately but also illustrate the economic costs and benefits associated with mitigation measures such as elevating homes, installing storm shutters, reinforcing garage doors, and implementing Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) certified FORTIFIEDTM roof. This renders FWRMCT a valuable asset in promoting the development of flood and wind-resilient residential communities. The research outlines the comprehensive framework of FWRMCT, elucidating its features, methodology, and the economic savings associated with mitigation actions. The goal is to ensure the tool's accessibility and usability for various stakeholders, including researchers, scientists, and homeowners. Through educational resources, the research enhances user understanding, empowering them to actively contribute to the development of resilient residential communities. Moreover, FWRMCT improves the flood and wind Average Annual Loss (AAL) assessment, catering to diverse users based on building types and spatial locations. FWRMCT's unique ability to differentiate between owner/occupant types, such as homeowners and renters, offers recommendations based not only on financial considerations but also on feasibility. This customization provides both tenants and homeowners access to tailored information, assisting them in making well-informed decisions about mitigating flood and wind hazards. Additionally, HazardAware provides a rich repository of educational resources related to flood, wind, and other natural hazards, along with mitigation techniques and associated benefits. By comprehending potential risks and benefits, home occupants enhance their awareness of local risk profiles, enabling them to take proactive measures to safeguard their homes and protect their families and investments. As more residents make risk-informed housing decisions, community resilience increases. FWRMCT within HazardAware excels over other web tools in the hazard risk space by utilizing address-specific calculations that consider building type, attributes, and area. This approach provides more comprehensive information for generating accurate risk assessments. FWRMCT also offers actionable information, including calculated mitigation benefits, costs, and payback periods. Its ability to showcase how risk, costs, and benefits change under different scenarios further sets it apart, making it a versatile tool for users concerned with various home information, building characteristics, and owner/occupant types. This research introduces FWRMCT as a powerful tool within HazardAware, aiming to raise awareness and improve understanding among researchers, stakeholders, communities, and citizens about the significance of addressing natural hazard risk for the development of resilient residential communities.

How to cite: Mostafiz, R. B., Al Assi, A., Rahim, M. A., and Friedland, C.: HawardAware: A Comprehensive Flood and Wind Risk Assessment and Mitigation Tool for Enhancing Resilience in Gulf of Mexico Coastal Communities, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13553, 2024.