Systematic detection of abrupt change and tipping points in TIPMIP

With ongoing anthropogenic emissions and ensuing accelerated climate change, the planet is increasingly leaving its long-stable Holocene state. In fact, recent assessments have shown that a range of climate tipping points are at risk of being crossed at warming levels well within temperature projections of the 21st century. However, such assessments have been largely based on expert judgement of scattered literature, with corresponding large uncertainties in critical thresholds and potential tipping dynamics. The Tipping Point Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP, www.tipmip.org) aims to close this research gap through a standardised framework for numerical experiments exploring tipping across systems and models. Built on precursory experiments, we here introduce the Tipping and Other Abrupt Events Detector (TOAD) method, to automatically identify spatial clusters of dynamically connected regions exhibiting tipping dynamics. This will serve as an evaluation scheme for the suite of experiments generated within the TIPMIP protocol. Overall, this systematic approach to tipping point risks at different levels of human pressures can inform quantification of planetary or Earth system boundaries to map out the safe and just operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene.