EGU24-19777, updated on 11 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19777
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Poster | Thursday, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST), Display time Thursday, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X4, X4.176

Multi-purpose afforestation scenarios under climate change for carbon dioxide reduction 

Florian Kraxner1, Dmitry Schepaschenko1, Sabine Fuss1,2,3, Andrey Krasovskiy1, Anatoly Shvidenko1, Georg Kindermann1, Hyun-Woo Jo1,4, and Woo-Kyun Lee4
Florian Kraxner et al.
  • 1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR), Laxenburg, Austria (kraxner@iiasa.ac.at)
  • 2Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Germany
  • 3Geographical Institute, Humboldt University of Berlin, Germany
  • 4Department of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Republic of Korea

This study aims at identifying the carbon dioxide reduction (CDR) potential of large-scale and multi-purpose afforestation/reforestation at the global level with special emphasis on the Mid-Latitude Region (MLR). Applying a combined remote sensing/GIS approach coupled with biophysical forest and disturbance modeling under various climate change scenarios, we identify potential afforestation locations, inter-alia on abandoned agricultural land and on areas burnt from wild land fires. With the help of IIASA’s biophysical global forestry model (G4M), we calculate the associated land-based CDR potentials through carbon sequestration in afforested biomass and through climate risk-resilient and sustainable forest management dedicated to the supply of bioenergy plants coupled with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) facilities. Finally, three promising scenarios have been identified including I) afforestation; II) reforestation; and III) BECCS. In all scenarios, priority is put on sustainable forest management and nature/biodiversity conservation. Forest modeling results have been combined with recent data sets which have been overlayed in order to provide a unique basis to estimate the land-based CDR technologies’ potential to mitigate climate change and contribute to reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement. In the case of afforestation, preliminary results indicate a total potential afforestation area greater than 1 billion ha.  The largest area potential for afforestation have been identified in the USA. Given the higher productivity (combined with large area available), Brazil is the country with the highest total CDR potential of close to 500 MtC/yr.

How to cite: Kraxner, F., Schepaschenko, D., Fuss, S., Krasovskiy, A., Shvidenko, A., Kindermann, G., Jo, H.-W., and Lee, W.-K.: Multi-purpose afforestation scenarios under climate change for carbon dioxide reduction , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19777, 2024.