Tsunami Impacts Scenarios for the Albanian Coasts: Durres City case study

The ultimate aims of this study is to assess the risk associated with plausible earthquake generated tsunamis along the coasts of Albania, adopting a case study approach based on the modelling of tsunamigenic earthquake scenarios based on the maximum moment magnitude (Mmax) reported in DISS-3.3 joint with the 2019 Mw6.4 Durres earthquake source models. In order to assess the expected impact, we computed the tsunami hazard in terms of maximum amplitude, estimated time of arrivals and inundation zone on the Albanian coast for a set of tsunamis resulting from potential earthquakes generated by the major identified seismogenic sources (namely, Lushnje source from DISS-3.3 database) in the eastern Adriatic Sea. Our approach combines current available information on regional tectonics, recent earthquake swarms in 2019 in scenario-based approach to contribute to tsunami risk assessment for the selected urban area along the Albanian Adriatic coast. The goal is to analyse the propagation of tsunami waves generated by the source set of scenarios, which is potentially able to generate an aggregated scenario of Mmax 7.5, that could cause significant impacts in the region. The modelling are performed by NAMI DANCE numerical code (e.g., Dogan et al., 2021, Natural Hazards, 106(2), 1195–1221; and references therein). For the exposure analysis concerning buildings, landuse and infrastructure, a Geographic Information System (GIS) formatted database is created for the Durres municipality. The Durres exposure analysis in terms of population and built environment were presented in the form of maps, and provide insights for future evacuation plans. Approximately 63% of the buildings consist of single-storey structures, and the number of exposed buildings strongly increased during the period 2000 to 2010. Understanding the composition and construction timelines of the buildings is crucial in assessing their vulnerability and potential impact associated to the simulated tsunamis scenarios. Regarding human impact, the exposure analysis indicates vulnerability in residential, commercial, and public service areas. In Durres city only, the expected population by 2036, estimated at 138,000 inhabitants according to the National Agency of Territorial Planning (AKTP, 2022), will be located in vulnerable urban areas. The results highlight the significant vulnerability of the most important sectors in Durres to possible tsunamis and the need for a rigorous urban planning and enforcement to mitigate future seismic related hazards. This study provides the first extensive examination of urban-scale tsunami risk assessment for cities along the Albanian coastline, highlighting the paramount role of exposure and vulnerability assessment to increase preparedness and inform resilient urban planning.