Fire-precipitation interactions control biomass carbon and net biome production across the world’s largest savanna

Miombo woodlands are the world’s largest savanna, covering 2-3 M km², and are the dominant land cover in the dry tropics of southern Africa. Here we quantify the dynamics of the miombo region carbon cycle, diagnosing stocks and fluxes and their interactions with climate and disturbance, and evaluate their representation in Trendy land surface models (LSMs). We produce a constrained multi-year analysis (2006-2017) using earth observation time series of total wood C (C_wood) and leaf area index to calibrate an intermediate complexity ecosystem model forced with observed climate, deforestation and burned area. Statistical analyses determine the relationships between carbon cycling, environmental and disturbance variables, and evaluate LSMs. The analysis suggests that the regional net biome production is neutral, 0.0 Mg C ha^-1 yr^-1 (95% Confidence Interval -1.7 - 1.6), with fire emissions contributing ~1.0 Mg C ha^-1 yr^-1 (95% CI 0.4-2.5). Spatial variation in biogenic fluxes and C pools is strongly correlated with mean annual precipitation. Burned area is also positively correlated with these pools and fluxes. Areas that are more frequently burned tend to have greater precipitation, and shorter residence time of C_wood. Fire-related mortality from C_wood to dead organic matter likely exceeds fire-related emissions from C_wood to atmosphere, and likely exceeds natural rates of C_wood mortality. LSMs match the biogenic fluxes of the analysis, but diverge on C stocks, timings of heterotrophic respiration and magnitude of fire emissions. The analysis suggests that climate, through precipitation, drives spatial variability in C_wood and GPP across the region. Fire disturbance is the major driver of losses from C_wood. Larger annual precipitation is correlated with both greater GPP and greater fire disturbance. These factors have opposing but unbalanced impacts on Cwood, but the precipitation-GPP effect dominates. Patterns of C cycling across the region are a complex outcome of climate controls on production, and vegetation-fire interactions.