EGU24-21005, updated on 11 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21005
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability

Peter Søgaard Jørgensen1,2,3, Raf Jansen2, Daniel Avila Ortega1,2, Lan Wang-Erlandsson1,3,4, Jonathan F. Donges1,4, Henrik Österblom1,3, Per Olsson1, Magnus Nyström1, Steve Lade1,5, Thomas Hahn1, Carl Folke1,2,3, Garry Peterson1, and Anne-Sophie Crepin1,6
Peter Søgaard Jørgensen et al.
  • 1Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
  • 2Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere Programme, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden.
  • 3Anthropocene Laboratory, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden.
  • 4Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibnitz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
  • 5Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia.
  • 6Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden.

The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity and most recently by what some have called a polycrisis. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of Anthropocene trap for humanity. We identify 14 Anthropocene traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences.

How to cite: Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Jansen, R., Avila Ortega, D., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Donges, J. F., Österblom, H., Olsson, P., Nyström, M., Lade, S., Hahn, T., Folke, C., Peterson, G., and Crepin, A.-S.: Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21005, 2024.