Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability
- 1Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
- 2Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere Programme, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden.
- 3Anthropocene Laboratory, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden.
- 4Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibnitz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
- 5Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia.
- 6Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden.
The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity and most recently by what some have called a polycrisis. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of Anthropocene trap for humanity. We identify 14 Anthropocene traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences.
How to cite: Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Jansen, R., Avila Ortega, D., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Donges, J. F., Österblom, H., Olsson, P., Nyström, M., Lade, S., Hahn, T., Folke, C., Peterson, G., and Crepin, A.-S.: Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21005, 2024.