Developing a practical approach to assessing the drivers of multi-hazard risk in the Alpine space

Unprecedented weather extremes have affected the Alpine space in recent years, significantly impacting human populations, the economy, and the environment. Extreme weather events can trigger a multitude of alpine hazards that, due to the distinct characteristics of the Alpine natural and built environment, have the potential to induce severe compound and cascading impacts. Despite recent scientific evidence that climate change will contribute to more intense and more frequent weather extremes, our understanding of local implications on multi-hazards, compound and cascading effects, and future risks remains insufficient. Consequently, risk managers and decision-makers lack a systematic approach to assess future changes in multi-hazard risk.

We are developing a practical approach that aims to help local risk managers answer fundamental questions about the drivers of multi-hazard risk in their respective Alpine regions. To that end, we combine a questionnaire about the current risk situation with a systematic basis for propagating the effects of future changes, covering all aspects of the risk chain, namely hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity. Ultimately, the method aims to help (1) identify important drivers of (future) risk, (2) assess their contribution to the (future) risk landscape, and (3) identify relevant risk pathways for targeting (future) risk management practice.

The approach relies on detailed knowledge of local conditions that can only be provided by local stakeholders as well as more general input on the future trends in climate and anthropogenic developments that must be provided by higher authorities and the scientific community. This work is part of the X-RISK-CC project, funded by the Interreg Alpine Space Program 2021-27. The approach will be applied to some of the project's pilot regions to help generate insights that will assist risk managers in the evaluation and management of newly emerging risks associated with weather extremes in their respective regions.