EGU24-3675, updated on 08 Mar 2024
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Poleward intensification of midlatitude extreme winds under warmer climate

Emanuele Silvio Gentile1, Ming Zhao2, and Kevin Hodges3
Emanuele Silvio Gentile et al.
  • 1Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences , Princeton, United States of America (
  • 2Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab, NOAA, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, 08540, New Jersey, United States (
  • 3Department of Meteorology, University of Reading and National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Earley Gate, Reading, UK (

In this work, we investigate the global impact of midlatitude cyclones on the geographical distribution and intensity of near-surface extreme wind speeds in a warmer climate. We use  state-of-the-art high-resolution general circulation models developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Results indicate a clear poleward shift of extreme wind speeds, driven by the associated shift in midlatitude storm tracks, and attributed to global warming and associated changes in general circulations. The total number of midlatitude cyclones decreases by roughly 4%, but the proportion of cyclone-associated extreme wind speed events increases by 10% in a warmer climate. Notably, the research has identified Northwestern Europe, the British Isles, and the West Coast of North America as hot spots with the greatest socio-economic impacts from increased cyclone-associated extreme winds. In addition, we also use the GFDL ultra-high resolution global storm resolving model to study cyclone-associated extreme winds.

How to cite: Gentile, E. S., Zhao, M., and Hodges, K.: Poleward intensification of midlatitude extreme winds under warmer climate, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3675,, 2024.