Adaptation of the SWIM hydrological model for forecasting the flow of the Zhabay River during floods/floods.

This study examines climate and hydrology changes in the Zhabay River basin in Kazakhstan and their impact on potential floods in the city of Atbasar. There has been a sustained increase in air temperature in the region since 2000. Significant events, such as the severe flood in 2014 and destructive waves in 2017, have posed a threat to the lives of Atbasar residents.

Utilizing hydraulic modeling with HEC-RAS, researchers determined an extreme hazard level in the eastern part of the city and a high level in the south. Climate change forecasts for 2030 and 2040 indicate further temperature and precipitation increases in the Zhabay River basin, potentially leading to intensified snowmelt and increased precipitation.

The hydrological model SWIM was modified to adapt to the conditions of the plains rivers in Kazakhstan. The study evaluated the model's potential for short-term operational hydrological forecasting. Results demonstrated the effective reproduction of flow dynamics by the SWIM model, aligning with actual observations. SWIM proved promising for operational forecasting of water regimes in Kazakhstan's plains rivers. The article also provides an assessment of short-term hydrological forecasts using the SWIM model, showing high accuracy during flood periods, making it valuable for operational forecasting of water discharge and volume.

This research is intended for decision-makers in water resource management under changing climate conditions. The findings are also useful for water supply and emergency services to take measures for population protection and infrastructure development.