EGU24-4002, updated on 08 Mar 2024
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Unravelling the complexity of multi-risk systems and adaptation pathways

Julius Schlumberger1,2, Marjolijn Haasnoot1, Jeroen Aerts2,1, Veerle Bril2, Lars van der Weide2, and Marleen de Ruiter2
Julius Schlumberger et al.
  • 1Deltares, Flood Risk Management, Delft, Netherlands (
  • 2VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Disaster Risk Management (DRM) is increasingly complex due to interacting climate risks from concurrent hazards. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi-Risk (DAPP-MR) framework has been introduced to assess DRM policies' effectiveness under deep uncertainties - such as future climate change - and to develop integrated adaptive strategies considering interactions across hazards, sectors, and time. So far, no use cases were available that provide evidence regarding the utility of DAPP-MR.

In this presentation we examine DAPP-MR through a synthetic multi-risk modelling case study, focusing on DRM pathways for managing flood and drought risks across different sectors for a period of 100 years. The case study, inspired by a Dutch river delta, accounts for multi-hazard interaction effects such as including co-occurring or preceding droughts amplifying flood risk, and consecutive flood events as well as multi-sector dynamics. While providing insights into the model development process, the result analysis and conclusions, we also discuss the challenges and benefits of combining multi-risk thinking and climate change adaptation decision-making approaches and the implications of multi-risk dynamics on trade-offs and synergies of different risk management strategies.

How to cite: Schlumberger, J., Haasnoot, M., Aerts, J., Bril, V., van der Weide, L., and de Ruiter, M.: Unravelling the complexity of multi-risk systems and adaptation pathways, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4002,, 2024.