HS5.1.1 | Water resources policy and management – System solutions for uncertain futures
EDI
Water resources policy and management – System solutions for uncertain futures
Including HS Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture
Convener: David GoldECSECS | Co-conveners: Marta ZanioloECSECS, Jazmin Zatarain SalazarECSECS, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Julien Harou
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST), 16:15–17:55 (CEST)
 
Room 3.16/17
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall A
Orals |
Mon, 14:00
Tue, 10:45
While water plays a critical role in sustaining human health, food security, energy production and ecosystem services, factors such as population growth, climate and land use change increasingly threaten water quality and quantity. The complexity of water resources systems requires methods integrating technical, economic, environmental, legal, and social issues within frameworks that help design and test efficient and sustainable water management strategies to meet the water challenges of the 21st century. System analyses adopt practical, problem-oriented approaches for addressing the most challenging water issues of our times. These include competing objectives for water, multi-stakeholder planning and negotiation processes, multi-sector linkages, and dynamic adaptation under uncertainty. The session will feature state-of-the-art contributions to water and multisector resource system management solutions under uncertainty.

Orals: Mon, 15 Apr | Room 3.16/17

Chairpersons: David Gold, Marta Zaniolo, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar
14:00–14:45
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EGU24-19445
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ECS
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solicited
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HS Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture
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On-site presentation
Andrea Cominola

Human-water feedbacks have been increasingly studied in the last decades, motivating the foundation of new disciplines such as socio-hydrology and, in general, enhanced interest toward conceptualization and modelling of the spatial and temporal dynamics of human-water systems. With anthropogenic activities being widely recognized as a major driver of global change and the human population being increasingly exposed to hydroclimatic extreme events, human systems are now at the forefront of the water cycle. Yet, human preferences, behaviors, and decisions in relation to water systems - including water usage dynamics, adoption of precautionary measures against climate extremes, and adaptation of urban landscapes - are often modelled based on behavioral or economic theories, or derived from small-scale samples. This often leads to heterogeneous results, which are often case-specific, or lack validation against real-world observations.

The availability of increasingly fine-resolution data from distributed sensors and databases (e.g., water consumption data from intelligent meters, flood insurance adoption records at the household level, and socio-demographic data) and earth observations (e.g., aerial and satellite imagery) provides us with an empirical basis to model heterogeneous individual and societal behavioral patterns, along with their determinants.

In my research, I strive to develop multi-disciplinary data-driven behavioral modelling approaches that bridge hydrologic/hydraulic sciences, informatics, economics, and systems engineering and harness information from multi-scale human data and earth observations and the power of data analytics and machine learning to better understand, model, and characterize human behaviors in coupled human-water systems. In this talk, I will first provide an overview of recent advances in descriptive behavioral modelling in human-water systems, with a focus on household-to-continental scale modelling of residential water consumption patterns and adoption of household flood insurance. Second, I will elaborate on modelling challenges that are motivating ongoing research related to machine learning-based behavioral models, including model explainability, data and computational requirements, generalization and scalability, and the influence of data resolution in time and space. Finally, I will discuss how developing descriptive models that learn human behaviors retrospectively can be used to inform forecasting tasks and formulate policy-relevant recommendations to shape future societal adaptation to climate change. Implications span from informing the design of feedback-based digital user engagement in pursuit of water conservation, to fostering proactive climate adaptation, addressing societal inequalities and heterogeneous water access and affordability conditions, or evaluating incentive programs and policies for sustainable urban development.

How to cite: Cominola, A.: Learning from the past to shape the future. Harnessing multi-scale human data and earth observations to foster sustainable water usage and societal adaptation to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19445, 2024.

14:45–14:55
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EGU24-14942
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Aliya Assubayeva and Jenniver Sehring

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) stands as a globally advocated approach heralded for its promise to orchestrate equitable and coordinated water allocation, usage, and governance. However, its implementation varies significantly across different river basins and countries. Transboundary water resources management in the Aral Sea basin presents a critical environmental and political challenge in the region, bringing concerns not only to basin countries, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan but also to external actors.  The European Union (EU) has emerged as a pivotal donor in developing sustainable water resource management since the early 1990s. The EU's involvement stems from recognizing water challenges as potential threats to regional security and stability and fosters diverse regional and bilateral water programs and projects. This study delved into the evolution of the EU policies concerning environment and water management in the Aral Sea basin, focusing on promoting IWRM, raising environmental awareness, and building capacities. Methodologically, the research employed semi-structured interviews conducted with national, regional, and international experts engaged in EU initiatives, along with a synthesis of academic publications, EU official documents, and recent reports. 

Research reveals the changes in EU water policy in Central Asia since the 2000s, including shifts in objectives, the scale of cooperation, and the interplay between EU policies and the perceptions, responses, and shaping by regional actors. The EU has successfully promoted certain norms of ‘good water governance,’ and Central Asian countries have, to a certain degree, adopted them in their policies and legal frameworks. However, The EU's reliance on soft tools and multi-stakeholder dialogues, limited financial commitments, coordination challenges, and local political constraints have constrained its impact on the ground. This situation has created a palpable sense of 'dialogue fatigue' among national stakeholders. The contextual disparities, divergent interests, and issues at stake between the EU and Central Asian countries pose significant obstacles to transferring EU experiences and practices. Central Asian actors' responses to EU water initiatives, amid the influence of the external and internal political environment, bear implications for sustainable water management. These implications are particularly pressing given the region's vulnerability to climate variability, the geopolitical landscape, and the countries' capacity to navigate multiple crises.

How to cite: Assubayeva, A. and Sehring, J.: EU engagement for sustainable water management in the Aral Sea basin, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14942, 2024.

14:55–15:05
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EGU24-2524
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Ran Mo and Bin Xu

Inter-basin water diversion has emerged as a critical measure for achieving a balanced distribution of water resources across basins. This process requires careful planning and implementation of an effective water supply operation scheme. However, an observed decrease in prediction accuracy with extended time periods reduces the effectiveness of long-term water resource management, presenting a dilemma between the risk of water scarcity due to insufficient water diversion and water wastage resulting from excessive diversion. Moreover, stringent regulations on water resources management are critical to achieving intensive water use. Setting limits on the dynamic spatial-temporal allocation of water resources poses a persistent scientific issue requiring immediate attention. Therefore, this study proposed a multi-objective risk-based optimization model for the inter-basin water diversion system under multiple uncertainties and water-use constraints. Backed by probabilistic predictions of local streamflow and water demand via scenario tree method, the water shortages and wastage risks along with costs associated with water diversion were identified. Simultaneously, a dynamic decomposition method for the total water-use constraints, considering changes in various streamflow scenarios, was proposed. Real-time water supply operations under severe constraints and heightened uncertainty were investigated in this study, while the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Jiangsu Province, China was selected as the case study. The principal findings were as follows: (a) Conflicting relationships exists in this complex system, with the loss of water shortage and the cost of water diversion being the main contradictions. By utilizing high-prediction information, the water diversion was reduced by 41.9%, spilled water by 72.0%, and the water deficit by 10.6%, contributing to achieving an equilibrium in terms of cost, loss, and risk of water diversion and provision; (b) The total water-use constraint effectively controlled inter-basin water diversion and spillage, thus promoting the optimal exploitation of local water supply potential. The core of the water-use constraint is to promote the utilization of water resources through the compression of inter-basin water diversion; (c) By applying the dynamic decomposition of total water-use constraint, the water supply and consumption in a typical dry year increased by 15.46 × 108 m3, theoretically reducing the water deficit by 18.0% compared to the rigid constraint condition, meeting essential agricultural needs during severe drought conditions; (d) The incorporation of chance-constraint functions allowed for a more aggressive water diversion strategy (increasing additional water diversion by 0.574 × 108 m3) while mitigating risks associated with operational decision-making, thereby enhancing reliable water resources management.

How to cite: Mo, R. and Xu, B.: Risk-based multi-objective optimization model for the inter-basin water diversion system under multiple uncertainties and water-use constraints, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2524, 2024.

15:05–15:15
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EGU24-5064
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On-site presentation
Adel Elomri, Sarra Aloui, Adel Zghibi, and Annamaria Mazzoni

Arid regions confront significant challenges due to the scarcity of natural water resources, leading to the depletion of non-renewable reserves and an escalating reliance on unconventional water sources. The intricacies of water resource management within such regions are compounded by the dynamic interplay of influential factors, including rapid urbanization and population expansion.

This research employs an innovative System Dynamics (SD) methodology to construct a comprehensive model aimed at understanding the complex dynamics inherent in water resource management within Qatar, characterized by an arid climate. A Decision Support System (DSS), functioning as a simulated environment, was developed to project the behavioral patterns of Qatar's water resource system from 2021 to 2070. This projection encompasses nine distinct scenarios, categorically addressing changes in physical, environmental, and socio-economic dynamics. These scenarios were further evaluated against Water Sustainability and Reliability Indexes to provide a comprehensive assessment. The outcomes of this study underscore that the conventional “business-as-usual” approach to water resource management can ensure a sustainable balance between water supply and demand for a limited span of 32 years, with the most optimistic scenario extending this sustainability horizon to 50 years. Furthermore, groundwater conservation strategies were integrated and simulated, accentuating the imperative to preserve groundwater resources as an indispensable "backstop" for the nation.

The developed model not only addresses Qatar's specific challenges but also offers insights applicable to other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and similar arid regions. This research contributes a robust decision-making tool for policymakers and stakeholders to assess the long-term implications of various management scenarios. It contributes to the development of sustainable and resilient water policies for the years to come, particularly in navigating the uncertainties inherent in arid region water resource management.

How to cite: Elomri, A., Aloui, S., Zghibi, A., and Mazzoni, A.: System Dynamics Modeling for Resilient Water Resource Management in Arid Regions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5064, 2024.

15:15–15:25
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EGU24-2718
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Landon Marston, Maria Amaya, and Chung-Yi Lin

Growing societal water demands and decreasing water supplies are straining water available for ecosystems and communities in many basins. Increasingly, the only viable option to meet growing urban water demands is to reallocate water from rural agricultural water uses when water supplies have already been fully allocated and it is no longer possible to develop new water supplies. Despite the growing importance of rural-to-urban water transfers, the implications of these transfers on rural prosperity and inequalities are poorly understood. Here, we couple an agent-based model (ABM) with an input-output model to capture the behavior of individual irrigators and how their water transfer decisions propagate through the broader rural economy and shape social dynamics. In this presentation, we will detail our unique modeling framework and share initial results testing multiple hypotheses evaluating how rural-urban water transfers are shaped by social, hydrologic, regulatory, and economic context. This research brings new insights that can be used to evaluate the direct and indirect socioeconomic impacts of water transfers and it can help shape policy to minimize potential negative externalities associated with water transfers.

How to cite: Marston, L., Amaya, M., and Lin, C.-Y.: From Fields to Faucets: Modelling the Dynamics of Rural-Urban Water Transfers, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2718, 2024.

15:25–15:35
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EGU24-4002
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Julius Schlumberger, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Jeroen Aerts, Veerle Bril, Lars van der Weide, and Marleen de Ruiter

Disaster Risk Management (DRM) is increasingly complex due to interacting climate risks from concurrent hazards. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi-Risk (DAPP-MR) framework has been introduced to assess DRM policies' effectiveness under deep uncertainties - such as future climate change - and to develop integrated adaptive strategies considering interactions across hazards, sectors, and time. So far, no use cases were available that provide evidence regarding the utility of DAPP-MR.

In this presentation we examine DAPP-MR through a synthetic multi-risk modelling case study, focusing on DRM pathways for managing flood and drought risks across different sectors for a period of 100 years. The case study, inspired by a Dutch river delta, accounts for multi-hazard interaction effects such as including co-occurring or preceding droughts amplifying flood risk, and consecutive flood events as well as multi-sector dynamics. While providing insights into the model development process, the result analysis and conclusions, we also discuss the challenges and benefits of combining multi-risk thinking and climate change adaptation decision-making approaches and the implications of multi-risk dynamics on trade-offs and synergies of different risk management strategies.

How to cite: Schlumberger, J., Haasnoot, M., Aerts, J., Bril, V., van der Weide, L., and de Ruiter, M.: Unravelling the complexity of multi-risk systems and adaptation pathways, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4002, 2024.

15:35–15:45
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EGU24-5414
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Héctor González-López, Tim Foster, Laura Gil-García, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Jaroslav Mysiak, and C. Dionisio Pérez-Blanco

Scientists and decision-makers globally confront systemic challenges posed by the intertwining issues of water scarcity and climate change. These challenges give rise to cascading impacts across ecological and socioeconomic systems, often exacerbated by feedback loops and unforeseeable consequences (UNDRR, 2021). As non-linear changes loom, the reliance on consolidative modeling becomes dangerous, risking the activation of disastrous tipping points with severe implications for both nature and humans (Kreibich et al., 2022). The costs associated with neglecting uncertainties in modeling and policy spans diverse domains, including ecosystems, income, employment, capital value, insurance, etc. (UNDRR, 2022; Parrado et al., 2019; Adamson and Loch, 2021). This aligns with the concept of Knightian or deep uncertainty, where the external context, system dynamics, and conflicting outcomes are not fully known or agreed upon (Knight, 1921; Marchau et al., 2019; Lempert et al., 2006). A growing scientific and policy consensus emphasizes the need to move beyond traditional notions of optimality and deterministic prediction in conditions of deep uncertainty. Resilience and robustness emerge as crucial concepts, requiring the development of socio-ecological system (SES) models that explicitly quantify uncertainties (Adamson and Loch, 2021; Di Baldassarre et al., 2016; IPCC, 2021; UNDRR, 2021).

Recent research in SES, including coupled human and natural systems and socio-hydrology science, offers innovative modeling techniques integrating human and natural components. These techniques account for feedbacks and heterogeneity between systems, improving insight and the ability to predict tipping points (Gain et al., 2021). Recent studies demonstrate the potential of linking coupled models of human-water systems with sensitivity analysis and multi-system ensembles for robust water management policies (Basheer et al., 2023; Smith et al., 2021).

This review initially identified 2160 papers, filtering them to 198 studies that account quantitatively modelling in, both human and water systems. The geographical focus spans the USA, Europe, Australia, the Middle East, South America, China, and East Africa. The models range from piecewise equations to full-fledged representations. However, structural uncertainties are seldom explored, with only 3.5% of studies conducting multi-model ensemble experiments. This highlights a significant oversight in recognizing biases from simplifications. Conversely, parameter uncertainties are more frequently addressed (20.2%), focusing on hydrology, groundwater, behavioral, infrastructure, climatic, economic, and agronomic variables. Input uncertainties, notably contemporary (discharge data) and future (climate change) inputs, are extensively studied (148 out of 198), employing methods like expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulations. Despite this, the review highlights a limited exploration of structural uncertainties and the potential inadequacy of linear piecewise equations, emphasizing the need for more nuanced and robust approaches to enhance the accuracy and reliability of socio-environmental systems modeling.

Based on this study, we make the following recommendations to mainstream uncertainty quantification into SES modeling: (i) Quantify parameter and structural uncertainties within systems, (ii) Quantify structural uncertainties between models, (iii) Input uncertainties must be more thoroughly assessed and model assumptions systematically revised, (iv) Deliver actionable science that mainstreams uncertainty quantification into decision making, (v) Establish balanced stakeholder engagement and clear and transparent science-policy engagement rules, (vi) Balance complexity and usefulness to keep the model relevant.

How to cite: González-López, H., Foster, T., Gil-García, L., Di Baldassarre, G., Pulido-Velazquez, M., Mysiak, J., and Pérez-Blanco, C. D.: Socio-ecological systems modeling on water resources management under uncertainty: A literature review. , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5414, 2024.

Coffee break
Chairpersons: David Gold, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Julien Harou
16:15–16:25
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EGU24-6125
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Lorenzo Scarpellini, Andrea Ficchì, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti

The alteration in hydrological patterns due to climate change is causing a rise in the occurrence and severity of hydrological extremes like droughts and floods. This, in turn, is leading to conflicts over water resources and increasing financial risk for several economic sectors, such as hydropower and agriculture.
Parametric insurance is a tool for hedging financial risks that is already used for making water-related sectors more resilient. With respect to traditional loss-based insurance, parametric schemes are more flexible, simple and cost-effective, and they also minimize moral hazard and promote further adaptation efforts.
Parametric schemes rely on the definition of an index, correlated with revenue losses, and on predetermined thresholds to trigger payouts compensating for losses. Different conditions can be proposed to contract buyers, varying the payout structure, contract price (i.e., premium) and duration. For example, while in standard index-based insurance, a fixed premium is paid on an annual basis, in ‘collar’ contracts a premium is only paid in years when the index exceeds a pay-off threshold, i.e., when revenues are high. Indexes can also be designed in a variety of ways, but they should be highly correlated with losses, reliable and transparent. While simple indexes based on a hydrological variable are often preferred, multivariate indexes can, in some cases, be more suitable due to the multiple factors influencing revenue losses. This is the case for the hydropower sector, which is highly dependent on both hydrological and market variability. Different parametric insurance contract types have been proposed in the past for various sectors, but alternative schemes are seldom compared on the same system. 

In this study, we investigate the mitigation of economic impacts deriving from droughts and energy market variability on hydropower companies by comparing alternative parametric insurance schemes. Such alternatives are built considering a variety of payout structures, including standard and collar schemes, and both univariate and multivariate indexes based on hydro-meteorological and market variables. We test our methodology on three hydropower operators in the Lake Como system, in the Italian Alps, an area where global warming has caused local temperatures to increase more than double the global average and stakeholders are increasingly exposed to drought risk.
Results show that the use of a multivariate index explicitly considering electricity prices greatly increases performance compared to a simpler univariate hydrological index. In addition, while both standard and collar contracts can effectively reduce revenue variability and improve revenue floor, the collar contract can provide better performance at a lower price. However, such more complex contracts are more sensitive to parameter values and their calibration should be performed carefully.

How to cite: Scarpellini, L., Ficchì, A., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A.: Parametric insurance for hydropower: Comparing alternative schemes combining hydrologic and market data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6125, 2024.

16:25–16:35
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EGU24-6421
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Ziyan Zhang, Eduardo Rico Carranza, and Ana Mijic

The increasing population and new urban developments have posed challenges to urban water management, such as domestic water scarcity and deteriorated water quality.  Meanwhile, the existing development planning frameworks fail to facilitate an effective approach to enhance an efficient and sustainable urban water design. They tend to isolate groups and evidence by relying on different independent models. The state-of-the-art Water Systems Integrated Modelling framework (WSIMOD), which simulates the terrestrial water cycle integrally including physical and human processes, has been developed to provide holistic and integrated evidence to help with decision-making processes. The WSIMOD model has been previously implemented at the river sub-catchment resolution, while a complete decision-making process usually involves different groups, such as city authorities, water companies and environmental regulators, with multiple objectives at multiple spatial resolutions. In the current work, we propose the novel use of the model for multi-resolution simulations (local, borough and river sub-catchment), and aim to help multi-stakeholders and decision-makers understand potential challenges to achieving multi-objectives in a coordinated way. We will also explore the effectiveness of measures to offset urban water issues induced by new developments in the current and future scenarios. Our work can provide insight into efficient and sustainable urban water management strategies for multi-stakeholder planning and future adaptation under uncertainty.

How to cite: Zhang, Z., Rico Carranza, E., and Mijic, A.: Novel Use of Integrated Water System Model for Decision-Making Processes at Different Scales, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6421, 2024.

16:35–16:45
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EGU24-7221
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On-site presentation
Eswar Sai Buri, Venkata Reddy Keesara, and Loukika Kotapati Narayanaswamy

Water, a vital resource, plays a crucial role in supporting human health, ensuring food security, enabling energy production, and sustaining ecosystem services. However, water deficit is the main concern for developing countries caused by a number of factors including finite water supplies, increase in population, and climate change. A sustainable approach to manage the water resources is the optimal distribution of available resources, which recognizes the complex relationships between water systems and the effects they have on the environment, society and economy. In this study, the optimal allocation of land and water resources is carried out across five different sectors such as domestic, agriculture, livestock, industrial, and ecological in an annual time step. Munneru basin is selected as a study area which comes under lower region of the Krishna River Basin, India. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to calculate the water availability. Furthermore, for each administrative unit within the basin, the irrigation water requirements for crops are calculated using the CROPWAT tool. Study incorporates objective functions that take into account both social and economic factors. The multi-objective optimisation function maximizes the usage of water and land resources and optimize benefits from the agricultural sector. To achieve these goals, the Non-dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) is used. Additionally, multi-criteria decision-making technique, such as Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is used to identify better solutions among the Pareto optimal solutions generated by the NSGA-II. Through the application of advanced optimisation algorithms and decision-making techniques, this study aims to contribute valuable insights to the field of water resource management in India. As this approach represents a crucial tool for sustainable development at the basin level, it provides a solid foundation for further extension to other basins across the globe. Furthermore, this work offers the potential for future research into the impacts of climate change and land use/land cover changes on water allocation over various timeframes, without compromising benefits from agriculture sector.

How to cite: Buri, E. S., Keesara, V. R., and Kotapati Narayanaswamy, L.: Sustainable Planning of Water and Land Resources in the Munneru River Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7221, 2024.

16:45–16:55
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EGU24-9445
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Veysel Yildiz, Solomon Brown, and Charles Rougé

Small hydropower plants (SHPs) present an eco-friendly and economically viable alternative to conventional dam-based plants. With only 36% of their worldwide capacity currently tapped, there is potential for substantial global expansion including in industrialised nations. Most SHPs follow run-of-the-river (RoR) scheme, depending on the fluctuating flow of rivers because of their negligible storage capacity. They are deployed in a world characterised by a changing hydro-climate and unpredictable socio-economic evolutions. Due to their inability to regulate  discharge fluctuations as well as their dependency on selling energy at higher rates, these plants are significantly vulnerable to these changes. Design alternatives  are generated through traditional approaches relying on cost-benefit analysis that use past hydroclimatic conditions and disregard operational considerations, without assessing investment robustness in the face of changes. What is more, optimization and robustness analysis of these systems typically require a significant amount of computing time and resources necessitating high performance computing.

We introduce a new framework for robust hydropower system design to address these issues. This framework uses and extends HYPER, a state-of-the-art toolbox that computes technical performance, energy production, maintenance and operational costs of a design.  It combines HYPER with many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) to define robust alternatives.   Our implementation involves a systematic four-step process: (1) Introducing a two-objective formulation to identify design parameters balancing cost and revenue. (2) Creating alternative futures by sampling deeply uncertain factors, encompassing socio-economic (electricity prices, interest rate,  cost overrun) and hydroclimatic factors (median, coefficient of variation, the 1st percentile of flows). These streamflow statistics are then transformed into flow duration curves using an innovative approach. (3) Robustness quantification of alternative designs using two newly introduced financial robustness metrics based on the probability of making the plant financially viable. (4) Identify the most critical parameters influencing robustness through sensitivity analysis and scenario discovery.  We then employ a computationally efficient approximation approach to streamline resource-intensive steps  in optimisation and robustness analysis.

Results indicate that employing the MORDM approach in the design of RoR hydropower plants offers valuable insights into the trade-offs between cost and revenue, while supporting design with a range of viable alternatives aiding in the determination of the most robust and reliable design. Maximising the benefit cost ratio yields more robust and financially viable solutions than maximising NPV, as it leads to less costly designs that generate slightly less revenue on average but tend to better exploit low flows. Traditional design approaches employing identical turbine configurations and focusing on NPV maximisation, have proven to be less effective when compared to designs incorporating non-identical turbines. Moreover, such designs have demonstrated greater vulnerability to climate change, primarily attributable to their less flexible configuration. 

Combined optimization and robustness analysis of a RoR design, initially taking 120 hours, is also made computationally inexpensive through a novel method involving strategic data input reduction. This innovation resulted in a significant 95% reduction in processing time, while maintaining nearly identical outcomes in both steps. An open-source Python version of this methodology is scheduled to be available by July 2024.

How to cite: Yildiz, V., Brown, S., and Rougé, C.: Advancing Small Hydropower Design: A Novel Framework for Robust and Sustainable Solutions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9445, 2024.

16:55–17:05
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EGU24-10180
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Matteo Sangiorgio, Marta Zaniolo, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti

In recent years, climate change has significantly intensified the frequency and severity of drought events. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and changing weather dynamics have led to more prolonged and intense droughts altering water availability and exacerbating tradeoffs, especially in complex multi-sector water systems.

An archetypal example of this situation is the Lake Como water system, in the north of Italy. Lake Como is operated to provide water downstream to the agricultural sector, control floods on the lake shores, and contrast low water levels that would negatively impact navigation and aquatic ecosystems. The conflict between the interests of these sectors is expected to exacerbate in the years to come due to the evolving hydroclimatic regimes. Among different adaptation options considered by the regional authority, we investigate the potential expansion of the lake's active storage capacity enabled by the recent construction of flood mobile dykes.

Here, we contribute a framework for evaluating the impact of droughts on multiple water users. Specifically, we adopt a synthetic weather generator to create multiple streamflow ensembles (scenarios) controlling the drought’s frequency, duration, and intensity. Drought features are then linked to impacts (e.g., agricultural deficit) using a simulation model of the lake. Failure thresholds are defined for each impact indicator to set the minimum level of performance acceptable to each sector. Finally, a logistic classifier is used to identify the combination of drought features leading to a system failure.

Our results show that system failures can be accurately estimated using a linear combination of drought frequency, duration, and intensity. The combined effect of these three characteristics, rather than the extreme values of one of them, is responsible for system failure. Our analysis also proves that storage expansion is fundamental to reduce the downstream deficit, as well as to prevent most of the flood events.

How to cite: Sangiorgio, M., Zaniolo, M., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A.: Assessing the Effect of Droughts on Complex Multi-sector Water Systems, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10180, 2024.

17:05–17:15
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EGU24-12035
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Snigdha Sarita Mohapatra, Meenakshi Arora, Wenyan Wu, and Manoj Kumar Tiwari

The future uncertainties, spanning both climatic (e.g., precipitation) and non-climatic (e.g., population growth) factors, will significantly impact urban water demands and supplies. To enhance future water security in urban areas, the Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM) approach has gained popularity globally. The IUWM approach emphasizes a varied water supply source, addresses multiple sustainability objectives, and ensures the provision of fit-for-purpose water. This study uses an Integrated Urban Water Balance Model (IUWBM), developed in eWater Source platform version 5.10.0.11841, which utilizes different types of water (i.e., river water, groundwater, harvested stormwater, rooftop rainwater, and recycled wastewater) to meet future water needs. However, depending on how much water each source supplies, combining different water sources to meet the demand may result in trade-offs with the integrated urban water system's total cost and energy consumption. Given the future uncertainties, it is crucial to develop robust optimal water mix solutions that are minimal in total costs and total energy consumption across various future scenarios. This study proposes to address this challenge, focusing on Bengaluru (i.e., a city in India) as a case study due to its relevance to the identified issues. The IUWBM is linked to an optimization tool (i.e., Insight Version 5.10.0.11841, which uses the NSGA-II algorithm). Three robustness metrics—Laplace Principle of Insufficient Reasons, Hurwicz Optimistic-Pessimistic Rule, and Signal-to-Noise Ratio—are added to a multi-scenario, multi-objective optimization problem to make the decision-making more robust. All optimal solutions generated adhere to constraints, maintaining an average volumetric and time reliability of water supply above 99.50% for the study area. The findings reveal that low-cost optimal water mix solutions tend to exhibit higher energy consumption as they prioritize savings in the capital costs of building the new water supply infrastructure. Capital costs, therefore, significantly impact the total costs, while operating energy plays a crucial role in total energy consumption in Bengaluru urban water supplies. The present research also found that harvested stormwater and recycled wastewater emerge as potentially low-cost, low-energy, and reliable sources for potable and non-potable water, respectively, under future uncertainties. Additionally, recycled wastewater is preferable for non-potable uses as it offers the added benefit of mitigating adverse environmental impacts on Bengaluru's valleys and lakes.

How to cite: Mohapatra, S. S., Arora, M., Wu, W., and Tiwari, M. K.: Managing Urban Water Supplies under Future Uncertainties: A Case Study of Bengaluru, India, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12035, 2024.

17:15–17:25
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EGU24-17021
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Yuxue Guo, Yue-Ping Xu, Xinting Yu, Li Liu, and Haiting Gu

Providing reservoirs with accurate forecasts is crucial for effective real-time flood control. This research focuses on the key role of forecasts in real-time flood management for reservoirs. A new approach was developed in this study, integrating a forecast-driven methodology to handle uncertainty in reservoir flood control operations. This involves a novel hybrid of two post-processing techniques: the Cloud model and error-based copula functions, together termed as the stochastic errors-based Cloud (SE-Cloud). Additionally, a multi-objective robust optimization model (MRO) was proposed, encompassing risk, resilience, and vulnerability, to address flood control challenges using ensemble forecasts. For comparative purposes, a two-objective stochastic optimization model (TSO) was also created, aiming to reduce both the highest expected reservoir level and peak discharge. The proposed methodology was applied to the Lishimen reservoir in the Shifeng River subbasin, China, aiming to comprehensively verify the relationships among deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts, and flood control performance. The main findings of this study are: (1) The SE-Cloud model was proved to be more efficient in predicting peak flow events and in representing uncertainties in forecasts, with an improvement in hypervolume values ranging from 13.14% to 39.65% over the Cloud model. (2) The MRO strategy resulted in a higher inflow release compared to the TSO, leading to a 0.05m reduction in the anticipated highest water level and a 4.29% increase in peak discharge. (3) With the resilience value downstream remaining constant, it was suggested that increasing upstream vulnerability by using the MRO strategy would not lead to a decrease in resilience. The findings highlight the potential of AI-based ensemble forecasts in augmenting flood control robustness.

How to cite: Guo, Y., Xu, Y.-P., Yu, X., Liu, L., and Gu, H.: AI-based ensemble flood forecasts and its implementation in multi-objective robust optimization operation for reservoir flood control, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17021, 2024.

17:25–17:35
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EGU24-19631
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
James Tomlinson and Julien Harou

Pywr is an open-source water resource system simulation model. It was created almost 10 years ago. Since that time it has been widely adopted in the UK water resources planning community and also used by several researchers around the world. The original design goals were to create a fast, free and extendable library that could handle running large datasets on complex real-world problems. Pywr’s speed has made it popular with researchers and practitioners simulating large water systems under uncertainty (where many future scenarios must be considered).

Here we present an extension, a new simulation approach that exploits modern CPU hardware and instructions. The new method simulates multiple scenarios in parallel using “single instruction, multiple data” (SIMD) techniques. We apply SIMD to a simple interior point method that is capable of solving multiple similar linear programs in parallel. We compare our method against a conventional non-SIMD linear program solver (CLP) and demonstrate that it can provide significant speed-ups for some water resource simulations. We benchmark this method using a GPU using 100s of thousands of scenarios. Our results demonstrate that by exploiting modern CPU features it is possible to achieve further speed-ups for water resource simulations. More efficient (faster) simulation allow practitioners to explore more scenarios, find more robust solutions and/or use more complex models. Some existing and on-going applications will be briefly introduced.

Finally, we reflect on the adoption and evolution of Pywr over the last 10 years, and look at its current usage in UK water resources planning. We explain how the advances above will help planners and developers alike, hopefully setting the foundation of Pywr for the next 10 years.

 

How to cite: Tomlinson, J. and Harou, J.: Latest advances and reflections on 10 years of open-source development and applications, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19631, 2024.

17:35–17:45
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EGU24-20819
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Juliane Haensch, Yashree Mehta, and Bernhard Brümmer

Significant water supply-demand gaps are projected in many regions of India under current scenarios. The government is considering and implementing different measures to support a sustainable water resources management in irrigated agriculture, e.g. incentives to reduce water abstractions, decreasing energy subsidies, metering, effective water pricing or community-based water management. Also, informal water markets are widespread in India; however, their impacts are largely unknown and under-researched due to a paucity in related data. We analyse the development and determinants of farmers’ water purchasing behaviour and related expenditure using a large representative household survey for India over two years. In addition, we merged district level average statistics for precipitation, temperature and groundwater storage with the survey data. Modelling results show that, after accounting for several control variables, irrigation water purchases were more likely where groundwater levels were already low, farmers have a diversified access to water sources but no access to public piped drinking water supply. Particularly in groundwater irrigation areas, purchases were also more likely where: a) conflicts are prevalent within the village; b) families solve (water supply) conflicts individually; c) farmers are not members in a cooperative; and d) farmers have low confidence in State or village governments. Increased expenditure (INR/acre) for irrigation water was associated when purchasing mainly from private as compared to government tubewell owners. There is a need for future research to examine this dataset at local spatial scales and per different irrigation types. This is reflected in the different results for the state-specific models. Overall, results highlight the severity of the state of India’s groundwater resources, local community cohesion issues and the need for better regulation and monitoring in water management, e.g. with regards to informal water markets and agricultural subsidies, to better serve local farming communities and the environment. At the same time, different water-related policies need to take into account the effects of multiple implemented measures as well as the existence of informal water markets.

How to cite: Haensch, J., Mehta, Y., and Brümmer, B.: Impact and drivers of informal water markets in irrigation regions in India, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20819, 2024.

17:45–17:55
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EGU24-21887
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On-site presentation
Haejin Han, Jun Song Kim, Kichul Jung, Jae-hoon Sung, Seongkyu Kang, Yeora Chae, and Yungjung Hyun

The UN disaster report highlights that 90% of disasters from 1995 to 2015 were a consequence of hydrometeorological changes. An analysis by the World Meteorological Organization revealed that water-related disasters, including droughts, heatwaves, typhoons, and floods, which are partly driven by climate change, caused extensive global property damage and loss of life. Despite concerted global efforts for net-zero carbon emissions, there is a noticeable lack of integration of water in decarbonization strategies.

Traditionally, the water sector's response to the climate crisis has primarily centered on establishing policies and systems for water management to adapt to vulnerability, rather than actively participating in greenhouse gas reduction (mitigation). This strategic preference is largely attributed to the absence of a distinct organizational classification for the water sector in the national greenhouse gas inventory, leading to an unclear identification of the sector's own emissions profile.

In light of these challenges, this study addresses the critical need for assessing greenhouse gas emissions within the water sector and advocates for the establishment and implementation of carbon-neutral policies tailored specifically to the sector's unique characteristics. By delving into these imperatives, the study seeks to bridge the gap between global climate efforts and the water sector, fostering a more comprehensive and sustainable approach to climate resilience and mitigation."

Within the study's scope, the organizational boundary of the water sector was meticulously delineated. It encompasses water supply, wastewater, and livestock manure treatment services, as well as water resources facilities such as dams, reservoirs, and river spaces. Comprehensive assessments were conducted to calculate greenhouse gas emissions and absorption within these boundaries. This nuanced approach aims to provide a detailed understanding of the carbon emissions associated with key components of the water sector.

Moreover, the study identifies and assesses potential trajectories for attaining carbon neutrality in the water sector through the development and examination of three distinct scenarios. The demand-led scenario prioritizes water efficiency, leakage management, adoption of a vegetarian diet, and achieving energy self-sufficiency. The technology-led scenario emphasizes innovative technologies and substantial financial investments, while the combined scenario integrates elements from both the demand-led and technology-led pathways, offering a nuanced and balanced approach.

In conclusion, this case study illuminates a promising trajectory toward achieving carbon neutrality in the water sector by 2050, particularly when adopting a mixed scenario that combines elements from the three outlined scenarios. The comprehensive insights garnered from this study contribute to a more sustainable, resilient, and low-carbon future, highlighting the integral role of the water sector in global climate objectives.

Additionally, the study concludes that efforts towards carbon neutrality in the water sector represent a policy direction that enhances the public benefits of adaptation and reduction strategies. By actively engaging in mitigation measures, the water sector not only contributes to climate goals but also enhances its adaptive capacity, creating a synergistic approach that maximizes positive outcomes for both the environment and society. This integrated strategy highlights the potential for carbon neutrality initiatives in the water sector to serve as a model for broader climate action policies, emphasizing the interconnected benefits of sustainable practices.

How to cite: Han, H., Kim, J. S., Jung, K., Sung, J., Kang, S., Chae, Y., and Hyun, Y.: Achieving Carbon Neutrality in the Water Sector: Unlocking Co-Benefits Between Climate Mitigation and Adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21887, 2024.

Posters on site: Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall A

Display time: Tue, 16 Apr 08:30–Tue, 16 Apr 12:30
Chairpersons: David Gold, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Marta Zaniolo
A.66
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EGU24-1397
Meron Znabei, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Jan Kwakkel, and Neelke Doorn

Addressing global water scarcity requires effective, sustainable water resource management. However, water resources management problems are complex challenges with multiple, often contradicting, objectives. Moreover, increasingly, questions are raised regarding the fair allocation of scarce water resources. In this study, we use multi-objective optimization as an approach to explore the trade-offs between these conflicting objectives. Questions pertaining to fair allocation are commonly integrated a posteriori. In contrast, this study explores their a priori incorporation and the impact of doing so on the trade-offs identified through multi-objective optimization. We investigate utilitarianism, egalitarianism, and prioritarianism, representing diverse theories of distributive justice. These theories guide the translation of justice principles into mathematical models, offering insights into how societal values influence water distribution. Our research centers on the management of the heavily disputed shared water resources within the Eastern Nile River Basin. We compare a priori and a posteriori integration of distributive justice principles to find Pareto-optimal trade-offs across irrigation, hydropower, and urban supply objectives for Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia. Our findings demonstrate that the a priori integration produces trade-offs that differ significantly from those obtained through analyses that omit distributive justice principles during optimization and only incorporate them post-optimization for filtering. Utilitarian integration enhances overall system performance, egalitarian integration diversifies solutions, and prioritarian integration produces sharper trade-offs, highlighting the challenges in reconciling distributive justice principles. Our findings contribute to the broader discourse on ethics in many-objective optimization, offering valuable insights for policymakers and water resource managers, especially in contexts where sustainability and fair distribution of water resources are essential. 

How to cite: Znabei, M., Zatarain Salazar, J., Kwakkel, J., and Doorn, N.: Distributive Justice in Multi-Objective Optimization: A Priori vs. A Posteriori Approaches in Eastern Nile Basin Management  , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1397, 2024.

A.67
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EGU24-2029
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ECS
Cédric Magain, Guillaume Renard, Philippe Orban, Aurore Degré, Jeroen Meersmans, Caroline De Clerck, Serge Brouyère, and Joost Wellens

Since the 1960s, the Luxembourgish agricultural sector has been largely influenced by the common agricultural policy. Luxembourg authorities have expressed a desire to make a transition in their agricultural production to focus on national needs and self-sufficiency. A new financial support will be introduced to favor vegetable (horticulture) and fruit growers. At the same time, water resources are under pressure as a result of demographic, economic and agricultural growth. Moreover, climate change exacerbates these pressures. This situation requires an update on the state of available water resources and its users; and to study the potentials and limits to develop irrigated horticulture. To do so, this study aims to identify areas conducive to sustainable irrigated horticulture.

Firstly, land potentially suitable for irrigated horticulture was assessed via a pairwise comparison matrix ranking importance of land features, soil characteristics and water accessibility  (i.e Worqlul et al., 2015; Gonfa et al., 2021; Danbara and Zewdie, 2022), enabling the identification of opportunities and challenges that horticulture producers may face.

Secondly, water needs for those zones are compared to available conventional (Altchenko & Villholth, 2015) and unconventional water resources (Paul et al., 2020). The spatialized net irrigation water requirements for major horticultural crops are computed through the water-driven crop growth model, AquaCrop (Raes et al., 2009). An interface communication between Aquacrop SA  and Python is developed to run numerous spatialized simulations based on retrieved data from soil, crop, climatic condition databases and agricultural practices.

Most papers consider a single water source type for irrigation. One of this study's novelties is to explore the possibilities of combining different types of water resources for irrigation. Available groundwater has been estimated by considering recharge rates calculation as well as surface water and non-conventional water (e.g. treated wastewater), which both were obtained from monitoring data. A hydrological method of ecological flow estimation is used to address environmental needs (European Commission, 2015), while non-agricultural needs are taken into account via consumption data. Another innovative aspect of this study is the assessment of three combined aspects regarding potential future scenarios. On one hand, consumer growth and climate change scenarios alterations on water balance are evaluated. On the other hand, impacts of agricultural practices are quantified through AquaCrop to show the required adaptation of horticulture to those future developments. 

This approach enabled the simulation of water needs of several agricultural scenarios (crop selection, agricultural practices, climate change and competing water users’ impacts), and their confrontation with available water resources. Combined with suitable land for horticulture, zones with different irrigation potential are assessed, providing a decision support aid for the development of irrigated horticulture and water ressources allocations at a national scale.

How to cite: Magain, C., Renard, G., Orban, P., Degré, A., Meersmans, J., De Clerck, C., Brouyère, S., and Wellens, J.: Assessment of land suitability and water resources potential for horticultural irrigation in Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2029, 2024.

A.68
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EGU24-3334
Yanhu He and Binfen Liu

Water resources are the foundation for socio-economic development. The grey water footprint (GWF) serves as a vital indicator that quantifies the impact of human activities on water environment and sustainable water use, and plays an important role in addressing the challenges posed by water pollution and scarcity. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), a crucial driver of China's economy, faces the dual challenges of rapidly developed economy and grappling with severe overloading of its water environment. To systematically assess the water environment of the GBA, this study utilized panel data from 2008 to 2021 to calculate the GWF of this region, considering pollution sources from agriculture, industry, and domestic activities. On this basis, spatial analysis methods and a random forest model were respectively applied to explore the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of GWF in the GBA. Results show that the overall GWF of the GBA initially increased, reaching its peak of 98.94 billion m³ in 2011, and subsequently declined between 2011 and 2021, with an average annual reduction rate of 5.4%. Spatially, both the overall GWF and domestic GWF exhibited an east-to-west decreasing pattern, with the agricultural GWF displaying higher values in the surrounding areas and lower values in the central region. Population and economic factors are the key driving forces of the GWF, with relative importance percentages of 18.07% and 17.55%, respectively. This study establishes a scientific basis for water resource management and sustainable water use in the GBA, providing valuable guidance to relevant government agencies.

How to cite: He, Y. and Liu, B.: Spatial-temporal variation and driving factors of the gray water footprint of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, China, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3334, 2024.

A.69
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EGU24-5016
Yonghyeon Gwon, Darae Kim, Haewon Lee, Mina Yoo, SoHyun Choi, and Jongpyo Park

  In recent years, Korea has witnessed a surge in both drought and heat waves during the spring and summer seasons. In contrast to other natural disasters such as floods, drought is challenging to quantify, and the damage from water shortage tends to develop gradually but persist for an extended period. Due to the challenging task of quantifying potential losses associated with drought, which are associated with diverse forms of damage, there is a need for research to estimate the damages caused by water shortages. Currently, in Korea, official records do not exist for data pertaining to damage or recovery costs categorized by the stage of each drought (only information about individuals experiencing damage and the duration of drought is documented and maintained). Furthermore, identifying the effects of support for damages during water shortages or determining the suitable extent of support is challenging. This difficulty arises from variations in damage assessment standards across different administrative districts and a limited number of relevant cases. Therefore, it is essential to quantify the potential losses from water shortages by deducing the primary influencing factors necessary for calculating such losses.
  Thus, this study aimed to develop a method for calculating potential direct losses associated with water shortages categorized by water use type (household, industrial, agricultural). Additionally, the study aimed to derive optimal strategies for each water use type by analyzing the changes in potential direct losses according to different stages of water shortage scenarios.
  First, cases of major water shortage in the past and pertinent damage data were investigated to establish the process for calculating potential direct losses, and influencing factors were deduced for each water use type to select items for benefit calculation and specific details.
This study proposed a methodology and calculation equation according to the process for each water use type and thus designed a “tool box” capable of calculating potential direct losses by inputting influencing factors related to damages in affected areas. 
  The anticipated outcomes from calculating potential direct losses due to water shortages are expected to contribute to establishing a system that strengthens the competency of water shortage response. This system would include an analysis of water shortage damage reduction scenarios based on basin and water-use types and optimal water supply scenarios (involving a switch between various water use types) in consideration of social and economic aspects.

Acknowledgements
This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through Water Management Program for Drought Project, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE).(RS-2023-00230286)

 

 

How to cite: Gwon, Y., Kim, D., Lee, H., Yoo, M., Choi, S., and Park, J.: Method for Calculating Potential Direct Loss of Water Shortages by Water Use Type and Deducing Optimal Applications, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5016, 2024.

A.70
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EGU24-5137
Moonhwan Lee, Seung Beom Seo, Iljoo Yang, and Jongho Ahn

The climate change impact assessment of the water resources in Korea has been carried out in many research projects and researchers for a long time, but there are no cases in which climate change impacts are reflected in water resources plan due to a variety of reasons. According to Article 27 of the Framework Act on Water Management in Korea, it is required to formulate a Master Plan for National Water Management including measures to respond to the vulnerabilities of water management to climate change, but there is a limit to reflecting climate change effects. In addition, the Board of Audit and Inspection in Korea pointed it out and demanded improvement measures. Various barriers that make it difficult to reflect climate change in water resources plan are climate change uncertainties, insufficient evidence, and limited cost-benefit analysis and so on. For these reasons, this study aims to derive technical and institutional limitations for establishing a water resources plan in consideration of climate change, and to establish a system that can formulate plans to reflect the climate change uncertainties. This study proposes short- and long-term improved measures to establish a water use plan in consideration of climate change such as 1) production and standardization of climate change scenario with multi-model ensemble for water sector applications, 2) preparation of a framework for analyzing water supply and demand considering climate change, 3) publication of national report for climate change impact and risk assessment on water resources, and 4) development of standard guidelines for water resources planning considering climate change. The details of these parts will be shown at the presentation.

[Acknowledgements]

This study was supported by grants through the project (2022003570007) of developing environmental technologies responding to a new climate regime funded by the Ministry of Environment and the project (WO2023-11) funded by Korea Environement Institute.

How to cite: Lee, M., Seo, S. B., Yang, I., and Ahn, J.: Measures to Reflect the Climate Change Uncertainties in Water Resources Plans in South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5137, 2024.

A.71
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EGU24-6023
Marco Toffolon, Francesco Casadio, Nguyen Xuan Quang Chau, Ngoc Hoang Giang Ngo, and Matteo Aimini

Coastal cities are constantly facing new challenges in their relationship with the accelerated sea level rise associated with global warming, and with the quality of the water that flows in their urban canals. Indeed, some of the largest conurbations are innervated by a network of channels, which serve many purposes and provide preferential pathways for water exchange, but also make them prone to flooding. Flows periodically change their direction due to the tidal cycle, letting the fluxes of water, heat, and contaminants, enter and leave the city, like the breath of a living body. However, the presence of these channels is also a major threat of flood risk propagation, and in some cases motivated the construction of tidal gates to protect the city from high water levels. Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) is an example where this strategy is progressively being applied.

In this work, we discuss how the existence of tidal gates for flood protection may be exploited to control the tidal flows in the urban canals with the aim of improving water quality. Interestingly, the channel network in HCMC is characterized by several closed loops, where the periodic “breathing” is not efficient to renew the water in the central branches of the network because the water tends to enter and leave the system synchronously at the two ends of the loop, dictated by the water levels at the two connecting sections in the estuary, where tide propagation is typically fast so that the levels are similar. Therefore, we propose to exploit the gates not only to protect the city from high tides, but also to induce a prevalent unidirectional flow in the closed loops by alternately opening and closing the gates according to the difference in water levels between the channels and the estuary. Careful management can promote the removal of pollutants with beneficial effects on water quality, and potentially contribute to the transport of sediments, thus reducing the need for dredging. We demonstrate how the system can work by means of hydrodynamic modelling, first considering an idealized closed loop and then extending the simulation to a realistic model of the HCMC channel network.

How to cite: Toffolon, M., Casadio, F., Chau, N. X. Q., Ngo, N. H. G., and Aimini, M.: Breathing cities: improving water quality in urban channels by controlling tidal flows, an idea for Ho Chi Minh City, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6023, 2024.

A.72
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EGU24-7107
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ECS
Exploring pathways to sustain a stable transboundary cooperation for Lancang-Mekong River Basin under changing hydrological conditions
(withdrawn after no-show)
Bingyao Zhang, Yu Li, and Chi Zhang
A.73
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EGU24-8816
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ECS
Rahul Satish, Martin Oberascher, and Robert Sitzenfrei

A continuous and reliable drinking water supply is crucial for the social well-being and economic growth of an area. Therefore, water distribution networks (WDNs) are a critical component of the urban infrastructure, ensuring the delivery of potable water to users. However, these systems are vulnerable to loss of function and reliability when confronted with failure scenarios. Crises scenarios like cyber-physical attacks or contamination, pandemic with changes in consumption due to social distancing regulations, uncoordinated withdrawal of drinking water for storage purposes or loss of knowledge due to personnel changes could have an impact on WDN resilience. These disturbances can strain the physical elements, affecting both water quantity and quality. However, the exposure of various elements to diverse disturbances is multifaceted. Understanding the interplay between failure scenarios and potentially affected elements within the network is crucial for improving the resilience of the WDN. To further enhance the understanding between these dependencies, this work links specific failure scenarios with their corresponding impacted elements in an exposure matrix and highlights the varying importance of these elements in the WDN by a hierarchical graphical structure.

The research consists of two phases. The first phase encompasses the identification of classical and emerging failure scenarios through a literature review. Thereby, 29 failure scenarios are categorized into 7 groups (water infrastructural failure, natural hazards, contamination, pandemic, attacks, other infrastructure/elemental/factor failures, and digital disruptions). Additionally, WDN elements are defined using a literature review and expert input for the field of water distribution.

In the second phase, investigation and documentation of WDN elements affected by these failure scenarios, specifically for Alpine WDNs, are conducted. Information is gathered through literature review and workshops with experts in the field. The outcomes are organized into three exposure matrices based on failure types (physical elements, quality, and quantity) resulting from failure scenarios affecting the WDN. For instance, during a river flood, diverse network elements such as ground-water wells, water treatment plants, pipes, valves, pumps, and hydrants may be adversely impacted, influencing both water quality and quantity in the WDN. Elevation tanks and springs remain impervious to river floods due to their elevated positioning, preventing floodwaters from reaching these structures and ensuring their resilience against the event. Finally, the exposure-matrix is a graphical representation that illustrates the relationships between different elements in a system and their vulnerabilities to various failure scenarios. A network graph is used to visually represent the exposure-matrix in a topological hierarchy. The results can offer guidance for WDN operators in risk assessments, providing an exposure matrix to anticipate potential elemental failures during disasters, thereby proactively setting action and enhancing the overall resilience of the WDN.

Funding: The project “RESIST” is funded by the Austrian security research programme KIRAS of the Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF).

How to cite: Satish, R., Oberascher, M., and Sitzenfrei, R.: A graph-based exposure representation of elemental failures in alpine water distribution networks , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8816, 2024.

A.74
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EGU24-11286
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ECS
Hamidreza Rezazadehkhorasani and Amaury Tilmant

Planning hydraulic infrastructure is challenging as it requires the careful consideration of many uncertain factors, such as the evolution of future demands and supplies. The deep uncertainty attached to climate change makes traditional planning approaches based on well-characterized statistical distributions ill-suited. This has led to the emergence of a new paradigm, "prepare and adapt," which focuses on developing robust and adaptive systems that can perform well under a wide range of futures. This research presents a framework for planning new water resources infrastructure (e.g., reservoirs, hydropower plants) based on real options, deep uncertainty, and temporal multicriteria analysis (TMCA). The real option component essentially handles the issues associated with the timing, sequencing, sizing, and operating of those infrastructures. The deep uncertainty that characterizes future hydroclimatic conditions is captured by a large ensemble of GCM-based hydrologic projections. Finally, TMCA allows us to compare and rank the options with respect to several criteria reflecting the different water uses (e.g., irrigated agriculture, hydropower generation, navigation, fisheries, flood recession agriculture, municipal and industrial water supply) in a dynamically changing environment induced by both climate change and the options. The framework is applied to the Senegal River Basin (SRB) in West Africa. The SRB is a complex system with several planned hydropower projects and irrigation schemes, making it ideal for testing the proposed framework. The results identify development pathways associated with different tradeoffs between risk and reward.  The framework also helps decision-makers understand the distributional effects of these development pathways on society.

How to cite: Rezazadehkhorasani, H. and Tilmant, A.: A real options-based decision-making framework for hydraulic infrastructure investments, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11286, 2024.

A.75
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EGU24-11849
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ECS
Adria Rubio-Martin, Eulalia Gomez-Martin, Erik Ansink, Leon Bremer, Lilian Tavernier, Juan-Pablo Henao, Roberto Villalba, Ema Lazorcakova, Miroslava Rajcaniova, Solene Fovelle, Clemence Gracia, Aaron Cutajar, Mattia Monaco, Hector Macian-Sorribes, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Pietro Sala, and Maria Vrachioli

The RETOUCH NEXUS project aims to create and improve strategies of managing water, energy, food and ecosystems (WEFE nexus) together that are innovative, fair and operative. The objective of these strategies, which include smart water governance schemes, economic instruments, and refined institutional frameworks, is to ensure water availability within the European Union (EU) amid a range of future challenging scenarios, including those induced by climate change.

Although economic instruments were highlighted as powerful measures to achieve sustainable water management by the EU Water Framework Directive, their practical application is still challenging and mostly depends on national and regional setups and legislative frameworks. In this contribution, we have developed a review of economic, financial and business instruments that have been used or proposed for the water sector in Europe. This analysis extends to an assessment of the effectiveness, efficiency, and replicability of these instruments. The foundation for our study is a thorough review of existing literature, data repositories, and case studies, coupled with extensive consultations with key stakeholders in the domain. We have identified the main drivers, barriers and opportunities for the implementation of these instruments, and analysed their impacts on water valuation, risk management, investment leverage and system sustainability. The aim is to explore the potential for transferring and adapting these instruments to different contexts and scales, taking into account the nexus perspective on water, energy and food security.

The results, delivered as factsheets, provide a landscape of recommendations for policy makers, water managers and practitioners on how to design and apply these instruments in a coherent and integrated way. These factsheets serve also as a valuable resource for educators by translating complex economic instruments into accessible information, enhancing public comprehension of the strategies proposed in the RETOUCH NEXUS project and their previous application. Ultimately, by providing insights into potential avenues for transferring and adapting these instruments to diverse contexts and scales, we contribute to the creation of a versatile toolkit for sustainable resource management.

Our research within the RETOUCH NEXUS project contributes to the academic discourse by offering a detailed exploration of economic, financial, and business instruments in the water sector, while also offering a resource for educators and policy makers to enhance the broader public understating of these instruments. By bridging the gap between theory and practice, we aim to empower decision-makers with the knowledge required to navigate the complexities of resource management, ensuring resilience in the face of evolving challenges for the WEFE nexus. Through our analysis and actionable recommendations, we aspire to catalyze positive transformations in water governance and resource sustainability within the EU and beyond.

Acknowledgements:

This study has received funding from the RETOUCH NEXUS project (grant agreement No. 101086522), under the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme.

How to cite: Rubio-Martin, A., Gomez-Martin, E., Ansink, E., Bremer, L., Tavernier, L., Henao, J.-P., Villalba, R., Lazorcakova, E., Rajcaniova, M., Fovelle, S., Gracia, C., Cutajar, A., Monaco, M., Macian-Sorribes, H., Pulido-Velazquez, M., Sala, P., and Vrachioli, M.: A Comparative Analysis of Economic Instruments for Water Management across Europe, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11849, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11849, 2024.

A.76
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EGU24-12224
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ECS
Christoph Gocht

Flooding is a regularly recurring event and causes major damage worldwide every year. Due to urbanization and the associated sealing of land, more and more retention areas are being lost, which, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, further increases flooding in urban areas. In addition, settlement development worldwide, including in Germany and Vietnam, is partly taking place in floodplains, which poses a major threat to the health of the population and causes high reconstruction costs in both countries. However, economic development continues to be given higher priority than flood protection. Severe flood events in the recent past in both countries, accompanied by large losses of lives and asset values, show that current strategies are reaching their limits and new approaches are needed.        
      Based on a GIS analysis, this study derives and compares the legal bases and strategies of both countries, which represents a new scientific approach. The results show that both countries still have some hurdles to overcome on the way to integrated flood risk management and can learn a lot from each other. For example, Vietnam can make use of some aspects of the legal framework in Germany. In addition to addressing flood risk through the creation of comprehensive flood hazard and risk maps (§74 WHG) and the preservation of natural retention areas (§67 WHG), the dismantling of "top-down" mechanisms through the early involvement of the population in planning processes (§3 Para. 1 BauGB) is also a high priority for the country. In another direction, however, Germany can also take up some aspects of the Vietnamese principles. For example, in addition to a much closer link between disaster control and meteorological services (Art. 7 in conjunction with Art. 24 and Art. 42 No. 3c of the Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Control) and the participation of the population or the consideration of traditional experiences in the creation of flood hazard maps (Art. 1 Para. 1 No. 6 National Strategy for Disaster Prevention, Response, and Mitigation), raising awareness and creating a positive risk perception among the population (Art. 21 No. 3c Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Control) as well as smart city approaches can also represent an important extension of their own strategy. Both countries should pay particular attention to the protection of their ecosystems, which make an important contribution to integrated flood risk management. The here presented work shows that Vietnam and Germany face similar challenges and would benefit from drawing on each other's experience. Despite the different climatic and political conditions, both countries could expand their strategy through co-development and establish a sustainable flood risk management.         

How to cite: Gocht, C.: Institutional approaches to flood risk management in Vietnam and Germany - a comparison, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12224, 2024.

A.77
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EGU24-12328
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ECS
Hai Yen Nguyen, Le An Ngo, Le Long Ngo, Tewelde Hagos Gebremadhin, Marco Peli, Ivan Serina, and Roberto Ranzi

Several optimisation models have been applied for optimising reservoir operations throughout the past decades. However, due to the limitations of each approach, the complexity of the system, and the conflict of combining purposes, reservoir operation evaluation and improvement remain classical. In this study, we apply a Genetic Algorithm model to generate a trade-off curve that presents alternative optimal strategies for the Hoa Binh reservoir in Vietnam. The study focuses on two goals: downstream water demand in the Red River Delta (RRD) and hydropower production in the dry season. Even though water availability in RRD is projected to be more plentiful until the mid-century, drought duration and intensity are also expected to increase. Thus, developing effective operation rules during the dry season is crucial for water security and the regional economy. The findings indicate that an optimised regulation can be developed to close the imbalance between water supply and demand while maintaining a high rate of energy generation. The optimisation criteria will also preliminarily consider the impact of the sediment transport reduction induced by trapping sediments generated by reservoirs: the enhanced erosion capacity of more clear streamflow water causes scouring of the riverbed, thus requiring more water release to meet the irrigation demand at the intake of the irrigation channels. In the future, reservoir management policies might also need to integrate the geomorphological changes induced by climatic and anthropic factors.

How to cite: Nguyen, H. Y., Ngo, L. A., Ngo, L. L., Gebremadhin, T. H., Peli, M., Serina, I., and Ranzi, R.: Optimal trade-off for operation of multi-purpose reservoir in the dry season, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12328, 2024.

A.78
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EGU24-12549
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ECS
Davide Spinelli, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti

The acceleration in the hydrological cycle and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events prompt a shift towards adaptive control strategies in water reservoir management. In this study, we explore the potential of improved hydro-meteorological forecast products, particularly those extending to longer time scales and incorporating uncertainty information through Ensemble Forecast (EF), to facilitate this transition.

In particular, we consider the problem of managing Lake Como, a regulated system with diverse objectives, including flood prevention, low-level avoidance, and meeting downstream agricultural and hydroelectric generation demands. The lake operation can be informed using short-term, locally calibrated deterministic forecasts as well as sub-seasonal/seasonal large-scale ensemble forecasts from the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), a part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service.

The lake regulation is determined by operating policies derived using the Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search method, resulting in Pareto optimal policies capable of integrating various forecasts as inputs. This approach is seamlessly integrated with our newly developed algorithm, PECAN (Parallel Ensemble foreCAst coNtrol), designed to harness uncertainty information within EF. Validation of these policies is crucial for determining their generalisation capabilities, and it is performed through Blocked K-Fold Cross-Validation.

In this study, we demonstrate the presence of overfitting during the optimisation process and present an early stopping rule designed to save computation time while learning robust policies. Additionally, we introduce a second rule to dynamically determine epsilon parameters for the ε-approximate Pareto front, particularly useful in the presence of diverse multi-year climatic conditions. Through the application of these rules, we show the importance of cross-validation, highlight the greater generalisation capabilities of PECAN, and present how PECAN enables EF at longer time ranges to be competitive against locally calibrated deterministic forecasts at shorter intervals.

How to cite: Spinelli, D., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A.: Opportunities and challenges of Ensemble Forecast and Cross-Validation for MOEA optimisation in water resources management, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12549, 2024.

A.80
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EGU24-14956
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ECS
Danielle Carbon and Till Wenzel

Climate change threatens profoundly the quality and quantity of groundwater  resources. Extreme precipitation patterns and existing hydrospheric basins are likely to change. Today, in some regions a significant decline in surface and groundwater reservoirs can already be observed. Rather than solely relying on reactive adaptation measures during water scarcity emergencies, governments have the responsibility to develop proactive and preventative strategies through an effective emergency management.

However, some emergency measures such as the emergency drinking water supply or wildfire response require the permanent availability of regional surface and groundwater. Among other things, emergency drinking water management is mainly based on the extraction and treatment of surface water (e.g. mobile via tanker lorries) and groundwater (e.g. static via emergency wells).

The results of the NASA programme GRACE indicate that, in particular, regions where surface water has already declined significantly due to prolonged periods of drought tend to substitute groundwater. Concerns are raised that such substitution can further increase regional affectedness by further reducing the local water availability. 

In a comprehensive review of 79 documents dealing with the exemplary management of drinking water emergencies in Germany, it became clear that currently the synergy between emergency measures and water resources are not sufficiently reflected.

The study analysed publications by the German Technical and Scientific Association for Gas and Water (DVGW), the Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), the Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW), the fire and rescue services and the German Red Cross (DRK).

The main objective was to identify gaps in the emergency management strategies including questions such as: To what extent regional water shortage and the resulting specific challenges for emergency management are currently addressed? And in turn, which impacts arise from the emergency management for water resources?

The results reveal that existing strategies are not tailored to the specific conditions of water stressed regions, as they neither address the damage or failure of the intended emergency structure (e.g. drying out of emergency wells) nor the protection of local water resources through further water abstraction. As a conclusion, emergency management should be integrated into a more holistic water management in an interdisciplinary approach. In doing so, regional water stress can be mitigated while at the same time the emergency management remains effective in face of future need.

Further work will include an EU-wide survey on how different emergency stakeholders involved in water-intense disaster management consider cascading effects of their measures and what GIS-based tools might support their decision making.

How to cite: Carbon, D. and Wenzel, T.: The role of emergency management in times of water stress – The need for adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14956, 2024.

A.81
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EGU24-16076
Robustness Framework Leveraging Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming in the Indus River Basin
(withdrawn)
Charles Rougé, Amal Sarfraz, and Lyudmila Mihaylova
A.82
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EGU24-20154
Vitalie Dilan and Lucia Capatina

The Republic of Moldova is prone to different kinds of natural hazards including drought, floods, severe weather, earthquakes, and landslides. Heavy rains result in frequent floods, to which a great part of the country's settled areas is exposed. The most recent severe floods occurred in 2010. Climate variability and change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. A large proportion of the flood risk in Moldova occurs on the floodplains of the two main rivers (the Prut and the Nistru). There are systems of flood defence dykes on these rivers and on some of the tributaries. These provide flood protection but there is a concern about their condition. In order to promote measures to increase natural water retention by conserving and improving the water storage capacity of soils and ecosystems, recently, a list of non-structural measures with natural - based solutions (NBS) approach were included in some policy documents. The most important policy documents are Flood risk management plans and Management plans, approved by Government decisions: GD 562/2020 – for flood risk management plans, and respectively, GD 814/2017 for Management Plan for Nistru river basin district, Ist cycle and GD 444/2022 for Management Plan for Danube – Prut and Black Sea river basin district, IInd cycle. These strategic documents are developed at the river basin district level; the territory of the Republic of Moldova consists of 2 river basin districts – Nistru and Danube – Prut and Black Sea. In this paper in deep analysis of NBS measures from different policy documents is provided. 

How to cite: Dilan, V. and Capatina, L.: Nature based solutions integration in the flood risk management policy documents: the Republic of Moldova case., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20154, 2024.

A.83
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EGU24-21453
Zenobia Talpur, Jeong Eun Lee, Mansoor Ahmed, and Il-Moon Chung

This study employs advanced Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) techniques to thoroughly analyze the impact of climate change-induced droughts in the Gimcheon watershed within the Nakdong River Basin, South Korea. Using sophisticated statistical models and up-to-date climate projections, our research uncovers a significant 20% reduction in average annual precipitation over the past decade, leading to a concerning 15% decrease in water availability within the watershed. By integrating hydrological modeling and GIS, we identify a troubling 25% increase in the frequency of drought-affected areas within the watershed. Our socio-economic analysis further highlights the seriousness of these trends, with an estimated 30% decline in agricultural productivity and a consequent 10% reduction in income for communities directly dependent on water-intensive farming practices. In response to these alarming findings, our study recommends an Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) strategy, utilizing GIS to pinpoint strategic locations for innovative water-use efficiency measures. Statistical analysis underscores a significant 20% gap in existing water management practices, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted interventions. Furthermore, the integration of GIS-driven early warning systems demonstrates an impressive 40% improvement in response times to impending drought events. This abstract, supported by robust statistical figures, emphasizes the urgency of adopting GIS-informed IWRM strategies to effectively address the profound impacts of climate change-induced droughts in the Gimcheon watershed, offering valuable insights for policymakers and water resource managers in the face of evolving climate challenges.

 

Acknowledgment : Research for this paper was carried out under the KICT Research Program (Development of IWRM-Korea Technical Convergence Platform Based on Digital New Deal) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT.

 

How to cite: Talpur, Z., Eun Lee, J., Ahmed, M., and Chung, I.-M.: Assessing the Impact of Climate Change-Induced Droughts in the Gimcheon Watershed: A GIS and Remote Sensing Approach for Informed Water Resource Management, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21453, 2024.