Exploring Risk Perception through a game of Downward Counterfactuals

Italy, with its complex geological profile, faces significant seismic and volcanic hazards, particularly in the Campania region (Southern Italy). Here, the Campi Flegrei caldera, one of the most hazardous active volcanoes in the world, is located in a highly densely populated area close to the city of Naples. The caldera, thus, poses unique challenges with its submerged volcanic features, hydrothermal activity, and bradyseismic phenomena, including recent reports of inflation around Pozzuoli and increased seismic activity.

Recognizing the importance of public awareness, especially among the younger generation, serious games that blend serious and playful elements emerge as innovative tools for science communication. These games actively involve participants, making learning more engaging. Parallelly, incorporating downward counterfactual analysis in risk assessment enhances disaster preparedness by considering how situations could have been worse. This approach finds application in addressing extreme natural risks like volcanic eruptions.

To raise awareness, a democratic and egalitarian role-playing game was designed, providing an interactive and instructive experience. Participants engage in a roundtable of Counterfactuals in the Negative, imagining historical volcanic eruptions with worse outcomes, enhancing individual risk intelligence.

An evaluation protocol has been developed to assess the impact of this experience on risk perception, with this presentation focusing on the outcomes of the 2023 edition of "Futuro Remoto," where almost 200 participants joined the game.

This work has been supported by CORE ("sCience and human factor for Resilient sociEty") project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 - research and innovation program under grant agreement No 101021746.