Simulating Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution through the mid-Pleistocene transition

Unravelling the main drivers of the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT; around 1.2–0.8 million years ago) remains a significant challenge in paleoclimate research. Noteworthy changes that occurred in the climate system during that time include a pronounced shift from 41-kyr to 100-kyr periodicity of glacial cycles and the emergence of much larger ice sheets. While a number of studies have focused on the interplay between the climate system and northern hemispheric ice sheets during the MPT, the role of Antarctica in driving and responding to climate change at that time remains largely unknown. This is particularly relevant as, consequently, the response of Antarctica’s vast ice sheets to a major transition in Quaternary climate, and their potential role in shaping the transition, remain uncertain. 

Here, we use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to simulate the transient evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through the MPT. Computation of the evolution of ice sheets in PISM is enabled by means of a climate index approach that is based on snapshots of climatic conditions at key periods. The climate index approach interpolates between individual climate snapshots based on various paleo-proxy records. Further, we test Antarctica's response to different pre-MPT GCM snapshots of different CO2, orbital, and land-sea mask configurations. Climate snapshots are derived from the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS), a general circulation model that simulates atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land vegetation in dependence of reconstructions of paleogeography, orbital configuration, and greenhouse gas concentrations.  

Our study aims to better understand the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheets during the MPT and to constrain potential dynamical transitions in the climate-cryosphere system. Furthermore, we seek to clarify the influence of different pre-MPT ice sheet configurations on simulated characteristics of this transition.  

The findings from this study will contribute to an improved understanding of cryospheric changes that occurred during the Quaternary. Furthermore, we aim to provide insights into potential future Antarctic trajectories under anthropogenic climate change.