Nature-Based Solutions: Evaluating the global carbon sequestration potential of agroforestry and increased tree cover on agricultural land.

The recently released IPCC Mitigation report placed agroforestry as one of the top three Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) mitigation pathways, noting that it delivers multiple biophysical and socioeconomic co-benefits such as increased land productivity, diversified livelihoods, reduced soil erosion, improved water quality, and more hospitable regional climates, concluding there is ‘high confidence’ in agroforestry’s mitigation potential at field scale. As such, agroforestry is one of the most cited nature-based solutions in development strategies and in reporting of nationally determined contributions (NDC),  both for its potential mitigation benefits, but not least for the adaptation, resilience and livelihood benefits it can provide, across scales from agro-industrial farming to small farmer holdings. Here we present recent global and regional estimates of above- and below-ground biomass on agricultural land based upon IPCC Tier 1 estimates and compare results with an updated carbon density map based on remote sensing, with results indicating the methodology and initial estimations are robust. Two future scenarios are evaluated to estimate carbon sequestration potential of increasing tree cover on agricultural land: 1.) incremental change and 2.) systematic change to agroforestry. Estimates of above- and below ground biomass carbon were combined with a remote sensing-based tree cover analysis to estimate the increase in biomass. Global increases (4-6 Pg C for incremental change; 12-19 Pg C for systematic change) highlight substantial mitigation potential. Increasing global tree cover on agricultural land by 10% would sequester more than 18 Pg C over a decade. South America has the highest potential, followed by Southeast Asia, West and Central Africa, and North America. Brazil, Indonesia, Philippines, India, the United States and China are among the top countries. Additionally, we provide an overview and analysis of the unique and significant contribution agroforestry can provide in mountainous regions and in reducing pressure on irrecoverable carbon.