The Evolving Relative Role of Stratospheric Ozone and Greenhouse Gasses in Modifying the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink from 1950-2100

Southern Ocean winds have strengthened and moved poleward in the latter half of the 20th century, which has been attributed to the depletion of stratospheric ozone and to climate warming from rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Both ozone recovery and changing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to continue modulating wind structure throughout the 21st century. Here, we quantify the relative roles of ozone and greenhouse gases on Southern Ocean wind structure from 1950-2100 using the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) model output, with a combination of three scenarios of ozone and two scenarios of greenhouse gas evolution. Both ozone depletion and increases in greenhouse gas concentration act to increase wind speed over the Southern Ocean. The influence of ozone is predominant in summer winds, while the influence of greenhouse gases acts in all seasons. We show that wind speeds return close to their original levels by the end of the 21st century under a low-greenhouse gas scenario with ozone recovery. The influence of ozone on wind speed was dominant in the 1950-2000 time-period, but not in the 21st century when the influence of greenhouse gases becomes two to three times larger than that of ozone, even in the low emissions scenario. We find significant effects of both ozone scenario and greenhouse gas emissions on physical-oceanographic variables (sea surface temperature, mixed layer depth, and overturning circulation). Finally, we quantify the relative contributions of these physical changes to the evolving carbon sink of the Southern Ocean, and discuss how wind-induced physical changes can alter ecosystem processes and the associated carbon export to the deep ocean.