Assessing impacts of Earth system tipping points on human societies

Assessments of climate change effects on humans and ecosystems have previously included only limited information on the consequences of climate tipping points. While some national evaluations have touched on tipping point implications, assessment has been largely qualitative, with minimal quantitative analysis. Understanding and quantification of impacts of tipping points is recognised as a significant knowledge gap, and improving the research base in this area is essential for climate risks to be fully evaluated.

This presentation examines the current knowledge of Earth system tipping point impacts on people, exploring the evidence on impacts from individual tipping points, and assessing specific sectors and their vulnerability to these tipping points. Localised effects arise when climate tipping points, such as permafrost thaw and forest dieback, are crossed. These effects stem from land surface changes and alterations in regional climates and weather extremes. Global impacts manifest through large-scale shifts in atmospheric and oceanic circulations, altering global warming rates and sea level rise. Oceanic dynamics, like collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, can reshape regional climates and cause widespread shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns. Similarly, cryospheric tipping points, such as marine ice cliff collapse, have the potential to accelerate sea level rise, affecting flooding hazards like coastal inundation. Biosphere tipping points, such as Amazon dieback, intensify greenhouse gas concentrations, hastening global warming and its associated extreme weather events, regional climate shifts and sea level rise.

All these have the potential to impact the security of water, food and energy, human health, ecosystem services, communities and economies. The body of evidence varies across tipping points and sectors, but the implications for profound impacts across all areas of human society are clear.