On the drought-flood conundrum: do droughts cause more or less flooding? Let’s discuss the science

There seem to be two contrasting views on flooding after drought. Subsurface hydrologists pose that with dry antecedent conditions there is more storage available, which leads to lower flood peaks. Surface hydrologists pose that dry, hydrophobic soils support less infiltration and more surface runoff, which leads to higher flood peaks. But which theory is true? Or can both be true? And what happens if you put people and their actions in the mix? In this presentation is discuss the scientific and empirical evidence related to drought-flood events. I draw on scientific literature, global data analysis, a review of reports and news articles, qualitative case studies, and science communication examples. I will mostly focus on hydrological processes, but also highlight some meteorological and anthropogenic aspects.