NH5.3 | Natural Hazards and Climate Change Impacts in Coastal Areas
EDI
Natural Hazards and Climate Change Impacts in Coastal Areas
Convener: Luke Jackson | Co-conveners: Joern Behrens, Alexandra Toimil, Nicoletta Leonardi
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 1.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Tue, 10:45
Tue, 16:15
Coastal areas are vulnerable to erosion, flooding and salinization driven by hydrodynamic hydro-sedimentary and biological processes and human interventions. This vulnerability is likely to be exacerbated in future with, for example, sea-level rise, changing intensity of tropical cyclones, increased subsidence due to groundwater extraction, tectonics, as well as increasing socio-economic development in the coastal zone. This calls for a better understanding of the underlying physical processes and their interaction with the coast. Numerical models therefore play a crucial role in characterizing coastal hazards and assigning risks to them. Drawing firm conclusions about current and future changes in this environment is challenging because uncertainties are often large, such as coastal impacts of likely and unlikely (also called high-end) sea-level changes for the 21st century. Furthermore, studies addressing coastal impacts beyond this century pose new questions regarding the timescale of impacts and adaptation activity. This session invites submissions focusing on assessments and case studies at global, regional, and local scales of potential physical impacts of tsunamis, storm surge, sea-level rise, waves, and currents on coasts. We also welcome submissions on near-shore ocean dynamics and on the socio-economic impact of these hazards along the coast.

Orals: Tue, 16 Apr | Room 1.31/32

Chairpersons: Luke Jackson, Joern Behrens, Alexandra Toimil
10:45–10:50
10:50–11:00
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EGU24-7834
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Giovanni Scardino, Chiara Barile, Aruna Napayalage Nandasena, Tobia Lahbi, Enrico Muletto, Denovan Chauveau, Patrick Boyden, Sonia Bejarano, Alessio Rovere, Elisa Casella, Harold Kelly, Eric Mijts, and Giovanni Scicchitano

Extreme marine events determine different landform imprints, such as out-of-size deposits like coastal boulders with several tons in weight. These extreme marine events are usually connected to storms and tsunamis. Storms and tsunamis are characterized by a high-energy content, which is reflected in wave flow and wave height able to move the boulders. Several coastal boulders have been detected in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao (ABC) islands, overlying the marine terrace deposits that surround the seaward side of these islands. In this work, morpho-topographical surveys were performed on these coastal boulders in order to simulate the most probable events that caused their displacements. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and close-range photogrammetry were used to reconstruct the volume and shape of boulders with their immersive scenario. Volume and shape of coastal boulders have been used to estimate the energy content able to determine their displacement. Furthermore, boulder samples were collected in order to assess their density and to obtain chronological constraints of the extreme marine events by applying U/Th and radiocarbon dating. Numerical models in Delft3D were applied to simulate the scenarios that could be responsible for the boulder movements. The results showed that the biggest boulders are located on Bonaire Island, located in the eastern part of the ABC archipelago, and were influenced by higher energy content than the Aruba and Curacao islands. This energy content could be related to three possible scenarios simulated in Delft3D: 1) a tsunami scenario connected to Venezuela earthquakes, 2) a Hurricane scenario impacting from the western side of the ABC archipelago, 3) a combination of multiple events (tsunami and storms) that caused differential boulders movement in the past.

How to cite: Scardino, G., Barile, C., Nandasena, A. N., Lahbi, T., Muletto, E., Chauveau, D., Boyden, P., Bejarano, S., Rovere, A., Casella, E., Kelly, H., Mijts, E., and Scicchitano, G.: Coastal boulders related to extreme marine events impacting the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao islands, Leeward Antilles), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7834, 2024.

11:00–11:10
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EGU24-17440
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Katharina Seeger and Philip S. J. Minderhoud

Many river deltas and coastal lowlands in the world are densely populated and located in the Global South. Due to relative sea-level rise (rSLR), they face an increasing risk of drowning and flooding and thus require reliable impact and risk assessments of rSLR and flooding. As both sea-level rise (SLR) impact and flood inundation are closely related to land elevation, the quality of these assessments largely relies on vertical accuracy and proper datum referencing of the elevation data used. However, high-quality digital elevation models (DEMs) representing elevation at spatial resolutions and vertical accuracies at centimetre to decimetre scale are still not available or accessible for major parts of the Earth’s coasts, including densely populated Asian and African coastal lowlands or Small Island Development States. In these regions, global DEMs are often used even though they suffer from large vertical errors and artefacts, thereby impacting the quality of flood exposure assessments. While the accuracy of those global DEMs is extensively addressed both in their dataset documentation and literature, the relevance and proper vertical datum conversion from global geoid and ellipsoid models to local sea level is often still omitted in many applied studies; in part because the process is complicated in data-poor regions, where tide gauge records are often insufficient or outdated. Sea surface data based on satellite altimetry may serve as a substitute but the referencing of the land elevation and sea surface data to a common vertical datum includes several steps of datum conversion beforehand, which – if not performed properly – can introduce local errors of sea level to the land elevation up to several metres.

In this study, we test and present a workflow of globally consistent vertical datum conversion of elevation data to continuous local mean sea level by integrating globally available data on coastal elevation and sea surface. We apply our approach to recently published global DEMs and validate them for several key coastal lowlands such as the Ayeyarwady and Mekong Deltas, and show the improvement of the performance of global DEMs for impact assessments in data-poor regions. This proves the potential to improve impact assessments of SLR and flood exposure in coastal lowlands around the world where high-quality elevation information is not accessible.

How to cite: Seeger, K. and Minderhoud, P. S. J.: Accurate information on land elevation is key – Towards proper coastal flood risk assessment in data-sparse river deltas and coastal lowlands, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17440, 2024.

11:10–11:20
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EGU24-8336
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On-site presentation
Zuzanna Swirad, Agnieszka Herman, and Mateusz Moskalik

Observed and further predicted decreasing sea ice extent and increasing storminess over the North Atlantic are deemed to intensify coastal erosion along the shores of Western Svalbard. We investigate these relationships in Isbjornhamna, a bay with ~3 km shoreline located in north-western Hornsund fjord. The bay is delimited by Wilczekodden and Baranowskiodden headlands with 1.5 km opening to the main basin of the fjord where the depth is ~20-25 m. Mean significant wave height is 0.26 m and its 99th percentile is 1.5 m with highest values in autumn (mean of 0.4 m and 99th percentile of 1.91 m). A minor protrusion divides the bay into two basins. In the eastern part (Hansvika) a thick layer of glacier till deposits overlays metamorphic bedrock, while the western part (Krossvika) is cut in shists and paragneisses. Coastal cliffs are present at the outer parts of the bay, while gravel beach occupies its central 2 km section. There is an alongshore variability in beach morphology (width, slope) and grain size distribution. Glacier ice from calving Hansbreen often accumulates at the shore in summer and autumn months, while in winter/spring sea ice and ice foot are present. Polish Polar Station infrastructure is located on the shore which makes it directly exposed to storm waves.

We used repetitive Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle surveys combined with Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry to detect beach change over 5 years. In total 13 surveys were performed between July 2018 and August 2023 which allowed a separation of shorter- and longer-term changes in beach morphology. We observed processes such as formation and destruction of beach cusps, creation and disappearance of holes from melting growlers, shoreline retreat and across- and alongshore sediment transport. We calculated mean erosion rates, and analysed its spatial and temporal variability. Finally, the short-term measurements were compared to the decadal-scale erosion rates derived from orthophotographs. Relationships between beach erosion, wind wave conditions, and sea ice coverage were inspected to understand the role of changing climate on the rates of coastal change.

How to cite: Swirad, Z., Herman, A., and Moskalik, M.: Impact of increasing storminess and decreasing sea ice cover on high-latitude beach erosion (Hornsund, Svalbard), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8336, 2024.

11:20–11:30
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EGU24-19806
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Simon Thomas, Dani Jones, Talea Mayo, John Taylor, Henry Moss, Dave Munday, and Ivan D. Haigh

Climate change is expected to increase the potential intensity and size of tropical cyclones, with implications for storm surges and other damaging effects associated with them. However, quantifying the maximum possible storm surge and the sensitivity of storm surges to the properties of a tropical cyclone remains computationally expensive and complex.

In this study, we use machine learning to find the upper bounds of storm surges, considering the coastline near New Orleans as a case study. To do this, we make use of the well-established potential intensity (Emanuel, 1986) and the recently introduced potential size (Wang et al., 2022) upper bounds for tropical cyclones. These encapsulate the physical constraints tropical cyclones will encounter in a changing climate. We use the max-value entropy search acquisition function from Bayesian optimization (Wang et al., 2017) to efficiently find the largest storm surge at each point along the coast given those constraints. The individual storm surge estimates are produced by forcing a barotropic ocean circulation model ADCIRC (Luettich, 1991) with a set of idealized tropical cyclones, the characteristics of which are determined by the Bayesian optimization procedure. To extrapolate these findings into the future, we replicate our experiment under a high emission CMIP scenario (SSP-585) for the year 2100, using potential intensity and potential size as constraints, evaluating potential differences and implications brought on by changing climate conditions.

Our study provides another way of understanding how climate change can influence storm surges. It aims to forge a pathway to more precise, computationally efficient storm surge predictions in the context of climate change, addressing a pressing issue for coastal regions globally. Our novel approach could easily be transferred to other coastlines around the world, influenced by tropical cyclones. 

 

References:

Emanuel, K.A., 1986. An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 43(6), pp.585-605.

Wang, D., Lin, Y. and Chavas, D.R., 2022. Tropical cyclone potential size. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 79(11), pp.3001-3025.

Wang, Z. and Jegelka, S., 2017, July. Max-value entropy search for efficient Bayesian optimization. In International Conference on Machine Learning (pp. 3627-3635). PMLR.

Luettich, R.A., R.H. Birkhahn and J.J. Westerink, 1991, Application of ADCIRC-2DDI to Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina: A brief numerical modeling study, Contractors Report to the US Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station, August, 1991

How to cite: Thomas, S., Jones, D., Mayo, T., Taylor, J., Moss, H., Munday, D., and Haigh, I. D.: Finding the potential height of storm surges in a changing climate using Bayesian optimization, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19806, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19806, 2024.

11:30–11:40
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EGU24-17794
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Hector Lobeto, Alvaro Semedo, Melisa Menendez, Gil Lemos, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Ali Dastgheib, and Jean-Raymond Bidlot

Wave storms present a significant hazard to the coastal environment, particularly affecting the 10% of the population residing in low-lying coastal areas, as well as coastal zone infrastructure and developments. This study utilizes a ~40-year wave hindcast to conduct an analysis of wind-wave storminess along the worldwide coast (Lobeto et al., 2024). The main characteristics of wave storms, such as the associated wave height and direction, as well as the occurrence rate, duration and intensity, are analyzed. Additional climatic wave features including the relative importance of wind seas versus swells during wave storms are also explored. The combination of key storm features has led to a categorization of coastal regions based on their degree of wave storminess.

Results indicate Northwestern Europe and Southwestern South America to be the coastal regions experiencing the most severe storms, while the Yellow Sea, along with the South African and Namibian coastlines, are noted for their high frequency of storms. A global holistic analysis of the wave storminess reveals that, for example, the exposed shores of northwestern Europe experience over 10 storms annually, with mean significant wave heights exceeding 6 meters. A general latitudinal pattern in degree of wave storminess is observed, with the main exception of those coasts affected by wave storms generated by tropical cyclones. Accordingly, regions such as Iceland, Ireland, Scotland, Chile, and Australia exhibit the highest storminess levels, contrasting with lower levels observed in Indonesia, Papua-New Guinea, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Myanmar.

 

Lobeto, H, Semedo, A., Lemos, G., Dastgheib, A., Menendez, M., Ranasinghe, R., Bidlot, R. (2024). Global coastal wave storminess. Scientific Reports (in press).

How to cite: Lobeto, H., Semedo, A., Menendez, M., Lemos, G., Ranasinghe, R., Dastgheib, A., and Bidlot, J.-R.: Exploring the wave storminess along the global coastlines, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17794, 2024.

11:40–11:50
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EGU24-2106
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Tim Leijnse, Ap van Dongeren, Maarten van Ormondt, Jeroen Aerts, and Sanne Muis

Coastal communities worldwide are under threat of flooding due to multiple hazards (Mousavi et al., 2011). In some coastal areas, waves are the dominant driver of extreme water levels (Parker et al., 2023). However, for regional to continental scales coastal flooding assessments, waves are often not or only crudely accounted for, due to the high computational expense of wave resolving numerical models (e.g., XBeach; Roelvink et al., 2009).

Recently, Leijnse et al. (2021) has shown that it is possible to model waves in a fast reduced-complexity compound flood model such as SFINCS. However, boundary conditions for SFINCS are still derived from a computationally expensive numerical model like XBeach or are generated using 1D based (meta) models (e.g., Bertoncelj et al., 2021), that do not (fully) account for alongshore varying 2D effects. To be able to include dynamic wave runup and overtopping in a 2D fast flooding model, we need to derive nearshore infragravity wave conditions also in a fast way.

To overcome this challenge, we introduce an integrated model approach, where we couple a fast stationary wave spectral model (SnapWave) to the fast compound flood model SFINCS. Besides incident waves, the SnapWave model can also efficiently estimates nearshore infragravity wave conditions (Leijnse et al. 2024, in review). Together with a nearshore wave generating boundary condition (van Ormondt et al., 2023), our new integrated wave-resolving approach internally drives the flood model SFINCS with waves and can therefore assess the effects of waves on coastal flooding. The performance is validated for several laboratory tests and against XBeach simulations of van Ormondt et al. (2021).

References

Bertoncelj, V., Leijnse, T., Roelvink, F., Pearson, S., Bricker, J., Tissier, M., and van Dongeren, A.: Efficient and accurate modeling of wave-driven flooding on coral reef-lined coasts: Case Study of Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5418, 2021.

Leijnse, van Ormondt, Nederhoff, van Dongeren (2021). Modeling compound flooding in coastal systems using a computationally efficient reduced-physics solver: Including fluvial, pluvial, tidal, wind- and wave-driven processes. Coastal Engineering, 163, 103796. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103796

Leijnse, van Ormondt, van Dongeren, Aerts, Muis (2024, in review). Estimating nearshore infragravity wave conditions at large spatial scales. Frontiers in Marine Science.

Mousavi, Irish, Frey, Olivera, Edge (2011). Global warming and hurricanes: The potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding. Climatic Change, 104(3–4), 575–597. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9790-0

Parker, Erikson, Thomas, Nederhoff, Barnard, Muis (2023). Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast. Natural Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05939-6

Roelvink, Reniers, van Dongeren, van Thiel de Vries, McCall, Lescinski (2009). Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands. Coastal Engineering, 56(11–12), 1133–1152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.08.006

Van Ormondt, Roelvink, van Dongeren (2021). A Model-Derived Empirical Formulation for Wave Run-Up on Naturally Sloping Beaches. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 9(11), 1185. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9111185

Van Ormondt, Roelvink, van Dongeren (2023). Wave effects in a rapid compound flood model. 17th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting.

How to cite: Leijnse, T., van Dongeren, A., van Ormondt, M., Aerts, J., and Muis, S.: Integrating incident and infragravity wave effects in a fast compound flood model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2106, 2024.

11:50–12:00
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EGU24-9439
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Paulo Cabrita, Juan Montes Pérez, Enrico Duo, Riccardo Brunetta, and Paolo Ciavola

Extreme events can dramatically affect coastal areas, causing floods and shoreline erosion, consequently impacting infrastructures and, in the worst cases, resulting in life losses. These events are becoming frequent in regions along the northeastern Italian coastline, like the Emilia-Romagna region, significantly damaging the local economy. Here, regular coastal floods can impact infrastructures built on the beach or behind low-lying dunes, flooding through beach access paths. Therefore, predicting the impact of such extreme events and their appearance probability is important for coastal protection and the local economy.

Total Water Levels (TWLs) associated with extreme events can be characterised by different probability levels  (i.e. different return periods), influencing the flood extension. The definition of TWL in the literature depends on the chosen variables and the methods used to estimate it. In this work, to understand the influence of the different elements on TWL extreme values, combinations of different components, such as tide, wave set-up, run-up, calculated with Stockdon et al. (2006) equation (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12.005), between others, and two methods for Extreme Value Analysis (EVA), were used. The two methods used for the EVA were (1) the analysis of the individual time series of each component, combining each extreme value to obtain a TWL, and (2) the combination of the different elements' time series to build the TWL time series and the application of the EVA. The dataset combines modelled data for the water level (SHYFEM) and waves (WW3 model) and predicted tide levels provided by the Pytides2 library. The EVA was done by selecting return periods between 1 and 500 years with a declustering factor of 24 hours. Those were divided into three categories: high [return period: 1-20 yrs], medium [30-50 yrs] and low-frequency events [100-500 yrs]. For each method and frequency, three values of the TWL were obtained, giving 72 TWL combinations for each beach slope category (three slopes were tested for the run-up). The highest TWL values were obtained by adding the extreme values of astronomical tide, non-tidal residual, run-up and setup. Meanwhile, the lowest TWL calculated corresponds to the EVA applied to the combination of all the components' time series, which does not include the run-up.

An evaluation of flood extension with Lisflood-FP model (Bates et al., 2005; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.06.001) based on the different TWL values was made. The coast of Lido di Volano (Ferrara, Italy) was chosen as a case study site for a real-life assessment. For the flood model, storm events were reproduced assuming a triangular distribution for six hours, locating the starting and end points at the mean tide level. When compared with the real-life assessment, EVA method 1 demonstrated an overestimation for the same intensity of return period. EVA method 2 showed a good correlation, although an overestimation was observed when the run-up was included in the time series. Results demonstrated how the choice of EVA methods and water level contributions are crucial for predicting extreme events.

How to cite: Cabrita, P., Montes Pérez, J., Duo, E., Brunetta, R., and Ciavola, P.: Influence of different Total Water Level components on coastal flooding simulation: a case study “real-life” assessment, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9439, 2024.

12:00–12:10
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EGU24-19910
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On-site presentation
Carlo Brandini, Michele Bendoni, Francesca Caparrini, Andrea Cucco, Stefano Taddei, Massimo Perna, Alberto Ortolani, Iulia Anton, Roberta Paranunzio, and Salem Gharbia

Assessing the local effects of climate change on coastal areas, and in particular on coastal cities and settlements, is one of the greatest challenges facing our society, aimed at finding innovative and sustainable solutions to increase the resilience of coastal communities to adverse climatic actions. In particular, the use of climate data is crucial for defining a downscaling strategy that starts with climate services on a global scale and goes on to define impacts on a local scale. A comprehensive 'global to local' approach is fundamental to envisage coastal flooding problems.

Estimating the effects of CC in coastal cities  requires increasing the resolution of urban-scale models to unprecedented levels, to simulate land and coastal flooding conditions for various scenarios and with different return periods, also allowing for the evaluation of financial resilience strategies or ecosystem solutions for adaptation, following a true multidisciplinary approach and fostering, through participatory approaches, the public engagement of citizens, scientists and policy-makers, to identify solutions technically and socially acceptable.

We present the results of a full “global to local” study, to estimate the effects of coastal and riverine floods associated with extreme events at three coastal cities located in the Mediterranean Sea (Massa - Italy and Villanova - Spain) and the Bay of Biscay (Oarsoaldea - Spain), for different climate projections. The present work is part of the H2020-SCORE project and the analyzed cities are organized in a network of Coastal City Living Labs (CCLLs). We implemented a relocatable modeling chain which uses the data from a Regional Circulation Model (RCM) provided by EuroCordex as atmospheric forcing to three different models: i) a WaveWatchIII model for the simulation of wave forcing, ii) a SHYFEM model for the simulation of storm surges and sea-level dynamics iii) a LISFLOOD model for river discharge. The wave and sea-level models are implemented on unstructured grids with increasing resolution at the target cities, whereas the river discharge is determined considering the basin located upstream of the city. The simulations are performed for the evaluation, historical, RCP45 and RCP85 datasets associated with the CMIP5 experiment. Time series of wave height and water level close to the coast, and river discharge are employed in an extreme value analysis procedure to obtain values associated to specific return periods (namely 25, 100, 200 years). These values are employed to simulate floods due to the effect of storm surge and peak river discharge, by means of a hydraulic model built on a high-resolution digital elevation model of the coastal city, including information on buildings, coastal bathymetry and river cross sections. Preliminary results from the calculated hazard maps (water depth associated with a return period event) show interesting differences in the three analyzed coastal cities based on different exposure to coastal or riverine floods.

How to cite: Brandini, C., Bendoni, M., Caparrini, F., Cucco, A., Taddei, S., Perna, M., Ortolani, A., Anton, I., Paranunzio, R., and Gharbia, S.: Assessing the impacts of coastal and riverine urban floods in the future climate, results from the SCORE project., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19910, 2024.

12:10–12:20
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EGU24-20538
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ECS
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On-site presentation
The future of the Portuguese most vulnerable coastal areas under climate change – shoreline evolution and future extreme coastal flooding from downscaled bias corrected ensembles
(withdrawn)
Gil Lemos, Ivana Bosnic, Carlos Antunes, Michalis Vousdoukas, Lorenzo Mentaschi, and Pedro MM Soares
12:20–12:30
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EGU24-15450
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Laurine de Wolf, Peter Robinson, Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski

Flood damage caused by hurricanes is expected to rise globally due to climate and socio-economic change. Enhanced flood preparedness among the coastal population is required to reverse this trend. The decisions and actions taken by individuals are thought to be influenced by risk perceptions. This study investigates the determinants that shape flood risk perceptions, as well as the factors that drive flood risk misperceptions of coastal residents. We conducted a survey among 871 residents in flood-prone areas in Florida during a five-day period in which the respondents were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. This approach allows for assessing temporal dynamics in flood risk perceptions during an evolving hurricane threat. Among 255 of the same households, a follow-up survey was conducted to examine how flood risk perceptions vary after Hurricane Dorian failed to make landfall in Florida. Our results show that the flood experience and social norms have the most consistent relationship with flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, participants indicated that their level of worry regarding the dangers of flooding decreased after the near-miss of Hurricane Dorian, compared to their feelings of worry during the hurricane event. Based on our findings, we offer recommendations for improving flood risk communication policies

How to cite: de Wolf, L., Robinson, P., Botzen, W., Haer, T., Mol, J., and Czajkowski, J.: Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics and accuracy of risk perceptions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15450, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15450, 2024.

Posters on site: Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X4

Display time: Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–Tue, 16 Apr, 18:00
Chairpersons: Luke Jackson, Joern Behrens, Alexandra Toimil
X4.68
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EGU24-191
Hung-Chu Hsu

The need to stabilise and protect beaches and coastlines is important due to the increasing recreational activities in the coastal zone. In Taiwan, the coastal area is hit by about four typhoons a year, and the large waves caused by the typhoons often lead to coastal disasters and beach erosion. The beach could also be the buffer zones against the large wave attack and coastal flooding and erosion. Although the gravel beaches have a great advantage over the sandy beaches in terms of energy absorption capacity, this advantage disappears under the strong wave attack during the typhoon season in Taiwan. The gravel is carried offshore, and it is difficult to return to the beach under the swell wave. During the extreme wave induced in typhoon conditions associated with storm surge, it causes gravel beach closer to the steep nearshore zone, which may then be irreversibly evacuated downslope. The extreme waves bring breaking waves high up on the beach, creating the step-reflecting berms. Energy reflection can thus contribute to further downslope transport of gravel to depths from which it can no longer be recovered by fair-weather waves. The gravel beach can be very steep, accompanied by a typically narrow surf zone and an energetic shore break.

The FuAng coast in the south of Taiwan has suffered severe beach erosion since the construction of breakwaters in 2015. The strong reflection creates partial standing waves that scour the sediment at the toe of the beach. In addition, the mixed sand and gravel beach is washed offshore during storms and cannot be brought back to the beach by the weak swell wave. The aim of this paper is to analyse the erosion problem using the shoreline evolution from the satellite images, the variation of the beach profile in several sections and the volumetric variation of the bathymetry. An integrated coastal protection countermeasure using submerged detached breakwaters with artificial beach nourishment is proposed to mitigate the beach erosion problem. Physical experiment and numerical simulation are used to verify the proposed countermeasure. The results show that the proposed method can effectively protect the coast, prevent the beach erosion and form a salient to be a good buffer zone to prevent the wave impact.

How to cite: Hsu, H.-C.: Morphological variation of the beach under the construction of submerged breakwaters-a case study in Pintung coastal area of Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-191, 2024.

X4.69
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EGU24-1641
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ECS
Yu-wen Yang, Chia-Ming Lo, and Yu-Sen Lai

The seabed depth on the western coast of Taiwan is approximately between 20 to 50 meters, making it suitable for the installation of offshore wind turbines with a tripod foundation. Under the influence of water flow, the surrounding sand of the foundation can be eroded, forming scour holes and subsequently reducing the foundation's bearing capacity. The scour holes, influenced by the inherent angle of repose of the sand, undergo continuous erosion and collapse due to water flow, eventually reaching dynamic equilibrium. This study employs the Discrete Element Method (DEM) to conduct numerical simulations of scouring around the tripod foundation of offshore wind turbines. Different diameter particles are used to construct models of the offshore wind turbine tripod foundation and the sand. The dimensions of the seabed sand are 150 cm * 100 cm * 30 cm, with a particle diameter of 20 mm. This study observes the scouring of sand particles under different normal and shear stiffness conditions, resulting in various forms of scouring. The variations in scouring depth, length, and width under different normal and shear stiffness conditions will be discussed.

How to cite: Yang, Y., Lo, C.-M., and Lai, Y.-S.: Study on the influence of scour around tripod foundation for offshore wind turbine using Discrete Element Method, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1641, 2024.

X4.70
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EGU24-4365
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ECS
Rahul Kumar, Adam Switzer, Abang Nugraha, Raj Singh, Santanu Banerjee, Sunita Rath, Benjamin Horton, Siddharth Prizomwala, and Charles Bristow

The Bay of Bengal is a well-known hotspot for cyclone formation. Multiple recent cyclones, such as the Odisha Super Cyclone in 1999 and Cyclone Fani in 2019, along with a series of historical cyclones, have severely impacted the east coast of India, particularly the coastal regions of Odisha and West Bengal States. However, the existing cyclone record from the area is insufficient for multi-decadal recurrence analysis, rarely extending beyond last few decades. Hence, understanding and integrating historical, prehistorical, and geological cyclone records from the area can provide information on the social, economic, and environmental impacts of cyclones. This information will aid in planning response strategies and implementing policies to mitigate cyclone effects. This study investigates the geological record of cyclones buried in the prograded beach systems near Konark in Odisha over the past few hundred years. Shore-normal ground penetrating radar (GPR) reflection profiles were collected using the 250 and 500 MHz antennas of the pulseEKKO PRO GPR system. Sediment cores and excavated faces were analysed along the same GPR lines, and optically stimulated luminescence ages provide a chronological framework over the last 300 years. Processed GPR profiles exhibit a number of high-angle erosional surfaces. These surfaces were likely caused by erosion during severe cyclones in the region, spanning at least the last three centuries. Eight such erosional surfaces were identified from the GPR profile near Konark. Trench and core data from the swales also highlight several distinctive layers rich in heavy minerals, possibly the result of repetitive cyclones in the area. One prominent sand layer gives an interim age of 150 years, likely linked to a late 19th century washover event. The data presented in this study indicate that geological records can be used to build a long-term cyclone record for the area. Given the increasing population density in the region, a comprehensive cyclone record can provide valuable insights into the changes in frequency and intensity over the long term, which can be used to inform decision-making processes for coastal management and development.

How to cite: Kumar, R., Switzer, A., Nugraha, A., Singh, R., Banerjee, S., Rath, S., Horton, B., Prizomwala, S., and Bristow, C.: Geological Records of Past Cyclones Preserved in the Beach Ridge Systems on the East Coast of India, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4365, 2024.

X4.71
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EGU24-9556
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ECS
Rikza Nahar, Pedro Costa, Maarten Van Daele, Sue Dawson, Max Engel, Juliane Scheder, Thomas Goovaerts, Vanessa Heyvaert, and Marc De Batist

Offshore tsunami deposits have received considerably less attention than their onshore counterparts, despite the fact that they have a higher likelihood of being preserved in the sedimentary record, especially in sufficiently deep marine environments, below the storm wave base. Here we provide the first results from our study of Holocene tsunami deposits offshore the Shetland Islands. The region is characterized by an irregular coastline with fjords and numerous embayments, and relatively deep waters (up to 100 meters in depth),  providing a sheltered environment, and by an extensively studied and well-documented onshore record of tsunami deposits, which should facilitate correlations between onshore and offshore event deposits. 
Within the NORSEAT Project (North Sea Tsunami Deposits Offshore Shetland Island), we aim to identify and trace tsunami deposits offshore, thoroughly study their characteristics and extent, and determine whether the offshore record holds evidence of events additional to those already known from the onshore record (i.e. the Storrega tsunami and two events at ca. 5500 yr and ca. 1500 yr BP), which would offer new insights into recurrence intervals. Two surveys with RV Belgica have already been conducted, during which high-resolution geophysical data (multibeam bathymetry and backscatter, geoacoustic and seismic data) were collected, along with several vibrocores, in three embayment areas around the Shetland Islands.
Bathymetric data and sub-bottom profiles reveal a complex geomorphology, including a.o. elevated features, like bedrock exposures, and isolated depressions that function as sub-basins. The sedimentary sequences infilling these sub-basins are characterized by a complex stratigraphy and comprise several different sedimentary units. Along the west and east fjords of Sullom Voe, three distinct sub-environments (inner, middle, and outer voe) exhibit a diverse and well-preserved stratigraphy, potentially including a significant event deposit. A set of prominent strong reflectors at a depth of 1-2 m below the seafloor is interpreted as dynamic shallow marine deposits, which is supported by the results of the vibrocores retrieved at these sites. Out of the total 31 sediment cores taken, many contain coarser-grained layers sandwiched between finer-grained deposits. These coarser layers, often with sharp basal contacts and normal grading patterns, suggest temporary interruptions of the steady-state sedimentary regime and are interpreted as possible event deposits based on their contrasting textural and lithological characteristics.
In the next phase of our analysis, we aim to obtain the exact timing and detailed information about the depositional setting based on radiocarbon dating, grain size analysis, geochemical analysis, mineral distribution patterns, and the distribution of microfossils within the sediment cores, which should help us to build a robust tsunami event stratigraphy for the region, combined with planned sea-level reconstructions, assess their run-up heights based on the onshore-offshore connection and the fundamental research on sedimentary signatures and facies patterns of offshore tsunami deposits.

How to cite: Nahar, R., Costa, P., Van Daele, M., Dawson, S., Engel, M., Scheder, J., Goovaerts, T., Heyvaert, V., and De Batist, M.: Constructing an offshore tsunami event stratigraphy for the Shetland Islands, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9556, 2024.

X4.72
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EGU24-4910
Adam Switzer, Rahul Kumar, Chris Gouramanis, Charles Bristow, Timothy Shaw, Jankaew Kruawun, and Dominik Brill

This study examines ground penetrating radar (GPR) records of beach ridge stratigraphy as a proxy for reconstructing regional sea-level and tsunami histories in the tropics. We present topographically corrected GPR profiles on a prograded coast in Phra Thong Island, Thailand where we 1) identify downlap points marking the boundary between foreshore / beachface and upper shoreface facies and use this as past sea-level marker and 2) identify ‘cut and fill’ packages in the upper fill that we infer to be records of past erosion and recovery following repeated tsunami events. Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dates collected at locations slightly offset from the same profile line were incorporated to create the temporal record. The shore-normal GPR record shows ~0.82 m fall in the sea-level between 2659±139 years BP to 367±27 years BP that is consistent with other proxy based sea-level curves obtained in the region. The early part of the record (before ~2600 years) presents a period of rapid progradation and relatively stable sea level conditions. From ~2600 years BP to ~2200 years BP the record shows a steeper fall in sea level followed by a relatively stable to slightly falling phase between ~2200 years BP and ~550 years BP. Finally, for the seaward side, between ~550 years BP and ~350 years BP, the record indicates falling relative sea-level. The cut and fill packages suggest that Phra Thong has experienced 5 tsunami events in the last 2600 years including two events in close succession around 500 years ago that are recorded in the most landward part of the sequence.  This study confirms that the study of tropical beach ridge systems using GPR and OSL techniques can be highly effective for reconstructing regional sea-level trends and tsunami histories through the Common Era and beyond.

How to cite: Switzer, A., Kumar, R., Gouramanis, C., Bristow, C., Shaw, T., Kruawun, J., and Brill, D.: Ground Penetrating Radar of a beach ridge system on Phra Thong Island, Thailand reveals repeat Late-Holocene tsunami events on a background of falling sea level, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4910, 2024.

X4.73
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EGU24-17053
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ECS
Juliane Scheder, Sue Dawson, Thomas Goovaerts, Max Engel, Pedro Costa, Maarten Van Daele, Rikza Nahar, Marc De Batist, and Vanessa A.M. Heyvaert

High-resolution reconstructions of the relative sea-level (RSL) evolution are important for managing coastal-protection challenges and for hazard assessment. For the determination of palaeo-tsunami run-up heights in the Shetland Islands, United Kingdom, within the NORSEAT Project (Storegga and beyond – North Sea tsunami deposits offshore Shetland Islands), RSL reconstructions far beyond existing data are needed. Existing RSL data is limited to two time frames (ca. 7900–5990 cal BP and around 3500 cal BP) and include a large vertical error (approximately ±8 m around the time of the Storegga tsunami). More detailed Holocene RSL reconstructions shall be enabled by a combined modern training set of foraminifers and ostracods from three different voes of Shetlands largest island, Mainland. The training set serves as a basis for a RSL transfer function, which relates the elevation of surface samples to the modern microfaunal associations. This transfer function will be a valuable tool for high-resolution RSL reconstructions from the Holocene stratigraphic record around the Shetland Islands as shown by previous studies in Northern Germany.

Investigations of 44 surface samples, which were collected from three salt marshes and adjacent tidal flats (south Dales Voe, Dury Voe and north Dales Voe), are in progress. First results show highly diverse foraminifer and ostracod associations in the salt marsh and very low occurrence of microfauna in the very coarse parts of the tidal flat. Small areas of very muddy tidal flats suggest higher abundances than the latter. Aside from the investigation of the microfaunal distribution, analyses of environmental parameters like the grain-size distribution and the carbonate and organic matter content are still in progress. Multivariate statistics will determine the main influencing factor of the microfauna distribution between these environmental proxies and the elevation relative to mean sea level.

If the training set is feasible for a RSL transfer function, in a next step, it will be applied to Holocene deposits from offshore cores around Shetland that were conducted within the NORSEAT Project. The resulting new RSL reconstructions will enable more accurate determination of run ups of the currently identified palaeo-tsunamis (Storegga and two younger events). 

How to cite: Scheder, J., Dawson, S., Goovaerts, T., Engel, M., Costa, P., Van Daele, M., Nahar, R., De Batist, M., and Heyvaert, V. A. M.: A combined modern training set from three salt marshes and tidal flats of Mainland, Shetland Islands, as a tool for local relative sea-level reconstruction, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17053, 2024.

X4.74
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EGU24-6313
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ECS
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Bene Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal

Potential causes for shoreline retreat are diverse and very site-specific. These include inundation through absolute sea level rise or relative sea level changes caused by vertical land motions, as well as morphological processes (erosion or accretion). A widespread approximation to quantify and separate the influences of sea level changes and morphodynamics is to use the Bruun Rule. This simplified model has been interpreted in two ways, either by modelling the sediment redistribution along the beach profile, or by assuming a linear relationship where the ratio of sea level change and beach slope relates to the shoreline change. Here we show that the combination of several remote sensing observations from the last 20-30 years with sea level from radar altimetry, shorelines from optical satellite imagery and land elevation from LiDAR can be used to quantify the influence of sea level change and morphodynamics on shoreline changes.

In this case study for the barrier island of Terschelling (the Netherlands), we begin by assessing the uncertainties in the individual datasets. First, we compare ALES-retracked altimetry observations with two nearby tide gauges under different tidal corrections and estimate vertical land motion from GNSS height observations. For timeseries of cross-shore changes from satellite-derived shorelines, we show in a sensitivity analysis how different processing choices influence the outcome. Additionally, we intersect profiles of land elevation from a set of yearly coastal topobathymetry observations (JARKUS) with a horizontal plane at sea surface height in different combinations. We find that between 1992 and 2022 passive inundation accounts on average for -0.3 m/year of landward shoreline change at Terschelling, while the total estimated shoreline trend was on average -3.2 m/year. Finally, we will discuss possibilities and challenges to upscale the methodology to a global approach.

How to cite: Aschenneller, B., Rietbroek, R., and van der Wal, D.: Quantifying the impact of sea level and morphodynamics on shoreline changes with remote sensing observations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6313, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6313, 2024.

X4.75
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EGU24-6922
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ECS
Chenna Meng and Wei Xu

Global climate change is expected to increase the proportion of intense tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific. This study focuses on how factors, especially extreme events, may affect disaster losses. To address this issue, an event-based multivariate tropical cyclone risk assessment model, which employs Copula, generalized additive model, and undersampling extreme gradient boosting decision tree techniques, is developed to enhance the accuracy of disaster loss prediction. The results suggest that on Hainan Island, the rate of the affected population is positively correlated with maximum wind speed and maximum daily rainfall but negatively correlated with gross domestic product and elevation. The study also shows that the tropical cyclone risk in the cities in Hainan increases as the return periods expand, and each return period scenario shows a unique geospatial distribution of the tropical cyclone risk on Hainan Island, with higher risks in coastal and eastern regions. These results emphasize the importance of implementing effective disaster management strategies to mitigate the impact of severe tropical cyclones in the region.

How to cite: Meng, C. and Xu, W.: Quantitative Assessment of Affected Population Risk by Tropical Cyclones Using the Hybrid Modeling Combining GAM and XGBoost: A Case Study of Hainan Province, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6922, 2024.

X4.76
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EGU24-9395
Niall Quinn, Thomas Collings, Ignatius Pranantyo, Nicolas Bruneau, Hamish Wilkinson, Ivan Haigh, and Malcolm Haylock

Coastal flooding, often triggered by the convergence of high tides and intense storm surges and waves, poses a grave threat to global coastal communities, leading to widespread property damage and loss of life. Tropical cyclones (TCs) in particular have been responsible for the majority of the most devastating coastal flood events in the recent years, causing billions of dollars in damages over the last decade within the US alone. Further, the compounded impact of rising sea levels, fuelled by a warming climate, along with projected population growth and continued development in the flood zone, is widely expected to increase these risks to coastal communities in the future. 
It is essential to many end users, from environmental mangers to (re)insurers, to accurately characterize the risk of coastal flooding over large, often national scales, both under current and highly uncertain, future climate conditions. This poses a number of challenges. For instance, in many of the most heavily impacted regions of the world, the majority of the coastal flooding stems from severe TC induced storm surge events. The rarity of these events means that the historical record alone is insufficient to truly capture the current risk, let alone represent the vast range of potential future climate conditions and their subsequent impacts upon TC-induced flood risk. To provide the information required catastrophe model frameworks that can efficiently represent the full range of potential flooding events, from hazard generation through to financial impacts, and how their frequencies might change through time, are essential. 
This research introduces a comprehensive TC-induced storm surge catastrophe modelling framework. An extensive catalogue of synthetic TC wind and pressure fields, under current and future climate forcing, is utilised. The SCHISM model suite is used to numerically model surge and waves to generate boundary conditions to the reduced physical solver, SFINCS, which is used to model the nearshore and overland inundation processes. Using an example US implementation, novel approaches developed to enable the efficient representation of approximately 2.5 million unique TC events are discussed, and preliminary results presented. The proposed catastrophe model framework offers a valuable tool for those interested in coastal flooding, enabling a robust evaluation of TC-induced risk under any climate scenario, over extensive geographical domains.   

How to cite: Quinn, N., Collings, T., Pranantyo, I., Bruneau, N., Wilkinson, H., Haigh, I., and Haylock, M.: Tropical cyclone induced coastal flooding under current and future climates: A novel model framework for continental scale applications. , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9395, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9395, 2024.

X4.77
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EGU24-10979
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ECS
Gregor Rink, Gordon Bromley, and Eugene Farrell

Sea cliffs comprise approximately 80% of the world’s coasts. Rapidly retreating cliffs are a widespread problem that threatens property, transport infrastructure and public safety. Cliff retreat rates depend on highly localised characteristics of the cliff itself, as well as on the land behind the cliff and the intertidal and marine environments in front of it. In addition to these physical properties, retreat rates are also influenced by the methodology applied. Traditionally, estimates of coastal cliff top retreat have been based on historic map and arial photograph (century scale) analyses that provide long-term rates but fail to provide information in short-term processes driving coastal evolution. Newer datasets from satellite imagery and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV’s) are being coupled with new techniques like Structure-from-Motion (SfM) to dismantle cliff top and cliff face dynamics at shorter timescales (weeks to months). It is now accepted that estimates of cliff retreat rates can differ substantially when calculated from cliff top versus cliff face analyses, usually finding that cliff-top retreat rates are higher than cliff-face retreat rates.

This study combines historical data (maps and aerial photographs 1842 – 2000) with contemporary UAV imagery (2019 – 2023) to analyse cliff top and cliff face dynamics of a 250 m wide coastal drumlin at Silverstrand in Galway Bay on the west coast of Ireland. The cliff top changes were analysed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) in the ESRI ArcGIS Desktop platform. Cliff face change detection was done using a Multiscale Model to Model Cloud Comparison (M3C2) in CloudCompare. By using these different types of data and methods, we were able to calculate retreat rates of the cliff top and the cliff face independently. The average cliff top retreat rate between 1842 and 2023 (181 years) was estimated to be 0.14 +/- 0.02 m/year. The average cliff face retreat between 2019 and 2023 (4.45 years) was estimated to be 0.08 +/- 0.02 m/year. For both, cliff top and cliff face retreat rate, we found that the long-term retreat rates are lower than the short-term retreat rates and that the western part of the cliff experiences higher erosion than its eastern counterpart. This variability might reflect multiple erosional processes and differences in magnitude-frequencies of erosional events at the cliff top and cliff face, or even the application of various methods and datasets.

Our results are consistent with other soft rock cliffs in Ireland and globally in similar settings. Nonetheless, more detailed observations using shorter timescales and monitoring intervals are warranted to identify and quantify the rates, patterns, timing and magnitude- frequency of cliff retreat phenomena.

How to cite: Rink, G., Bromley, G., and Farrell, E.: Measuring cliff top and cliff face retreat rates of a coastal drumlin using Structure-from-Motion in Galway Bay, Ireland, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10979, 2024.

X4.78
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EGU24-15411
Stefano C. Fabbri, Pierre Sabatier, Raphaël Paris, Simon Falvard, Nathalie Feuillet, Amélie Lothoz, Guillaume St-Onge, Audrey Gailler, Louise Cordrie, Fabien Arnaud, Maude Biguenet, Thibault Coulombier, Saptarshee Mitra, and Eric Chaumillon

We examined sedimentary records in a coastal lagoon on Saint Martin Island in the Lesser Antilles to identify and characterize extreme-wave events (EWEs), such as hurricanes and tsunamis. Employing a comprehensive approach involving sedimentological, geochemical, and radiocarbon dating analyses, complemented by X-ray computed microtomography (micro-CT) for examining sediment fabrics, we applied this multiproxy method to three oriented short sediment cores along a transect. This allowed us to identify sediment layers linked to both tsunami- and hurricane-induced EWEs. Five out of the seven EWEs were identified as paleo-tsunamis through their geochemical, sedimentary, and structural signatures. These five paleotsunamis were successfully dated over the last 3500 years, including the well-documented Pre-Columbian tsunami at approximately 1400 yrs CE and the transatlantic Lisbon tsunami at 1755 CE. This suggests a tentative local tsunami chronology of five well-documented events over the last 3500 years with a recurrence interval of 400 to 500 years.

However, the most recent EWE corresponded to the powerful Category 5 Hurricane Irma in 2017. Over the last 150 years, another 14 less intense hurricanes impacted the island, leaving no sediment imprints in the lagoon. This finding is in line with most recent publications showing that tropical storm intensification rates have already changed as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the globe (Garner, 2023).

Furthermore, micro-CT-based sediment analysis provided a deeper understanding of the relationship between sediment fabric and tsunami wave dynamics. Therefore, we used the deposits of the Pre-Columbian tsunami and compared paleo-flow directions from micro-CT-derived fabric patterns to those from numerical tsunami models. The results that best explain the Pre-Columbian tsunami deposit emplacement are in line with a Mw 8.5–8.7 megathrust earthquake source located on the subduction interface at the Puerto Rico Trench, north of Anegada Island (Cordrie et al., 2022). Ultimately, integrating deposits of EWEs with numerical models is pivotal for devising effective hazard mitigation strategies tailored to vulnerable coastal communities.

Cordrie, L., Feuillet, N., Gailler, A., Biguenet, M., Chaumillon, E., Sabatier, P., 2022. A Megathrust earthquake as source of a Pre-Colombian tsunami in Lesser Antilles: Insight from sediment deposits and tsunami modeling. Earth Sci Rev 228, 104018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104018

Garner, A.J. Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates. Sci Rep 13, 16299 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y

How to cite: Fabbri, S. C., Sabatier, P., Paris, R., Falvard, S., Feuillet, N., Lothoz, A., St-Onge, G., Gailler, A., Cordrie, L., Arnaud, F., Biguenet, M., Coulombier, T., Mitra, S., and Chaumillon, E.: Linking sedimentary imprints of storms and tsunamis with numerical wave modeling: A case from a coastal lagoon in the Lesser Antilles (Saint Martin), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15411, 2024.

X4.79
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EGU24-19322
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ECS
Afroja Parvin, Julian Koellermeier, and Giovanni Samaey

Suspended and bedload sediment transport in shallow water environments is a critical factor influencing coastal morphology, ecosystem health, and infrastructure stability.  We present a new model for suspended and bedload sediment transport in shallow flows that takes into account vertically varying velocity profiles. We achieve this by using the recently developed shallow water moment model (SWME). The SWME employs a unified modeling framework that incorporates a polynomial expansion of the velocity profile in vertical direction, which represents a paradigm shift compared to the standard assumption of constant velocity profiles. The expansion coefficient equations constitute a hierarchical PDE system that improves accuracy when more equations are considered. The SWME model is then augmented by equations governing suspended sediment concentration and bedload transport. In this talk, we discuss the assumptions and general derivation of the 1D model, along with the theoretical analysis and the extension of this model to complex fluid phenomena.

 

How to cite: Parvin, A., Koellermeier, J., and Samaey, G.: Shallow water moment model for sediment transportation in coastal area, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19322, 2024.

X4.80
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EGU24-8103
Gaetano Sabato, Giovanni Scardino, Alok Kushabaha, Giulia Casagrande, Marco Chirivì, Giorgio Fontolan, Saverio Fracaros, Antonio Luparelli, Sebastian Spadotto, and Giovanni Scicchitano

Advances in machine learning and deep learning approaches have drawn substantial interest across diverse research domains, including environmental studies. These innovative techniques have transformed the approaches to measuring marine parameters by facilitating automated and remote data collection. This study focuses on the implementation of a deep learning model to automatically assess tide and surge, aiming for precise outcomes through the analysis of surveillance camera imagery.

Utilizing the Inception v3 structure, the deep learning model was applied to predict tide and storm surge from surveillance cameras strategically positioned in two distinct coastal regions, namely Santa Lucia in southeastern Sicily and Lignano Sabbiadoro in Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy. The deep learning model is based on classification methods to assign a value of water level to a given frame. This approach is particularly advantageous in scenarios where traditional tide sensors face inaccessibility or are distant from measurement points, especially during extreme events demanding accurate surge measurements. The dataset used for the training and validation of the deep learning model covers the entire tide values that could be observed in the study areas. Predictions of the deep learning model were compared with tide gauge values in order to assess the system accuracy.

The conducted experiments demonstrate the efficiency of the model in remotely and effectively measuring tide and surge, achieving an accuracy exceeding 90% while maintaining a loss value below 1 for the deep learning model. These findings underscore its potential to fill the data collection gap in challenging coastal environments, offering valuable insights for coastal management and hazard assessment. This study makes an important contribution to the rapidly growing field of remote sensing and machine learning applications in environmental monitoring, facilitating greater comprehension and decision-making in coastal areas.

How to cite: Sabato, G., Scardino, G., Kushabaha, A., Casagrande, G., Chirivì, M., Fontolan, G., Fracaros, S., Luparelli, A., Spadotto, S., and Scicchitano, G.: A deep learning method to automatically measure tide and surge in coastal areas, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8103, 2024.

X4.81
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EGU24-8644
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ECS
The changing statistics of storm surges across the Northwest of Ireland in a warming world.
(withdrawn after no-show)
Tasneem Ahmed, Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrochhi, Michele Bendoni, Leo Creedon, Carlo Brandini, Stefano Taddei, and Salem S Gharbia
X4.82
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EGU24-8125
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ECS
Alok Kushabaha, Giovanni Scardino, Gaetano Sabato, Giovanni Scicchitano, and Alfio Marco Borzi

Several cyclogenesis processes affect the Mediterranean Sea, causing significant impacts along its coastline. This study focuses on mapping the effects of cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea, particularly Mediterranean hurricanes, which cause severe damage to coastal areas. Advanced remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques are used to analyse climatic data and observe geomorphological evidence, such as flooding, coastal erosion, landslides, alluvial flooding and debris flow. By integrating climate features and geomorphological evidence, this research establishes a connection with the occurrence of Mediterranean cyclones. The study specifically examines the south-eastern coasts of Sicily, where Mediterranean Hurricanes have caused extensive damages, including flooding, erosion, and storm surges. Pre and post-storm morpho-topographical surveys were conducted to assess coastal flooding and erosion through aerial photogrammetry and Terrestrial Laser Scanner surveys. The collected data were stored in a geodatabase, allowing for the display of climate features and geomorphological evidence. Additionally, the development of an open-source Web-GIS platform integrated with the geodatabase can facilitate the dissemination of geographic information to stakeholders and researchers, promoting collaboration and informed decision-making. This study contributes to a better understanding of Mediterranean cyclones, enabling the development of effective coastal management strategies to mitigate the challenges posed by Mediterranean Hurricanes.

How to cite: Kushabaha, A., Scardino, G., Sabato, G., Scicchitano, G., and Borzi, A. M.: Integration of relational geodatabase in a web-GIS platform for Mapping the effects of Mediterranean Cyclone., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8125, 2024.

X4.83
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EGU24-1128
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ECS
Nabanita Sarkar, Angela Rizzo, Vittoria Vandelli, and Mauro Soldati

Coastal areas are primarily exposed to a range of coastal hazards, including both climate- and marine-related processes, due to their close proximity to the sea. In this context, the Maltese Islands, located in the centre of the Mediterranean Sea, are prone to be affected by various coastal risks in the form of erosion, flooding, landslides, storm surges and, on a longer-term, permanent inundation as a consequence of the ongoing sea level rise. These Islands have evolved over time from a complex interplay of marine, morphodynamic and tectonic processes resulting in highly diversified coastal landforms and scenic landscapes.

Considering primary and secondary data sources, this study investigates the coastal vulnerability of the north-west coast Malta with respect to a series of hazardous processes by applying an index-based approach supported by extensive field surveys. This stretch of coastal area attracts a large number of visitors each year, raising serious concerns about coastal vulnerability, thus, challenging sustainable management of coastal touristic assets.  In the first phase of this research, a set of indicators pertaining to the local land use, anthropogenic, and natural assets were used in order to estimate the level of coastal exposure. The following phase entailed the zonation of the areas exposed to rock falls, and storm surges, erosion and sea level rise, which enabled us to estimate the overall coastal vulnerability. The results show that the bay areas of the north-west coast of Malta dominated by tourist activities can be considered as the most vulnerable zones and targets of different climate- and marine-related impacts. These are the areas where it would be challenging to prevent future impacts if no adaptation and sustainable management strategies are taken into account.

How to cite: Sarkar, N., Rizzo, A., Vandelli, V., and Soldati, M.: Coastal vulnerability assessment in the central Mediterranean area: A case study of the Maltese coast, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1128, 2024.

X4.84
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EGU24-11851
Inga Monika Koszalka, Matteo Masini, Dimitrios Antivachis, Kristofer Döös, Agnes Karlsson, Bengt Karlsson, Lars Axell, and Lars Arneborg

The island of Gotland located in the middle of the Baltic Sea is Sweden's largest island, and also a county and municipality with the population of about 60,000, employed mainly in agriculture and tourist sectors. Gotland is a very popular domestic tourist destination for mainland Swedes, reaching nearly 2 million ferry and plane passengers per year. Gotland experiences limited capacity in groundwater reservoirs combined with increased demand during the warm season when tourists visits peak leading to recurring water stress. Desalination of drinking water from the Baltic Sea is a promising alternative to complement municipal water supply. The operation of the two major desalination treatment plants becomes however disturbed by compound hazards due to extreme sea weather events (marine heatwaves, strong upwelling events) and related hydro-sedimentary and biological processes (macro- and microalgae blooms) that are predicted to intensify under the climate change. Developing an apt forecasting system for this "multi-hazard" to inform sustainable management of Gotland's water resources becomes thus a priority and is of broader relevance to other regions in Sweden.

The ALGOTL project, funded by the Swedish research council for sustainable development (FORMAS), is a collaboration between Stockholm University, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and Region Gotland to develop a novel forecast framework for natural hazard impacts on management of water resources, both short term (early warning) and long term (climate scenarios). The project aims at development of Lagrangian- and risk modelling tools based on the operational ocean state forecast at SMHI. Our stakeholders on Gotland will provide input on adverse impacts, information required for management, and feedback on the forecast framework during the project.

This contribution will summarize results from observational and modelling analysis of the oceanographic, hydrological and biological conditions due to the Hans storm event in August 2023 that led to the disturbance in operation of the desalination plants on Gotland, located at the Herrvik (eastern side) and Kvarnåkershamn (western side of the island). The storm triggered an upwelling event leading to sea temperature changes of 10 K (prompting the change from summer to winter operational mode) and high vertical and horizontal velocities and associated excessive transport of sediment and biological (algae) material disrupting the filtering process. We will also show results from Lagrangian backtracking of the source waters reaching the desalination plants and present prospects for developing of a forecast system for related events in the future.

More information about the ALGOTL project: https://www.su.se/english/research/research-projects/algotl-forecast-framework-for-algae-blooms-to-secure-water-supply-on-gotland

How to cite: Koszalka, I. M., Masini, M., Antivachis, D., Döös, K., Karlsson, A., Karlsson, B., Axell, L., and Arneborg, L.: Analysis and modelling of compound hazards to the desalination plants on Gotland: The Hans Storm 2023 event, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11851, 2024.