EOS1.7 | Challenges and opportunities in risk communication related to natural and anthropogenic hazards
Challenges and opportunities in risk communication related to natural and anthropogenic hazards
Co-organized by GM12
Convener: Maria Vittoria Gargiulo | Co-conveners: Raffaella Russo, Maike Vollmer, Solmaz Mohadjer, Stefano Solarino
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 1.15/16
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X1
Posters virtual
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X1
Orals |
Fri, 14:00
Wed, 16:15
Wed, 14:00
The effectiveness of disaster risk mitigation actions depends not only on the implementation of specific measures such as safety protocols, but also on how well at-risk communities accept, react and contribute to, or care about them. Involving the at-risk community in the studies of hazards and risks can result in an increased awareness and enhanced knowledge on appropriate mitigation and preparedness options. In this sense, risk communication and citizen science are becoming increasingly significant. Scientists and experts play a key role in establishing confidence in the public opinion and in improving the communication efforts of institutions in charge of the public communication. While the risk communication field offers many best practices that can be adapted by and reproduced in different communities, it also faces many challenges, including reaching the right audiences and conveying the right messages .

This session is dedicated to scientists, science communicators and practitioners with a particular focus on Early Career Scientists. The aim of the session is to create a space for discussion of best practices and theoretical approaches when practicing risk communication or citizen science. We welcome submissions exploring different approaches for producing and sharing risk information related to natural and/or anthropogenic hazards considering key factors affecting risk communication (e.g., stakeholder engagement, cultural awareness and sensitivity, the temporality of risk communication, and uncertainties). Of special interest are contributions addressing the dynamics of risk communication from hazard preparation and response to crisis recovery. Moreover, we encourage contributions on how to evaluate the impacts of such efforts and how to include science communication in a scientist’s daily activities.

Orals: Fri, 19 Apr | Room 1.15/16

Chairpersons: Maria Vittoria Gargiulo, Raffaella Russo, Solmaz Mohadjer
14:00–14:02
14:02–14:12
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EGU24-9507
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Virtual presentation
A. Rita Carrasco and Ana Matias

The Kit Salt Gardens is an educational project on coastal geosciences composed of a box containing bricks and miniatures that exemplify the natural elements of the tidal wetlands (such as sediment, water, animal species, and typical vegetation). It allows hands-on activities related to wetlands ecogeomorphology and climate change. The Kit was developed for primary school students, assisted by a teacher/monitor, and the progression in the Kit is made in two levels. In the first level, for children aged 6 to 8 years old, concepts such as habitat composition, sediment, plants, and the effect of the tide on the environment, are explored. The Ria Formosa wetland's diversity inspired the natural elements that compose the Kit. Through storytelling, a narrative is created with various characters (animals) that inhabit the salt marshes (Alex the crab, Sam the seahorse, Cris the flamingo, and Manu the lost turtle) and the iconic plants (Zostera noltei, Spartina maritima, and Limoniastrum monopetalum). The first level guides the children through various games (e.g., building games, matching games) to the construction of the habitat, thus explaining how the marshes are formed. In the second level, for children aged 9 to 10, participants learn about climate change, sea-level rise, and climate scenarios (using climate cards). Students are invited to understand the physical (geomorphological) and ecological processes that regulate the formation of these environments, by constructing wetlands zones, while understanding the main threats (e.g., sediment supply, sea-level rise).

The aim is to promote children's literacy on coastal dynamics as they “build their marsh”, answer quizzes, and play with images and dices. The teacher/monitor can use the kit for other classroom activities. They can use it, for example, to explore the setting and characters for a new story, to serve as an introduction to a field trip to the coastal zone, or as an orientation exercise for group work. The handling of the Kit by the students is intended to generate critical thinking and creativity while empowering them with knowledge about the world around them.

 

Acknowledgments

The project was funded in 2022 by the British Society of Geomorphology and Wiley. A.R. Carrasco by the contract CEECINST/00052/2021/CP2792/CT0007 funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT). The authors also recognize the support of national funds through FCT, under project LA/P/0069/2020, granted to the Associate Laboratory ARNET, and project UID/00350/2020 granted to CIMA (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/00350/2020).

How to cite: Carrasco, A. R. and Matias, A.: Exploring the wonders of wetlands with the Kit ‘Salt Gardens’, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9507, 2024.

14:12–14:22
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EGU24-11197
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
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Louise Le Vagueresse and Maud Devès

Scientists working on natural hazards and associated risks play a key role in population information with respect to disaster risk reduction. But they are not always familiar with the socio-cultural and informational contexts of at-risk communities, and identifying the right local partners and intermediaries can be a tricky and time consuming process. Sendai Framework and recent studies target school teachers as relevant mediators for disaster risk education and scientific information. Here, we document and analyze the experience of school teachers’ during the 2018 seismo-volcanic crisis in Mayotte, France and discuss the benefits and challenges of taking them as partners to better inform at-risk communities during and prior to a crisis. Mayotte case study is interesting because it corresponds to a multi-cultural context. It is an oversea French department characterized by important socio-cultural differences from mainland France, multilingualism, low levels of literacy and precarious living conditions (see Roinsard, 2014). Following the start of an unexpected seismic crisis in May 2018, submarine volcanism was discovered between 5 and 50 km off the east coast of this island where, in living memory, there had never been any volcanic activity. However, this discovery occurred in May 2019, a year after the first earthquakes worried the communities. The first months of the crisis were marked by major scientific uncertainties and a perceived lack of information from the inhabitants’ perspective (Fallou et al., 2020; Devès et al., 2022). Our study is built on 14 semi-directive interviews with school teachers and 18 focus groups with schoolers. This comprehensive set of qualitative data allows us to discuss the role of school teachers as intermediaries to spread information between scientists and at-risk communities, prior and following natural events.

How to cite: Le Vagueresse, L. and Devès, M.: School teachers as partners in a disaster risk reduction context: challenges and benefits highlighted by Mayotte case study in France, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11197, 2024.

14:22–14:32
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EGU24-20521
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Michail-Christos Tsoutsos and Vassilios Vescoukis

Climate change constitute one of the main challenges mankind has to come up against, where of crucial importance is the undertaking of initiatives collaboratively by the countries in order to counter the consequences of climate crisis. The deterioration of the environmental conditions due to the alteration of climatic conditions has increased the likelihood of occurrence of various natural hazards (e.g. floods, storms, landslides, drought events, wildfires) from 2000 to 2019 as specified by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), which reinforced the multi-hazard profile of the hazard-prone areas. Greece has been affected by several disastrous events as stated in multiple data sources of natural hazards, where wildfires, floods and earthquakes have induced detrimental effects. However, there is a plethora both of hazard interrelations and types of hazards interactions that can exacerbate the implications caused by natural hazards. On the other hand, education and communication of hazard cascades will contribute substantially to the reduction of disasters, therefore it is indispensable dissemination activities of multi-hazard approaches to be implemented. The purpose of this research is to propose a service that leverages historical geospatial data or spatially referenced data, based on the literature of domino/triggering effect, in order to promote and assist preparedness actions for disaster chains in the context of education.

 

Acknowledgments

Authors acknowledge the financial support provided by the Research Committee of the National Technical University of Athens (N.T.U.A.), which awarded Michail-Christos Tsoutsos with a Doctoral Scholarship and, thus, enabled him to carry out the research required for this kind of study. Grant number: 65/219100.

How to cite: Tsoutsos, M.-C. and Vescoukis, V.: Cascade effects of Greece using historical data of natural hazards: An operational tool in education, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20521, 2024.

14:32–14:42
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EGU24-21551
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On-site presentation
Gemma Musacchio, Angela Saraò, Susanna Falsaperla, and Anna Scolobig

Understanding what are the main characteristics of seismic risk communication
practice and research is essential to depict best practices and gaps that can provide
insights for future improvements. Towards this task, and focussing on the European
framework, a scoping review based on the analysis of scholarly literature databases,
was conducted. It reveals that, over the last 20 years, seismic risk communication has
been a research topic of increasing interest, trying to keep up with current risk
communication trends and yet mostly under-researched. Recommendations from
international disaster risk reduction frameworks show up also through the increasing
interest on the communication of seismic risk in Europe. However, it appears to be
practiced in an uneven way in the different European countries and not necessarily
linked to the level of hazard.
It mostly occurs in the pre-crisis phase of the disaster lifecycle when risk awareness
and capacity to cope with hazards can be effectively built.
An increasingly proactive, with an emphasis on a bottom-up strategy that relies on
youths to build the resilience of future generations is another key issue of the
communication of seismic risk in the last 2 decades.
Social media have had an increasing impact to provide timely and actionable
information in times of crisis and to engage citizens, in the pre-crisis and post-disaster
phase.
Our data highlights that the future agenda for the communication of seismic risk
should be set on building trust with the public, tailoring communication to its needs.
Actions are even more necessary to curb the spread of fake news and its negative
impact on disaster management and build the communication practices on a
theoretical background

How to cite: Musacchio, G., Saraò, A., Falsaperla, S., and Scolobig, A.: Two decades of seismic risk communication in Europe: where did we head to?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21551, 2024.

14:42–14:52
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EGU24-8414
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Marina Mantini, Nicola Rebora, Lara Polo, Margherita Andreaggi, Antonio Gioia, Chiara Franciosi, Luca Ferraris, and Marina Morando

Risks know no borders, as climate change taught us in the last years,. Also, risks increased in frequency and intensity. Europe is experiencing multiple types of disasters that affect communities in different countries and it requires a coordinated, cross-country, inclusive, and international response. Consequently, communication and awareness campaigns have been increasing proportionally. However, it is difficult to know what different countries are carrying on, there is no database aimed to systematically collect and categorize practices implemented across Europe.  

To increase preparedness and improve the cooperation inter-states and inter European citizens, it is essential to assess communication initiatives across Europe and to build a common culture of risk preparedness. Obviously, it is necessary to maintain the differences and specificities of different communities and cultural contexts.  

The challenge is indeed to communicate something that could happen to anybody, but in a completely different context from a social, linguistic, economic and cultural point of view.  

 This research study, realised as part of preparEU European flagship initiative, has the aim to collect the risk communication good practices already existent in Europe, finding gaps, needs and challenges. It’s a preliminary study essential to find an effective and participatory way to enhance the culture of risk prevention amongst the EU, putting in common knowledge and experiences across different territories.  

 The study involved 25 EU Civil Protection Mechanism participant states through desk research, high level interviews and a questionnaire directed to the Institutions and experts committed to risk preparedness and communication. Useful data and patterns have been collected until now but also questions and challenges about the main concepts and tools that should be put in place to raise a common European preparedness culture, that focuses on a community response and solidarity, respecting at the same time differences and specificities.  

How to cite: Mantini, M., Rebora, N., Polo, L., Andreaggi, M., Gioia, A., Franciosi, C., Ferraris, L., and Morando, M.: Risk Communication as part of European civil protection mechanism. Roadmap basis from a national to a European Union Civil Protection communication and awareness.  , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8414, 2024.

14:52–15:02
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EGU24-8051
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Tommaso Lazzarin, Albert S. Chen, and Daniele Viero

A proper evaluation and an effective communication of flood risk are important aspects to reinforce flood preparedness and to reduce the impacts of future flooding events. In particular, communicating the expected flood risk to different categories of people (i.e., non-technician, of different age and formation) is recognized as a real challenge.

Flood maps typically present flood scenarios using spatially distributed flow depth and velocity, which are unable to convey intelligible information on the associated hazard to the general public. Similarly, hazard indexes meant to express flood hazard by combining flow depth and velocity have important intrinsic limitations. These indexes were developed to identify the critical thresholds for human instability in floodwaters, based on experimental data or conceptual models. Accordingly, they can be used to detect flood-prone areas where pedestrians cannot cope with floodwaters, but they are unable to rate intermediate hazard degrees correctly. This is because a linear relationship between flow velocity and hazard is assumed, which is an oversimplification given that human stability in floodwaters is a matter of forces, which depends on the square of the velocity.

We propose using the concept of loss probability of people in floodwaters, LP, to pursue an intelligible and effective communication of flood risk. Defined as the probability of a pedestrian to be swept away by floodwaters, LP accounts for both hazard and vulnerability in a physics-based and data-consistent fashion. Its spatial distribution can be easily computed as a function of water depth and velocity.

A real case study application highlights that, in slow shallow waters, hazard indexes overestimate the risk perception, whereas LP correctly predicts low risk levels. On the other hand, LP identifies high risk conditions in slow and deep waters, for which hazard indexes generally provide a severe underestimation of the real danger.

How to cite: Lazzarin, T., Chen, A. S., and Viero, D.: Improving flood risk evaluation and communication by mapping the loss probability of pedestrians, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8051, 2024.

15:02–15:12
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EGU24-19048
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Lydia Cumiskey, Dug Cubie, Janne Parviainen, Sukaina Bharwani, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Benjamin Hofbauer, and Max Steinhausen

Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) practitioners are increasingly encouraged to strengthen communication and engagement with multiple organisations and citizens to support inclusive and multi-level risk governance (Renn and Schweizer, 2009; Newig and Fritsch, 2009). Knowledge co-production processes and tools can support engagement across a wide range of stakeholders across the science-society interface, representing a diversity of disciplines, sectors, skills and knowledge types (Norstrom et al. 2020; Daniels et al. 2020). Such processes, encourage experimentation, creativity and learning in novel ways to help break down disciplinary barriers, encourage open dialogue, build trust and guide processes towards transdisciplinary solutions.

Creating spaces for play has been recognised to encourage, stimulate and facilitate creativity in organisational settings by creating a diversion and temporarily suspending obligations and pressures (Mainemelis and Ronson, 2006). Here we present the use of a Creative Play approach within knowledge co-production workshops for Real World Labs Risk-Tandem training as part of the Directed project (EU Horizon) and a workshop exploring risk communication strategies in Cork city as part of the Promoting Resilient Cities through Community Participation and Communication of Climate and Disaster Risks (PROCOMMS) UNIC seed-funded project. Creative play in this context involves the use of tactile materials, such as lollypop sticks, play doh, pipe cleaners and coloured card, to support the participants in their discussions and idea generation, to enable unstructured exploration of issues at hand. The Real World Lab training application helped identify target groups, knowledge capacities and needs and communication solutions. The PROCOMMS workshop also generated information on target groups and co-explored risk communication strategies to meet the needs of specific target groups including elderly, members of the Traveller community, businesses, and local residents. The results included 3D creations of risk communication solutions, such as awareness raising fridge magnets for the elderly. In both cases, the creative play approach enabled a fun and dynamic atmosphere, helping to encourage participation, break down disciplinary barriers, overcome formalities, communicate similarities and differences, and help frame and focus emerging ideas.

The session will also highlight plans for Directed Real World Labs to implement knowledge co-production processes and the ‘living’ good practices guide on risk communication and community engagement being developed by the PROCOMMS project.

References:

Daniels, E., et al. (2020). Refocusing the climate services lens: Introducing a framework for co-designing “transdisciplinary knowledge integration processes” to build climate resilience. Climate Services, 19. 100181. DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100181

Directed Project (EU Horizon, 2022- 2026). Real World Labs. Available at: https://directedproject.eu/about/#real-world-labs

Mainemelis, C., & Ronson, S. (2006). Ideas are born in fields of play: Towards a theory of play and creativity in organizational settings. Research in organizational behavior, 27, 81-131.

Newig, J., and O. Fritsch. (2009). ‘Environmental Governance: Participatory, multi-level – and effective?’ Environmental Policy and Governance 19(3):197–214

Norström, A. V., Cvitanovic, C., Löf, M. F., West, S., Wyborn, C., et al. (2020). Principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research. Nature Sustainability, 3(3). 182–90. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0448-2

Renn, O., & Schweizer, P.-J. (2009). Inclusive risk governance: concepts and application to environmental policy making. Environmental Policy and Governance, 19(3), 174–185.

How to cite: Cumiskey, L., Cubie, D., Parviainen, J., Bharwani, S., Schweizer, P.-J., Hofbauer, B., and Steinhausen, M.: Exploring creative play to enhance multi-stakeholder climate and disaster risk communication and knowledge co-production, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19048, 2024.

15:12–15:22
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EGU24-5663
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On-site presentation
Valentin Troll, Frances M. Deegan, and Nadhirah Seraphine

Merapi volcano in Central Java, Indonesia, is one of the most hazardous volcanoes in Southeast Asia, yet humans have inhabited the area around Merapi since ancient times. Responses to official hazard warnings are not always taken up by all community members, and some groups actively resist  engaging in protection measures initiated by official authorities. A relatively new strategy to raise hazard awareness and to improve communication with interest groups involves cultural communication tools, such as the use of local wisdom and ancient oral traditions. The local legends around Merapi volcano describe the interaction of the spirit kings that reside within Merapi volcano and the Queen of the South Sea, who resides in the Indian Ocean near Parangtritis, some 50 km SSE of the volcano. The royal palace in Yogyakarta is located half-way between Merapi volcano and Parangtritis beach and is believed to balance these opposing forces. In 2006 and 2010, Merapi erupted explosively and on both occasions, earthquakes shook the region and caused the eruptions to grow more intense. Notably, the 2006 earthquakes clustered along the Opak River fault system to the south of the volcano that reaches the sea at Parangtritis beach, the fabled residence of the Queen of the South Sea. We argue that local legends developed to rationalise the dynamic interaction between the volcano and the frequent regional earthquakes through the rich oral traditions and ceremonies in the districts around Merapi. These legends can thus be thought of as comprising an ancient hazard catalogue with respect to local eruptive behaviour and seismic phenomena. This realisation is now finding increasing use in communicating volcanic hazard knowledge to diverse local resident and interest groups, including local primary schools, showing considerable (and measurable) effects on hazard awareness and hazard preparedness (1). The use of cultural communication tools can thus help to further reduce casualties in times of future volcanic crisis.

How to cite: Troll, V., Deegan, F. M., and Seraphine, N.: Employing ancient oral traditions in Central Java to warn of volcano–earthquake interaction, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5663, 2024.

15:22–15:32
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EGU24-19082
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ECS
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Highlight
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Virtual presentation
Denyse S. Dookie, Declan Conway, and Suraje Dessai

Comprehensively addressing adaptation requires raising the awareness on climate change, recognising the factors influencing engagement and adoption of adaptation options, and understanding perceptions of climate change. However, while there is an extensive literature on public (individual and social) awareness and perspectives on hazards, risk, and impacts, as well as the broader concern for climate change, there are limited insights on organisational perceptions. Nevertheless, there is an inherent importance of focusing on organisational preparedness, adaptation and resilience given the differential impacts of climate change on organisational structure and operations and noting that organisational adaptive capacity is poorly understood.

This research offers unique organisational insights through an analysis of a national survey of UK-based organisations’ perceptions about adapting to a changing climate. Administered in spring 2021, the survey examines the responses of 2,400 persons with organisational planning roles on awareness of climate change and its physical risks, as well as ongoing action and perceived challenges to adaptation by organisations in the UK. In this research phase, we focus on the specific awareness of climate information by organisations, including the private sector, local authorities, public health and education sectors, as well as the volunteer sector, and note the indicated frequency, ease of use, and reliability of specified climate information sources across the different sectors. This research offers a platform for dialogue on the need to increase and improve risk communication to interest groups including a variety of organisations, as well as balancing organisational concerns relating to uncertainty and financial bottom-line.

How to cite: Dookie, D. S., Conway, D., and Dessai, S.: Informing adaptation: how do UK organisations view and use climate information?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19082, 2024.

15:32–15:42
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EGU24-17037
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Virtual presentation
Ana Matias, Bruno Pinto, Neide P. Areia, and Ana Rita Carrasco

The communication of coastal issues and other scientific themes relies on the efforts of scientists and other professional groups such as science communicators working in universities, research centres, media outlets, and museums. Coastal Geoscience and Engineering (CGE) is a scientific field that addresses crucial issues of risk related to natural hazardous processes such as beach erosion and coastal flooding. These concerns have become increasingly relevant in the current global scenario marked by socio-demographic development along coastal areas facing the effects of climate change. Furthermore, communication by scientists and engineers in this field can contribute to informed participatory decision-making. In this study, the objective was to quantify and characterize science communication activities by experts on CGE. Using emails from experts pooled from three international conferences on coastal dynamics, data was collected using an online questionnaire, between September 2022 and March 2023. Socio-demographic data and insights were obtained into experts’ practices and perspectives on communication, including frequency, formats, topics, motivations, and barriers.

The number of valid responses was 133, primarily researchers from Europe, North America, and Oceania, mostly male (n = 71, 53.4%), with a mean age of 45.4 (SD = 11.2). Results revealed that nearly all participants (≈ 95%) actively engage in public communication, which is a high number compared with other studied groups, where rates of scientists that did not engage in public communication range between 11% and 27%. For most of the analysed aspects of science communication in the current study, differences in opinion according to gender, age, and professional category were not significant. Notably, a preference was observed for direct interaction with audiences at local and regional scales, such as through lectures, talks, and seminars (74%), over indirect ways of communicating, like media and social media. This preference is likely related to the heightened familiarity many audiences hold on the communicated themes, with a focus on coastal risk (75%) and climate change impacts (69%), and the preferred audiences that include the public sector (55%) and school students (43%). These findings align with the prevalent altruistic motives for communication pointed out by respondents: to engage with society (76%) and to help citizens take informed decisions (68%). While the current study provides valuable insights into CGE communication, further research is necessary to delve deeper into the analysis and further enhance our understanding of this important interconnection between coastal experts and society.

How to cite: Matias, A., Pinto, B., Areia, N. P., and Carrasco, A. R.: How do coastal experts communicate science? Insights from an international survey, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17037, 2024.

15:42–15:45

Posters on site: Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X1

Display time: Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–Wed, 17 Apr, 18:00
Chairpersons: Raffaella Russo, Maike Vollmer
X1.94
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EGU24-4581
The dissemination of scientific knowledge and the communication of natural risks: some experiences.
(withdrawn)
Carlo Alberto Brunori
X1.95
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EGU24-13243
Anastassi Stefanova, Jana Sallwey, Andy Philipp, and Uwe Mueller

A key problem in flood early warnings for small catchments is the increasing forecast uncertainty associated with decreasing catchment size. Forecasts for small catchments often are based on rainfall-runoff models and quantitative precipitation estimation, both of which are subject to considerable uncertainties. In the case of a flood event, these uncertainties must be communicated to the responsible authorities along with the actual flood alert, in order for them to respond appropriately.

This requires a reliable warning system that can easily adapt to the different needs of its users. Within the HoWa-PRO project (howa-pro.sachsen.de) an information platform (howapro.de) was developed meeting exactly these requirements. The platform is an interactive web-based application providing flood early warnings for small catchments (for now only in Saxony) along with forecast uncertainties. It uses a hydrological ensemble forecast system to calculate hourly predictions and presents these as coloured symbols and plots with uncertainty bands or data layers with various information on probabilities and daily sums.

The users of the HoWa information platform are flood risk managers at municipal and district level, who often have no scientific background and certainly, no knowledge of the uncertainties in hydrological forecasts. For this reason, we developed a modular training concept that takes into account the heterogeneous level of knowledge of various user groups, such as employees of water authorities or members of the water brigade and enables a flexible and user-adapted implementation of the training courses. Additionally, a serious game on flood forecasting was designed aiming to convey important key-massages in a playful way. The game can be played during the trainings or just for fun when browsing through the HoWa information platform.

Both, the information platform and the training concept were developed in collaboration with the target groups through workshops with intensive discussions and iterative improvements. Consequently, the products on the HoWa platform are visualized and explained in a user-oriented manner. Users' preferences and suggestions were considered in the presentation of warnings (What is presented? How is it presented?) and in communicating uncertainties (Which formulations are also understood by laypersons?). Subsequent to the user workshops, the training concept and information platform were gradually adapted.

This contribution provides an overview of the visualization of uncertainties on the HoWa information platform, the training modules on the topic of uncertainties, and the iterative adaptation process by means of a continuous user dialogue.

How to cite: Stefanova, A., Sallwey, J., Philipp, A., and Mueller, U.: Communicating uncertainties in flood early warnings, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13243, 2024.

X1.96
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EGU24-1854
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ECS
Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Roth Philippe, Dallo Irina, Crowley Helen, Danicu Laurentiu, and Wiemer Stefan

Seismic risk describes the potential consequences of future earthquakes in terms of human and financial losses. As such, seismic risk models provide information that is crucial for earthquake mitigation and emergency response. For these models to be effective, their results must be accessible and comprehensible to a wide range of stakeholders including the general public. To achieve this, we applied a transdisciplinary approach to design and evaluate key outreach materials including seismic risk maps, scenario and rapid impact information. We conducted two representative online surveys with the general public (N1=580; N2=593), an online survey with students of European universities (N3=83), seven interviews with experts developing rapid impact assessments, and three workshops with about 150 representatives from cantonal authorities, first responders, and civil protection.

Although the initial product designs were well received by the target groups, which we attribute to the close interdisciplinary collaboration during the design process, they have been significantly improved based on user feedback. This enhanced stakeholders’ understanding and the usability of the products. For example, the insights from the user testing led to a new preferred colour scheme and legend for the seismic risk map and in a new standard for displaying loss distributions in rapid impact assessments. In this talk, we will present the strategy elaborated for designing useful seismic risk information and provide insights to key findings from our accompanying research using the examples of the Swiss and European seismic risk model releases in 2022 and 2023.

How to cite: Marti, M., Valenzuela, N., Philippe, R., Irina, D., Helen, C., Laurentiu, D., and Stefan, W.: Communicating seismic risk: experiences from launching the Swiss and the European seismic risk models, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1854, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1854, 2024.

X1.97
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EGU24-17942
Girolamo Milano and Eliana Bellucci Sessa

Following the recent unrest phase occurred at Campi Flegrei Caldera in the last years, the population’s demand for information on the “bradyseism” phenomenon has significantly increased. The bradyseism consists in a slow subsidence or uplift ground movement that always has characterized the dynamics of the Campi Flegrei volcanic area. Generally, seismic activity accompanied ground uplifts whereas no seismic activity occurred during ground subsidence. In order to contribute towards the understanding of this particular phenomenon for the population residing in the Campi Flegrei area, we created an exhibition panel, which shows the general trend of the bradyseism since the year 34 A.D. up to modern times. The central panel shows a graph created by merging information from historical sources, geodetic levelling and GNSS data published in recent papers. The altimetric reference “0” of this panel is that of the average see level referred to the year 1900. To make the exhibition panel more incisive, we insert in the graph copies of vintage prints and postcards of the ruins of a monument located in proximity of the city of Pozzuoli’s harbor: The Macellum, best known as Serapeum. The peculiarity of this ancient Roman market is the presence, at various heights on the three still erected columns, of lithodome holes that are an indication of the sea level in the past. The images of the vintage prints (since about 1730) and of the postcards (since about 1850), well show the Serapeum in the phase of subsidence or ground uplift being its floor flooded with water (below sea level) or dry (above sea level). The vintage prints and postcards, inserted in correspondence of the date when realized, well support the trend in the graph. The exhibition panel was presented at “Notte dei Ricercatori” event (Napoli 29 September 2023) and in occasion of the “Futuro Remoto” event (Napoli 22-27 November 2023), receiving notable public success for the accompanying images that well helped in understanding the bradyseism phenomena.

How to cite: Milano, G. and Bellucci Sessa, E.: A contribution towards the understanding of the “bradyseism” phenomenon at the Campi Flegrei volcanic area (Southern Italy), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17942, 2024.

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EGU24-1894
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ECS
Irina Dallo, Michèle Marti, Leila Mizrahi, and Stefan Wiemer

Enhancing societies’ resilience is crucial for saving lives and mitigating losses caused by significant earthquakes. Earthquake forecasting offers an opportunity to inform societies – professionals and the general public – about the probability of earthquakes of certain magnitudes to occur. Particularly following a severe earthquake, earthquake forecasts (in this special case sometimes called aftershock forecasts) play a pivotal role in addressing the common question "What comes next?" posed by various stakeholders, including the media, the public, regional and national authorities. Earthquake forecasts allow to respond quantitatively to this question. Nevertheless, understanding how stakeholders utilize the often very low probabilities of future large earthquakes needs further research to ensure accurate interpretation and effective implementation of the provided forecasts.

At the conference, we will present the procedure applied by the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich in developing and validating the forecasting model, as well as the co-creation and testing of communication materials. In essence, our approach involved conducting an expert elicitation to understand common practices, fostering an international network for continuous knowledge exchange. In parallel, we began formulating and testing the earthquake forecast model tailored to Switzerland and started assessing the needs of Swiss end users. Our ongoing efforts involve designing forecast products intended for duty seismologists, enabling them to respond promptly to media inquiries and to public requests. We also test these products and more simplified prototypes with authorities and the public, providing for instance insights into the likely evolution of an earthquake sequence.

Some first insights from the international expert elicitation are that (i) societal stakeholders need support in interpreting the forecasts; (ii) scenarios are a common way to communicate earthquake forecasts; (iii) ideally, earthquake forecasts would be permanently communicated to society; (iv) information needs do not vary significantly between the different stakeholders; and (v) the way earthquake forecasts are communicated to society should be tested and co-designed with the intended users. Regarding the latter, stay tuned for the conference where we present the techniques and methods we have been using for the stakeholder testing in Switzerland.

This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreement Number 101021746, sCience and human factOr for Resilient sociEty (CORE), and the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich.

How to cite: Dallo, I., Marti, M., Mizrahi, L., and Wiemer, S.: From model development to co-designing user-centered earthquake forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1894, 2024.

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EGU24-12557
Caroline Orchiston

New Zealand is the second most hazardous country in the world according to the UN, and has had recent experiences of destructive earthquakes that have catalysed efforts to improve societal resilience. The Alpine Fault presents the most significant seismic hazard for the South Island, with a 75% probability of generating a magnitude 8 earthquake in the next 50 years (Howarth et al. 2021). An event of this scale will cause widespread damage, and lead to nationally significant economic and social disruption.  The AF8 [Alpine Fault magnitude 8] programme was established in 2016, as a partnership between science and emergency management to build societal awareness and preparedness for a future Alpine Fault earthquake disaster. The programme has used a scenario-based planning approach to improve readiness across local, regional and national contexts. The compelling ‘science story’ of the Alpine Fault is used as a platform to draw people into improving their individual, community and business preparedness. Since its inception, AF8 has had demonstrable impact on improving resilience, from the grassroots to the highest levels of government, and has been awarded for its collaborative governance by Local Government New Zealand. The programme is considered a leader in risk communication, using human-centred design principles to develop engaging digital education resources and social media campaigns. This paper will explore the key elements of the programme; scenario-based planning and effective risk communication to reveal insights that may support other collaborative, science-based risk reduction efforts globally.

How to cite: Orchiston, C.: Collaboration at the science-policy interface for effective earthquake risk communication in New Zealand  , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12557, 2024.

Posters virtual: Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vHall X1

Display time: Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–Wed, 17 Apr, 18:00
Chairpersons: Stefano Solarino, Maike Vollmer, Maria Vittoria Gargiulo
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EGU24-18191
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Highlight
Chrysoula Papathanasiou, Femke Mulder, Maureen Fordham, Lazaros Karagiannidis, and Angelos Amditis

Risk mitigation for natural and human-made hazards hinges on effective two-way communication between Civil Protection Authorities (CPAs) and the at-risk population. This work focuses on identifying the timing and methods of this communication. Effective communication is shaped by the information that is available, like forecast lead times and hazard observations, and the technical and conceptual tools that support it. It also requires that CPAs communicate with citizens at all stages of the disaster management cycle: before a hazard event (prevention and preparedness), during a hazard event (response), and after a hazard event (recovery and learning from the event). This is applicable to all hazard types. For efficient risk communication, the best approach is an integrated one, combining cutting-edge technology with targeted conceptual tools. Both were developed and tested in the RiskPACC project (www.riskpacc.eu). A notable innovation in RiskPACC is the active involvement of both CPAs and citizens in tool development, through co-creation and co-development activities that aid in tool design and finalization (Papathanasiou et al., 2023b). RiskPACC's conceptual framework focuses on facilitating effective two-way communication between CPAs and citizens. It provides guidance on building relationships for risk reduction and co-developing communication strategies, based on a shared understanding of local risks. This is supported by a resource repository and good practices, like participatory mapping. An example of a co-developed technology within RiskPACC is the Aeolian AR mobile app (Papathanasiou et al., 2023a), covering all disaster risk management phases and enabling bidirectional communication between citizens and CPAs.

Acknowledgments:

This research has been financed by European Unions’ Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No 101019707, project RiskPACC (Integrating Risk Perception and Action to enhance Civil protection-Citizen interaction).

 

References:

Papathanasiou, Chrysoula; Sampson, Orestis; Douklias, Thanasis; Karagiannidis, Lazaros; Michalis, Panagiotis and Amditis, Angelos (2023).  Evolution of an ICT tool through co-creation for effective disaster risk management. SafeGreece 2023, Athens Greece, 25-27 September 2023. Retrievable at https://safegreece.org/safeattica2023/images/docs/safeattica2023_proceedings.pdf.

Papathanasiou, Chrysoula; Michalis, Panagiotis; Stavrou, Konstantinos; Tsougiannis, Evangelos; Anniés, Jeannette; Papageorgiou, Sofia; Ouzounoglou, Eleftherios; Amditis, Angelos (2023). Enhancement of local community resilience to natural and man-made disasters through the application of co-created novel technological tools. EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1381. Retrievable at https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1381.

How to cite: Papathanasiou, C., Mulder, F., Fordham, M., Karagiannidis, L., and Amditis, A.: Technological and conceptual tools for risk communication during the different phases of disaster risk management of natural and human-made hazards, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18191, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18191, 2024.