GMPV9.1 | Volcano monitoring and volcano hazards forecasting: Where we are and what we need
Volcano monitoring and volcano hazards forecasting: Where we are and what we need
Co-sponsored by AGU
Convener: Chiara Maria Petrone | Co-conveners: Claudia Corradino, Daniele Andronico, Matthew Pankhurst, Ciro Del Negro, Michael Ramsey, Vito Zago
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room D2
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X1
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Thu, 16:15
Monitoring active and quiescent volcanoes is the pillar for successful hazard assessment and risk mitigation. Traditional surficial and aerial monitoring is increasingly associated with petrology and novel techniques such as muography, new generation of remote sensing, unoccupied aircraft systems, continuous gas monitoring, satellite observations, and the tremendous advances in computing power, leading to an increased use of data-driven approaches, including artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. Machine learning, is gaining importance in volcanology, not only for automatic processing of large datasets (i.e., monitoring purposes) but also for later hazards analysis (e.g., modelling tools). Equally important is to establish the volcano eruptive history and probabilistic eruption forecasting modelling. However, many volcano observatories lack economic resources to deploy many of the current techniques and thus acquire additional monitoring data for a more effective volcano surveillance. Development of low-cost monitoring equipment and higher-throughput methods are under way which promise to address this economic barrier to science and hazard mitigation.
In this session, we welcome contributions of any aspect of the broad field of volcano monitoring from traditional to novel techniques and the new frontiers in the field blending machine-learning, data-driven approaches, and physics-based simulations. Inter- and multidisciplinary approach and best practices in hazard assessment and risk mitigation are particularly welcome.

Orals: Fri, 19 Apr | Room D2

Chairpersons: Chiara Maria Petrone, Claudia Corradino, Daniele Andronico
08:30–08:35
08:35–08:45
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EGU24-9726
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Rebecca Sveva Morelli, Rosario Riccio, Sergio Guardato, Stefano Caliro, Francesco Chierici, Giovanni Macedonio, Vincenzo Morra, and Giovanni Iannaccone

Caldera systems generally show complex ground deformation phenomena, mainly associated with variations at different timescales of the hydrothermal systems normally hosted in calderas, magma storage and migration in the volcano plumbing system. Sometimes volcanic calderas are totally or partially submerged, which makes their study challenging, in particular if we consider shallow water systems. 

Many studies demonstrate the efficiency of adopting Bottom Pressure Recorder sensors (BPRs) for monitoring the vertical displacement of volcanic areas in deep-water environments. Moreover, BPRs measure the pressure at the seafloor over time, making possible their use to measure rapid or gradual inflation and deflation events. 

Here we propose an original approach to investigate the seafloor deformation over time in shallow volcanic areas using these instruments, and we applied it at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), a high-risk volcano system with a significant portion submerged in the Bay of Pozzuoli, near Naples. In this study we consider the data of two BPRs installed at the seabed within the Multiparametric Elastic-Beacon Devices and Underwater Sensors Acquisition (MEDUSA) infrastructure of the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano, and we transform pressure measurements in equivalent water level changes to obtain the vertical seafloor displacement. To do this, we need the mean density of the water column during the periods of analysis, so we indirectly calculate it through the use of two tide gauges, one placed in the Gulf of Pozzuoli, and one located outside the deformation area for reference. The final results are then compared with the data acquired by the GPSs installed on the top of MEDUSA buoys, deployed at the same sites of the BPRs. The good correlation obtained supports the reliability of these sensors in measuring the seafloor deformation in a shallow water environment with an unprecedented level of accuracy.

How to cite: Morelli, R. S., Riccio, R., Guardato, S., Caliro, S., Chierici, F., Macedonio, G., Morra, V., and Iannaccone, G.: Innovative approach to investigate seafloor slow vertical deformation using bottom pressure measurements in a volcanic area: Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) case of study, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9726, 2024.

08:45–08:55
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EGU24-5632
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Damià Benet, Fidel Costa, Christina Widiwijayanti, John Pallister, Gabriela Pedreros, Patrick Allard, Hanik Humaida, Yosuke Aoki, and Fukashi Maeno

The study of volcanic ash and its different components provides key information that can help understand the likely evolution of volcanic activity during early stages of a crisis and possible transitions towards different eruptive styles. However, classifying ash particles into components such as juvenile or lithic is not straightforward. Diagnostic observations may vary depending on the style of eruption, and there is no standardized methodology, which may lead to ambiguities in assigning a given particle to a given class. To address this problem, we created the web-based Volcanic Ash DataBase (VolcAshDB) which is made of > 6,300 multi-focused binocular images of particles from a range of magma compositions and types of volcanic activity (https://volcash.wovodat.org/). For each particle image, we quantitatively extracted 33 features of shape, texture, and color, and visually classified each particle into one of the four main components: free crystal, altered material, lithic, and juvenile. We used the data in VolcAshDB to setup a variety of machine learning-based models aimed at improving ash particle classification. We identified the features that are discriminant of a given particle type through explanatory AI and the Shapley values from the predictions made by an XGBoost model. We have also developed an accurate Vision Transformer model (93% accuracy) that could be potentially used by volcano observatories to obtain a relatively rapid and objective score on a particle-by-particle basis. Such models could be used for petrologic monitoring in a reproducible and systematic manner aiding in making more informed decisions for hazard mitigation.

How to cite: Benet, D., Costa, F., Widiwijayanti, C., Pallister, J., Pedreros, G., Allard, P., Humaida, H., Aoki, Y., and Maeno, F.: The making of a Volcanic Ash DataBase (VolcAshDB) and its exploitation with machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5632, 2024.

08:55–09:05
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EGU24-12847
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On-site presentation
Susanna Ebmeier, Mike Poland, Matthew Pritchard, Juliet Biggs, and Marco Bagnardi

Satellite observations of displacement are critical to any efforts to monitor volcanoes globally given that less than half of world’s potentially active subaerial volcanoes are monitored continuously by ground-based systems.  Thermal, gas and displacement measurements all provide important insights for understanding volcanic processes.  Displacements measured by synthetic aperture radar in particular, are potentially informative in pre-eruptive periods, but remain especially uneven in their geographical coverage.  While this is partially due to variations in sources of uncertainty such as vegetation and atmospheric signals, it is also a consequence of unequal access to data and differences in local capacity to process and analyse it.

The Committee for Earth Observation Satellites Working Group on Disasters Volcano Pilot (2014-2017) and Volcano Demonstrator (2019-2023) projects aimed to illustrated the great potential that satellite data have for detection and forecasting of unrest and eruption.  These programs have played a particular role in connecting volcano observatory scientists to constellation SAR imagery with a diversity of wavelengths, acquisition strategies and data access policies.   This work has had an impact on monitoring decisions at volcanoes, especially in Latin America, but has also resulted in the development of new approaches for integrating and interpreting diverse EO observations and contributed to the development of a strategy for global satellite monitoring of volcanoes.

Here, we describe the aims and early progress of the successor initiative G-VEWERS (Global Volcano Early Warning and Eruption Response from Space). This aims to be a permanent partnership between space agencies, researchers at academic institutions, and volcano observatories, with the goal of coordinating the acquisition, access, and utilization of satellite data to support volcano monitoring and early warning at volcano observatories worldwide.

How to cite: Ebmeier, S., Poland, M., Pritchard, M., Biggs, J., and Bagnardi, M.: Developing Earth Observation strategies for Global Volcano Monitoring (G-VEWERS), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12847, 2024.

09:05–09:15
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EGU24-20991
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Martin Foin, Jean Chéry, Han Cheng Seat, Michel Cattoen, Michel Peyret, and Sandrine Baudin

Monitoring volcanic deformation is crucial for understanding eruptive activities and associated hazards. While various surface deformation measurement tools like GPS, INSAR and tiltmeters are widely used on volcanoes, strainmeters offer unique means to detect volcanic transient phenomena, deformation source location and dynamics (Bagagli et al., 2017; Bonaccorso et al., 2023), including the categorization of phenomena (Carleo et al., 2023). However, their widespread use has been hindered by cost considerations and the challenges associated with on-field calibration. Additionally, strainmeters are recording deformation from shallow water levels, body tides, pressure changes and snowfall, that makes difficult the separation among the involved processes.

To address these challenges, we propose a novel, moderate-cost, high-resolution borehole strainmeter based on optical measurement. Strain is quantified by measuring the diameter change of a sphere using optical interferometry (Seat et al. 2012), providing a 10-10 strain resolution across a broadband [0; 2.5] kHz range. This innovative strainmeter (Chery 2021, patent FR2106959) features six uniaxial strain gauges anchored inside a concrete spherical shell, enabling the reconstruction of the six components of the 3D strain tensor. The full measurement of the strain tensor should enhance our understanding of deformation dynamics both at borehole vicinity and in the far-field. Indeed, the knowledge of the full straintensor should allow the differentiation between near-field and far-field perturbations due to the distinct nature of their strain perturbation in time and space.

A seventh measurement gauge, free of shell deformation, facilitates the filtering of physical variations associated to laser wavelength, temperature and air pressure. To ensure accuracy and reliability of the strainmeter, an in-situ calibration system involving sphere pressurization is integrated. This innovative feature should help to determine borehole heterogeneity and to minimize long term drift.

In November 2023, a first strainmeter prototype has been successfully installed on the Larzac Plateau (France) at the multi-instrument observatory (OSU OREME and H+/OZCAR network). We will present first results of the instrument and will discuss the future perspectives.

How to cite: Foin, M., Chéry, J., Seat, H. C., Cattoen, M., Peyret, M., and Baudin, S.: Measuring the full strain tensor using a low-cost optical borehole strainmeter, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20991, 2024.

09:15–09:25
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EGU24-15675
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On-site presentation
Luca D'Auria, José Barrancos, Alberto Falcón García, David Martínez van Dorth, Víctor Ortega Ramos, Germán D. Padilla, Javier Preciado-Garbayo, and Nemesio M. Pérez

In recent years, the use of Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) in seismology has gained extensive usage in different applications. A High-Fidelity DAS system (HDAS) was deployed during the 2021 Tajogaite eruption on Cumbre Volcano (La Palma, Canary Islands), allowing the recording of most of the syn-eruptive and post-eruptive seismicity. The eruption lasted from Sep. 19th until Dec. 13th of 2021. The HDAS was installed on Oct. 19th and is still operating.

The HDAS was installed around 10 km from the eruptive vent and was connected to a submarine fibre optic cable directed toward Tenerife Island. Since then, the HDAS has been recording seismic with a temporal sampling rate of 100 Hz and a spatial sampling rate of 10m for a total length of 30 (first phase) and 50 km using Raman Amplification (last period).

The HDAS recorded thousands of local earthquakes as well as regional and teleseism events. It was revealed to be an excellent tool for volcanic monitoring, allowing a better location of deeper events, whose location was made difficult by the small aperture of the seismic network of La Palma.

The HDAS was also able to record the low-frequency (<1 Hz) component of the volcanic tremor up to a distance of tens of kilometres from the volcano. We show how using array-like techniques (MUSIC and Beamforming), it is possible to identify and separate the volcanic tremor signals from the oceanic ambient noise and characterize its source. In particular, this analysis revealed a complex wavefield consisting mostly of surface waves. The array analysis shows that, apart from the ballistic arrivals of surface waves radiated by the eruptive vents, the wavefield contains arrivals related to the scattering from topographic features of the island and its surroundings. Furthermore, it revealed that, apart from surface waves, the wavefield contains arrivals compatible with body waves radiated by deeper sources. We interpret these sources as the effect of the resonance of the volcanic tremor caused by the flow of magma within the system of feeder dikes. 

This work demonstrates the effectiveness of using DAS as a real-time volcano monitoring tool.

How to cite: D'Auria, L., Barrancos, J., Falcón García, A., Martínez van Dorth, D., Ortega Ramos, V., Padilla, G. D., Preciado-Garbayo, J., and Pérez, N. M.: Detection of deep volcanic tremor sources during the 2021 Tajogaite eruption (La Palma, Canary Islands), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15675, 2024.

09:25–09:35
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EGU24-10724
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Gro B. M. Pedersen, Joaquin M. C. Belart, Birgir V. Óskarsson, Sydney R. Gunnarson, Magnús T. Gudmundsson, Hannah I. Reynolds, Guðmundur Valsson, Thórdís Högnadóttir, Virginie Pinel, Michelle M. Parks, Vincent Drouin, Robert A. Askew, Tobias Dürig, and Ragnar H. Þrastarson

At the time of writing (January 9, 2024) four basaltic effusive eruptions have taken place on the Reykjanes Peninsula, SW Iceland since 2021. This includes three eruptions within the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system (March 19–September 18, 2021; August 3–21, 2022 and July 10–August 5, 2023) and one eruption within the Svartsengi volcanic system (December 18–21, 2023). Near real-time photogrammetric monitoring was performed during all four eruptions and the results yielded eruption parameters such as lava volumes, thicknesses, and effusion rates, which are key for hazard assessments.

 

The 6-month long 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption produced a bulk lava volume of 150 ± 3 × 106 m3 and the mean output rate (MOR) of 9.5 ± 0.2 m3/s with a fairly constant time-averaged discharge rate ranging between 1–8 m3/s in March–April and increasing to 9–13 m3/s in May–September. The 18 day long eruption in 2022 had a bulk volume of 11 ± 0.4 × 106 m3 with a MOR of ~7 m3/s, starting with a fairly high initial effusion (exceeding 30 m3/s a few hours from the eruption start) followed by an exponential declining phase of waning effusion. The 2023 eruption in the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system lasted 26 days and the effusion rate followed an exponential declining trend like the 2022 eruption with similar MOR of ~7 m3/s and a bulk volume of ~15 × 106 m3. The initial effusion rates observed in these three eruptions were comparable to the calculated inflow rates into the dikes prior to eruption onset, suggesting that the magnitude of effusion can be estimated prior to eruption onset. Furthermore, first order assessments of eruption durations were feasible from the exponentially declining effusion rate curves in 2022 and 2023.

The eruption in the Svartsengi volcanic system yielded a bulk volume of ~11 × 106 m3 with a MOR of ~50 m3/s. The initial effusion rate was likely to have exceeded 300 m3/s and declined rapidly ending after 2.5 days.

Here we discuss the different trends in the effusion rate curves for these four eruptions, what insight they provide regarding plumbing system dynamics, and their implications concerning associated lava hazards.

How to cite: Pedersen, G. B. M., Belart, J. M. C., Óskarsson, B. V., Gunnarson, S. R., Gudmundsson, M. T., Reynolds, H. I., Valsson, G., Högnadóttir, T., Pinel, V., Parks, M. M., Drouin, V., Askew, R. A., Dürig, T., and Þrastarson, R. H.: Volume, effusion rates and lava hazards of the 2021, 2022 and 2023 Reykjanes fires: Lessons learned from near real-time photogrammetric monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10724, 2024.

09:35–09:45
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EGU24-14151
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ECS
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On-site presentation
James Thompson, Michael Ramsey, and Claudia Corradino

Well established baseline data are critical for volcanic change detection and forecasting associated hazards. High resolution thermal infrared (TIR) data captured synoptically over the entire volcanic system and spanning a long time period provide this forecasting capability for many volcanoes around the world. Foundational to these patterns is the subtle (1-2 K) thermal changes, which are easily overlooked using the current lower spatial resolution (1-2 km) TIR data. Therefore, despite decades of spaceborne data acquisition, orbital volcano science still lacks the fundamental ability to forecast a new eruption. Fortunately, several high spatial resolution TIR missions are planned for the coming decade and their data will be crucial to constrain volcanic activity patterns throughout the pre- and post-eruption phases. One of these is the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) TIR instrument being jointly developed between NASA in the US and ASI in Italy. It is planned to have high spatial (~ 60 m) and much improved temporal (1-3 days) resolutions with the regular production of volcano-specific data products. In preparation for the data from these new missions, we conducted the first study using the entire data record of higher spatial, lower temporal resolution TIR data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) sensor. ASTER data are the most similar to SBG TIR and most critically, ASTER’s twenty-two-year archive presents a unique opportunity to quantify low-level temperature anomalies to establish baseline behavior. We developed a new statistical algorithm to automatically detect the full range of thermal activity and applied it to >5000 ASTER scenes of five volcanoes with well-documented eruptions. Unique to this algorithm is its ability to use both day and night data, account for clouds, and quantify accurate background temperatures by dynamically scaling depending on the anomaly size. Despite the less frequent temporal coverage of ASTER, the results are an improvement over prior studies that used lower spatial resolution data and show that high spatial resolution TIR data are more effective. Most significant was the finding that the smaller, subtle thermal detections served as precursory signals in ~81% of eruptions. These results also create a framework for classifying future eruptive styles and produced a labeled dataset for use with more advanced machine learning (ML) modeling. Using ML trained on the ASTER results, data from a sixth volcano that was not part of the original study were modeled and the thermally-elevated pixels accurately identified. This thermal anomaly detection approach will be incorporated into the SBG data processing stream to produce crucial daily orbital forecasting of the volcanic activity across the world.

How to cite: Thompson, J., Ramsey, M., and Corradino, C.: Forecasting future volcanic activity in long time series orbital infrared data using machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14151, 2024.

09:45–09:55
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EGU24-9052
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Simone Aveni, Marco Laiolo, Adele Campus, Francesco Massimetti, and Diego Coppola

Volcanic eruptions pose a major threat to at least 800 million people. Studies revealed that ~50% of the ~1400 potentially active subaerial volcanoes still lack conventional ground-based monitoring networks. In this context, satellite data proves to be a cost-effective, yet reliable, information source for detecting early signs of volcanic activity and monitoring the evolution of eruptive events.
Within the past two decades, several moderate resolution (~1 km) Mid-InfraRed (MIR) satellite-based volcano monitoring systems have been developed, mostly targeting high-temperature anomalies associated with eruptive activity. Subtle thermal anomalies, however, might occur from years to days prior major volcanic unrests and/or eruptions, and persist for a long time during the cooling stage of the erupted deposits.
Studies revealed that Thermal InfraRed (TIR) bands, often characterised by higher spatial resolution (< 100 m) but lower revisit time (> 6 days), are well suited to detect subtle thermal anomalies. Yet, even in a high-temperature domain, TIR observations typically prove more effective in accurately determining the dimensions of active and cooling lava flows. Besides, high resolution TIR channels allow the retrieval of more detailed spatial information but with a temporal resolution inadequate for daily monitoring.
Forefront TIR-equipped platforms, however, like the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), offer an unprecedented trade-off between spatial (375 m) and temporal resolution (up to 4 acquisitions of the same target per day), having the potential to provide accurate heat flux measurements before, during and after an eruption. 
Here we present a single-band TIR-based algorithm capable of detecting thermal anomalies in a broad range of volcanic settings, from crater lakes and localised low-temperature hydrothermal systems to high-temperature effusive events. The algorithm – based on temporal and contextual analyses to identify thermally anomalous pixels – can detect thermal anomalies for pixel-integrated temperatures as low as 0.5 K above the surrounding hot-spot-free background and as far as 25 km from the volcano’s summit while maintaining a false positive rate of ~2%.
Results emerging from selected case studies envisage that the system will prove instrumental for detecting early signs of volcanic activity and for monitoring the evolution of thermal emissions, from unrest to eruption. Furthermore, the compilation of statistically robust multidecadal thermal datasets will provide novel insights and new perspectives into volcano monitoring, laying the ground for forthcoming higher-resolution TIR missions.

How to cite: Aveni, S., Laiolo, M., Campus, A., Massimetti, F., and Coppola, D.: A single band TIR-based algorithm to detect low-to-high thermal anomalies in volcanic regions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9052, 2024.

09:55–10:05
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EGU24-2410
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Quentin Dumont, Takeshi Nishimura, Takashi Hirose, and Tomoya Takano

Detection of subtle precursors to forecast the timing and location of eruptive events are one of the main issues in volcanic risk mitigation. Seismic interferometry of ambient noise allows to detect very small change in the medium, but is affected by numerous processes such as strain and meteorological variations that need to be identified and characterized in order to correctly interpret the observation for operational monitoring. To assess the monitoring potential of the seismic velocity changes, we jointly analyzed 10 year time series of velocity, strain and meteorological changes at 21 Japanese volcanoes. They span different environmental conditions and volcanic behavior, insuring a broad sample of velocity–strain–environmental interactions.

Daily seismic velocity changes were computed considering three frequency bands (0.5-1 Hz, 1-2 Hz and 2-4 Hz). Daily meteorological data were provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Deformation data include (1) areal strain computed from the GNSS stations of the JMA and Geonet network (from Geospatial Information Authority of Japan), and (2) numerically computed tidal strain by using GOTIC2 software (Matsumoto et al., 2001).

We assumed the velocity change to results from the linear combination of the strain and meteorological changes (including rainfall, snow load, temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and sea level variations), and inverted their respective contributions to the observed velocity variation using a least-squares method.

Over the 21 volcanoes, the inversion of the parameters are able to explain 20-30% of the data in average. We determine that areal strain and temperature have, on average, a high impact on velocities (each representing ≈20% of the modeled velocities) but also shows a high variability from volcano to volcano, while pore pressure and sea level variations, which shows almost same amount of contribution to the velocities (≈20%), have a much lower variability indicating a background effect found at more or less all volcanoes. Atmospheric pressure and wind speed show similar behavior but at a lower level (≈10%). Snow have a relatively low impact over the whole year (≈5%) but it strongly increases during winter (up to 30%). Tidal strain do not demonstrate significant effect on daily velocity variations.

In the details of each volcano, results demonstrate the possibility to retrieve the different component contributing to the measured velocity change. This shows encouraging results for several subsequent application such as: (1) detection of small eruptive precursor by removing the modeled contributions, (2) use of the velocity change as a stress monitoring proxy based on the determined strain sensitivity, (3) monitoring pore pressure change especially for lava dome stability. We also highlight the need for collocated seismic and meteorological sensors to achieve higher accuracy in the environmental effect correction.

How to cite: Dumont, Q., Nishimura, T., Hirose, T., and Takano, T.: Joint analysis of seismic velocity change, deformation and meteorological data for volcano monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2410, 2024.

10:05–10:15
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EGU24-8083
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solicited
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Giovanni Chiodini, Stefano Caliro, Carlo Cardellini, Rosario Avino, Giulio Bini, Antonio Carandente, Emilio Cuoco, Carmine Minopoli, Tullio Ricci, Francesco Rufino, Alessandro Santi, Alessandra Sciarra, and Giancarlo Tamburello

The systematic sampling of the main fumaroles of Solfatara (Campi Flegrei, Italy) started during the bradyseismic crisis of 1983-84. In the late 1990s, diffusive CO2 emissions measurements also became part of the monitoring activity through systematic campaigns. In these 40 years of investigations almost unique databases were created including thousands of chemical and isotopic analyses of fumaroles and hundreds estimations of the diffuse CO2 emission. These databases provided the base of numerous geochemical and interdisciplinary scientific works to understand the processes occurring in the hydrothermal-magmatic system of Campi Flegrei, a caldera in unrest since 2005. The main results obtained by this effort indicate the pivotal role of magma degassing in the current crisis of Campi Flegrei. The deep magmatic fluids are injected into the hydrothermal system during episodes of magma degassing. These injections cause pressurization and heating of the hydrothermal systems, earthquakes, ground deformations, changes in fumarole compositions and escalating CO2 emission at the surface. The expulsion of these fluids constitutes the most energetic process currently occurring at Campi Flegrei; it is, in fact, more energetic than ground deformation and seismic activity. In this work, we present a review of these different aspects.

How to cite: Chiodini, G., Caliro, S., Cardellini, C., Avino, R., Bini, G., Carandente, A., Cuoco, E., Minopoli, C., Ricci, T., Rufino, F., Santi, A., Sciarra, A., and Tamburello, G.: Forty years of geochemical data  at Campi Flegrei hydrothermal system, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8083, 2024.

Posters on site: Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X1

Display time: Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–Thu, 18 Apr, 18:00
Chairpersons: Ciro Del Negro, Michael Ramsey, Vito Zago
X1.174
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EGU24-563
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ECS
Eleonora Amato, Vito Zago, and Ciro Del Negro

The combination of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) enables to expand the scope of fluid modeling and improve simulation performance. Eulerian methods have already been extensively integrated with AI, providing high-fidelity and reliable results (e.g., weather prediction); the application of AI to Lagrangian methods remains less consolidated. Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) is a Lagrangian mesh-less CFD numerical method with well-established advantages for the simulation of highly dynamic free-surface complex fluids. However, reliable SPH simulations require long execution times and large computational resources. This downside can be resolved using emulators, which can reproduce the dynamics of a physical system, speeding-up the simulations. In detail, an emulator is a model in which AI algorithms join or replace the equation-based mathematical representation of physics. Thus, the emulator learns from CFD simulations the behavior of the CFD reference model and reproduces it to solve fluid dynamics problems in shorter times. For the emulator to be trusted, it is important to assess the ability to generalize and correctly predict the behavior of the fluid in conditions that have not been presented during training phase. Here, we present the generalizability of an AI-based emulator for SPH, utilizing an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to estimate the hydrodynamic forces between SPH particles. We demonstrate the capability of the emulator to reproduce particle interaction quantities, as opposed to their specific spatial configuration. Therefore, when a different problem is treated, as long as the variables values are in a range with physics meaning presented during training, the emulator will be capable to produce physically meaningful results. We discuss the salient points of designing this emulator, such as the choice of the AI model, i.e., the ANN, and the choice of the features. We show applications to different test cases, highlighting the emulator ability to generalize for problems with varying levels of complexity, and for changes in the model resolution.

How to cite: Amato, E., Zago, V., and Del Negro, C.: Generalizability of AI-based Emulators for CFD Lagrangian methods , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-563, 2024.

X1.175
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EGU24-564
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ECS
Simona Cariello, Claudia Corradino, Federica Torrisi, and Ciro Del Negro

Nowadays, several satellite missions provide thermal infrared data at various spatial resolutions and revisit time, enabling nearly continuous monitoring of thermal volcanic activity worldwide. In addition, computer vision techniques, based on Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) models, offer unique advantages in automatically extracting valuable information from large datasets. Here, we propose a Machine Learning approach that leverages the capabilities of such models, combined with nearly continuous high spatial resolution images (20 m) acquired from the Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (S2-MSI), to detect high-temperature volcanic features and to quantify volcanic thermal emissions. The impact of the volcanic activity is assessed based on the spatial distribution of the erupted products. Spatially characterizing the detected thermal anomalies allows us to both highlight significant pre-eruptive thermal changes and estimate the areal coverage, length of the erupted products, and the lowest altitude reached by them. We utilize the entire archive of high spatial resolution Sentinel-2 data, which comprises more than 6000 S2-MSI scenes from ten different volcanoes around the world. By employing a “top-down” cascading architecture that integrates two distinct Machine Learning models, a scene classifier (SqueezeNet) and a pixel-based segmentation model (Random Forest), we achieve very high accuracy, specifically 95%. This result comes from overcoming the limitations of the scene-level DL classification model, which compresses the entire spatial and spectral information into one unique label, by relying on the pixel-level Random Forest (RF) model. The use of multiple models allows to create more robust and powerful predictors making this tool suitable for near real time volcanic activity detection. These results demonstrate that the cascading system processes any available S2-MSI image in near-real time, providing a significant contribution to the monitoring, mapping, and characterization of volcanic thermal features worldwide.

How to cite: Cariello, S., Corradino, C., Torrisi, F., and Del Negro, C.: How Machine Learning and Satellite Data Enhance Near-Real Time Detection of Volcanic Activity Worldwide, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-564, 2024.

X1.176
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EGU24-822
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ECS
Federica Torrisi, Claudia Corradino, Simona Cariello, Taryn Lopez, and Ciro Del Negro

During an explosive eruption, a major hazard to population can be represented by the ejection in the atmosphere of gases and ash, with the consequent creation of volcanic clouds, which can compromise aviation safety. The combined use of a variety of satellite data in different spectral ranges with diverse spatial and temporal resolutions allows us to continuously monitor volcanic ash clouds in an efficient and timely manner. Specifically, the latest generation of high temporal resolution satellite sensors, such as EUMETSAT MSG Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) and GOES18 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), provide almost continuous radiometric estimates to track the entire evolution of volcanic clouds produced by worldwide volcanoes. Therefore, leveraging the strengths of these satellite sensors, which provide frequent observations at a wide variety of wavelengths, can provide critical information to help understand volcanic processes and extract eruptive products. Nevertheless, the satellite data volume is too large for ad hoc processing and analysis especially when considering daily global-scale observations. Deep learning (DL), a fastest-growing technique of artificial intelligence in remote sensing data analysis applications, has an excellent ability to learn massive, high-dimensional image features and has been widely studied and applied in classification, recognition, and detection tasks involving satellite imagery.

Here, we developed a new DL model, based on Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), which exploits a variety of spatiotemporal information mainly coming from geostationary satellite sensors. It is trained on a combination of Thermal Infrared (TIR) bands acquired by MSG-SEVIRI and GOES18-ABI. The proposed model aims to extract complex spectral and spatial patterns autonomously to recognize a volcanic ash cloud. Preliminary capabilities and limitations of this model will be presented here. Thanks to the wide area covered by these satellite sensors, it is possible to apply this model to different volcanoes. Specifically, this model has been applied to the paroxysmal events that occurred at Mt. Etna (Italy) between 2020 and 2020 and at Shishaldin (Alaska, USA) in 2023.

How to cite: Torrisi, F., Corradino, C., Cariello, S., Lopez, T., and Del Negro, C.: Joint use of machine learning and geostationary satellite data for volcanic ash cloud detection, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-822, 2024.

X1.177
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EGU24-1030
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ECS
Giovanni Salvatore Di Bella, Claudia Corradino, Simona Cariello, Federica Torrisi, and Ciro Del Negro

Nowadays, near-real time volcano monitoring at global scale is made possible thanks to the thermal infrared sensors on board of several satellite platforms providing accurate estimates of the volcanic thermal emissions. In particular, they are able to provide reliable estimates of the Volcanic Radiative Power (VRP), i.e. the heat radiated during the volcanic activity. In addition, Remote Sensing Data Fusion (RSDF) techniques allow to combine data from multiple satellite sensors to improve the potential values of the single source and to produce a high-quality data representation. Fusion techniques are useful for a variety of applications, ranging from object detection, to object tracking, change detection. In particular, we aim to use them to integrate the different satellite data acquired with different spatial and spectral resolutions to produce fused data that contains more detailed information than each of the data sources. We introduce a novel RSDF algorithm deployed in a Cloud Computing environment to monitor VRP worldwide from multiple multispectral satellite sensors, namely the polar MODIS, SLSTR and VIIRS and the geostationary SEVIRI. The RSDF algorithm demonstrates heightened sensitivity in detecting high-temperature volcanic features and thus VRP monitoring compared to conventional already processed Level 2 products available online. Specifically, the overall accuracy has improved in terms of omitted rate and false detections, reducing from 78% to 5.3% and from 6.5% to 4.7%, respectively. The decision to combine the use of different satellite sensors stems from the need to offer complete continuous monitoring of each volcanological phenomenon, taking advantage of each sensor's own characteristics.

How to cite: Di Bella, G. S., Corradino, C., Cariello, S., Torrisi, F., and Del Negro, C.: A Remote Sensing Data Fusion algorithm for Near Real time monitoring of Volcanic Radiative Power, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1030, 2024.

X1.178
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EGU24-2013
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ECS
Léa Zuccali, Virginie Pinel, and Yajing Yan

In a perspective of volcanic hazard assessment, it is fundamental to be able to determine as early as possible whether, where and when the magma that has started to propagate from the storage zone will reach the surface. The propagation phase is generally rapid, lasting from a few hours to a few months, but it induces seismicity and deformation signals recorded by continuous sensors and InSAR data. Furthermore, dynamic numerical models can be used to calculate the trajectory and the velocity of magma propagation as a function of the physical properties of the magma and the crust, and the initial conditions (local stress field and magma reservoir location).

Data assimilation is a method that combines a dynamic model with current and past observations based on error statistics and predicts the future state of the observed system.This method therefore appears to be an appropriate tool for addressing the need to predict the position and timing of a volcanic eruption based on available models and observations.

The particle filter is particularly noteworthy for its ability to handle nonlinear models and non-Gaussian error statistics. This method is based on a representation of the probability density of the dynamic model by a discrete set of model states (particles) and relies on Bayes' theorem.

In order to assess the potential of the particle filter for tracking magma propagation at depth, we implemented this assimilation strategy by considering, in two dimensions, the case of magma propagating beneath a caldera in an extensional stress field. The input parameters of the propagation model are the initial position of the magma at depth, its viscosity and driving pressure, the volume of magma injected, the crustal rigidity, and the local stress field characterized by the balance between tectonic extension and caldera unloading. Surface displacements induced by magma propagation are estimated using an Okada dislocation model. We first validate our assimilation strategy with synthetic data in order to take into account geodetic data recorded on volcanic systems in the future.

How to cite: Zuccali, L., Pinel, V., and Yan, Y.: Assimilation of geodetic data for volcanic hazard assessment in near-real time by means of a particle filter, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2013, 2024.

X1.179
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EGU24-5254
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ECS
Mirko Messina, Roberto Di Martino, and Antonio Paonita

Soil gas monitoring proves to be a powerful tool for studying volcanoes and their subsurface dynamics. Various gas species are examined as indicators of volcanic activity, with a focus on understanding the processes governing gas emissions. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is of particular interest due to its significant release during both active volcanic periods and periods of dormancy. Hydrogen (H2) concentration is also analysed to gain insights into the oxygen fugacity of magmatic gases, a parameter that influences the redox state and the distribution of elements among solid, fused, and gas phases.

To effectively monitor volcanic gases, automated geochemical stations are deployed to simultaneously measure multiple gas species. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of reducing capacity monitoring data collected at Stromboli during the 2021-2023 time window. This station records data on molecular hydrogen (H2) concentration, CO2 flux, CO2 concentration, soil water content, atmospheric pressure, temperature, and relative humidity.

The dataset underwent normalization of variables and filtering processes of spurious data to facilitate Principal Component Analysis (PCA), allowing for the identification of linear dependencies among the variables. The results of the PCA reveal insights into the relationships of the monitored parameters, shedding light on potential factors influencing volcanic activity.

These data reveal variations in reducing capacity and soil CO2 flux that correlate with changes in Stromboli's eruptive activity. The delay in CO2 variations following shifts in reducing capacity is attributed to the advective-diffusive transport of gases through the volcanic rock formations. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the volcanic degassing of Stromboli and shows the efficacy of combining multiple regression analysis methods for filtering geochemical datasets. This research enhances our understanding of volcanic behaviour and aids in volcano monitoring efforts.

How to cite: Messina, M., Di Martino, R., and Paonita, A.: Advancing volcano surveillance through soil gas monitoring: insights from Stromboli Island, Italy., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5254, 2024.

X1.180
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EGU24-5284
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ECS
Sofie Rolain, Dries Peumans, and Benoît Smets

Satellite-based thermal remote sensing is a useful tool for monitoring volcanoes. It involves detecting thermal anomalies, called 'hotspots,' and calculating the radiative energy emitted by volcanic activity. Various volcanic hot spot detection algorithms already exist in the literature. However, every algorithm has its advantages and disadvantages, as they are limited depending on the tradeoffs made during algorithm development, the sensor used for aquisition, and  the geometry of acquisition. Depending on the algorithm used, different results are obtained from the same data and, hence, different interpretations can be made in terms of, e.g., energy emitted, effusion rates, and eruption duration. In the present work, we aim at creating a new hotspot detection algorithm using MODIS and VIIRS imagery, which allows us to efficiently look at the dynamics of thermal emissions coming from persistent lava lakes, i.e., bassins of lava maintained molten through thermal convection and outgassing. We investigate the applicability of sensor fusion ideas, using multiple bands, and incorporating cloud cover information. We expect that by combining all available data the robustness of the detection process will increase.

How to cite: Rolain, S., Peumans, D., and Smets, B.: Thermal remote sensing of lava lakes: a comparison of approaches, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5284, 2024.

X1.181
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EGU24-5555
Tom Pering, Thomas Wilkes, Patricia Nadeau, Silvana Hidalgo, Felipe Aguilera, Susana Layana, Nurnaning Aisyah, Hanik Humaida, Alfabi Sakti, and Christoph Kern

Ultraviolet (UV) cameras provide advantages in spatial and temporal resolution for the measurement of sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission rates, when compared to the more common differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) instruments. Up to this point, however, most instances of UV camera usage are restricted to discrete campaigns, rather than permanent installations. Notable exceptions include Stromboli, Etna, and Kīlauea (2013-2018). The reasons for this are largely related to cost, with commercially available UV cameras often being prohibitively expensive, and also to the challenges associated with developing robust algorithms for automated retrieval of emission rates from the collected imagery. The PiCam, developed at the University of Sheffield, is a new UV camera system designed for permanent installation in the field and provides automatic measurements of SO2 emission rates (for full details see Wilkes et al., 2023, doi: 10.3389/feart.2023.1088992). The PiCam is currently installed at six volcanoes globally: Kīlauea (USA), Cotopaxi and Reventador (Ecuador), Lascar and Lastarria (Chile), and Merapi (Indonesia). Each location has unique requirements and setup, for instance the UV cameras at Reventador and Lastarria operate autonomously but require user visits for data download. Those at Kīlauea and Merapi are integrated within existing telemetry solutions, while at Lascar and Cotopaxi we have begun to integrate Starlink satellite data telemetry alongside our cameras. We present some early results from measurements at Kīlauea where emission rates are compared to more traditional measurements using DOAS. Since the PiCam installation in 2022, the system has recorded multiple styles of activity, from low-level degassing during periods of quiescence to syn-eruptive emissions exceeding 10,000 t/d. Our work highlights continuing challenges of processing of UV camera data, where automated protocols and real-time processing for reliable emission rate retrievals are still in their infancy.

How to cite: Pering, T., Wilkes, T., Nadeau, P., Hidalgo, S., Aguilera, F., Layana, S., Aisyah, N., Humaida, H., Sakti, A., and Kern, C.: Application of a low-cost ultraviolet camera solution for permanent sulphur dioxide measurements at six volcanoes worldwide., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5555, 2024.

X1.183
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EGU24-19259
Alessandro La Spina, Mike Burton, Pietro Bonfanti, and Filippo Murè

Identifying changes on volcano unrest condition and tracking the evolution of eruptive activity are fundamental for volcanic surveillance and monitoring. Under this perspective, magmatic gases play a key role; therefore, monitoring changes in volcanic plume composition is essential.

Between and during each eruption large systematic variations in the volcanic plume composition can be observed on Mt. Etna. Specifically, gas emissions implicitly contain critical information on the state of the volcano in terms of magma dynamics in the plumbing system.

New technologies have improved the ability to identify gas emissions through remote sensing. Since March 2000, the remote sensing group of INGV-OE Catania has regularly measured the volcanic gas in the plume emitted from Mt. Etna by solar occultation FTIR on average 2-3 acquisitions per week. These measurements allow to quantify the column amounts of SO2, HCl and HF in the path between the instrument and the Sun, and obtain SO2/HCl, HCl/HF and SO2/HF ratios

Extracting meaningful information and gaining new insights from 23 years data collection is a challenging task. Here, we perform a data driven investigation exploiting the relationships between volcanic activity and volcanic gas emissions from 2000 to 2023 period. A general decrease in SO2/HCl ratio, due to an increase in the halogens emission rate (HCl and HF), is observed during eruptions that results closely connected with the central conduit of Etna (e.g. 2004 and 2008).This evidence suggests that magma residence time is required to sustain an efficient halogen degassing via summit craters and the lava flow draining gradually led to a break in the magma convective overturn within a shallow reservoir. Whereas, eruptions not connected with the central conduit of Etna (e.g. 2002-03) are preceded by several weeks of elevated SO2/HCl ratio, produced by a relative reduction in HCl emission consistent with inefficient magma circulation that partially inhibits ascent of magma thought the central conduit of Etna enhances the probability of lateral eruptions.

How to cite: La Spina, A., Burton, M., Bonfanti, P., and Murè, F.: Unveiling magma dynamics behind geochemical data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19259, 2024.

X1.184
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EGU24-16876
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ECS
Ines Tomašek, Pierre-Yves Tournigand, Daniele Andronico, Julia Eychenne, Claire Horwell, Ulrich Kueppers, Jacopo Taddeucci, Philippe Claeys, and Matthieu Kervyn

Tephra fallout is a common feature of different styles of eruptions and is the most widespread of volcanic hazards. Fallouts containing substantial amounts of fine-grained particles pose a concern for human health since exposure to respirable PM (sub-10 μm, i.e., PM10) is associated with adverse health effects. The products of effusive or poorly explosive events (e.g., lava fountains, strombolian eruptions) and their impacts are less researched as they typically generate rather coarse-grained deposits. Yet, reworking of tephra deposits by wind, traffic or other human activities can potentially alter the initial grain size distribution of a deposit and generate finer material. Remobilisation of such reworked deposits can affect ambient air quality (i.e., PM10 levels), thus leading to an increased exposure hazard.

In this study, we conducted in situ experiments on the slopes of Etna volcano, Italy, which frequently covers neighbouring urban areas with coarse-grained basaltic tephra. We aimed to understand the changes in tephra grain size distribution and airborne PM10 concentration associated with vehicular activity. For this purpose, we drove a small SUV-type car over an area of a road that we covered with tephra, and investigated the outcomes as a function of 1) the number of car passages (between 10 and 70), 2) the starting thickness of the tephra deposit (between 2 and 10 mm) and 3) vehicle speed (between 20 and 50 km/h). The results show that the grain size of the original tephra deposit decreases with the number of car passages, most notably with higher vehicle velocity (50 km/h) and increasing deposit thickness. Airborne PM10 increased with a higher number of car passages, but also with increased tephra thickness and increased vehicle speed. Our observations have important implications for the management of tephra fallouts in urban areas. We have shown that vehicles will change the grain size distribution of basaltic ash by comminution so local communities can expect that, after an eruption, concentrations of PM10 may increase with time and affect exposures close to roads.

How to cite: Tomašek, I., Tournigand, P.-Y., Andronico, D., Eychenne, J., Horwell, C., Kueppers, U., Taddeucci, J., Claeys, P., and Kervyn, M.: Tephra comminution by vehicles and resuspension of volcanic ash: impact on ambient air quality in urban areas, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16876, 2024.

X1.185
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EGU24-18729
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ECS
Andre Geisler, Matthias Hort, Sonja Behnke, Harald Edens, Taishi Yamada, Masato Iguchi, and Haruhisa Nakamichi

Volcanic eruptions are enigmatic, not in the least because of volcanic lightning during eruptions, which is still not fully understood. In an effort to better constrain conditions under which electrical discharges occur, we use data from a multicomponent geophysical network installed in 2019 at Sakurajima volcano, Japan. The network includes one vertically scanning Doppler radar to resolve the internal structure of the eruption column at a low temporal resolution, and two fixed Doppler radar systems to resolve the dynamics of the eruption near the vent at high temporal resolution. Eruption onset times were determined using a total of 5 infrasound stations. Electrical discharges were detected by three electric field mills (EFM), a thunderstorm detector from Biral (BTD), a lightning mapping array sensor (LMA) as well as a fast antenna (FA). In addition, meteorological conditions are monitored by a local weather station and eruptions were recorded by two different cameras.

 

Sakurajima volcano is known to exhibit frequent complex eruptions/explosions often exhibiting a sequence of single pulses at intervals down to a few minutes. From our network, we generated an eruption catalog spanning 7 months of activity between June and Dec 2019. Out of this catalog, we select representative examples of multiple pulse events of different strength in terms of erupted mass, plume height, and eruption velocities. For each pulse within such a sequence, we analyzed the electrical activity as well as extracted eruption velocities, eruption volumes, plume heights, and eruption onsets among others. We find that the timing of the electrical discharges is correlated with the onsets of single pulses within a sequence. Furthermore, we can detect changes in the electrical activity ranging from times of CRF signals from small streamer discharges up to volcanic lightning while being able to track the erupted mass and plume extend at the same time. While electrical activity can increase together with eruptive strength, we also observe quite “strong” eruptions with little detectable discharges. On the other hand, less energetic eruptions are observed to produce electrical discharges, especially when the plume of a pulse rises through pre-existing ash clouds in the crater region.

How to cite: Geisler, A., Hort, M., Behnke, S., Edens, H., Yamada, T., Iguchi, M., and Nakamichi, H.: On the occurrence of volcanic lightning during vulcanian eruptions at Sakurajima volcano, Japan, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18729, 2024.

X1.186
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EGU24-19253
Giovannella Pecoraino, Franco Tassi, Sergio Calabrese, Jacopo Cabassi, Orlando Vaselli, Dmitri Rouwet, Giancarlo Tamburello, Francesco Capecchiacci, and Stefania Venturi

Vulcano Island, an active closed conduit volcano in south Sicily, hosts from 2018 the Vulcano International Training Summer School of Geochemistry. The basic idea is to share scientific knowledge and experiences in a multi-aspect geochemical community, using local resources with a low-cost organization in order to allow as many students as possible access to the school. The Vulcano International Training Summer School of Geochemistry is addressed to students, graduate students, senior graduate students and  fellows, coming not only from Italy but also from European and non-European countries, aiming to bring together the next generation of researchers active in studies concerning the geochemistry and the budget of volcanic gases. The main aim of the school is to bring the next generation of researchers, active in studies concerning geochemistry in volcanic environments, and to introduce them with innovative direct sampling and remote sensing techniques. Furthermore, it gives young scientists an opportunity to experiment and evaluate new protocols and techniques to be used on volcanic fluid emissions, covering a broad variety of methods. The teaching approach includes practical demonstrations and field applications, conducted by teachers of international level. Students therefore have the opportunity to learn by practicing sampling techniques. Practical exercises include: direct sampling of high-temperature fumaroles and plume measurement techniques in the fumarolic crater field; direct sampling of low-temperature gas emissions and submarine emissions; measurement of diffuse soil gas fluxes of endogenous gases at Levante Bay Beach; sampling of groundwater and dissolved gases, and measurements of physical-chemical parameters by using multiparametric probes, in thermal waters in the Vulcano village. Also this year the school will take place from 17 to 21 June 2024.

How to cite: Pecoraino, G., Tassi, F., Calabrese, S., Cabassi, J., Vaselli, O., Rouwet, D., Tamburello, G., Capecchiacci, F., and Venturi, S.: Vulcano International training Summer School of Geochemistry , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19253, 2024.

X1.187
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EGU24-21214
Matthias Hort, Andre Geisler, Fransizska Heck, Sonja Behnke, Herald Edens, and Masato Iguchi

The origin of volcanic lightning is still a matter of intense research because it may complement other monitoring techniques in detecting volcanic eruptions at remote or not well monitored volcanoes. Various methods have been used to detect electrical discharges over the last decades and here we compare four different methods for the detection of electrical discharges which were operated in late 2019 at Sakurajima volcano. The electrical activity was observed by an electric field mill (EFM, which measures the static electrical field at 10 S/s (samples/second)), a thunderstorm detector from Biral (BTD, also measures the static electrical field at 100 S/s), as well as a lightning mapping array station (LMA, measuring VHF electromagnetic radiation) and a fast antenna FA (time constant τ = 10-4 s⁻¹, 180MS/s). We developed special algorithms to identify electrical discharges in the EFM and BTD data sets because those were the most continuous data sets available to us. From a period of high volcanic activity during which also data from the other instruments were available, we then picked several eruptions characterized by different types of electrical discharges. We analyzed the number of discharges detected by each instrument as well as how well the amplitudes (electrical field changes) are resolved by the different instruments. We find good correlations of detected signal strength between the FA and EFM data, the correlation between these data and the BTD is especially for larger events not as perfect. In order to analyze this problem, we use the FA measurements to downsample and synthetically reconstruct the BTD data set, showing deviations for larger amplitudes as well. Overall, the instruments show good agreement on detecting electrical discharges within volcanic eruptions with differences on the detection of „assumable weaker“ signals. We highlight the advantages and disadvantages of the different techniques in terms of detecting electrical discharges during volcanic eruptions. We finish discussing how the different instruments can be used to determine electric field changes as well as further investigate the type of electrical discharges detected.

How to cite: Hort, M., Geisler, A., Heck, F., Behnke, S., Edens, H., and Iguchi, M.: Detecting volcanic lightning with different methods: a comparison, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21214, 2024.

X1.188
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EGU24-13558
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Michael Ramsey, James Thompson, and Jean-Francois Smekens

Thermal monitoring of volcanic activity has become common over the past 25 years and is well integrated into the set of tools at several volcano observatories. These data are acquired from a range of sensors including permanent ground-stations, less frequent campaign mode deployments from the ground and air, as well as orbital remote sensing. The fundamental ability to forecast a new eruption using orbital TIR data remains aspirational despite decades of data acquisition, modeling, and analysis. In contrast, large-scale thermal change detection is routine and used to rapidly identify a new eruption and monitor its evolution. Sensors with lower spatial (≥ 1 km) and higher temporal (≤ 24 h) resolutions are best suited for acquiring these data and provide near-real time information. Our recent work examines higher spatial, lower temporal resolution low-Earth orbit data to identify precursory thermal eruption signals. Foundational to this is the ability to retrieve accurate subtle (1-2 K) temperature changes, which are easily overlooked using current change detection approaches. Long time series orbital TIR data enable a unique opportunity to quantify these low-level anomalies and small eruption plumes over long periods. Most significant is the finding that the smaller, subtle detections served as precursory signals in ~81% of eruptions. Over the next decade, several high spatial (~ 60 m) resolution orbital sensors are planned that provide near-daily TIR data at every volcano, vastly improving thermal baselines and detection of new activity. One of these, the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) mission, contains an infrared instrument, which also plans volcano-specific data products that are crucial for accurate daily monitoring of volcanic temperatures and degassing rates. In preparation for the SBG mission’s Volcanic Activity (VA) data product, we have developed a low-cost, ground-based, multi-wavelength TIR sensor known as the MMT-gasCam. NASA has funded a plan to use this instrument to measure small, passive plumes in emission to determine the detection threshold of sulfur dioxide in the TIR, its conversion to sulfate aerosol, and the temperature of the emitted gas/vent in volcanic plumes. Results will help to validate the future VA data product. However, despite the promise of SBG data, the fundamental step-change in orbital volcanology will not come until high-speed orbital data are possible. A proposed hypertemporal TIR mission would acquire these data at sub-minute scales to determine mass and thermal flux rates of gas emissions, eruptive ash plumes, and lava flows. With such a mission, data now acquired by current ground-based cameras will become possible from orbit for the first time.

How to cite: Ramsey, M., Thompson, J., and Smekens, J.-F.: What we need in thermal infrared (TIR) data to forecast volcanic activity: From new ground-based sensors to a rapid-revisit orbital concept, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13558, 2024.

X1.189
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EGU24-15372
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ECS
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Highlight
Lore Vanhooren, Thomas Hermans, and Corentin Caudron

Geo-electric methods such as Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Induced Polarization (IP) have become increasingly important in the characterization of volcanic and geothermal systems. The methods rely on the electrical properties of the subsurface. In volcanic settings, the main influences are temperature, gas content (i.e. saturation), mineralizations, and the presence of alteration clays.

The ERupT project aims to assess the suitability of ERT to visualize the dynamics in hydrothermal systems. With the long-term aim of improving hazard assessment associated with phreatic/hydrothermal eruptions. In that context, a semi-permanent ERT setup was installed at the Reykjanes geothermal area in Iceland. In October 2022, the monitoring system was installed on-site, automatically measuring one profile per day, with currently 15 months of uninterrupted data, except for 5 days due to technical issues. The profile is 355 meters long and has a depth of investigation of 30 to 50 meters.

The 2021 eruption at Fagradalsfjall has marked a new age of volcanism in the Reykjanes peninsula, 2023 was marked by two eruptions. The first eruption happened in the Fagradalsfjall system on July 10th. The second eruption started on 18 December, North of Grindavik, in the Svartsengi system. The eruption sites are located at respectively 30 and 10 km from the field site. Although the ERT system is located at a considerable distance from the eruption sites and the investigation depth is quite shallow, we observed signals possibly related to both eruptions and accompanying unrest, manifesting as a significant increase in resistance (figure1).

The first peak in resistance happened between 19 and 26 June with an increase of more than 100%, shortly after that, the Fagradalsfjall system erupted. A second peak is observed at the end of August, here the increase happens slowly, as opposed to the sudden peak in June, with a steady increase starting on August 8th, reaching a peak on August 30th. Contradictory to the first example, no immediate eruption occurred after this second peak.

In this context, an increase in resistance is likely caused by a drop in saturation due to high gas levels, which can be caused by magma degassing during the uprise. This raises the question of the time difference between the peaks and the subsequent eruptions, possible factors are the difference in morphological context (sill vs dyke intrusion) and preferential flowpaths relative to our monitoring site.  It should also be noted that this behavior is not observed in all data points, hence advanced processing is needed combined with interpretation using data from other methods. Tremor and soil temperature data are available along the ERT profile, together with one C02 sensor in the center of the profile.

To our knowledge, this is the first time that ERT has been used for daily monitoring of a volcanic system. With joint interpretation to deduce the signal origin, we believe that ERT can be a valuable addition to volcanic monitoring networks.

Figure 1: Resistance evolution in one measurement point, eruptions are indicated by the red lines.

How to cite: Vanhooren, L., Hermans, T., and Caudron, C.: Is ERT suited for the continuous monitoring of volcanic systems? A case study during the 2023 unrest of the Reykjanes system., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15372, 2024.