Successful adaptation to climate change worldwide will require many local climate change risk assessments. To this end, societies need access to usable climate change information to better prepare and adapt to future risks as well as opportunities. Co-produced, user-driven climate services are a recognized means of improving the effective generation and utilization of climate information to inform decision-making and support adaptation to climate change. However, there is a structural lack of appropriate, tailored climate services and tools, particularly in developing countries. In addition, there has been limited evaluation of the process of co-developing climate service products.

This study describes and evaluates the steps and methods used to co-develop a global hydrological climate service (in the frame of the CO-MICC project), specifically, a knowledge portal on global freshwater-related hazards of climate change, in a transdisciplinary, participative process jointly with providers, local to regional users, and water experts. This comprised the co-production of (i) the relevant hydrological indicators (to be both user-relevant and scientifically sound concerning the global multi-model information basis), (ii) the integration of uncertainty in the provided visual representations of these indicators, and (iii) the necessary supporting information that guides and enables utilization of the provided hazard information. Participants from seven workshops with stakeholders from focus regions in Europe and Northern Africa included local researchers, experts from meteorological services and decision-makers from regional and national hydrological agencies. Together, we co-produced relevant model output variables and appropriate end-user products encompassing static and dynamically generated information in a web portal. The global-scale information products include interactive maps, diagrams, time series graphs, and suitably co-developed statistics, with appropriate visualization of uncertainty.

In addition, the integration of local needs into new co-developed indicators was necessary where standard indicators are not scientifically suitable with respect to the information basis. Specifically based on understanding the underlying need of the stakeholder and the capabilities of the global hydrological model output, an alternative indicator “consecutive dry years” was co-developed to integrate freshwater deficit information for water managers. Lessons learned will be discussed with a particular focus on the challenges of the participatory process in the context of the climate service co-development.

The CO-MICC knowledge portal (www.co-micc.eu) enables access to this information to a broad range of stakeholders from around the world (policy makers, NGOs, the private sector, the research community, the public in general) for their region of interest, enabling them to account for climate change in their risk portfolios. In addition, it provides information on the optimal design and methods of co-development processes.

How to cite: Kneier, F., Woltersdorf, L., and Döll, P.: Co-developing a global hydrological service to support climate change risk assessment and adaptation: providing stakeholder-elicited hazard information processed from uncertain multi-model ensemble output, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19228, 2024.

The escalating challenge of climate change, notably the changes in rainfall patterns, poses a significant threat to agricultural practices in Brazil, particularly in regions like Novo Progresso, Para, notorious for extensive deforestation and the annual "Day of Fire". We introduce an innovative mobile Augmented Reality (AR) application designed to aid farmers and local communities in adapting to these shifting rainfall patterns.

Our AR climate service application, developed for smartphones running the iOS and Android platforms using Unity 3D and ARKit/ARCore libraries, offers an interactive visualization of the study area. Users can view a detailed map, including administrative boundaries, protected zones, and geographical features, to explore various land uses and simulate potential changes in rainfall and crop yield. By selecting a specific plot of land within the app, users gain the capability to tailor the land's usage parameters, including the type of crops cultivated (if any) and the agricultural management strategies employed. Combining their input of local knowledge with climatic and agricultural models, the tool is able to provide them with projections of the rainfall change for the selected plot as well as the anticipated effect on crop yields. Stakeholders can experiment with different crops and management strategies and observe simulated outcomes on crop yields under different climate scenarios. Additionally, the tool supports multi-user simulations to enable effective community planning. This interactive approach is aimed at improving local decision-making regarding land use, highlighting the potential consequences of various agricultural strategies.

The content and features of the AR tool are grounded in interviews conducted in Para, Brazil, with a focus on incorporating local insights regarding crops, soil types, and existing management strategies. The initial phase of this project included pre-interviews which revealed a general lack of urgency among farmers regarding climate change. Our application aims to visually demonstrate the significance of climate change, linking the farmers’ perceived changes in rainfall with larger environmental trends.

The first iteration of the application was presented to a diverse group of stakeholders in the town of Santa Julia, including farmers, local government officials, and agricultural experts. Their engagement with the tool was followed by semi-structured interviews to gather feedback on usability and effectiveness. The response was highly encouraging, with stakeholders unanimously supporting further development and recognizing the application's potential in visualizing and combating the impacts of climate change.

Our presentation will discuss the iterative development process of the AR application, insights from stakeholder pre-surveys and testing sessions, and plans for further development. Emphasis will be placed on the tool's role in facilitating community-scale decision-making in a region marked by complex power dynamics and environmental challenges. Through this climate service tool, we aim to bridge the gap between scientific research and practical, community-led climate adaptation strategies.

How to cite: Metelitsa, V. and Máñez Costa, M.: Visualizing change, cultivating resilience: An augmented reality driven approach to climate adaptation planning in Brazilian agriculture, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19822, 2024.

This research tackles the multifaceted challenges inherent in the design of climate service training programs, with a specific focus on the context of C3S User Learning Services. The heterogeneity of actors involved, including producers, providers, intermediaries, and users, often leads to misalignments attributable to overlooked nuances in learning needs. The primary objective is to establish consensus among trainers involved in the C3S User Learning Services regarding the identification of targeted audiences, their associated knowledge and skills, and the interests pivotal for the success of capacity-building initiatives. Utilizing the Delphi method, trainers participate in iterative rounds of questionnaires, wherein statistical measures and qualitative assessments guide the refinement process. The study introduces specific levels of agreement, distinguishing between poor, average, and strong agreement based on percentage evaluations. The structured yet flexible approach incorporates a pre-testing stage involving external experts to ensure survey clarity. With the potential inclusion of a fourth round in cases of low consensus, the research aspires to comprehensively address the diverse learning needs within the climate service domain, ultimately enhancing the efficacy of training programs, exemplified by C3S User Learning Services

How to cite: del Pozo, M., van der Bolt, B., Gulikers, J., den Brok, P., and Ludwig, F.: Enhancing the Design of Climate Service Training Programs: Identifying Targeted Audiences for the User Learning Services for the Copernicus Program, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6000, 2024.

Rainfed agriculture constitutes the backbone of the economy in many regions of the Global South. Historically, smallholder farmers used their local knowledge to forecast the weather. However, with the increase in climatic variability, they can no longer solely rely on their experience to accurately forecast the weather. DROP App is a hydro-climate information service developed through a co-production approach to address the weather and climate information needs of farmers. The app gathers weather forecast from both local farmers and scientific sources, and presents this information to users to enable them to make informed decisions regarding agriculture. To test its proof-of-concept, the DROP app was implemented in five rice communities in northern Ghana. The app was introduced to farmers, who received training on it use, as well as built their capacity on weather and climate-related phenomena and the use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). Following the end of the cropping season, farmers evaluated the app and the results revealed that co-production of information played a crucial role to its adoption in relation to other similar platforms. Farmers consider the app as a relatively accurate and reliable source of information for planning agricultural activities. Using forecasts obtained from the app, farmers adjusted their farming activities, such as time of sowing, planting and weeding dates, fertilizer and herbicide application, and harvesting. They additionally demonstrated a significant level of knowledge about weather phenomena as a result to their engagement and capacity building. Although some limitations exist, the DROP app has potential to deliver actionable knowledge for climate-smart farm decision-making and thus, facilitate effective agriculture management.

How to cite: Nauta, L., Sutanto, S., Supit, I., Kranjac-Berisavljevic, G., Dogbey, R., Jamaldeen, B., and Paparrizos, S.: Hydro-climate information services for smallholder farmers: DROP app design, implementation, and evaluation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-22171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-22171, 2024.

Long term projections suggest the Mediterranean area as a hotspot for increasing drought and extreme heat events with remarkable cascading effects on several economic sectors, such as agriculture, energy production, urban uses and on ecosystem services. The adoption of climate services designed to aid near real time operational choices, including seasonal forecasts, could help in better planning the use of a scarce resource, as water, both at the local (e.g., farm) and the basin level.

These short-term tools may have positive feedback also in a longer run. The PRIMA Project ACQUAOUNT (https://www.acquaount.eu/) aims to produce climate services to support robust decision making for water resource allocation at an operational time scale, and an off-line tool to evaluate how the adoption of such tools together with innovative management policies will affect water availability in a longer perspective. It will integrate the hydrological, climatological, and economic dimensions to provide information on long term sustainability of water availability to decision makers and water users in four pilot sites, namely the Tirso basin (Sardinia), Zarqa river basin (Jordan), Jeffara basin (Tunisia), and Upper Litani River basin (Lebanon). They are characterized by remarkable differences in terms of water availability, water sources, users, and management options; thus, the off-line tool will combine users’ needs and a simplified framework to be applied both in information rich and scarce contexts.

The tool is forced by weather observations available in-situ (where available) and complemented/replaced by authoritative data sources freely available (e.g., Copernicus Regional Reanalysis, CERRA); over the future time horizons up to 2100, an ensemble of global climate projections is adopted, which included in 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) informing the most update cycle of IPCC Assessment Reports. The main weather outputs regulating soil water budget are statistically downscaled by exploiting a non-parametric quantile mapping approach calibrated by using CERRA reanalysis under two concentration scenarios (Shared Socio-Economic Pathway, SSP): SSP2_4.5 and SSP5_8.5, a “mid-way” and “pessimistic” scenario, respectively.

Finally, the physical effects, (i.e., water anomalies), are translated into economic terms using a simplified avoided losses approach, evaluating changes in co-designed indicators for water uses according to different scenarios. Future water availability is compared with a management rule for water provisioning, such that there will be a connection between physical water availability and restrictions that affect the amount of water available for different uses in the pilot site. Finally, water restrictions impact the economic, social, and environmental performance of selected sectors. Primarily, the socio-economic part will assess changes in economic, social, and environmental indicators to evaluate and compare costs in each scenario.

The final aim of the integrated service is to compare alternative future pathways of water availability. These pathways are co-developed with local stakeholders and include a status quo scenario, where current management rules for water distribution are supposed, an ACQUAOUNT integrated scenario, where the water resource is supposed to be deployed using the AQUAOUNT short term tools, and site-specific scenarios e.g. inclusion of new management rules or new water sources.

How to cite: Delpiazzo, E., Rianna, G., Padulano, R., Reder, A., and Bosello, F.: From weather forcing to economic losses: an integrated climate service for long term projections on water availability., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19874, 2024.

The amount of water available for the production of natural mineral water is affected by the variability of the flow regime in the springs from which the water is extracted. This variability occurs at different time scales (seasonal and inter-annual), being more pronounced in mountainous Mediterranean areas. Since water quality remains constant in the aquifers throughout the hydrological year, the main uncertainty in the plant's production lies in the springs flow regime. In snow dominated areas it is necessary to analyse both the influence of snow dynamics on the springs flow regime, and to establish the response time between the rainfall events and the increase in the subsurface flow regime.

A forecasting model has been developed for several springs within the Guadalfeo river basin (southern Spain), where a bottling plant is operated by an international company. The model combines two approaches: a conceptual model (MCAL); and a seasonal forecast model (MPEL).

MCAL is based on linear adjustments between measured monthly mean flow data at the different locations of the springs, and measured series of rainfall and snowfall from two meteorological stations in the area, as well as adjustments with the mean monthly flow in the antecedent months. The best results were obtained between mean monthly flow and the mean monthly flow of antecedent months, with low relative errors (0,2%-10%) in all the locations for twelve months ahead.

MPEL allows to forecast groundwater supplies six months ahead in the different locations, from two products generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): Multi-model seasonal reforecasts of river discharge for Europe and Multi-model seasonal forecasts of river discharge for Europe from January 2021 to present. The hydrological model WiMMed (Watershed Integrated Model in Mediterranean Areas) has been implemented and calibrated, to generate historical simulations in periods when there are no flow measurements at the springs. Using the ECMWF products and performing a bias-adjustment, the forecasts of the groundwater supplies are obtained for several possible future scenarios.

The results obtained showed the lowest mean relative error values with the MCAL forecasts from May to October (0.8%-8%), whereas the mean monthly flow from November to January was better predicted with the MPEL forecasts (1.3%-12%). The relative errors were similar with both models between February and April (3%-20%).

How to cite: Gómez-Beas, R., Contreras, E., Polo, M. J., and Aguilar, C.: Modelling and forecasting of water resources availability in mountainous Mediterranean springs, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17708, 2024.

Wildfires are an emerging risk in NW Europe, primarily due to increasingly conducive weather conditions resulting from climate change. This work examines the vital role of climate adaptation services to contribute to knowledge sharing and network building among professional stakeholders on a national level and within the region. Based on online survey responses from land managers/owners, forest managers/owners, fire services, and governments, we explore the intricacies of wildfire risk perception and the necessity of tailored climate and weather information for effective wildfire governance.

Our research investigates how climate information services can bolster wildfire risk reduction, emphasizing the development of these services as a knowledge-sharing and network-building approach. We explore how tailored, locally relevant solutions and a thorough process of knowledge exchange and learning can build networks, ultimately delivering actionable knowledge that fosters an awareness culture among stakeholders.

The work delves into the current perception and awareness of wildfire risks among professional stakeholders. We examined their risk awareness, preparedness, and responsibility perceptions, questioning whether experience with wildfires correlates with higher awareness or if stakeholders outside civil protection have lower preparedness perceptions. Additionally, we investigated the specific information stakeholders utilize for wildfire risk reduction, discerning whether weather, climate, or risk reduction information is more beneficial. This exploration includes an analysis of how this information correlates with preparedness, awareness, and responsibility perceptions and whether discrepancies exist between the use and needs of stakeholders.

Preliminary result indicate that the development of a wildfire weather annd climate infomration service may contribute to wildfire governance and risk reduction in North Western Europe. Currently there is high awareness among most wildfire professionals, but that stakeholders do not feel prepared for future wildfire conditions. More than half of the respondents didn't know about the Copernicus EFFIS wildfire services, indicating that marketing and usibility of these products need to be increased. Stakeholders prioritised short-term weather forecasts and risk reduction information above other information.

In conclusion, we argue for the strategic use of climate information services as a means of enhancing the governance of wildfires in NW Europe. By identifying the climate and weather information needs of professionals and examining their perceptions and awareness of wildfire risks, we aim to contribute to the development of more effective, informed strategies for wildfire prevention and management in the face of changing climatic conditions.

How to cite: Lambrechts, H., Stoof, C., Kroeze, C., Ludwig, F., and Papa, S.: Climate and Weather Information Services for better governance and risk reduction of wildfires in North Western Europe, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7472, 2024.

Extreme heat endangers human health and well-being and impairs the use of public spaces. Dortmund’s Integrated Climate Adaption Master Plan prioritizes actions and measures to improve heat resilience. This project supports the city of Dortmund (Germany) in attaining this goal, by deploying a state-of-the-art biometeorological sensor network and developing a nowcasting service for monitoring thermal comfort across the city. The project aims to pioneer the integration of thermal comfort data in smart-city ecosystems and provide actionable insights for the development of Dortmund’s Heat Action Plan. Modeled, remotely sensed, and in-situ data will be used to provide near-real-time information regarding the outdoor thermal conditions. City-officials of Dortmund are involved in the design of the dashboard, and the weather station network, ensuring they meet their needs. The collected data will be used in a series of on-ground actions, supporting the evaluation of existing climate adaption measures, and the design of new ones. These actions include the mapping of areas with high potential for planting trees , the investigation of changes in human behavior during hot days, and the assessment of backyard greening strategies. To engage with the local stakeholders, promote the role of citizen scientists, and disseminate the project, a series of workshops and on-site events are planned, such as climate comfort labs, mobile measurement campaigns, or climate walks with citizens. The overall goal of the project is for the city of Dortmund to adopt and integrate the developed network and nowcasting service into its smart-city ecosystem.

How to cite: Hüser, C., Weickhmann, L., Sismanidis, P., Kittner, J., and Bechtel, B.: Data2Resilience: Data-driven Urban Climate Adaption – A Biometeorological Sensor Network for Dortmund, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12624, 2024.

In Spain, the adaptation of the European Directive on energy performance of buildings (2010) has been implemented through the Technical Building Code (TBC), which divides the territory into climate zones and evaluates the energy performance of buildings based on them (2013). The TBC segments Spain according to seasons, differentiating winter months (from October to May), which correspond to those where heating is necessary, and summer months (from June to September), those where air conditioning is necessary. Resulting in a characterization according to the climate severity of summer (SCS) or winter (WCS) to evaluate their energy efficiency. However, this classification methodology could be improved if taking into account the warming process of recent decades.

Between 1971-2022 in Spain, the maximum temperatures increased on average, 3.54°C, as well as the minimum temperatures, 2.73°C; as well as an exponential increase in heat waves over the last decades (Roca et al., 2023). "Summer" has increased by almost two more months, with a corresponding reduction in the "winter months”. For this reason, the research proposes a modification of the SCS and WCS, considering that “summer” runs from May to October and “winter” from November to April. Therefore, the research aims to study the limitations of the BTC climate zones classification, and propose a new climatic classification that allows a more accurate energy performance certification of buildings.

The study uses the E-OBS dataset, with a spatial resolution of 0.1°x 0.1°. Its continuity over time helps to track and analyze long-term climate change trends. For this purpose, the paper obtained daily data of average (tg), maximum (tx) and minimum (tn) temperature, and solar radiation (qq) from 1991 to 2020. At the same time, the study incorporates a series of climatic indices into the analysis to differentiate more precisely the different climates. For warm season, we introduce thermal indices such as CD25 and CN20 through 'Summer Days' (tx＞25) and 'Tropical Nights' (tn＞20). These outdoor temperatures, tx>25 and tn>20, indicate the thresholds above which the indoor environment of homes should be cooled. On the other hand, for the cold season, were calculated the cold indices HD15 and HD0 through 'Winter Days' (tg＜15) and the 'Frost Days' (tn＜0).

Through Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the determining factors of the climatic severities of "summer" and "winter" are extracted. These factors allow, through K-means classification, the delimitation of the different climatic zones that, require cooling (SCS) or heating (WCS). To obtain higher resolution climate data, the climate classification obtained by E-OBS has been downscaled to 1000 meters using multiple regression analysis (OLS), considering longitude, latitude, altitude and sea distance as independent variables, and SCS and WCS as dependent variables.

Finally, the research proposes an improved climatic zones classification, and, therefore, establish a more accurate energy efficiency valuation of buildings. This improved methodology not only reflects regional climate variations more accurately, but can also serve as a key tool for urban planners and building designers, allowing them to implement more effective strategies based on local climate.

How to cite: Arellano, B., Zheng, Q., and Roca, J.: Climatic Zones Classification and Building Energy Efficiency in Spain., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5814, 2024.

The climatic loads should be considered in the structural design and construction of the greenhouses to ensure their overall stability and durability. The snow load (SL), defined as the weight of snow on a surface area per square meter, is particularly important because it can cause structure collapse and consequently significant economic damages. Characteristic snow load for different constructions is usually 50 years, however, greenhouse structures are usually designed for shorter periods. The classification and design of greenhouses are based on the European standard EN 13031–1 which also provides the procedure for snow load adjustments to appropriate return values. In this study, characteristic snow loads are analysed for Croatia. First, the general climatology of maximum snow load is prepared according to snow depth data from 117 stations across the country covering the period from 1968 to 2020. The results revealed four main climate snow regions in Croatia: mainland, mountainous, coastal hinterland, and Adriatic. The trend analysis showed a decreasing trend in maximum snow load data for the highest elevation stations, while a slight increase was detected for central continental and middle Adriatic areas, however, the trend is statistically significant only at two stations in the highlands. For calculating the characteristic snow load, the value associated with a 50-year return period, the Gumbel distribution was used. Non-stationarity of snow load data was tested by the likelihood ratio method which revealed no significant changes in the Gumbel distribution parameters. This led to the conclusion that a stationary model is sufficient to describe data at most stations. Besides the characteristic SL, the return values of maximum SL associated with the return periods of 5, 10, 15 and 50 years were estimated. Moving to the engineering perspective, the adjustment factors for the design of greenhouse structures given in the standard are also discussed.

How to cite: Cindric Kalin, K., Lukacevic, I., Nimac, I., and Percec Tadic, M.: Snow load climatology for design working lives of the greenhouse structures in Croatia, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17230, 2024.