Impact of changes in waterlogging due to climate change on crop rotation systems under different irrigation scheduling strategies and soil textures

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, raising the risk of crop waterlogging and adversely affecting global food production and food security. To investigate this issue, we used Aquacrop-OS and the Deficit Irrigation Toolbox to simulate the yields and water balance of the irrigated winter wheat-summer maize rotation system, the primary cropping system in the North China Plain.

We considered various climate scenarios, including historical data, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 projections for the 2050s, and SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2090s. To assess the risk of waterlogging and its impact on crop yields and irrigation scheduling due to climate change, we conducted statistical analyses of waterlogging events and yield variations under two irrigation conditions: full irrigation (with no water deficit) and optimized deficit irrigation under different total water limitations.

Additionally, we employed cluster analysis to evaluate the vulnerability of different soil textures to waterlogging risks. This study aims to provide theoretical guidance for optimizing agricultural water management and drainage planning in response to climate change.