EGU25-10498, updated on 15 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10498
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
External radiative forcing partly explains the Europe winter cooling in 1998-2012
Lingling Suo1, Ingo Bethke2, Noel Keenlyside2,1, and Francois Counillon1,2
Lingling Suo et al.
  • 1Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Center for Climate , Bergen
  • 2Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen

The Eurasia continent underwent significant winter cooling from 1998 to 2012, occurring within the context of global warming. This phenomenon has primarily been linked to internal variability, as previous research indicates; however, discussions regarding its underlying causes continue. Based on the simulations with both combined and individual external forcing, this study suggests that combined external radiative forcing accounts for approximately a quarter of the observed winter cooling in Europe from 1998 to 2012 by contributing to a negative North Atlantic oscillation. Among all individual external forcings, the influence of ozone, which includes the effects of solar cycle 23 from maximum to minimum, is most prominent.

How to cite: Suo, L., Bethke, I., Keenlyside, N., and Counillon, F.: External radiative forcing partly explains the Europe winter cooling in 1998-2012, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10498, 2025.