Exploring the Drivers of Residential Photovoltaic Adoption in Italy: Insights from Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Analyses

The development of rooftop photovoltaic (RPV) systems presents significant advantages for energy and territorial planning, including the utilization of existing urban spaces and the decentralization of energy production. This study investigates the factors influencing RPV adoption across Italy, focusing on economic, demographic, environmental, and socio-cultural dimensions.

Using a multi-scale framework, we analyzed adoption patterns at national, electric market area, and regional levels through four complementary modeling techniques: linear regression, random forests, correlation analysis, and spatial econometric regression. Random forests proved effective in capturing complex, non-linear interactions, while spatial econometric models highlighted the influence of geographic proximity on adoption rates.

Key drivers of RPV adoption include population density, income levels, and characteristics of the built environment, which were consistently significant across scales. Environmental factors such as altitude gained prominence at more localized levels, emphasizing the importance of territorial context. Additionally, neighborhood effects and peer influence emerged as critical in shaping adoption patterns, revealing the interplay of social and spatial dynamics. The multi-scale approach reveals the nuanced influence of variables, showing how their significance shifts depending on the spatial scale of analysis.