Landslide Dynamics in the Vicinity of the Mingachevir and Shamkir Reservoirs (Azerbaijan): Insights from InSAR Analysis

Large landslides near water reservoirs represent a critical hazard, with the potential to cause dam breaches or overtopping, posing severe risks to infrastructure and downstream areas. To evaluate landslide activity on the slopes above the Mingachevir and Shamkir Water Reservoirs, we applied InSAR time series analysis using the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) method. Our study focused on ground movement along the northeast limb of the Boz Dag anticline near the Mingachevir Reservoir and cliffs above the Shamkir Reservoir. Results revealed ground displacements of up to 5 cm per year on the northern slopes of the Boz Dag anticline, with the most active areas located over 2 km from the dam. The observed movement generally exhibited a linear trend, with no evidence of noticeable acceleration. Overall, the largest movements appear to be at the base of the slope, where the dip slopes of the anticline are steepest. Although landslide activity has been evident in recent years, the extent of the landslides is relatively small compared to the volume of the reservoir, and even a potential collapse is unlikely to cause a significant displacement wave or damage to the dam. In contrast to Mingachevir area, the landslide on the cliff above the Shamkir Reservoir exhibited no significant ground displacement.