- 1AXA, Group Risk Management, Paris, France (hugo.rakotoarimanga@axa.com)
- 2Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- 3Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- 4Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Troposphere Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Extra-tropical winter storms are one of the most impactful natural hazards for the European insurance market causing large socio-economic damages.
AXA has been developing stochastic natural hazard models (also called natural catastrophe models) to quantify the impact of such events on its portfolios, including European extra-tropical cyclones. However, the correct representation of windspeeds and their spatial distribution across Europe during a storm is crucial to determine the risk posed by an event. The characterization of uncertainties in natural catastrophe models stemming from the hazard data used and its resolution is crucial to understand their limitations and guide decision-making.
We rely on a novel publicly available dataset of 50 extreme European windstorms for the period 1995–2015 (Flynn et al., 2024; doi:10.5194/essd-2024-298) with wind gust footprints derived consistently from four different datasets with different horizontal resolutions. Risk being a function of hazard, vulnerability and exposure, we set constant vulnerability and portfolio, and we quantify the range of uncertainties in the reproduction of historical insured losses stemming from the sole hazard component. We compare the losses derived from AXA’s model to the range of losses derived from this novel extreme windstorms dataset.
How to cite: Rakotoarimanga, H., Meynadier, R., Messori, G., and Pinto, J. G.: Multi-model assessment of hazard uncertainties in a European windstorm NatCat model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10733, 2025.
