Manifesting tipping points in pro-environmental behaviour for climate change mitigation

Achieving ambitious climate change targets, such as limiting global warming to 1.5°C, requires both political and social determination. Bottom-up pro-environmentalist behaviours can facilitate crossing social tipping points (STPs), resulting in new social norms with lower impact on global warming. While the passing of  STPs has been described qualitatively, it remains poorly understood how the climate benefits of this phenomenon can be quantified. 
Here, we introduce a stylised system dynamics model that couples socio-ecological contagion with global warming via greenhouse gas emission pathways to estimate the impact of crossing social tipping points on greenhouse gas mitigation and global warming. . This is explored through two examples of bottom-up and top-down mitigation interventions.
Results indicate that a STP could be crossed before 2050. While neither bottom-up nor top-down interventions alone are likely to achieve the 1.5°C target, their combined effect significantly reduces overshoot. This represents a significant step towards understanding how both bottom-up and top-down interventions can be harnessed to mitigate global warming. Our research underscores the importance of bottom-up pro-environmental movements, emphasizing their crucial role in not only reducing personal carbon footprints but also alleviating the burden on technological top-down interventions. This evidence of the benefits of promoting socio-ecological contagion should bolster the determination of individuals and community grassroots groups. Additionally, it should encourage top-down interventions to acknowledge and support the complementary role of collective action.