Warming rivers accelerate the permafrost thaw and thermokarst landslide development in the Tibetan Plateau

Permafrost collapse features (PCFs) have been increasingly prevalent in permafrost regions due to the warming climate, yet their drivers remain less understood. This study leverages high-quality datasets of PCFs and water systems, along with a physically-based permafrost model, to investigate the relationships between water system dynamics and PCF development. We found a large amount of the PCF is directly linked to water systems (rivers and lakes). These water-linked PCFs are primarily driven by a warming-wetting climate and are accelerated near waterbodies due to the heating impact of water on adjacent permafrost. Simulations at a representative permafrost river section indicate a ~2 °C higher mean annual ground temperature and a significantly thicker active layer in river-controlled permafrost compared to air-controlled permafrost, facilitating the formation of PCFs. In response to climate changes, the rivers on the Tibetan Plateau are generally warming and widening, substantially accelerating the surrounding permafrost thaw and increasing the frequency of PCFs along rivers, thereby increasing river sediment flux, threatening infrastructure safety, and accelerating the land-to-river carbon transport.