Crop Yield Forecasting in the Subseasonal Timescale: Case Study of the Blue Nile Basin

The Blue Nile Basin, shared by Ethiopia and Sudan, is a region of significant agricultural importance, supporting the livelihoods of millions who rely on its resources for farming. However, this area faces critical challenges linked to climate change, including rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns, which lead to increased crop yield variability. These factors have increased the unpredictability of farming, making it difficult for farmers to plan planting, irrigation, and harvesting schedules effectively. Moreover, the growing population in the Blue Nile region further intensifies the pressure on agricultural systems to produce sufficient food. These challenges highlight the pressing need for crop yield forecasts to enhance agricultural planning, ensure resource efficiency, and strengthen food security in this vulnerable region.

This research aims to address these challenges by adopting crop yield forecasts at a subseasonal timescale, integrating process-based crop models into a high-resolution atmospheric simulation framework. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, coupled with the Noah-MP land surface model, is used to simulate land-atmosphere interactions, including soil moisture, temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. The output from the WRF-NoahMP system is then fed into a process-based crop model to simulate crop growth and estimate yields.

The study seeks to produce an accurate model capable of reproducing water availability and crop yields in the Blue Nile region, considering the limited availability of observational data, and to compare the performance of the process-based crop model against traditional statistical approaches. By providing early warning signals for potential yield fluctuations, this research offers practical tools for improving agricultural decision-making. The findings have implications not only for farmers and policymakers in the Blue Nile Basin but also for regions facing similar climate-induced challenges, paving the way for adaptive strategies in a rapidly changing global environment.