Connect, adapt, overcome: Informing energy systems modeling with future climate projections in Switzerland

The energy transition is a main pillar of climate mitigation strategies in countries around the world, including Switzerland. According to the International Energy Agency, renewable energy capacity has doubled worldwide since 2015, now accounting for 30% of total power generation. This capacity is projected to triple by 2030 compared to 2023 levels. Such expansion requires a comprehensive long-term planning that strives for resilience and accounts for risks, including those posed by a changing and variable climate. However, the current planning of energy systems often lacks integration of future climate information. Many of these planning processes consider minimal climate data, typically covering only a few historical representative weather years. To future-proof the energy transition, an interdisciplinary approach is essential to bridge this gap.

With this goal in mind, we design climate-driven projections for hydropower, solar energy, wind power and energy demand in Switzerland, based on existing research and energy systems modelers' needs. Different datasets are derived, spanning 2020 to 2050 and covering various representative concentration pathways (RCPs). . We leverage high-resolution regional climate model simulations from the EURO-CORDEX archive that include transient aerosols and bias-correct the relevant variables using CERRA and CERRA-Land reanalysis data. The modeling pipeline harnesses open-source tools, such as GSEE and windpowerlib, along with technical specifications provided by energy systems modelers, to convert the processed climate data into the desired energy quantities. 

This framework is collaborative and flexible, allowing for the co-design of scenarios and the incorporation of expert knowledge to assess climate change impacts on energy systems and  produce accurate input time series for energy systems modeling in Switzerland.