- 1Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK (eleanor.burke@metoffice.gov.uk)
- 2Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- 3Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- 4CICERO International Center for Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
- 5School of GeoSciences and National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Recent studies suggest that the northern terrestrial permafrost region was a weak CO2 sink during the period 2000-2020. Future model projections remain highly uncertain – will the region remain a sink or become a source of CO2? And, if it becomes a source, when? Here we use a novel probabilistic framework PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions) constrained with observations to quantify a range of plausible pathways. Included are uncertainties in the global temperature response to emissions which are combined with uncertainties in spatial climate response to the global temperature change. This information is used to provide driving data for a range of JULES (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) configurations all of which include a representation of permafrost carbon to investigate the ecosystem carbon balance in the northern high latitudes.
How to cite: Burke, E., Varney, R., Hooke, D., Steinert, N., Smallman, L., Jones, C., Munday, G., and Mathison, C.: Northern high latitude ecosystem carbon balance under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11574, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11574, 2025.
