Enhancing the Simulation and Prediction of Extreme Temperature and Water Vapor in a Warming Climate Using a High-Resolution Earth System Model

Extreme weather events, such as extreme temperatures, water vapor transport, and the resulting extreme precipitation, have been occurring with increasing frequency and are projected to intensify further in a warming climate. Understanding how these events respond to climate change is critically important. Numerical models serve as essential tools for uncovering the mechanisms behind these phenomena, with spatial resolution being one of the key challenges. Leveraging advanced supercomputing resources, we have recently made significant advancements in developing high-resolution Earth system models based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM), featuring a 25 km atmospheric resolution and a 10 km oceanic resolution. Compared to the commonly used CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, the high-resolution Earth system model demonstrates substantial improvements in reproducing extreme weather events, thereby greatly enhancing the confidence in future projections.