Predictability of Rapid Sea Ice Loss Events in CESM2 model

The decline in summer Arctic sea ice extent that has been underway for several decades is set to continue until summer Arctic sea ice disappears completely by the middle of the century, according to the latest climate projections. Based on observations and these climate model projections, the rate at which sea ice is retreating is not linear: the decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover is marked by periods of abrupt sea ice decline.
Specifically, it has been suggested that these rapid ice loss events (RILEs) will become a frequent phenomenon in the coming decades. The causes of such events remain poorly understood and we are still unable to reliably predict their evolution. By running sensitivity simulations with the CESM2 model, we aim to investigate the predictability of RILEs and the factors contributing to their onset. Simulations initialized in the year of the event demonstrate predictive skill, whereas those initialized one to two years prior exhibit limited predictive capability. Additional simulations are designed to explore the role of the sea ice mean state and previous oceanic conditions in driving these events.